Chart #2 (switch to men's chart)

compiled by Jack Pfeifer (as of May 7)

The picture has become a little bit clearer since our initial stab at handicapping the 2013 national championships a month ago. Here’s our best guesses as to what might happen in Des Moines in late June, with World Championships berths on the line for the first 3 eligibles (not all events will end up full).

You will note that some athletes are differentiated by color. If they are in red, that means that they have achieved the A-standard required to compete in Moscow. If they are in blue, that means they have the B-standard. Go here for the official list of A&B standards and what the two categories mean.

You will also find 7 women who are listed in capital letters. That means they are in possession of a “wild card”: the U.S. can enter 3 others in addition to them. As wild cards, USATF requires that they compete in the national championships, but not necessarily in their qualifying event, and they don’t need to make the final, just compete.

The picks:

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Jeter and Bartoletta were 1-2 in the OT. With her WC wild card, however, will Jeter skip this and focus on the deuce? Pierre, formerly Haitian, had a strong indoor season.
2. Tianna Bartoletta (Saucony)
3. Barbara Pierre (Nike)
4. Allyson Felix (Nike)
5. Jeneba Tarmoh (Nike)
6. English Gardner (Oregon)
7. Lauryn Williams (Saucony)
8. Octavious Freeman (UCF)
9. Alex Anderson (Nike)
10. Mandy White (Nike)


Jeter is the last American to beat Felix at this distance, at the ’11 Weltklasse. With the Oly gold finally hers, Felix has turf to defend. Collegian Duncan is the formidable new kid on the block.
1. Allyson Felix (Nike)
2. Carmelita Jeter (Nike)
3. Kimberlyn Duncan (LSU)
4. Bianca Knight (adidas)
5. Octavious Freeman (UCF)
6. Shalonda Solomon (Reebok)
8. Kamaria Brown (Texas A&M)
9. Porscha Lucas (Saucony)
10. Cierra White (Texas Tech)


Hastings and the 33-year-old Wineberg, shut out of the Olympic team, hope to make amends after good indoor showings. Gold medalist SRR, now 28, has been making national teams since she was 17.
1. Sanya Richards-Ross (Nike)
2. Natasha Hastings (Under Armour)
3. Francena McCorory (adidas)
4. Jessica Beard (adidas)
5. Dee Dee Trotter (Saucony)
6. Mary Wineberg (Brooks)
7. Miki Barber (Nike)
8. Keshia Baker (Saucony)
9. Moushaumi Robinson (unattached)
10. Monica Hargrove (Under Armour)


Montaño, 5th in London, picked up a 600 AR this winter and, a mere 26, shows no signs of slowing. In her rearview mirror she can spot Wilson, who at 18 has won the World Juniors and this winter’s indoor Senior nationals.
1. Alysia Montaño (unattached)
2. Geena Gall (Nike)
3. Alice Schmidt (Nike)
4. Ajee’ Wilson (adidas)
5. Phoebe Wright (Nike)
6. Lea Wallace (Nike)
7. LaTavia Thomas (Nike)
8. Chanelle Price (unattached)
9. Maggie Vessey (New Balance)
10. Laura Roesler (Oregon)


Uceny and Rowbury made the final in London, while Simpson is reigning world champion. Does any nation have a better threesome? Not far back is the New York wunderkind Cain, who hopes to challenge at 16. Martinez is the newest threat, as Uceny recovers from her fall in the OG.
1. JENNY SIMPSON (New Balance)
2. Brenda Martinez (New Balance)
3. Shannon Rowbury (Nike)
4. Gabriele Anderson (Brooks)
5. Kate Grace (Oiselle)
6. Treniere Moser (Nike)
7. Mary Cain (New York HS)
8. Anna Willard (Nike)
9. Morgan Uceny (adidas)
10. Sarah Brown (New Balance)


Two athletes from the same college team, same event, both on the U.S. Olympic team: break up the Buffaloes! That’s what Franek (Penn State now living in Eugene) will try to do to Coburn/Kipp. They all have to watch Cheever, the newest member of the sub-9:30 club.
1. Emma Coburn (Colorado)
2. Bridget Franek (Oregon TC)
3. Shalaya Kipp (unattached)
4. Jamie Cheever (Team Minnesota)
5. Ashley Higginson (Saucony)
6. Alexi Pappas (unattached)
7. Nicole Bush (unattached)
8. Lindsey Anderson (unattached)
9. Colleen Quigley (Florida State)
10. Amber Henry (Weber State)


Will the five players be back from the dramatic finish in last year’s Trials? In that, Culley surprised Huddle to win, and the unheralded Conley ran down D’Agostino and the fading Lucas to get the final spot on the team.
1. Abbey D’Agostino (Dartmouth)
2. Alisha Williams (adidas)
3. Molly Huddle (Saucony)
4. Chelsea Reilly (Bay Area TC)
5. Kim Conley (New Balance)
6. Julia Lucas (Oregon TC)
7. Julie Culley (Asics)
8. Katie Mackey (Brooks)
9. Brie Felnagle (adidas)
10. Neely Spence Gracey (Hansons)


10,000 METERS
The 10 has become the warmup race for the übermarathoners of today – Flanagan, Goucher, Hastings. Can a trackie like Hasay break in?
1. Shalane Flanagan (Nike)
2. Kara Goucher (Nike)
3. Jordan Hasay (Oregon)
4. Amy Hastings (Brooks)
5. Lisa Uhl (Nike)
6. Laura Thweatt (Boulder TC)
7. Mattie Suver (Boulder TC)
8. Tara Erdmann (Nike)
9. Megan Goethals (Washington)
10. Juliet Bottorff (unattached)


Harper/Wells, 1-2 at the Trials, 2-3 in London. The coveted 3rd spot is up for grabs again. Last year it went to the fan fav Lolo, who this year has been bobsledding, dreaming of Sochi, and hurdling well also.
2. Kellie Wells (Nike)
3. Brianna Rollins (Clemson)
4. Queen Harrison (Saucony)
5. Lolo Jones (Asics)
6. Ginnie Crawford (Nike)
7. Yvette Lewis (unattached)
8. Kristi Castlin (adidas)
9. Christina Manning (unattached)
10. Vashti Thomas (Academy of Art)


Demus is reigning world champ, so will she run this event? Moline, 5th in London with a year left in Tucson, is 7 years younger. Because Demus has a wild card, two other American spots are available.
2. Georganne Moline (Arizona)
3. T’Erea Brown (adidas)
4. Kori Carter (Stanford)
5. Turquoise Thompson (UCLA)
6. Tiffany Williams (unattached)
7. Dalilah Muhammad (unattached)
8. Ellen Wortham (unattached)
9. Cassandra Tate (unattached)
10. Ashley Spencer (Illinois)


Things are very fluid here so far, with few 20K races yet contested. Michta has a 3-year streak as the No. 1 U.S. Ranker and won the indoor 3K easily. (walk picks by Steve Vaitones)
1. Maria Michta (Walk USA)
2. Erin Gray (Bowerman AC)
3. Miranda Melville (Walk USA)
4. Katie Burnett (unattached)
5. Lauren Forgues (unattached)
6. Teresa Vaill (unattached)
7. Susan Randall (Miami Valley TC)
8. Solomiya Login (SEn Pennsylvania AC)
9. Nicole Bonk (Embry-Riddle)
10. Loretta McGovern (World Class RW)


Barrett was a surprise in Eugene, clearing 6-7 to lose to Lowe on the countback, then a shock in London, 6-8 for the silver. McPherson is the best of the rest.
1. Brigetta Barrett (Arizona)
3. Inika McPherson (unattached)
4. Ty Butts (unattached)
5. Becky Christensen (Riadha)
6. Shanay Briscoe (Texas)
7. Krystal Schade (Alabama)
8. Liz Patterson (Asics)
9. Maya Pressley (Auburn)
10. Priscilla Frederick (New York AC)


The Suhr questions are, how high will she start and how high will she go? After her, the scrap is on for the other spots, including two others from far upstate New York, Saxer and Keppler.
1. Jenn Suhr (adidas)
2. Kylie Hutson (Nike)
3. Becky Holliday (unattached)
4. Lacy Janson (Nike)
5. Mary Saxer (NYAC)
6. Janice Keppler (unattached)
7. April Steiner-Bennett (Asics)
8. Morgann LeLeux (Georgia)
9. Katy Viuf (unattached)
10. April Kubishta (unattached)


If Reese can stay on the board, no one can touch her. But then, she doesn’t have to, because she has a wild card. It may take a 23-footer to make the team.
2. Janay DeLoach Soukup (Nike)
3. Tori Bowie (unattached)
4. Whitney Gipson (Nike)
5. Chelsea Hayes (Nike)
6. Vashti Thomas (Academy of Art)
7. Tori Polk (unattached)
8. Andrea Geubelle (Kansas)
9. Funmi Jimoh (Nike)
10. Kylie Price (UCLA)


For the Americans, can anyone make the B? The Jayhawk Geubelle missed by an inch indoors. Smock got to London that way in ’12, but the standards are farther this year.
1. Andrea Geubelle (Kansas)
2. Amanda Smock (NYAC)
3. Crystal Manning (CVE)
4. Yvette Lewis (unattached)
5. Ciarra Brewer (Florida)
6. Toni Smith (unattached)
7. LaQue Moen-Davis (Texas A&M)
8. April Sinkler (unattached)
9. Blessing Ufodiama (unattached)
10. Tori Franklin (Michigan State)


Camarena-Williams, bronze delight in Daegu, must overcome back surgery. There is a reservoir of 60-footers waiting in the wings.
1. Michelle Carter (Nike)
2. Tia Brooks (Oklahoma)
3. Jill Camarena-Williams (New York AC)
4. Felisha Johnson (Indiana State)
5. Christina Hillman (Iowa State)
6. Jeneva McCall (New York AC)
7. Kearsten Peoples (Missouri)
8. Alyssa Hasslen (Arizona)
9. Brittany Smith (Illinois State)
10. Becky O’Brien (unattached)


No, this is not the submasters DT, even though SBT (33), Powell (36), Thurmond (36) and Lewis-Smallwood (34) are in that age range. They are all watching Vaughan, the teenager at A&M, and newcomer Ashley.
1. Aretha Thurmond (Nike)
2. Gia Lewis-Smallwood (Nike)
3. Whitney Ashley (unattached)
4. Shelbi Vaughan (Texas A&M)
5. Liz Podominick (RNF)
6. Stephanie Brown Trafton (Nike)
7. Anna Jelmini (Arizona State)
8. Summer Pierson (unattached)
9. Beth Rohl (Michigan State)
10. Jere’ Summers (unattached)


Bingson opened the season with a PR, as American women get more comfortable by the year beyond 70 meters.
1. Amber Campbell (Nike)
2. Jessica Cosby-Toruga (Nike)
3. Amanda Bingson (Nike)
4. Gwen Berry (New York AC)
5. Jeneva McCall (New York AC)
6. Chelsea Cassulo (Arizona State)
7. Amy Haapanen (unattached)
8. Britney Henry (AST)
9. Ashley Harbin (unattached)
10. Loree Smith (New York AC)


AR holder Patterson is in rehab and may not be ready this campaign. There’s probably just one team spot available, thanks to an A-standard of 203-5.
1. Brittany Borman (unattached)
2. Brianna Bain (Stanford)
3. Rachel Yurkovich (Nike)
4. Kim Hamilton (Nike)
5. Leigh Petranoff (TZone)
6. Kara Patterson (Asics)
7. Jenna Higgins (Mount Mercy)
8. Alicia DeShasier (Nike)
9. Avionne Allgood (Oklahoma)
10. Lauren Kenney (Penn State)


The venerable Hyleas Fountain, 32, may be done with the multi. In her wake is a raft of 6000-types. The A is 6100.
1. Chantae McMillian (unattached)
2. Sharon Day (Asics)
3. Bettie Wade (Nike)
4. Barbara Nwaba (unattached)
5. Abbie Stechschulte (unattached)
6. Lindsay Lettow (unattached)
7. Kiani Profit (unattached)
8. Aisha Adams (unattached)
9. Ryann Krais (unattached)
10. Sami Spenner (Nebraska/Omaha)