Chart #2 (switch to women's chart)

compiled by Dave Johnson (as of May 6)

The picture has become a little bit clearer since our initial stab at handicapping the 2013 national championships a month ago. Here’s our best guesses as to what might happen in Des Moines in late June, with World Championships berths on the line for the first 3 eligibles (not all events will end up full, of course).

You will note that some athletes are differentiated by color. If they are in red, that means that they have achieved the A-standard required to compete in Moscow. If they are in blue, that means they have the B-standard. Go here for the official list of A&B standards and what the two categories mean.

You will also find 6 men who are listed in capital letters. That means they are in possession of a “wild card”: the U.S. can enter 3 others in addition to them because they are either the reigning world champ or Diamond League champ.

As wild cards, USATF requires that they compete in the national championships, but not necessarily in their qualifying event, and they don’t need to make the final, just compete.

The by-event picks:

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Rodgers and Bailey are the relative up-and-comers, Patton the old-timer who’s getting better with age. All can challenge the three favorites, who are also long on big-time experience. Gay’s Kingston run has moved him back atop the heap.
1. Tyson Gay (adidas)
2. Justin Gatlin (Xtep)
3. Walter Dix (Nike)
4. Mike Rodgers (Nike)
5. Ryan Bailey (Nike)
6. Doc Patton (Nike)
7. Trell Kimmons (Nike)
8. Harry Adams (Auburn)
9. Isiah Young (Mississippi)
10. Jeff Demps (Star A)


Who will run will depend on who makes the century team and who gets nicked up while trying. Gay hasn’t run a 200 in multi-round meets since ’08, so is omitted for now.
1. Wallace Spearmon (Saucony)
2. Walter Dix (Nike)
3. Ameer Webb (Texas A&M)
4. Isiah Young (Mississippi)
5. Jeremy Dodson (Boulder TC)
6. Maurice Mitchell (Nike)
7. Calesio Newman (unattached)
8. Doc Patton (Nike)
9. Harry Adams (Auburn)
10. Ryan Bailey (Nike)


Merritt should be back to form, but can he and veteran Wariner hold off the pack of collegiate youngsters?
1. LaShawn Merritt (Nike)
2. Tony McQuay (adidas)
3. Jeremy Wariner (adidas)
4. Bryshon Nellum (USC)
5. Mike Berry (Oregon)
6. Josh Mance (unattached)
7. Calvin Smith (adidas)
8. James Harris (Florida State)
9. Manteo Mitchell (Nike)
10. Angelo Taylor (Nike)


Solomon dethroned Symmonds as top American last year, but was that a 1-year thing? And was Sowinski’s indoor breakthrough as much a revelation of things to come as we see here?
1. Duane Solomon (Saucony)
2. Nick Symmonds (Nike)
3. Erik Sowinski (unattached)
4. Khadevis Robinson (Nike)
5. Robby Andrews (adidas)
6. Andrew Wheating (Oregon TC)
7. Ryan Martin (Asics)
8. Elijah Greer (Oregon)
9. Charles Jock (Nike)
10. Brandon Johnson (Nike)


Lagat and Lomong could wind up running the 5000 only. Wheating and Andrews might be in the 800 only. Decisions might be made only during the four days in Des Moines. Galen Rupp is the fastest American so far this year but obviously won’t run here.
1. Matthew Centrowitz (Nike Oregon)
2. Leo Manzano (Nike)
3. Bernard Lagat (Nike)
4. Lopez Lomong (Nike)
5. Andrew Wheating (Oregon TC)
6. Will Leer (Nike)
7. Andy Bayer (Indiana)
8. Robby Andrews (adidas)
9. Garrett Heath (Saucony)
10. Ryan Hill (NC State)


Jager burst on the scene last year with Cabral being the rare collegian to make an international championship distance team. They would seem to have locks on two spots.
1. Evan Jager (Nike)
2. Donn Cabral (Nike)
3. Dan Huling (Nike)
4. Ben Bruce (adidas)
5. Cory Leslie (unattached)
6. DeSean Turner (Team Indiana)
7. Cameron Bean (Zap)
8. Donnie Cowart (W Ex)
9. Andrew Poore (unattached)
10. Kyle Alcorn (Nike)


With two days rest between the 10 and 5 there may be a good many people who run both, and perhaps without drastic effects if the 10 is not particularly difficult.
1. Bernard Lagat (Nike)
2. Galen Rupp (Nike Oregon)
3. Lopez Lomong (Nike)
4. Matt Tegenkamp (Nike)
5. Andrew Bumbalough (Nike)
6. Ben True (Saucony)
7. Chris Derrick (Nike)
8. Hassan Mead (Oregon TC)
9. Eric Jenkins (Northeastern)
10. Dan Huling (Nike)


10,000 METERS
True and Derrick broke through during the cross country season and could be ready to make a Worlds 10K team.
1. Galen Rupp (Nike Oregon)
2. Matt Tegenkamp (Nike)
3. Ben True (Saucony)
4. Chris Derrick (Nike)
5. Dathan Ritzenhein (Nike Oregon)
6. Ryan Vail (unattached)
7. Aaron Braun (adidas)
8. Chris Solinsky (Nike)
9. Brent Vaughn (Nike)
10. Bobby Mack (Reebok)


WR holder Merritt had one of the great hurdle seasons ever; reigning world champ Richardson is solid. Then it’s a crapshoot. Can Oliver come back or will there be another Jeff Porter with a race of a lifetime? Any way you cut it, probably the toughest U.S. squad to make.
1. Aries Merritt (Nike)
3. David Oliver (Nike)
4. Ryan Wilson (Saucony)
5. Jeff Porter (Nike)
6. Antwon Hicks (TruFit)
7. David Payne (unattached)
8. Kevin Craddock (unattached)
9. Omo Osaghae (adidas)
10. Spencer Adams (Clemson)


Tinsley proved to be the best of the Americans in London, but this year will show his level of consistency. Behind him is an aging trio, any of whom could still be #1 or fall off the cliff.
1. Michael Tinsley (adidas)
2. Angelo Taylor (Nike)
3. Bershawn Jackson (Nike)
4. Kerron Clement (Nike)
5. Johnny Dutch (Nike)
6. Jeshua Anderson (Nike)
7. Justin Gaymon (unattached)
8. Reggie Wyatt (USC)
9. Michael Stigler (Kansas)
10. Steven White (North Texas State)


A rare youth movement has taken hold, with 6 likely top-10 finishers under age 25. At 20, Barron won the last three times as a teenager. (walk predictions by Steve Vaitones)
1. Trevor Barron (New York AC)
2. Patrick Stroupe (unattached)
3. Tim Seaman (New York AC)
4. Nick Christie (Missouri Baptist)
5. Jonathan Hallman (World Class RW)
6. Alex Chavez (unattached)
7. John Nunn (unattached)
8. Michael Mannozzi (Shore AC)
9. Dan Serianni (World Class RW)
10. Cody Risch (Cornerstone)


The first three make a very solid trio and could finish in any order. But any mistakes on their part opens the door to a number of collegians who could get hot on the day.
2. Erik Kynard (Kansas State)
3. Dusty Jonas (Nike)
4. Marcus Jackson (Mississippi State)
5. Ricky Robertson (Mississippi)
6. Ronnie Black (Virginia Tech)
7. Geoff Davis (Purdue)
8. Keith Moffatt (Nike)
9. Montez Blair (Cornell)
10. Nick Ross (unattached)


Kendricks got a 19-footer at Texas, but how much of that is his future and how much was the ideal conditions which made for so many PRs? And are either Irwin or Whitt the better collegiate jumpers, now ready to make the team?
1. Brad Walker (Nike)
2. Jordan Scott (PowerBar)
3. Andrew Irwin (Arkansas)
4. Sam Kendricks (Mississippi)
5. Jack Whitt (Oral Roberts)
6. John Prader (Cal Poly/SLO)
7. Jeremy Scott (Nike)
8. Mark Hollis (unattached)
9. Jake Blankenship (Tennessee)
10. Cale Simmons (Air Force)


Phillips has the wildcard, so will he do anything more than just put in an appearance? The bet here is that if he’s healthy enough to show, he’ll be healthy enough to jump seriously. Will Eaton compete the day after the decathlon ends, we’re betting no?
1. Will Claye (Nike)
3. Christian Taylor (Li Ning)
4. George Kitchens (Goldcal)
5. Jeremy Hicks (unattached)
6. Marquis Dendy (Florida)
7. Mike Hartfield (Ohio State)
8. Jarvis Gotch (South Plains JC)
9. Jarrion Lawson (Arkansas)
10. Reindell Cole (unattached)


The world’s two best TJers would seem to have locks on the top spots. Is Wilson still in the hunt? Is indoor champ Honeycutt a new hopeful?
2. Will Claye (Nike)
3. Bryce Lamb (Texas Tech)
4. Chris Carter (unattached)
5. Chris Benard (CVE)
6. Josh Honeycutt (Phoenix Elite)
7. Omar Craddock (Florida)
8. Aarik Wilson (unattached)
9. James Jenkins (St. Louis Blues)
10. Rafeeq Curry (Shore AC)


Still one of America’s best international events, even with the retirement of Adam Nelson. With a full field of spinners, someone—or more—is bound to make a disastrous mistake. Cantwell has been off form early and Crouser is suddenly a 69-footer.
1. REESE HOFFA (New York AC)
2. Ryan Whiting (Nike)
3. Christian Cantwell (Nike)
4. Cory Martin (Nike)
5. Ryan Crouser (Texas)
6. Kurt Roberts (Nike)
7. Jordan Clarke (Arizona State)
8. Joe Kovacs (unattached)
9. Zack Lloyd (unattached)
10. Eric Werskey (unattached)


Anyone can win this, and early-season form seems to ride the winds. But come the selection meet, Rome is always in the hunt. Who gets left home?
1. Jason Young (Nike)
2. Lance Brooks (Nike)
3. Jarred Rome (Nike)
4. Casey Malone (Nike)
5. Luke Bryant (unattached)
6. Jared Schuurmans (WTA)
7. Mason Finley (unattached)
8. Rodney Brown (LSU)
9. Russ Winger (Asics)
10. Ian Waltz (New York AC)


Johnson and Kruger seem to have separated themselves from the rest. Loftin is in PR territory this year, but Cralle had a great Olympic Trials. Is that his new level of ability or will that remain his peak?
1. Kibwé Johnson (New York AC)
2. A.G. Kruger (Nike)
3. Drew Loftin (OtterBox)
4. Chris Cralle (unattached)
5. Jake Freeman (Nike)
6. Andy Fryman (Mjolnir)
7. Colin Dunbar (unattached)
8. Alec Faldermeyer (UCLA)
9. Garland Porter (unattached)
10. Justin Welch (unattached)


Who’s left? Kinsley and Furey have yet to throw this year. Collegians seem ready to crowd out the veterans, but will they have the right stuff at the right time?
1. Sam Humphreys (Texas A&M)
2. Cyrus Hostetler (Oregon TC)
3. Craig Kinsley (unattached)
4. Sean Furey (Mizuno)
5. Tim Glover (Illinois State)
6. Sam Crouser (Oregon)
7. Andy Fahringer (unattached)
8. Corey White (unattached)
9. Riley Dolezal (TND)
10. Ben Lincoln (Wake Forest)


The last two international champions, and then a guessing game as to who will be 3rd and 4th. And will the 3rd and 4th finishers score well enough (the A is 8200) to make standard?
1. Ashton Eaton (Oregon TC)
3. Kevin Lazas (Arkansas)
4. Gunnar Nixon (unattached)
5. Curtis Beach (Duke)
6. Ryan Harlan (unattached)
7. Garrett Scantling (Georgia)
8. Isaac Murphy (Texas)
9. Miller Moss (unattached)
10. Gray Horn (unattached)