Chart #1 (switch to men's chart)

compiled by Jack Pfeifer (as of April 4)

With the professional season being what it now is, with very little meaningful activity before May and June roll around, this initial stab at handicapping the 2013 national championships is very much based on past form. With that in mind, here’s our best guesses as to what might happen in Des Moines in late June, with World Championships berths on the line for the first 3 eligibles (not all events will end up full).

You will note that some athletes are differentiated by color. If they are in red, that means that they have achieved the A-standard required to compete in Moscow. If they are in blue, that means they have the B-standard. Go here for the official list of A&B standards and what the two categories mean.

You will also find 7 women who are listed in capital letters. That means they are in possession of a “wild card”: the U.S. can enter 3 others in addition to them. As wild cards, USATF requires that they compete in the national championships, but not necessarily in their qualifying event, and they don’t need to make the final, just compete.

The picks:

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Jeter and Bartoletta (née Madison) were 1-2 in the OT. With her WC wild card, however, will Jeter skip this and focus on the deuce? Pierre, formerly Haitian, had a strong indoor season.
2. Tianna Bartoletta (Saucony)
3. Barbara Pierre (Nike)
4. Allyson Felix (Nike)
5. Jeneba Tarmoh (Nike)
6. English Gardner (Oregon)
7. Aurieyall Scott (UCF)
8. Lauryn Williams (unattached)
9. Alex Anderson (Nike)
10. Marshevet Hooker (unattached)


Jeter is the last American to beat Felix at this distance, at the ’11 Weltklasse. With the Oly gold finally hers, Felix has turf to defend.
1. Allyson Felix (Nike)
2. Carmelita Jeter (Nike)
3. Kimberlyn Duncan (LSU)
4. Bianca Knight (adidas)
5. Octavious Freeman (UCF)
6. Shalonda Solomon (Reebok)
8. LaShaunte’a Moore (Nike)
9. Porscha Lucas (Saucony)
10. Leslie Cole (RWU)


Hastings and the 33-year-old Wineberg, shut out of the Olympic team, hope to make amends after good indoor showings. Gold medalist SRR, now 28, has been making national teams since she was 17.
1. Sanya Richards-Ross (Nike)
2. Francena McCorory (adidas)
3. Natasha Hastings (Under Armour)
4. Mary Wineberg (Brooks)
5. Ebonie Floyd (unattached)
6. Dee Dee Trotter (Saucony)
7. Jessica Beard (adidas)
8. Keshia Baker (Saucony)
9. Ashley Spencer (Ilinois)
10. Monica Hargrove (Under Armour)


Montaño, 5th in London, picked up a 600 AR this winter and, a mere 26, shows no signs of slowing. In her rearview mirror she can spot Wilson, who at 18 has won the World Juniors and this winter’s indoor Senior nationals.
1. Alysia Montaño (unattached)
2. Geena Gall (Nike)
3. Alice Schmidt (Nike)
4. Ajee’ Wilson (adidas)
5. Erica Moore (Nike)
6. Molly Beckwith (Saucony)
7. Maggie Vessey (New Balance)
8. Phoebe Wright (Nike)
9. LaTavia Thomas (Nike)
10. Chanelle Price (unattached)


Uceny and Rowbury made the final in London, while Simpson is reigning world champion. Does any nation have a better threesome? Not far back is the New York wunderkind Cain, who hopes to challenge at 16.
1. Morgan Uceny (adidas)
2. Shannon Rowbury (Nike)
3. JENNY SIMPSON (New Balance)
4. Anna Willard (Nike)
5. Gabriele Anderson (Brooks)
6. Brenda Martinez (New Balance)
7. Mary Cain (New York HS)
8. Kate Grace (Oiselle)
9. Treniere Moser (Nike)
10. Sarah Brown (New Balance)


Two athletes from the same college team, same event, both on the U.S. Olympic team: break up the Buffaloes! That’s what Franek (Penn State now living in Eugene) will try to do to Coburn/Kipp.
1. Emma Coburn (Colorado)
2. Bridget Franek (Oregon TC)
3. Shalaya Kipp (Colorado)
4. Lisa Aguilera (Nike)
5. Ashley Higginson (Saucony)
6. Alexi Pappas (unattached)
7. Stephanie Garcia (New Balance)
8. Sara Hall (Asics)
9. Sarah Pease (unattached)
10. Kara June (adidas)


Will the five players be back from the dramatic finish in last year’s Trials? In that, Culley surprised Huddle to win, and the unheralded Conley ran down D’Agostino and the fading Lucas to get the final spot on the team.
1. Molly Huddle (Saucony)
2. Abbey D’Agostino (Dartmouth)
3. Alisha Williams (adidas)
4. Julie Culley (Asics)
5. Julia Lucas (Oregon TC)
6. Kim Conley (New Balance)
7. Chelsea Reilly (Bay Area TC)
8. Jordan Hasay (Oregon)
9. Brie Felnagle (adidas)
10. Emily Infeld (Nike)


10,000 METERS
The 10 has become the warmup race for the übermarathoners of today – Flanagan, Goucher, Hastings, Davila, Bawcom. Can a trackie break in?
1. Shalane Flanagan (Nike)
2. Kara Goucher (Nike)
3. Amy Hastings (Brooks)
4. Molly Huddle (Saucony)
5. Lisa Uhl (Nike)
6. Desiree Davila (Hansons)
7. Tara Erdmann (Nike)
8. Janet Bawcom (Nike)
9. Deborah Maier (Cal)
10. Magdalena Lewy-Boulet (Saucony)


Harper/Wells, 1-2 at the Trials, 2-3 in London. The coveted 3rd spot is up for grabs again. Last year it went to the fan fav Lolo, who this year has been bobsledding, dreaming of Sochi.
2. Kellie Wells (Nike)
3. Brianna Rollins (Clemson)
4. Ginnie Crawford (Nike)
5. Yvette Lewis (unattached)
6. Queen Harrison (Saucony)
7. Kristi Castlin (adidas)
8. Christina Manning (unattached)
9. Lolo Jones (Asics)
10. Vashti Thomas (Academy of Art)


Demus is reigning world champ, so will she run this event? Moline, 5th in London with a year left in Tucson, is 7 years younger. Because Demus has a wild card, two other American spots are available.
2. Georganne Moline (Arizona)
3. T’Erea Brown (adidas)
4. Turquoise Thompson (UCLA)
5. Tiffany Williams (unattached)
6. Dalilah Muhammad (unattached)
7. Ellen Wortham (unattached)
8. Nicole Leach (Nike)
9. Christine Spence (unattached)
10. Jernail Hayes (unattached)


Things are very fluid here so far, with few 20K races yet contested. Michta has a 3-year streak as the No. 1 U.S. Ranker and won the indoor 3K easily. (walk picks by Steve Vaitones)
1. Maria Michta (Walk USA)
2. Erin Gray (Bowerman AC)
3. Miranda Melville (Walk USA)
4. Katie Burnett (unattached)
5. Jill Cobb (Miami Valley TC)
6. Teresa Vaill (unattached)
7. Solomiya Login (SEn Pennsylvania AC)
8. Susan Randall (Miami Valley TC)
9. Nicole Bonk (Embry Riddle)
10. Stephanie Casey (unattached)


Barrett was a surprise in Eugene, clearing 6-7 to lose to Lowe on the countback, then a shock in London, 6-8 for the silver. McPherson is the best of the rest.
1. Brigetta Barrett (Arizona)
3. Inika McPherson (unattached)
4. Ty Butts (East Carolina)
5. Becky Christensen (Riadha)
6. Shanay Briscoe (Texas)
7. Krystal Schade (Alabama)
8. Liz Patterson (Asics)
9. Megan Seidl (Wisconsin RRT)
10. Priscilla Frederick (New York AC)


The Suhr questions are, how high will she start and how high will she go (World Record?). After her, the scrap is on for the other spots, including two others from far upstate New York, Saxer and Keppler.
1. Jenn Suhr (adidas)
2. Becky Holliday (unattached)
3. Lacy Janson (Nike)
4. Mary Saxer (NYAC)
5. Janice Keppler (unattached)
6. Kylie Hutson (Nike)
7. April Steiner-Bennett (Asics)
8. Morgann LeLeux (Georgia)
9. Katy Viuf (unattached)
10. April Kubishta (unattached)


If Reese can stay on the board, no one can touch her. But then, she doesn’t have to, because she has a wild card. It may take a 23-footer to make the team.
2. Janay DeLoach Soukup (Nike)
3. Whitney Gipson (Nike)
4. Chelsea Hayes (Nike)
5. Andrea Geubelle (Kansas)
6. Funmi Jimoh (Nike)
7. Brianna Glenn (NYAC)
8. Vashti Thomas (Academy of Art)
9. Tori Bowie (unattached)
10. Hyleas Fountain (Nike)


For the Americans, can anyone make the B? The Jayhawk Geubelle missed by an inch indoors. Smock got to London that way in ’12, but the standards are farther this year.
1. Andrea Geubelle (Kansas)
2. Amanda Smock (NYAC)
3. Crystal Manning (CVE)
4. Yvette Lewis (unattached)
5. Ciarra Brewer (Florida)
6. Sheena Gordon (unattached)
7. LaQue Moen-Davis (Texas A&M)
8. Toni Smith (unattached)
9. Blessing Ufodiama (unattached)
10. Jessica Ubanyionwu (unattached)


Camarena-Williams, bronze delight in Daegu, must overcome back surgery. There is a reservoir of 60-footers waiting in the wings.
1. Michelle Carter (Nike)
2. Tia Brooks (Oklahoma)
3. Jill Camarena-Williams (New York AC)
4. Sarah Stevens-Walker (Shore AC)
5. Christina Hillman (Iowa State)
6. Jeneva McCall (New York AC)
7. Kearsten Peoples (Missouri)
8. Alyssa Hasslen (Arizona)
9. Brittany Smith (Illinois State)
10. Tiffany Howard (unattached)


No, this is not the submasters DT, even though SBT (33), Powell (36), Thurmond (36) and Lewis-Smallwood (34) are in that age range. They are all watching Vaughan, the teenager at A&M.
1. Stephanie Brown Trafton (Nike)
2. Aretha Thurmond (Nike)
3. Gia Lewis-Smallwood (Nike)
4. Shelbi Vaughan (Texas A&M)
5. Liz Podominick (RNF)
6. Suzy Powell (Asics)
7. Anna Jelmini (Arizona State)
8. Summer Pierson (unattached)
9. Beth Rohl (Michigan State)
10. Jere’ Summers (unattached)


Bingson opened the season with a PR, as American women get more comfortable by the year beyond 70 meters.
1. Amber Campbell (Nike)
2. Jessica Cosby (Nike)
3. Amanda Bingson (Nike)
4. Gwen Berry (New York AC)
5. Jeneva McCall (New York AC)
6. Brittany Smith (Illinois State)
7. Amy Haapanen (unattached)
8. Britney Henry (AST)
9. Brittany Riley (unattached)
10. Loree Smith (New York AC)


AR holder Patterson is in rehab and may not be ready this campaign. There’s probably just one team spot available, thanks to an A-standard of 203-5.
1. Rachel Yurkovich (Nike)
2. Brittany Borman (unattached)
3. Alicia DeShasier (Nike)
4. Kim Hamilton (Nike)
5. Kara Patterson (Asics)
6. Avionne Allgood (Oklahoma)
7. Hannah Carson (Texas Tech)
8. Haley Crouser (Oregon HS)
9. Dana Pounds-Lyon (Nike)
10. Brianna Bain (Stanford)


The venerable Fountain, 32, may be done with the multi. In her wake is a raft of 6000-types. The A is 6100.
1. Chantae McMillian (unattached)
2. Sharon Day (Asics)
3. Bettie Wade (Nike)
4. Barbara Nwaba (unattached)
5. Abbie Stechschulte (unattached)
6. Lindsay Lettow (unattached)
7. Heather Miller (Central Park TC)
8. Chelsea Carrier-Eades (unattached)
9. Ryann Krais (unattached)
10. Hyleas Fountain (Nike)