Chart #4 (switch to men's chart)

compiled by Jack Pfeifer (as of June 19)

With the first U.S. Diamond League meet in the books and the NCAA Regionals done, the picture has become lots clearer. So here’s our best guesses as to what might happen in Des Moines in late June, with World Championships berths on the line for the first 3 eligibles (not all events will end up full).

You will note that some athletes are differentiated by color. If they are in red, that means that they have achieved the A-standard required to compete in Moscow. If they are in blue, that means they have the B-standard. Go here for the official list of A&B standards and what the two categories mean.

You will also find 7 women who are listed in capital letters. That means they are in possession of a “wild card”: the U.S. can enter 3 others in addition to them. As wild cards, USATF requires that they compete in the national championships, but not necessarily in their qualifying event, and they don’t need to make the final, just compete.

The by-event picks:


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With her WC wild card, Jeter – who is nursing a balky hamstring – is required to run at least one round to claim a spot on the U.S. team. Pierre is a 26-year-old Floridian who formerly ran for Haiti. Tianna Bartoletta, 2nd to Jeter at the ’12 Trials, is sidelined by injury.
1. Barbara Pierre (Nike)
2. English Gardner (Oregon)
3. Octavious Freeman (UCF)
4. Alex Anderson (Nike)
5. Lauryn Williams (Saucony)
6. Chauntae Bayne (unattached)
7. Lekeisha Lawson (unattached)
8. Mandy White (Nike)
9. Miki Barber (Nike)


Jeter is the last American to beat Felix at this distance, at the ’11 Weltklasse. If up to it, she could run the deuce, and thereby keep ahold of her spot in the 100. With the Oly gold finally hers, Felix has turf to defend. Collegians Duncan, Scott and Brown are all contenders.
1. Allyson Felix (Nike)
2. Kimberlyn Duncan (LSU)
3. Shalonda Solomon (Reebok)
4. Kamaria Brown (Texas A&M)
5. Aurieyall Scott (UCF)
6. Bianca Knight (adidas)
7. Alex Anderson (Nike)
8. Lashauntea Moore (Nike)
10. Carmelita Jeter (Nike)


Hastings, shut out of the Olympic team, hopes to make amends after a good indoor showing. Gold medalist SRR, now 28, has been making national teams since she was 17, but she has been slowed by recovery from surgery.
1. Natasha Hastings (Under Armour)
2. Francena McCorory (adidas)
3. Ashley Spencer (Illinois)
4. Jessica Beard (adidas)
5. Dee Dee Trotter (Saucony)
6. Moushaumi Robinson (unattached)
7. Keshia Baker (Saucony)
8. Joanna Atkins (Nike)
9. Sanya Richards-Ross (Nike)
10. Mary Wineberg (NYAC)


Montaño, 5th in London, picked up a 600 AR this winter and, a mere 26, shows no signs of slowing. In her rearview mirror she can spot Wilson, who at 18 has won the World Juniors and this winter’s indoor Senior nationals.
1. Alysia Montaño (Asics)
2. Brenda Martinez (New Balance)
3. Phoebe Wright (adidas)
4. Ajee’ Wilson (adidas)
5. Geena Gall (Nike)
6. Lea Wallace (Nike)
7. LaTavia Thomas (Nike)
8. Chanelle Price (unattached)
9. Heather Kampf (Asics)
10. Laura Roesler (Oregon)


Uceny and Rowbury, both of whom made the final in London, have been slow to come around this spring. Simpson, reigning world champion, has opted to run the 5K. The 17-year-old phenom Cain is the newest threat along with a host of other sub-4:10s.
1. Katie Mackey (Brooks)
2. Mary Cain (New York HS)
3. Treniere Moser (Nike)
4. Shannon Rowbury (Nike)
5. Morgan Uceny (Reebok)
6. Gabriele Anderson (Brooks)
7. Kate Grace (Oiselle)
8. Sarah Brown (New Balance)
9. Nicole Schappert (NYAC)
10. Renee Tomlin (Nike)


With Emma Coburn out with a back injury, Franek – the last American to beat the Coloradan in a steeple, in the 2010 NCAA – becomes the favorite. The former Gopher Cheever has become the 7th sub-9:30 American.
1. Bridget Franek (Oregon TC)
2. Jamie Cheever (Team Minnesota)
3. Nicole Bush (unattached)
4. Stephanie Garcia (New Balance)
5. Ashley Higginson (Saucony)
6. Sara Vaughn (unattached)
7. Carrie Dimoff (Bowerman AC)
8. Amber Henry (Weber State)
9. Aisha Praught (Nike)
10. Shalaya Kipp (Colorado)


Will the five players be back from the dramatic finish in last year’s Trials? In that, Culley surprised Huddle to win, and the unheralded Conley ran down D’Agostino and the fading Lucas to get the final spot on the team. Meanwhile, Moser and Reilly have had impressive PRs.
1. Abbey D’Agostino (Dartmouth)
2. Molly Huddle (Saucony)
3. JENNY SIMPSON (New Balance)
4. Kim Conley (New Balance)
5. Julia Lucas (Oregon TC)
6. Chelsea Reilly (Bay Area TC)
7. Brie Felnagle (adidas)
8. Julie Culley (NJ/NYTC)
9. Treniere Moser (Nike)
10. Amy Hastings (Brooks)


10,000 METERS
The 10 has become the warmup race for the übermarathoners of today – Flanagan, Goucher, Hastings. Can a trackie like Hasay break in?
1. Shalane Flanagan (Nike)
2. Amy Hastings (Brooks)
3. Kara Goucher (Nike)
4. Lisa Uhl (Nike)
5. Jordan Hasay (Oregon)
6. Tara Erdmann (Nike)
7. Megan Goethals (Washington)
8. Emily Sisson (Providence)
9. Juliet Bottorff (Duke)
10. Rebecca Donaghue (unattached)


Harper/Wells, 1-2 at the Trials, 2-3 in London. The coveted 3rd spot is up for grabs again. Last year it went to the fan fav Lolo, who this year has been bobsledding, dreaming of Sochi, and hurdling well also. Rollins, who set the CR in Eugene, is a threat.
2. Brianna Rollins (Clemson)
3. Kellie Wells (Nike)
4. Lolo Jones (Asics)
5. Queen Harrison (Saucony)
6. Ginnie Crawford (Nike)
7. Yvette Lewis (unattached)
8. Vashti Thomas (Academy of Art)
9. Jackie Coward (unattached)
10. Nia Ali (Nike)


Demus, reigning world champ, has been vulnerable this spring. Moline, 5th in London, lost the NCAA final to fellow collegian Carter. Also coming on is the ex-Trojan Muhammad, who has PRed five times this campaign.
1. Kori Carter (Stanford)
2. Georganne Moline (Arizona)
4. T’Erea Brown (adidas)
5. Dalilah Muhammad (unattached)
6. Turquoise Thompson (UCLA)
7. Tiffany Williams (unattached)
8. Kendra Harrison (Clemson)
9. Cassandra Tate (unattached)
10. Christine Spence (adidas)


Things are very fluid here so far, with few 20K races yet contested. Michta has a 3-year streak as the No. 1 U.S. Ranker and won the indoor 3K easily. (walk picks by Steve Vaitones)
1. Maria Michta (Walk USA)
2. Erin Gray (Bowerman AC)
3. Miranda Melville (Walk USA)
4. Katie Burnett (unattached)
5. Lauren Forgues (unattached)
6. Teresa Vaill (unattached)
7. Susan Randall (Miami Valley TC)
8. Solomiya Login (SEn Pennsylvania AC)
9. Nicole Bonk (Embry-Riddle)
10. Loretta McGovern (World Class RW)


Barrett was a surprise in Eugene, clearing 6-7 to lose to Chaunté Lowe on the countback, then a shock in London, 6-8 for the silver. With Lowe on maternity break (her 3rd), McPherson seems next-best.
1. Brigetta Barrett (Arizona)
2. Inika McPherson (unattached)
3. Ty Butts (unattached)
4. Maya Pressley (Auburn)
5. Courtney Anderson (South Florida)
6. Krystal Schade (Alabama)
7. Liz Patterson (Asics)
8. Megan Glisar (South Dakota)
9. Sharon Day (Asics)
10. Priscilla Frederick (NYAC)


The Suhr questions are, how high will she start and how high will she go? After her, the scrap is on for the other spots, including two others from far upstate New York, Saxer and Keppler.
1. Jenn Suhr (adidas)
2. Mary Saxer (NYAC)
3. Kylie Hutson (Nike)
4. Becky Holliday (unattached)
5. Lacy Janson (Nike)
6. Melissa Gergel (Team Pacer)
7. Janice Keppler (unattached)
8. April Steiner-Bennett (Asics)
9. Katy Viuf (unattached)
10. April Kubishta (unattached)


If Reese can stay on the board, she is favored. But then, she doesn’t have to, because she has a wild card. It may take 23 feet to make the team.
2. Janay DeLoach Soukup (Nike)
3. Tori Bowie (unattached)
4. Funmi Jimoh (Nike)
5. Whitney Gipson (Nike)
6. Chelsea Hayes (Nike)
7. Vashti Thomas (Academy of Art)
8. Tori Polk (unattached)
9. Andrea Geubelle (Kansas)
10. Kylie Price (UCLA)


For the Americans, can anyone make the B? The Jayhawk Geubelle missed by an inch indoors. Smock got to London that way in ’12, but the standards are farther this year.
1. Amanda Smock (NYAC)
2. Andrea Geubelle (Kansas)
3. Crystal Manning (CVE)
5. Toni Smith (unattached)
5. LaQue Moen-Davis (Texas A&M)
6. Tori Franklin (Michigan State)
7. Ciarra Brewer (Florida)
8. April Sinkler (unattached)
9. Blessing Ufodiama (unattached)
10. Alitta Boyd (USC)


Jill Camarena-Williams, bronze delight in Daegu, is out after back surgery. There is a reservoir of 60-footers waiting in the wings.
1. Michelle Carter (Nike)
2. Tia Brooks (Oklahoma)
3. Jeneva McCall (New York AC)
4. Felisha Johnson (Indiana State)
5. Christina Hillman (Iowa State)
6. Kearsten Peoples (Missouri)
7. Becky O’Brien (unattached)
8. Dani Bunch (Purdue)
9. Taylor Smith (Wisconsin)
10. Alyssa Hasslen (Arizona)


With the veterans Stephanie Brown-Trafton on maternity leave and Suzy Powell retired, this event has opened up, especially for newcomers Ashley, Jelmini, Lockhart and Rohl.
1. Gia Lewis-Smallwood (Nike/NYAC)
2. Aretha Thurmond (Nike/NYAC)
3. Liz Podominick (RNF)
4. Whitney Ashley (unattached)
5. Anna Jelmini (Arizona State)
6. Paige Blackburn (AFS)
7. Rachel Longfors (World Express AC)
8. Sam Lockhart (Grand Valley State)
9. Beth Rohl (Michigan State)
10. Jessica Maroszek (Kansas)


Bingson opened the season with a PR, as American women get more comfortable beyond 70 meters.
1. Gwen Berry (New York AC)
2. Amber Campbell (unattached)
3. Jessica Cosby-Toruga (Nike/NYAC)
4. Amanda Bingson (Nike/NYAC)
5. Jeneva McCall (New York AC)
6. Chelsea Cassulo (Arizona State)
7. Brittany Smith (Illinois State)
8. Britney Henry (AST)
9. Amy Haapanen (unattached)
10. Ashley Harbin (unattached)


AR holder Patterson is in rehab and may not be ready. The veteran Rachel Yurkovich is taking the year off. There’s probably just one team spot available, thanks to an A-standard of 203-5.
1. Brittany Borman (unattached)
2. Brianna Bain (Stanford)
3. Leigh Petranoff (TZone)
4. Kim Hamilton (Nike)
5. Lauren Kenney (Penn State)
6. Laura Loht (Penn State)
7. Jenna Higgins (Mount Mercy)
8. Ariana Ince (unattached)
9. Heather Bergmann (Kansas)
10. Kara Patterson (Asics)


The venerable Fountain, 32, is out with a cranky back. Aiming to fill the void left by her absence will be a raft of 6000-types. The A is 6100.
1. Chantae McMillian (unattached)
2. Sharon Day (Asics)
3. Bettie Wade (Nike)
4. Kiani Profit (unattached)
5. Keia Pinnick (Arizona State)
6. Ryann Krais (unattached)
7. Erica Bougard (Mississippi State)
8. Chelsea Carrier-Eades (unattached)
9. Lindsay Lettow (unattached)
10. Heather Miller (CPTC)