Chart #4 (switch to women's chart)

compiled by Dave Johnson (as of June 19)

The picture has become much clearer since declarations closed last night. Here’s our best guesses as to what might happen in Des Moines this week, with World Championships berths on the line for the first 3 eligibles (not all events will end up full, of course).

You will note that some athletes are differentiated by color. If they are in red, that means that they have achieved the A-standard required to compete in Moscow. If they are in blue, that means they have the B-standard. Go here for the official list of A&B standards and what the two categories mean.

You will also find 6 men who are listed in capital letters. That means they are in possession of a “wild card”: the U.S. can enter 3 others in addition to them because they are either the reigning world champ or Diamond League champ.

As wild cards, USATF requires that they compete in the national championships, but not necessarily in their qualifying event, and they don’t need to make the final, just compete.

The by-event picks:

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Gay’s Kingston run and New York DL win have him atop the heap. Close call since Gatlin is undefeated in DL 100s and beat Bolt in Rome. NCAA champ Silmon and Locke are the up-and-comers, Patton the old-timer who’s getting faster with age.
1. Tyson Gay (adidas) 2
2. Justin Gatlin (Xtep) 1
3. Walter Dix (Nike) 8
4. Mike Rodgers (Nike) 4
5. Charles Silmon (TCU) nr
6. Dentarius Locke (Florida State) nr
7. Mookie Salaam (adidas) (10)
8. Doc Patton (Nike) 5
9. Calesio Newman (unattached) nr
10. Isiah Young (Mississippi) nr


Who will run will depend on who makes the century team and who gets nicked up trying. Gay hasn’t run a 200 in multi-round meets since ’08 but is entered, and Gatlin didn’t run the 200 last year after making the team in the 100. Pre-season talk had Spearmon considering a move up to the 400; that has not happened.
1. Wallace Spearmon (Saucony) 1
2. Walter Dix (Nike) 5
3. Tyson Gay (adidas) 10
4. Justin Gatlin (Xtep) (9)
5. Ameer Webb (Texas A&M) 7
6. Isiah Young (Mississippi) 4
7. Jeremy Dodson (Boulder TC) 9
8. Calesio Newman (unattached) nr
9. Charles Silmon (TCU) nr
10. Maurice Mitchell (Nike) 2


Merritt is back to form after last season’s injury. Behind him is a pack of youngsters? Among those youngsters, which collegians will best hold form and run well two weeks later? Last year it was Nellum, who this year's NCAA champ.
1. LaShawn Merritt (Nike) 1
2. Tony McQuay (adidas) 3
3. Bryshon Nellum (USC) 6
4. Josh Mance (unattached) 7
5. Arman Hall (Florida) nr
6. David Verburg (George Mason) 9
7. Jeremy Wariner (adidas) 4
8. Torrin Lawrence (unattached) nr
9. Calvin Smith (adidas) 5
10. Manteo Mitchell (Nike) 8


Solomon dethroned Symmonds as top American last year, but was that a 1-year thing? And was Sowinski’s indoor breakthrough as much a revelation of things to come as we see here? The outdoor revelation has been Johnson, running at the front in several races this year.
1. Duane Solomon (Saucony) 1
2. Nick Symmonds (Nike) 2
3. Erik Sowinski (unattached) 10
4. Brandon Johnson (Nike) nr
5. Tyler Mulder (Oregon TC) 5
6. Charles Jock (Nike) 8
7. Mike Rutt (NJ/NY TC) 9
8. Mark Wieczorek (Brooks) 7
9. Elijah Greer (Oregon) 6
10. Robby Andrews (adidas) (7)


Recent international medalists Centrowitz and Manzano lead the way, but after them the field is wide open. Galen Rupp and Lopez Lomong are the fastest Americans so far this year but won’t run here, nor will Bernard Lagat. Lomong is entered, but has indicated everything is pointing for the 5000.
1. Matthew Centrowitz (Nike Oregon) 1
2. Leo Manzano (Nike) 2
3. Will Leer (Nike) (7)
4. Andrew Wheating (Oregon TC) 4
5. Russell Brown (Nike) (9)
6. Garrett Heath (Saucony) nr
7. Andy Bayer (Indiana) 6
8. Ryan Hill (NC State) nr
9. Jordan McNamara (Nike) 8
10. David Torrence (Nike) 5


Jager burst on the scene last year with Cabral being the rare collegian to make an international championship distance team. But Cabral hasn’t shown last year’s form. Leslie has provided the year’s breakthrough performance, and veterans Huling and Nelson are back in the hunt for team spots.
1. Evan Jager (Nike) 1
2. Cory Leslie (unattached) 9
3. Dan Huling (Nike) 6
4. Billy Nelson (New Balance) 9
5. Donn Cabral (Nike) 2
6. DeSean Turner (Team Indiana) nr
7. Craig Forys (New York AC) nr
8. Donnie Cowart (W Ex) 4
9. Ben Bruce (adidas) 5
10. Travis Mahoney (NJ/NY TC) nr


With two days' rest between the 10 and 5 there may be several people who run both, and perhaps without drastic effects if the 10 is not particularly difficult. Lagat and Rupp should be locks, but strange things can always happen.
1. Bernard Lagat (Nike) 1
2. Galen Rupp (Nike Oregon) 2
3. Lopez Lomong (Nike) 3
4. Chris Derrick (Nike) 10
5. Andrew Bumbalough (Nike) 6
6. Ben True (Saucony) 7
7. Dathan Ritzenhein (Nike Oregon) 4
8. Hassan Mead (Oregon TC) nr
9. Garrett Heath (Saucony) nr
10. Chris Solinsky (Nike) (3)


10,000 METERS
True and Derrick broke through during cross country and could be ready to make a Worlds 10K team. Ritzenhein is always able to turn in a strong performance when needed, and he's looked good this spring. Tegenkamp likely won't run. Hot, sticky weather could turn both the 10 and 5 tactical.
1. Galen Rupp (Nike Oregon) 1
2. Ben True (Saucony) 10
3. Chris Derrick (Nike) 4
4. Dathan Ritzenhein (Nike Oregon) 2
5. Ryan Vail (unattached) 7
6. Bobby Curtis (Hansens) (4)
7. Aaron Braun (adidas) 5
8. Matt Tegenkamp (Nike) 3
9. Luke Puskedra (unattached) 9
10. Girma Mecheso (Oklahoma State) nr


WR holder Merritt had one of the great hurdle seasons ever, but hasn’t competed since suffering an injury in mid-May. Oliver is back strong, and reigning world champ Richardson is solid. Then it’s a crapshoot. Will there be another Jeff Porter with a race of a lifetime? Any way you cut it, probably the toughest U.S. squad to make.
1. David Oliver (Nike) 3
3. Aries Merritt (Nike) 1
4. Ryan Wilson (Saucony) 5
5. Jeff Porter (Nike) 4
6. Antwon Hicks (TruFit) 7
7. David Payne (unattached) 10
8. Kevin Craddock (unattached) nr
9. Omo Osaghae (adidas) nr
10. Joel Brown (adidas) 8


Tinsley proved to be the best of the Americans in London, but this year will show his level of consistency. Behind him are world-leader Dutch and veterans Jackson and Clement, any of whom could still be #1 and at least one of whom won’t make the team.
1. Michael Tinsley (adidas) 1
2. Johnny Dutch (Nike) 7
3. Bershawn Jackson (Nike) 3
4. Kerron Clement (Nike) 4
5. Justin Gaymon (unattached) 5
6. Reggie Wyatt (USC) 6
7. Jeshua Anderson (Nike) (3)
8. Michael Stigler (Kansas) 8
9. Steven White (North Texas) nr
10. Reuben McCoy (unattached) nr


A rare youth movement has taken hold, with 6 likely top-10 finishers under age 25. At 20, Barron won the last three times as a teenager. (walk predictions by Steve Vaitones)
1. Trevor Barron (New York AC) 1
2. Patrick Stroupe (unattached) 3
3. Tim Seaman (New York AC) 2
4. Nick Christie (Missouri Baptist) 4
5. Jonathan Hallman (World Class RW) nr
6. Alex Chavez (unattached) nr
7. John Nunn (unattached) 7
8. Michael Mannozzi (Shore AC) 6
9. Dan Serianni (World Class RW) 5
10. Cody Risch (Cornerstone) nr


The first three make a very solid trio, in theory, and could finish in any order. Williams has been hurt, though, as has fellow London Olympian Nieto. Any mistakes by the top 3 open the door to a number of collegians who could get hot on the day.
1. Erik Kynard (Kansas State) 2
3. Dusty Jonas (Nike) (2)
4. Keith Moffatt (Nike) (7)
5. Geoff Davis (Purdue) (10)
6. Ronnie Black (Virginia Tech) nr
7. James Harris (Florida State) (9)
8. Montez Blair (Cornell) nr
9. Jamie Nieto (New York AC) 3
10. Jeron Robinson (Texas A&M-Kingsville) nr


Walker is still at the top, but an opening height higher than the rest of the field can handle could spell doom for him as it has on occasion. The best of the rest this year are the three collegians, Kendrick, Whitt and Irwin. Or will the two Scotts be ready in time to outvault the youngsters? Retirements have thinned the pool of veterans as five collegians are listed among the top 10.
1. Brad Walker (Nike) 1
2. Sam Kendricks (Mississippi) nr
3. Jack Whitt (Oral Roberts) 6
4. Andrew Irwin (Arkansas) nr
5. Jordan Scott (PowerBar) 8
6. Mark Hollis (unattached) 5
7. Jeremy Scott (Nike) 3
8. Victor Weirich (BYU) nr
9. Nick Mossberg (unattached) (6)
8. John Prader (Cal Poly SLO) nr


Phillips has the wild card, so will he do anything more than just put in an appearance? He didn’t do much in his first legal jump in more than a year. TJ wild card Taylor wants to make the team in a second event.
1. Will Claye (Nike) 1
2. Christian Taylor (Li Ning) 5
3. George Kitchens (Goldcal) 4
4. Jeremy Hicks (unattached) (4)
5. Marquis Dendy (Florida) nr
6. Mike Hartfield (Ohio State) 8
7. Tyron Stewart (Chula Vista Elite) nr
9. Ronald Taylor (unattached) nr
10. Jeff Artis-Gray (Virginia Tech) nr


The world’s two best TJers aren’t likely to meet as Taylor’s wild card allows him to concentrate on the LJ. That leaves the TJ open for Claye, with NCAA Craddock the odds on favorite for a spot. Is USA indoor champ Honeycutt a new hopeful?
1. Will Claye (Nike) 2
2. Omar Craddock (Florida) 4
3. Chris Carter (unattached) (4)
4. Chris Benard (Chila Vista Elite) 10
5. Josh Honeycutt (Phoenix Elite) nr
6. James Jenkins (St. Louis Blues) nr
7. Rafeeq Curry (Shore AC) 9
8. Nkosinza Balumbu (Mission Viejo) 7
9. Floyd Ross (New Mexico) nr
10. Ryan Grinnell (unattached) 5


Still one of America’s best international events, even with the Adam Nelson’s retirement and Cantwell out with injury. With a full field of spinners, someone—or more—is bound to make a disastrous mistake; witness Crouser’s safety throw win at NCAA.
1. Ryan Whiting (Nike) 2
2. REESE HOFFA (New York AC) 1
3. Cory Martin (Nike) 6
4. Ryan Crouser (Texas) nr
5. Kurt Roberts (Nike) 7
6. Joe Kovacs (unattached) 4
7. Zack Lloyd (unattached) (9)
8. Russ Winger (Asics) (8)
9. Eric Werskey (unattached) 10
10. Jacob Thormaehlen (unattached) 9


About a half-dozen people could win this, and any of these 10 could make the team. Early-season form has ridden the winds. Come the selection meet, Rome is always in the hunt. Who gets left home? Or is that the wrong question? Right now, no Americans have met the Worlds A or B standard.
1. Jason Young (Nike) 2
2. Jarred Rome (Nike) 4
3. Lance Brooks (Nike) 1
4. Casey Malone (Nike) 6
5. Russ Winger (Asics) 3
6. Chase Madison (unattached) nr
7. Luke Bryant (unattached) 9
8. Jared Schuurmans (WTA) nr
9. Mike Torie (unattached) nr
10. Andrew Evans (Kentucky) nr


Kruger and Johnson seem to have separated themselves from the rest. Loftin is in PR territory this year, but Cralle had a great Olympic Trials. Is that his new level of ability or will that remain his peak?
1. A.G. Kruger (Nike) 2
2. Kibwé Johnson (New York AC) 1
3. Drew Loftin (OtterBox) 5
4. Chris Cralle (unattached) 3
5. Jake Freeman (Nike) 9
6. Andy Fryman (Mjolnir) 7
7. Colin Dunbar (unattached) nr
8. Garrett Grey (Ashland) nr
9. Jeremy Postin (Florida) nr
10. Collin Post (AZ Desert Throwers) nr


Hostetler, Kinsley and Furey have competed sparingly this year. Collegians seem ready to crowd out the veterans, but will they have the right stuff at the right time?
1. Sam Humphreys (Texas A&M) 1
2. Corey White (unattached) 7
3. Tim Glover (Illinois State) 5
4. Cyrus Hostetler (Oregon TC) 3
5. Sam Crouser (Oregon) 6
6. Andy Fahringer (unattached) nr
7. Nick Howe (Movin Shoes) nr
8. Craig Kinsley (unattached) 2
9. Sean Furey (Mizuno) 4
10. Tim VanLiew (Rutgers-Camden) nr


Wildcard Trey Hardee doesn’t have to finish the event, nor does he intend to. For that matter, Eaton and Taiwo are the only other Americans with the 8200 A standard. If they think no one else can get to that level, we could see a team with three qualifiers all failing to finish in Des Moines and saving themselves for Moscow.
1. Ashton Eaton (Oregon TC) 1
2. Jeremy Taiwo (Washington) nr
3. Gunnar Nixon (unattached) 10
4. Isaac Murphy (Texas) 9
5. Ryan Harlan (unattached) 6
6. Dakotah Keys (Oregon) nr
7. Terry Prentice (unattached) nr
8. Gray Horn (unattached) 4
9. Wesley Bray (unattached) nr
10. Miller Moss (unattached) 7