Chart #3 (switch to men's chart)

compiled by Jack Pfeifer (as of May 29)

With the first U.S. Diamond League meet in the books and the NCAA Regionals done, the picture has become lots clearer. So here’s our best guesses as to what might happen in Des Moines in late June, with World Championships berths on the line for the first 3 eligibles (not all events will end up full).

You will note that some athletes are differentiated by color. If they are in red, that means that they have achieved the A-standard required to compete in Moscow. If they are in blue, that means they have the B-standard. Go here for the official list of A&B standards and what the two categories mean.

You will also find 7 women who are listed in capital letters. That means they are in possession of a “wild card”: the U.S. can enter 3 others in addition to them. As wild cards, USATF requires that they compete in the national championships, but not necessarily in their qualifying event, and they don’t need to make the final, just compete.


The by-event picks:


Bookmark and Share

Jeter and Bartoletta were 1-2 in the Olympic Trials lasat year. But reigning World Champ Jeter is nursing a balky hamstring and can use her Wild Card status to make just a token heat apparance in either sprint. Pierre is a 26-year-old Floridian who formerly ran for Haiti.
1. Barbara Pierre (Nike) (9)
2. Tianna Bartoletta (Saucony) nr
3. Allyson Felix (Nike) 3
4. English Gardner (Oregon) 6
5. Octavious Freeman (UCF) nr
6. Lauryn Williams (Saucony) 5
7. Miki Barber (Nike) (5)
8. Alex Anderson (Nike) 9
9. Mandy White (Nike) nr
Jeter is the last American to beat Felix at this distance, at the ’11 Weltklasse. If up to it, she could run the deuce, and thereby keep ahold of her spot in the 100. With the Oly gold finally hers, Felix has turf to defend. Collegians Duncan, Scott and Brown are all contenders.
1. Allyson Felix (Nike) 1
2. Kimberlyn Duncan (LSU) 4
3. Shalonda Solomon (Reebok) (3)
4. Aurieyall Scott (UCF) 9
5. Kamaria Brown (Texas A&M) nr
6. Bianca Knight (adidas) 7
7. Alex Anderson (Nike) nr
8. LaShaunte’a Moore (Nike) 10
10. Carmelita Jeter (Nike) 2
Hastings and the 33-year-old Wineberg, shut out of the Olympic team, hope to make amends after good indoor showings. Gold medalist SRR, now 28, has been making national teams since she was 17 but is recovering slowly from toe surgery last fall.
1. Sanya Richards-Ross (Nike) 1
2. Natasha Hastings (Under Armour) 6
3. Francena McCorory (adidas) 2
4. Jessica Beard (adidas) 8
5. Dee Dee Trotter (Saucony) 3
6. Moushaumi Robinson (unattached) nr
7. Keshia Baker (Saucony) 7
8. Joanna Atkins (Nike) nr
9. Mary Wineberg (Brooks) (10)
10. Monica Hargrove (Under Armour) (8)
Montaño, 5th in London, picked up a 600 AR this winter and, a mere 26, shows no signs of slowing. In her rearview mirror she can spot Wilson, who at 18 has won the World Juniors and this winter’s indoor Senior nationals.
1. Alysia Montaño (Asics) 1
2. Geena Gall (Nike) 3
3. Phoebe Wright (adidas) 9
4. Ajee’ Wilson (adidas) nr
5. Lea Wallace (Nike) nr
6. LaTavia Thomas (Nike) (9)
7. Chanelle Price (unattached) nr
8. Alice Schmidt (Nike) 4
9. Heather Kampf (Asics) (10)
10. Laura Roesler (Oregon) nr
Uceny and Rowbury, both of whom made the final in London, have been slow to come around this spring. Simpson, reigning world champion, has looked like her old self. Martinez and the 17-year-old phenom Cain are the newest threats along with a host of other sub-4:10s.
1. JENNY SIMPSON (New Balance) 3
2. Brenda Martinez (New Balance) 10
3. Mary Cain (New York HS) nr
4. Katie Mackey (Brooks) 9
5. Shannon Rowbury (Nike) 1
6. Morgan Uceny (Reebok) 2
7. Gabriele Anderson (Brooks) 4
8. Kate Grace (Oiselle) nr
7. Sarah Brown (New Balance) 6
9. Renee Tomlin (Nike) nr
Coburn hasn’t lost a steeple to an American since Franek beat her in the ’10 NCAA. Since then the Colorado senior has made World Championships and Olympic finals. Ex-Gopher Cheever has become the 7th sub-9:30 American.
1. Emma Coburn (Colorado) 1
2. Bridget Franek (Oregon TC) 2
3. Jamie Cheever (Team Minn) nr
4. Nicole Bush (unattached) (10)
5. Ashley Higginson (Saucony) 4
6. Sara Vaughn (unattached) nr
7. Lindsey Anderson (unattached) nr
8. Stephanie Garcia (New Balance) 9
9. Shalaya Kipp (unattached) 3
10. Colleen Quigley (Florida State) nr
Will the 5 players be back from the dramatic finish in last year’s Trials? In that, Culley surprised Huddle to win, and the unheralded Conley ran down D’Agostino and the fading Lucas to get the final spot on the team. Meanwhile, Moser, Williams and Reilly have all had impressive PRs.
1. Abbey D’Agostino (Dartmouth) 5
2. Molly Huddle (Saucony) 1
3. Treniere Moser (Nike) nr
4. Kim Conley (New Balance) 3
5. Julia Lucas (Oregon TC) 4
6. Chelsea Reilly (Bay Area TC) nr
7. Brie Felnagle (adidas) nr
8. Jackie Areson (Nike) 7
9. Julie Culley (Asics) 2
10. Delilah DiCrescenzo (Reeb) nr
10,000 METERS
The 10 has become the warmup race for the übermarathoners of today – Flanagan, Goucher, Hastings. Olympian Bawcom may just stick to road racing. Hasay didn’t make the NCAA final. Will that actually be a good thing relative to running this one?
1. Shalane Flanagan (Nike) 3
2. Kara Goucher (Nike) (3)
3. Amy Hastings (Brooks) 1
4. Neely Spence Gracey (Hansons) nr
5. Lisa Uhl (Nike) 5
6. Jordan Hasay (Oregon) nr
7. Laura Thweatt (Boulder TC) nr
8. Tara Erdmann (Nike) 8
9. Megan Goethals (Washington) nr
10. Janet Bawcom (Nike) 4
Harper/Wells, 1-2 at the Trials, 2-3 in London. The coveted 3rd spot is up for grabs again. Last year it went to the fan fav Lolo, who this year has been bobsledding, dreaming of Sochi, and hurdling well also. The field is so close, everyone here has a shot.
2. Kellie Wells (Nike) 2
3. Brianna Rollins (Clemson) 8
4. Lolo Jones (Asics) 4
5. Queen Harrison (Saucony) 5
6. Ginnie Crawford (Nike) 3
7. Yvette Lewis (Nike) (6)
8. Kristi Castlin (adidas) 6
9. Vashti Thomas (Academy of Art) nr
10. Kori Carter (Stanford) nr
Demus, reigning world champ, has been vulnerable this spring. Moline, 5th in London, has lost twice to fellow collegian Carter this spring. Also coming on is the ex-Trojan Muhammad, who has PRed three times this campaign.
2. Kori Carter (Stanford) nr
3. Georganne Moline (Arizona) 2
4. T’Erea Brown (adidas) 3
5. Turquoise Thompson (UCLA) 6
6. Tiffany Williams (unattached) 4
7. Dalilah Muhammad (unattached) nr
8. Ellen Wortham (unattached) 9
9. Cassandra Tate (unattached) 5
10. Ashley Spencer (Illinois) nr
Things are very fluid here so far, with few 20K races yet contested. Michta has a 3-year streak as the No. 1 U.S. Ranker and won the indoor 3K easily. (walk picks by Steve Vaitones)
1. Maria Michta (Walk USA) 1
2. Erin Gray (Bowerman AC) 3
3. Miranda Melville (Walk USA) 2
4. Katie Burnett (unattached) 9
5. Lauren Forgues (unattached) 6
6. Teresa Vaill (unattached) (2)
7. Susan Randall (Miami V TC) 7
8. Solomiya Login (SEn Pa AC) 10
9. Nicole Bonk (Embry-Riddle) nr
10. Loretta McGovern (WCRW) nr
Barrett was a surprise in Eugene, clearing 6-7 to lose to Chaunté Lowe on the countback, then a shock in London, 6-8 for the silver. With Lowe on maternity break (her 3rd), McPherson seems next-best. Lowe owns a Wild Card as the Diamond League champ, but will she have any chance of using it?
1. Brigetta Barrett (Arizona) 2
2. Inika McPherson (unattached) 8
3. Ty Butts (unattached) 7
4. Becky Christensen (Riadha) 5
5. Shanay Briscoe (Texas) 4
6. Krystle Schade (Alabama) 9
7. Liz Patterson (Asics) (6)
8. Maya Pressley (Auburn) nr
9. Priscilla Frederick (New York AC) 10
10. Sharon Day (Asics) nr
The Suhr questions are, how high will she start and how high will she go? After her, the scrap is on for the other spots, including two others from far upstate New York, Saxer and Keppler.
1. Jenn Suhr (adidas) 1
2. Kylie Hutson (Nike) 5
3. Mary Saxer (New York AC) 4
4. Becky Holliday (unattached) 2
5. Lacy Janson (Nike) 3
6. Janice Keppler (unattached) nr
7. April Steiner-Bennett (Asics) 6
8. Morgann LeLeux (Georgia) 10
9. Katy Viuf (unattached) 7
10. April Kubishta (unattached) nr
If Reese can stay on the board, no one can touch her. But then, she doesn’t have to, because she has a wild card. It may take 23 feet to make the team.
1. Brittney Reese (Nike) 1
2. Janay DeLoach Soukup (Nike) 2
3. Tori Bowie (unattached) 9
4. Funmi Jimoh (Nike) 5
5. Whitney Gipson (Nike) 4
6. Chelsea Hayes (Nike) 3
7. Vashti Thomas (Academy of Art) 7
8. Tori Polk (unattached) (5)
9. Andrea Geubelle (Kansas) nr
10. Kylie Price (UCLA) nr
For the Americans, can anyone make the B? The Jayhawk Geubelle missed by an inch indoors. Smock got to London that way in ’12, but the standards are farther this year.
1. Andrea Geubelle (Kansas) 3
2. Amanda Smock (New York AC) 1
3. Crystal Manning (Chula Vista Elite) 4
4. Yvette Lewis (unattached) 7
5. Ciarra Brewer (Florida) 10
6. Toni Smith (unattached) 5
7. LaQue Moen-Davis (Texas A&M) nr
8. April Sinkler (unattached) nr
9. Blessing Ufodiama (unattached) 9
10. Tori Franklin (Michigan State) nr
Camarena-Williams, bronze delight in Daegu, is out, still recuperating from back surgery last fall. There is a reservoir of 60-footers waiting in the wings.
1. Michelle Carter (Nike) 2
2. Tia Brooks (Oklahoma) 3
3. Jeneva McCall (New York AC) 6
4. Felisha Johnson (Indiana State) nr
5. Kearsten Peoples (Missouri) 4
6. Brittany Smith (Illinois State) 9
7. Alyssa Hasslen (Arizona) 7
8. Becky O’Brien (unattached) nr
9. Taylor Smith (Wisconsin) nr
10. Nia Henderson
(unattached) nr
With the veterans Stephanie Brown-Trafton on maternity leave and Suzy Powell in retirement, this event has opened up, especially for newcomers like Ashley, Jelmini, Vaughan and Rohl.
1. Gia Lewis-Smallwood (New York AC) 3
2. Aretha Thurmond (New York AC) 2
3. Liz Podominick (RNF) 6
4. Whitney Ashley (unattached) nr
5. Anna Jelmini (Arizona State) 7
6. Beth Rohl (Michigan State) 9
7. Paige Blackburn (AFS) nr
8. Rachel Longfors (W Ex AC) nr
9. Shelbi Vaughan (Texas A&M) 5
10. Summer Pierson (unattached) 8
Bingson opened the season with a PR, as American women get more comfortable beyond 70 meters.
1. Amber Campbell (unattached) 1
2. Jessica Cosby-Toruga (New York AC) 2
3. Amanda Bingson (New York AC) 3
4. Gwen Berry (New York AC) 9
5. Jeneva McCall (New York AC) 10
6. Chelsea Cassulo (Arizona State) nr
7. Britney Henry (AST) 4
8. Amy Haapanen (unattached) 5
9. Ashley Harbin (unattached) nr
10. Caressa Sims (unattached) nr
AR holder Patterson is in rehab and may not be ready this campaign. The veteran Yurkovich has also been slow to come around. There’s probably just one team spot available, thanks to an A-standard of 203-5.
1. Brittany Borman (Nike) 1
2. Brianna Bain (Stanford) nr
3. Leigh Petranoff (T Zone) 9
4. Kim Hamilton (Nike) 4
5. Lauren Kenney (Penn State) nr
6. Jenna Higgins (Mt Mercy) nr
7. Avionne Allgood (Oklahoma) (5)
8. Ariana Ince (unattached) nr
9. Rachel Yurkovich (Nike) 3
10. Kara Patterson (Asics) 2
The venerable Fountain, 32, may not want to turn in her spurs yet, although she has had a cranky back. In her wake is a raft of 6000-types. The A is 6100.
1. Chantae McMillian (unattached) 3
2. Sharon Day (Asics) 2
3. Bettie Wade (Nike) 4
4. Kiani Profit (unattached) nr
5. Hyleas Fountain (Nike) 1
6. Aisha Adams (unattached) nr
7. Ryann Krais (unattached) 10
8. Barbara Nwaba (unattached) 5
9. Lindsay Lettow (unattached) 7
10. Lindsay Vollmer (Kansas) nr