Moscow 2013 World Championship Predictions


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Moscow 2013 World Championship Predictions

Postby jamboy » Sat Jul 27, 2013 8:04 am

Since the last Diamond League is now completed(London), we can now have our official Moscow 213 WC predictions underway.

Here is mine.

Men
100m - Bolt
200m - Bolt
400m - Kirani James
4 x 100m relay - Jamaica


Women
100 - Fraser
200 - Felix
400 - Montsho
4 x 100m - USA, Jamaica
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Re: Moscow 2013 World Championship Predictions

Postby user4 » Sat Jul 27, 2013 8:13 am

Your breadth of track interest shows great perspective ! We salute you.
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Re: Moscow 2013 World Championship Predictions

Postby jamboy » Sat Jul 27, 2013 8:17 am

user4 wrote:Your breadth of track interest shows great perspective ! We salute you.


lol. Give me some time to hash out the other races. I just listed the most important ones. :D
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Re: Moscow 2013 World Championship Predictions

Postby t_monk » Sat Jul 27, 2013 8:30 am

100m
M: Bolt, Gatlin, Carter
W: SAFP, Okagbare, Jeter/Ahoure

200m:
M: Bolt, Weir, Ashmead
W: I can't predict this one: Felix (for the fact that she is Felix), Ahoure (performance this season), Okagbare (performance this season), Duncan (for beating Felix), SAFP (Oly silver medalist)

400m:
M: James, Meritt, Masrahi
W: Krivoshopka, Montsho, Ohogoru

Sprint Hurdles:
M: Meritt, Oliver, Riley
W: Pearson, Harper-Nelson, Rollins

400mH
M: Culson, Tinsley, Sanchez
W: Hejnova, Shakes-Drayton, Moline/Antyukh/Spencer/Demus

800m:
M: Aman, Solomon, Bosse
W: Savinova, Niyonsaba, Kotulskaya

1500m:
M: Kiprop, Ndiku, Birgen
W: Aregawi, Dibaba, Obiri

I'll update with the rest later
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Re: Moscow 2013 World Championship Predictions

Postby Rothosen » Sat Jul 27, 2013 8:40 am

I'll pick Kipyegon to get the Silver in the w1500m
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Re: Moscow 2013 World Championship Predictions

Postby jamboy » Sat Jul 27, 2013 9:20 am

Good choices T-monk. I will update my predictions later.
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Re: Moscow 2013 World Championship Predictions

Postby Nino » Sun Jul 28, 2013 3:54 am

100m M: Bolt, Gatlin, Carter

200m M: Bolt, Weir, Ashmeade/Young (USA)

400m M: James, Merritt, McQuay

800m M: Aman, Symmonds, Solomon

110mh: Merritt, Oliver, Riley

400mh M: Tinsley, Culson, Gordon

4x100m: Jamaica, USA, France

4x400m: USA, Bahamas, Jamaica


100m W: Fraser-Pryce, Okagbare, Jeter/Ahoure

200m W: This is too hard to predict, but medals should come from Felix/Fraser-Pryce/Ahoure/Okagbare/Duncan

400m W: Montsho, Ohuruogu, Krivoshapka

800m W: Savinova, Niyonsaba, Akkaoui/Montano

1500m W: Aregawi, Dibaba, Obiri/Simpson

100mh: Harper-Nelson, Rollins, Pearson/Harrison

400mh W: Hejnova, Shakes-Drayton, Moline (This is assuming Demus is off-form, we haven't see her after trials)

4x100m W: USA, Jamaica, Trinidad and Tobago/Ukraine

4x400m W: USA, Russia, Jamaica (Great Britain's team looks good this year, may have a shot in the medals.)
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Re: Moscow 2013 World Championship Predictions

Postby eldanielfire » Sun Jul 28, 2013 4:58 am

100m W: Okagbare, Fraser-Pryce, Duncan

200m W: This is too hard to predict, but medals should come from Felix, Fraser-Pryce, Ahoure

400m W: Ohuruogu, Krivoshapka, McCorory

800m W: Savinova, Niyonsaba, Akkaoui/Montano

1500m W: Aregawi, Dibaba, Simpson

100mh: Harper-Nelson, Rollins, Pearson

400mh W: Hejnova, Shakes-Drayton, Antyukh

4x100m W: USA, Jamaica, Ukraine

4x400m W: USA, Russia, Britain

5000: Defar

10,000: Dibaba
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Re: Moscow 2013 World Championship Predictions

Postby eldanielfire » Sun Jul 28, 2013 5:08 am

Nino wrote:
4x100m W: USA, Jamaica, Trinidad and Tobago/Ukraine


I'd put Ukraine as a fair bit faster than any other women's team and have almost all run PBs this year indicating they are getting better while Trinidad and Tobago have lost one of theirs to a positive drug test weakening their team. I also think the GB women have a good chance at 4th, their 42.69secs this weekend with one rubbish changeover and 2 better runners to come in will dead cert mean in my mind if one of the top 3 drop the batten GB will medal.
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Re: Moscow 2013 World Championship Predictions

Postby iain » Sun Jul 28, 2013 5:16 am

eldanielfire wrote:
Nino wrote:
4x100m W: USA, Jamaica, Trinidad and Tobago/Ukraine


I'd put Ukraine as a fair bit faster than any other women's team and have almost all run PBs this year indicating they are getting better while Trinidad and Tobago have lost one of theirs to a positive drug test weakening their team. I also think the GB women have a good chance at 4th, their 42.69secs this weekend with one rubbish changeover and 2 better runners to come in will dead cert mean in my mind if one of the top 3 drop the batten GB will medal.


The thing is I could just as easily see us running 43.5 and dropping the baton :/
Also, Hackett appears to be in the TRI team anyway???
Lots of teams just behind UKR - TRI, NGR, GBR, BRA, NED, FRA, GER etc
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Re: Moscow 2013 World Championship Predictions

Postby Nino » Sun Jul 28, 2013 6:19 am

eldanielfire wrote:100m W: Okagbare, Fraser-Pryce, Duncan

Duncan is not in the 100m, unless I'm missing something.
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Re: Moscow 2013 World Championship Predictions

Postby eldanielfire » Sun Jul 28, 2013 6:37 am

iain wrote:
eldanielfire wrote:
Nino wrote:
4x100m W: USA, Jamaica, Trinidad and Tobago/Ukraine


I'd put Ukraine as a fair bit faster than any other women's team and have almost all run PBs this year indicating they are getting better while Trinidad and Tobago have lost one of theirs to a positive drug test weakening their team. I also think the GB women have a good chance at 4th, their 42.69secs this weekend with one rubbish changeover and 2 better runners to come in will dead cert mean in my mind if one of the top 3 drop the batten GB will medal.


The thing is I could just as easily see us running 43.5 and dropping the baton :/
Also, Hackett appears to be in the TRI team anyway???
Lots of teams just behind UKR - TRI, NGR, GBR, BRA, NED, FRA, GER etc


Your right, my mistake, she got a soft ban as you do competing in the USA.

I'm not sure you can say that. The Ukraine is half a second ahead of most countries best times of the last 3 years. To put that in connect they are as far behind Jamaica as other countries are behind them.
On top of that I think we can all agree Jamaica is this season considerably weaker and the Ukrainian girl's have all got stronger in their individual times. The Ukraine at the European team championships ran only 0.3 off the T&T national record. They did that early seaso, in the rain and and with only 2 of their likely final team. Unless the same T&T team knocks over a third of a second off and the Ukrainians individually improvements from 2012 doesn't at all come into the relay then T&T have a chance. But it is equally as likely as Jamaica's team being overhauled by the Ukraine. You might say in 2013 The Ukraine is closer to Jamaica then T&T are to the Ukraine given their massive loss of two of their most important runners. If Jamaica are locks for 2nd then the Ukraine are almost equally as strong locks for 3rd sans Batten drops. I'd argue Britain and Nigeria have equally as much chance of beating the Ukraine as T&T.
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Re: Moscow 2013 World Championship Predictions

Postby iain » Sun Jul 28, 2013 10:53 am

I think you misunderstood, I basically agree with that paragraph :P
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Re: Moscow 2013 World Championship Predictions

Postby LopenUupunut » Sun Jul 28, 2013 11:36 am

mLJ: Menkov, Cáceres, Li Jinzhe
mTJ: Taylor, Tamgho, Pichardo
mHJ: Bondarenko, Kynard, Drouin
mPV: Lavillenie, Otto, Holzdeppe
mSP: Whiting, Storl, Majewski
mHT: Pars, Kozmus, Litvinov
mJT: Tarabin, Veselý, Avramenko
mDT: Harting, Małachowski, Hadadi
m20kW: Barrondo, Wang Zhen, Cai Zelin
m50kW: Kirdyapkin, Tallent, Diniz
mDec: Eaton, Schrader, Hardee

wLJ: Reese, Okagbare, Klishina
wTJ: Ibargüen, Koneva, Saladuha
wHJ: Barrett, Chicherova, Vlašić
wPV: Silva, Isinbayeva, Suhr
wSP: Adams, Gong, Kolodko
wHT: Lysenko, Włodarczyk, Heidler
wJT: Abakumova, Obergföll, Mickle
wDT: Perković, Barrios, Lewis-Smallwood
w20kW: Lashmanova, Kaniskina, Liu Hong
wHep: will predict once we know if Ennis-Hill is in

Did I forget any events? :wink:
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Re: Moscow 2013 World Championship Predictions

Postby TrackTeacher_AP » Sun Jul 28, 2013 11:37 am

Well I havent paid much attention to some of the women's events as well as anything over 800 so I will just pick male sprint events.

100- Bolt, Gatlin, Rodgers
200- Bolt, Weir, Mitchell
400- Merritt, James, Mcquay
4x1- USA, JAM, GBR
4x4- USA, BAH, JAM-BEL-T&T (cant decide)
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Re: Moscow 2013 World Championship Predictions

Postby eldanielfire » Sun Jul 28, 2013 12:52 pm

iain wrote:I think you misunderstood, I basically agree with that paragraph :P



Ah, my mistake. I'm quite protective of the Ukraines sprinting achievements because it's so nice to have a genuinely good European team competing for medals. I'm expecting them to go sub-42 in Moscow, weather permitting.
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Re: Moscow 2013 World Championship Predictions

Postby Rothosen » Sun Jul 28, 2013 11:00 pm

Has anyone ever done the unique triple Faith Kipyegon is attempting?

2009 - World Youth Champion
2011 - World Junior Champion
2013 -World Champion

She does have the second fastest time this year @ 3:56.98 but still has to find a way to beat Aregawi.
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Re: Moscow 2013 World Championship Predictions

Postby iain » Mon Jul 29, 2013 1:13 am

eldanielfire wrote:
iain wrote:I think you misunderstood, I basically agree with that paragraph :P



Ah, my mistake. I'm quite protective of the Ukraines sprinting achievements because it's so nice to have a genuinely good European team competing for medals. I'm expecting them to go sub-42 in Moscow, weather permitting.


I wouldn't go that far. I think they are a legit 42.4/42.5 team but the London track was very very quick. That said, they did finally boot out Pohrebnyak so who knows!
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Re: Moscow 2013 World Championship Predictions

Postby eldanielfire » Mon Jul 29, 2013 4:54 am

iain wrote:
eldanielfire wrote:
iain wrote:I think you misunderstood, I basically agree with that paragraph :P



Ah, my mistake. I'm quite protective of the Ukraines sprinting achievements because it's so nice to have a genuinely good European team competing for medals. I'm expecting them to go sub-42 in Moscow, weather permitting.


I wouldn't go that far. I think they are a legit 42.4/42.5 team but the London track was very very quick. That said, they did finally boot out Pohrebnyak so who knows!


Without Pohrebnyak, who was only in due to injuries, they are a 42 flat team. Even given the London track they were 1/3 second (20+m?) ahead of their nearest competitors. That isn't even close. Given Jamaica's massive loss to doping this year as I said the Ukraine are closer to Jamaica then the rest of the world is to the Ukraine.

In reality, weather, batten changes etc will be a potential factor.
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Re: Moscow 2013 World Championship Predictions

Postby leoesharkey » Mon Jul 29, 2013 5:03 am

Men's Shot; Whiting, Hoffa, Majewski
Woman's Shot; Adams, Schwanitz, Carter

Men's Discus; Harting, Malachowski,Wierig
Woman's Discus; Perkovic, Muller, Barrios :D
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Re: Moscow 2013 World Championship Predictions

Postby Powell » Mon Jul 29, 2013 5:28 am

Rothosen wrote:Has anyone ever done the unique triple Faith Kipyegon is attempting?

2009 - World Youth Champion
2011 - World Junior Champion
2013 -World Champion


Yelena Isinbayeva, for one
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Re: Moscow 2013 World Championship Predictions

Postby iain » Mon Jul 29, 2013 5:43 am

eldanielfire wrote:
iain wrote:
eldanielfire wrote:
iain wrote:I think you misunderstood, I basically agree with that paragraph :P



Ah, my mistake. I'm quite protective of the Ukraines sprinting achievements because it's so nice to have a genuinely good European team competing for medals. I'm expecting them to go sub-42 in Moscow, weather permitting.


I wouldn't go that far. I think they are a legit 42.4/42.5 team but the London track was very very quick. That said, they did finally boot out Pohrebnyak so who knows!


Without Pohrebnyak, who was only in due to injuries, they are a 42 flat team. Even given the London track they were 1/3 second (20+m?) ahead of their nearest competitors. That isn't even close. Given Jamaica's massive loss to doping this year as I said the Ukraine are closer to Jamaica then the rest of the world is to the Ukraine.

In reality, weather, batten changes etc will be a potential factor.


I'm not sure it was due to injuries TBH, their coaches seem to have an attachment to her (sort of like Porter I guess). I am not saying they aren't way ahead of the competition, just that the times were much quicker than they would be elsewhere. Also, not sure swapping out Pyatachenko will make a huge difference ...
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Re: Moscow 2013 World Championship Predictions

Postby eldanielfire » Mon Jul 29, 2013 6:02 am

iain wrote:
I'm not sure it was due to injuries TBH, their coaches seem to have an attachment to her (sort of like Porter I guess). I am not saying they aren't way ahead of the competition, just that the times were much quicker than they would be elsewhere. Also, not sure swapping out Pyatachenko will make a huge difference ...


I'm sure in 2011 Elyzaveta Bryzgina was injured and at the time European silver medallist and relay gold medallist already.
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Re: Moscow 2013 World Championship Predictions

Postby tm71 » Mon Jul 29, 2013 7:35 am

jamboy wrote:Since the last Diamond League is now completed(London), we can now have our official Moscow 213 WC predictions underway.

Here is mine.

Men
100m - Bolt
200m - Bolt
400m - Kirani James
4 x 100m relay - Jamaica


Women
100 - Fraser
200 - Felix
400 - Montsho
4 x 100m - USA, Jamaica


Entire sport reduced to 4 events !
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Re: Moscow 2013 World Championship Predictions

Postby norunner » Mon Jul 29, 2013 8:13 am

Powell wrote:
Rothosen wrote:Has anyone ever done the unique triple Faith Kipyegon is attempting?

2009 - World Youth Champion
2011 - World Junior Champion
2013 -World Champion


Yelena Isinbayeva, for one
Storl did it too, but everyone predicting a medal for him: He has had technical problems all season long and it would be a small miracle if he medals in Moscow.
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Re: Moscow 2013 World Championship Predictions

Postby LopenUupunut » Mon Jul 29, 2013 8:58 am

I stand by my Storl pick. He's a brilliant big meet performer 8-)
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Re: Moscow 2013 World Championship Predictions

Postby leoesharkey » Mon Jul 29, 2013 9:06 am

I love Storl and his short-long technique, the last of the east german style gliders, but he has looked terrible all season, and there are four europeans and two americans bang on 21m and Germane Lauro from Argentina, but the silver and gold will be an all american battle between Hoffa and Whiting, Majewski is recovering nicely from a shoulder opp and he has said he will be ready in Moscow, but top two aside there is the width of an envelope between 3-10 in the world, it will be fun ! :D
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Re: Moscow 2013 World Championship Predictions

Postby Powell » Mon Jul 29, 2013 9:16 am

I still say Storl has a much better chance than Majewski, as much as I would like It to be the othe way round.
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Re: Moscow 2013 World Championship Predictions

Postby LopenUupunut » Mon Jul 29, 2013 9:46 am

It's the same thing practically every year: the Americans have the best SBs coming in. A lot of the time they do win, but less often than the world lists would suggest - and even when one of them wins, another very often disappoints.

Thus my prediction: one of Hoffa or Whiting takes gold while the other fails to medal :) Neither of them has the big meet record of Storl or Majewski (or even Nelson); while Hoffa is a World Champion (and both of them are World Indoor Champions), they've missed out in major meets more often than not.

Of course, they can afford to be off their very best and still be medal threats; 21.15 might be enough, and I can see both of them getting that. But a Whiting-Hoffa 1-2 would likely require more.
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Re: Moscow 2013 World Championship Predictions

Postby 26mi235 » Mon Jul 29, 2013 10:07 am

LopenUupunut wrote:mDT: Harting, Małachowski, Hadadi


I think Hadadi is not competing for Iran because of unhappiness with his federation (but not with the country, although he is living/training outside (US?).

Sally has won one race, in 12.65; that is a bit thin to project her to winning the event based on past triumphs (she barely won last year despite being in much better shape).

Martinez has shown very good form and might run down her teammate but Gold and Silver seem a bit out of reach in the w800; similarly with Simpson in the w1500.

The w10,000 has been 'thinned out' a little bit; it will be interesting to see how that race develops.

The womens jumps will be interesting; the HJ might be very entertaining; the PV has three also probably above the rest, but the inconsistency of the event may affect the placings (although home territory should help more than in the increased pressure will hurt Isi). The LJ might have third over 7m; not sure a fourth will do so. Reese is inconsistent -- except for in championships. The mens TJ should be much better than the womens.
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Re: Moscow 2013 World Championship Predictions

Postby Rothosen » Mon Jul 29, 2013 11:25 am

norunner wrote:
Powell wrote:
Rothosen wrote:Has anyone ever done the unique triple Faith Kipyegon is attempting?

2009 - World Youth Champion
2011 - World Junior Champion
2013 -World Champion

Yelena Isinbayeva, for one
Storl did it too, but everyone predicting a medal for him: He has had technical problems all season long and it would be a small miracle if he medals in Moscow.


Sorry. I meant like a three-peat. Storl was 15th in his first WC and Isenbayeva didn't go for whatever reason in 2001. In 2003 she did get a bronze, something certainly within the reach of 19yo Kipyegon.
Any others that might have done it three in a row?
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Re: Moscow 2013 World Championship Predictions

Postby tgs3 » Mon Jul 29, 2013 11:48 am

Rothosen wrote:Has anyone ever done the unique triple Faith Kipyegon is attempting?

2009 - World Youth Champion
2011 - World Junior Champion
2013 -World Champion

I think you got the years a bit wrong for Kipyegon, which is confusing people perhaps. It should be:

2011 - Youth WC
2012 - Junior WC
2013 - WC (possible)

Kirani James did this "threepeat" already:

2009 - Youth WC
2010 - Junio WC
2011 - WC

For good measure, he also won silvers at the 2007 Youth WC and 2008 Junior WC. Then he won gold again in 2012 and will most likely win a 5th gold this year in Moscow.
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Re: Moscow 2013 World Championship Predictions

Postby norunner » Mon Jul 29, 2013 5:49 pm

leoesharkey wrote:Men's Shot; Whiting, Hoffa, Majewski
Woman's Shot; Adams, Schwanitz, Carter

Men's Discus; Harting, Malachowski,Wierig
Woman's Discus; Perkovic, Muller, Barrios :D
I'm German and i'm not even as optimistic as you. :wink: . I don't think Müller is going to medal, she has had a difficult year, was injured and lost a couple of months. If you look at her performances since may, the german champs was the only competition where she did ok. Until a few days ago i would have said Anna Rüh has a better chance of medaling than Müller, but unfortunately Rüh is injured and won't be in Moscow.
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Re: Moscow 2013 World Championship Predictions

Postby Rothosen » Tue Jul 30, 2013 12:00 am

Tgs3 Thanks for straightening me out. As for James...wow
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Re: Moscow 2013 World Championship Predictions

Postby Powell » Tue Jul 30, 2013 12:59 am

LopenUupunut wrote:Thus my prediction: one of Hoffa or Whiting takes gold while the other fails to medal :) Neither of them has the big meet record of Storl or Majewski (or even Nelson)


Majewski's record is actually a bit mixed; remember how he failed big time at the last WC? Storl's, on the other hand, is absolutely flawless, and he regularly sets big PBs/SBs in the most important competition of the year.
Frankly, with the way Majewski has been throwing this year, I'm shocked at how many people are still expecting him to medal. Yes, he improved significantly after a terrible start to the season. But since he threw 20.89 and 20.70 in mid-June, he's mostly been stuck between 20.00 and 20.50 for the past month, except for one attempt at the NC. It's going to take a major improvement from him to get anywhere near the podium.
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Re: Moscow 2013 World Championship Predictions

Postby LopenUupunut » Tue Jul 30, 2013 1:34 am

Powell wrote:Majewski's record is actually a bit mixed; remember how he failed big time at the last WC?
True, but he's far more likely to find a sudden extra 30cm than Hoffa or Whiting.

His SB now is 20.89. His SB ahead of Beijing was 20.97 while the world list was topped by three guys at 22.00-22.12... It's true 2008 was somewhat different in that he'd had a couple big fouls that showed his potential, but after so many years at 21+ a lot of people will just assume the potential's there now as well.
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Re: Moscow 2013 World Championship Predictions

Postby norunner » Tue Jul 30, 2013 4:00 am

Powell wrote:Majewski's record is actually a bit mixed; remember how he failed big time at the last WC? Storl's, on the other hand, is absolutely flawless, and he regularly sets big PBs/SBs in the most important competition of the year.
Regarding Storl: The difference this year is the amount of fouls he produces. He's had several competition with only one valid attempt and even he won't be able to win a medal if he can't produce a valid 21.50+ and that's not easy to do if all those foul attempts force you to hold back.
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Re: Moscow 2013 World Championship Predictions

Postby Powell » Tue Jul 30, 2013 4:29 am

LopenUupunut wrote:His SB now is 20.89. His SB ahead of Beijing was 20.97 while the world list was topped by three guys at 22.00-22.12...


True, but if you look at his full record from that season, he was consistent at a higher level than in 2013 and was doing much better in terms of competitiveness in major meets on the circuit - never lower than 3rd (2nd Doha, 1st Moscow, 2nd Villeneuve, 1st Madrid, 3rd London, 1st Monaco - most of of those meets had top-level fields in them AFAIR). Contrast that with this year: 6th Doha, 6th NY, 10th Rome, 4th Birmingham, 5th Lausanne.
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Re: Moscow 2013 World Championship Predictions

Postby agassiz » Tue Jul 30, 2013 6:43 am

Any reason why no one has predicted the 3000 m s.chase.
Here is my pred for this event.

Mens
1 kipruto
2 kemboi
3 mehkissi benauod

Womens

1 zaripova
2 ghirib
3 chemos

Agree or disagree
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Re: Moscow 2013 World Championship Predictions

Postby 26mi235 » Tue Jul 30, 2013 7:01 am

Generally agree; could you elaborate on the 2/3 pick on the womens side?
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