Morsi Out


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Morsi Out

Postby 26mi235 » Wed Jul 03, 2013 12:57 pm

Morsi Out

see your local/national/international news outlet.
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Re: Morsi Out

Postby gh » Wed Jul 03, 2013 1:53 pm

and be thankful you're not on a tour of the pyramids.
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Re: Morsi Out

Postby kuha » Wed Jul 03, 2013 2:52 pm

gh wrote:and be thankful you're not on a tour of the pyramids.


This was a dream of mine, which we did in March 2001....a political eternity ago....
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Re: Morsi Out

Postby Flumpy » Wed Jul 03, 2013 3:41 pm

I'm torn about this.

On the one hand I completely agree with the concerns of the protesters.

On the other hand, this isn't how democracy if supposed to work (And I fear the army's involvement could lead to much worse in the future).
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Re: Morsi Out

Postby catson52 » Wed Jul 03, 2013 4:37 pm

Flumpy wrote:I'm torn about this.

On the one hand I completely agree with the concerns of the protesters.

On the other hand, this isn't how democracy if supposed to work (And I fear the army's involvement could lead to much worse in the future).


Well put, and I am afraid the last part is likely to be most important in the coming months/few years.
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Re: Morsi Out

Postby Pego » Wed Jul 03, 2013 5:50 pm

Egypt has over 5000 years of recorded history. None of it came close to remotely resemble democracy.
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Re: Morsi Out

Postby jazzcyclist » Wed Jul 03, 2013 6:52 pm

This sets a bad precedent for Egypt. People in mature democracies accept that politicians are going to renege on campaign promises from time to time, but they usually wait until the next election to vent their anger at the ballot box. If the American people knew that all they had to do to get the military to overthrow the President is take to the streets, no American President would ever serve out a term. Certainly, Republicans would have been able to put millions into the streets to remove Obama during his first term and Democrats would have done the same thing to W. Furthermore, Morsi's supporters in the Muslim Brotherhood will do everything in their power to make it impossible for the next President to govern if they lose power in this manner.
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Re: Morsi Out

Postby mump boy » Thu Jul 04, 2013 1:02 am

It took most countries hundreds of years and many revolutions, coups etc before becoming stable democracies. Why are we expecting Egypt to manage it in one year ?

The elections weren't particularly democratic in the first place and his actions after were no better than many dictators

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree ... grab-egypt

It is not only incumbent on the people to uphold the traditions of democracy but also the governments, Morsi didn't do that and is now facing the consequences

And lets not pretend because a lot of countries have more subtle ways of manipulating the political process they are not essentially the same thing
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Re: Morsi Out

Postby deroki » Thu Jul 04, 2013 2:52 am

Well said Mump!
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Re: Morsi Out

Postby jazzcyclist » Thu Jul 04, 2013 4:08 am

mump boy wrote:The elections weren't particularly democratic in the first place and his actions after were no better than many dictators

I agree with you about Morsi governing like a pharaoh, but I disagree with you about the election being undemocratic. The Muslim Brotherhood certainly couldn't have been involved in rigging the election since the military was still in power when it was held, and it's unfathomable to think that the military would rig the election for the Brotherhood. As matter of fact, since all the pre-election polls favored Morsi, there was fear that the military would steal the election from him, especially after the military stalled for over a week before it announced the results. It may be true that Morsi was the only non-military backed candidate that had any substantial organization behind him, but it's not the Brotherhood's fault that they were organized and the other parties weren't. The bottom line is that the Egyptian election was as free and fair as a typical Western nation election, and none of Morsi's critics ever accused him of stealing it.

Before the election, Morsi cut deals with secular groups, such as the National Salvation Front, and once he was elected, he threw them under the bus. Since he only won with 51% of the vote, they know that he couldn't have won without them, and they're outraged that a guy they helped put in power would renege on his campaign promises so completely, without even throwing them a bone or two. I think what Egypt needs is a parliamentary system of government. If Morsi came to power via a parliamentary system, he wouldn't be able to renege on his promises to the groups he made deals with because rather than take to the streets, they would just collapse his government and call for another election, and so he would have to honor those promises in order to keep his government from collapsing.
Last edited by jazzcyclist on Thu Jul 04, 2013 4:24 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Morsi Out

Postby Marlow » Thu Jul 04, 2013 4:20 am

jazzcyclist wrote:This sets a bad precedent for Egypt. People in mature democracies accept that politicians are going to renege on campaign promises from time to time, but they usually wait until the next election to vent their anger at the ballot box.

That might be a 'chicken or the egg' scenario. The bad precedent has already been there, and that's why this happened. Stable democracies create great momentum in favor of political change rather than military or mob intervention. Catch-22: you can't have a stable democracy until you've established a stable democracy.
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Re: Morsi Out

Postby jazzcyclist » Thu Jul 04, 2013 4:27 am

Marlow wrote:
jazzcyclist wrote:This sets a bad precedent for Egypt. People in mature democracies accept that politicians are going to renege on campaign promises from time to time, but they usually wait until the next election to vent their anger at the ballot box.

That might be a 'chicken or the egg' scenario. The bad precedent has already been there, and that's why this happened. Stable democracies create great momentum in favor of political change rather than military or mob intervention. Catch-22: you can't have a stable democracy until you've established a stable democracy.

The difference is that two years ago, the mob/military removed an unelected dictator from power, but this time they removed a President who was freely and fairly elected.
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Re: Morsi Out

Postby gh » Thu Jul 04, 2013 5:45 am

I'm shuddering, waiting for Julian Assange to drop the other shoe on this one.
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Re: Morsi Out

Postby jeremyp » Thu Jul 04, 2013 6:09 am

I lived in Cairo in the early 50's when the first military dictatorship kicked out the King (Faroukh) and after Mubarak was ousted I predicted that they would take over Egypt again if their elite status as "the power behind the power" was in jeopardy. This time I think they will not put one of their own in power and will allow elections. The issue is that the Muslim brotherhood and the Salafists (right of the brotherhood) are far better organized politically and could win again. I suspect that the constitution will be tweaked to avoid this.
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Re: Morsi Out

Postby jeremyp » Thu Jul 04, 2013 6:10 am

Pego wrote:Egypt has over 5000 years of recorded history. None of it came close to remotely resemble democracy.

Tut tut!
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Re: Morsi Out

Postby jeremyp » Thu Jul 04, 2013 6:18 am

gh wrote:and be thankful you're not on a tour of the pyramids.

A friend of ours went to Israel and then to Egypt last summer. We told her she was nuts. She traveled by bus from the Israeli border to Cairo surrounded by armed SUV's, and had bodyguards on their tour of the Pyramids. Not my idea of fun.
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Re: Morsi Out

Postby jeremyp » Thu Jul 04, 2013 6:23 am

What a revolution!
there have been 91 incidents of sexual assault in Tahrir Square over the past four days. Groups of men plan these attacks carefully. Some say the attacks are staged by thugs who are abusing a security vacuum and confident of escaping prosecution. Others say the assaults are organized to scare women from joining protests.


Read more: http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/origina ... z2Y5REHccX
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Re: Morsi Out

Postby Marlow » Thu Jul 04, 2013 6:32 am

jazzcyclist wrote:The difference is that two years ago, the mob/military removed an unelected dictator from power, but this time they removed a President who was freely and fairly elected.

Mach's nichts.
Their 'precedent' is an overthrow of power. The idea of a constitutional democracy is just that, an idea. Their MO is the what just happened. My Catch-22 above is what they are facing now, and for some time.
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Re: Morsi Out

Postby jazzcyclist » Thu Jul 04, 2013 6:56 am

Marlow wrote:
jazzcyclist wrote:The difference is that two years ago, the mob/military removed an unelected dictator from power, but this time they removed a President who was freely and fairly elected.

Mach's nichts.
Their 'precedent' is an overthrow of power.

But every democracy had to overthrow power at some time its history, including the U.S.
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Re: Morsi Out

Postby jazzcyclist » Thu Jul 04, 2013 7:06 am

jeremyp wrote:What a revolution!
there have been 91 incidents of sexual assault in Tahrir Square over the past four days. Groups of men plan these attacks carefully. Some say the attacks are staged by thugs who are abusing a security vacuum and confident of escaping prosecution. Others say the assaults are organized to scare women from joining protests.


Read more: http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/origina ... z2Y5REHccX

Before Lara Logan was attacked two years ago, there were signals and warnings that Tahir Square was about to become unsafe for women, and male protesters begin to send their female relatives home for their own protection. Christiane Amanpour and Katie Couric wisely heeded these warnings and got the hell out of there, but unfortunately, Logan allowed her journalist instincts and bravery to blind her judgment and she stayed. As the saying goes, "discretion is the better part of valor".
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Re: Morsi Out

Postby jazzcyclist » Thu Jul 04, 2013 8:04 am

And if anyone believed that the military were a bunch of Jeffersonian democrats, this should bring them back to reality:
Security forces raided the Cairo offices of Al Jazeera's Egyptian television channel on Wednesday and detailed at least five staff, hours after the army toppled Islamist President Mohamed Mursi, a journalist at the station said.

Karim El-Assiuti told Reuters his colleagues at the Al Jazeera Mubasher Misr channel were arrested while working in the studio. The station was prevented from broadcasting from a pro-Mursi rally and its crew there was also detained, he said.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/07/0 ... _ref=media

I think it's telling that Al Jazeera was allowed to operate freely while Morsi was in power, but not under the military either now or when Mubarak was in power.
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Re: Morsi Out

Postby TN1965 » Thu Jul 04, 2013 9:21 am

jazzcyclist wrote:People in mature democracies accept that politicians are going to renege on campaign promises from time to time, but they usually wait until the next election to vent their anger at the ballot box.


Because they believe the next election will be reasonably fair. Egyptian people did not believe that.
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Re: Morsi Out

Postby Marlow » Thu Jul 04, 2013 10:28 am

jazzcyclist wrote:
Marlow wrote:
jazzcyclist wrote:The difference is that two years ago, the mob/military removed an unelected dictator from power, but this time they removed a President who was freely and fairly elected.

Mach's nichts.
Their 'precedent' is an overthrow of power.

But every democracy had to overthrow power at some time its history, including the U.S.

You're buttressing my point. Now that we have 250 years of momentum going, it's easy for us to maintain that 'status quo'. They have no such momentum.
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Re: Morsi Out

Postby jazzcyclist » Thu Jul 04, 2013 10:45 am

Marlow wrote:You're buttressing my point. Now that we have 250 years of momentum going, it's easy for us to maintain that 'status quo'. They have no such momentum.

No I'm not agreeing with you. Earlier you called Egypt's 2011 revolution/overthrow a bad precedent indistinguishable from yesterday's coup. I disagree with that sentiment. The 2011 revolution was a good precedent that has happened at the beginning stages of every successful democracy in history. However, yesterday's military cup is a bad precedent that has no historical analogies in successful democracies.

Overthrow of Unelected Dictator Military Coup of Freely and Fairly Elected President
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Re: Morsi Out

Postby Marlow » Thu Jul 04, 2013 10:52 am

jazzcyclist wrote:
Marlow wrote:You're buttressing my point. Now that we have 250 years of momentum going, it's easy for us to maintain that 'status quo'. They have no such momentum.

No I'm not agreeing with you. Earlier you called Egypt's 2011 revolution/overthrow a bad precedent indistinguishable from yesterday's coup. I disagree with that sentiment. The 2011 revolution was a good precedent that has happened at the beginning stages of every successful democracy in history. However, yesterday's military cup is a bad precedent that has no historical analogies in successful democracies.

The Arab Spring was just the 2012 version of many, many previous regime changes in the region. The current in-thing is a 'democratic overthrow'. Whether that takes root remains to be seen. Sorry, I see no appreciable difference between the deposing of Mubarak and that of Morsi.
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Re: Morsi Out

Postby jazzcyclist » Thu Jul 04, 2013 11:53 am

Marlow wrote:Sorry, I see no appreciable difference between the deposing of Mubarak and that of Morsi.

And I see no differences between the overthrow of Mubarak and the overthrow of King George III. Happy July 4th Marlow.
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Re: Morsi Out

Postby TN1965 » Thu Jul 04, 2013 12:10 pm

The US democracy owes much to George Washington who voluntarily stepped down, after being unopposed twice.

... as well as to Jefferson who organized the opposition to challenge Adams... and to Adams who lost his re-election! :)

Getting back to Egypt, the biggest mistake was to hold the last election too early, before the secular groups could organize themselves.
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Re: Morsi Out

Postby jeremyp » Thu Jul 04, 2013 12:12 pm

TN1965 wrote:The US democracy owes much to George Washington who voluntarily stepped down, after being unopposed twice.

... as well as to Jefferson who organized the opposition to challenge Adams... and to Adams who lost his re-election! :)

Getting back to Egypt, the biggest mistake was to hold the last election too early, before the secular groups could organize themselves.

The secular groups cannot organize themselves. You have the Muslim brotherhood followed by salafists followed by cats who can't be herded...yet.
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Re: Morsi Out

Postby TN1965 » Thu Jul 04, 2013 12:18 pm

jeremyp wrote:The secular groups cannot organize themselves. You have the Muslim brotherhood followed by salafists followed by cats who can't be herded...yet.


Cannot organize under what time frame? Indefinitely?
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Re: Morsi Out

Postby jeremyp » Thu Jul 04, 2013 12:34 pm

TN1965 wrote:
jeremyp wrote:The secular groups cannot organize themselves. You have the Muslim brotherhood followed by salafists followed by cats who can't be herded...yet.


Cannot organize under what time frame? Indefinitely?

No! But the MB has had decades to organize and the seculars have many different faces. What is needed is a good Parliamentary system as someone else pointed out, but then one might get what Israel has got: minority parties wagging the country.
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Re: Morsi Out

Postby jeremyp » Thu Jul 04, 2013 1:09 pm

Now they're arresting Morsi and top MB people. This goes from bad to worse for rule of law, which has to be the cornerstone of any functional democracy.
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Re: Morsi Out

Postby Pego » Thu Jul 04, 2013 1:12 pm

jazzcyclist wrote:
Marlow wrote:Sorry, I see no appreciable difference between the deposing of Mubarak and that of Morsi.

And I see no differences between the overthrow of Mubarak and the overthrow of King George III. Happy July 4th Marlow.


I do. To overthrow a colonial power thousands of miles away beyond an ocean is not remotely the same as overthrowing your own ruler just down the street. If you compared Mubarak with Louis XVI, of course... :wink: .
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Re: Morsi Out

Postby tandfman » Thu Jul 04, 2013 1:27 pm

Headline du Jour:

http://www.newseum.org/todaysfrontpages ... ef_pge=lst

(Probably won't link to the right headline after today, July 4. They update the front page displays every day.)
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Re: Morsi Out

Postby mump boy » Thu Jul 04, 2013 2:42 pm

jazzcyclist wrote:
mump boy wrote:The elections weren't particularly democratic in the first place and his actions after were no better than many dictators

I agree with you about Morsi governing like a pharaoh, but I disagree with you about the election being undemocratic. The Muslim Brotherhood certainly couldn't have been involved in rigging the election since the military was still in power when it was held, and it's unfathomable to think that the military would rig the election for the Brotherhood. As matter of fact, since all the pre-election polls favored Morsi, there was fear that the military would steal the election from him, especially after the military stalled for over a week before it announced the results. It may be true that Morsi was the only non-military backed candidate that had any substantial organization behind him, but it's not the Brotherhood's fault that they were organized and the other parties weren't. The bottom line is that the Egyptian election was as free and fair as a typical Western nation election, and none of Morsi's critics ever accused him of stealing it.

Before the election, Morsi cut deals with secular groups, such as the National Salvation Front, and once he was elected, he threw them under the bus. Since he only won with 51% of the vote, they know that he couldn't have won without them, and they're outraged that a guy they helped put in power would renege on his campaign promises so completely, without even throwing them a bone or two. I think what Egypt needs is a parliamentary system of government. If Morsi came to power via a parliamentary system, he wouldn't be able to renege on his promises to the groups he made deals with because rather than take to the streets, they would just collapse his government and call for another election, and so he would have to honor those promises in order to keep his government from collapsing.


I didn't say Morsi was responsible for the lack of Democracy but there wasn't a wide range of potential candidates allowed to stand. Morsi just came out as the least worse by a very narrow margin.

Democracy will be a learning curve for both the people and governments
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Re: Morsi Out

Postby jazzcyclist » Thu Jul 04, 2013 4:54 pm

TN1965 wrote:Getting back to Egypt, the biggest mistake was to hold the last election too early, before the secular groups could organize themselves.

The election was held 17 months after Mubarak's downfall. How long do you think they should have waited? The military deserves a lot of the blame. They were so hellbent on getting one of Mubarak's cronies elected that they put up a maze of qualification restrictions that the Muslim Brotherhood was only group organized enough to navigate through. They also did their best to obstruct Morsi at the beginning of his reign.
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Re: Morsi Out

Postby jazzcyclist » Thu Jul 04, 2013 5:00 pm

jeremyp wrote:Now they're arresting Morsi and top MB people. This goes from bad to worse for rule of law, which has to be the cornerstone of any functional democracy.

They're also shutting down all the independent TV stations that were allowed under Morsi. I don't think it will be long before the protesters start regretting this military coup. As a matter of fact, some of them are already starting complaining about the military's power grab, because if they can do it to a President that you don't like, what's to stop them from doing it to a President that you do like?
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Re: Morsi Out

Postby TN1965 » Thu Jul 04, 2013 8:25 pm

jazzcyclist wrote:The election was held 17 months after Mubarak's downfall. How long do you think they should have waited? The military deserves a lot of the blame. They were so hellbent on getting one of Mubarak's cronies elected that they put up a maze of qualification restrictions that the Muslim Brotherhood was only group organized enough to navigate through. They also did their best to obstruct Morsi at the beginning of his reign.


17 months is a very short period for any group to get organized after being co-opted or suppressed for decades.

I think one of the problems of our time is that we have an incredibly short attention span. Democracy took many decades and even centuries to take root in many countries where it is stable today. It took the United States 189 years from the Declaration of Independence to the Voting Rights Act of 1965. (And it included a period in which those who did not like the electoral outcome tried to secede from the Union.) Britain needed seven centuries from Magna Carta to the Representation of the People Act 1928. Those things did not happen in a few years.

And there were many setbacks. The French First Republic was followed by emperors and restorations before it reached the Third Republic almost a century later.

Democracy either takes a very long, gradual process or somewhat shorter but tumultuous process. Neither is pretty to watch.
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Re: Morsi Out

Postby Per Andersen » Thu Jul 04, 2013 9:10 pm

jazzcyclist wrote: Morsi's supporters in the Muslim Brotherhood will do everything in their power to make it impossible for the next President to govern if they lose power in this manner.

In power they were well under way to changing the country into a Islamist state. Morsi did nothing to reign them in. Had to go. How can Islamists run a democracy?
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Re: Morsi Out

Postby jazzcyclist » Fri Jul 05, 2013 4:21 am

Per Andersen wrote:
jazzcyclist wrote: Morsi's supporters in the Muslim Brotherhood will do everything in their power to make it impossible for the next President to govern if they lose power in this manner.

In power they were well under way to changing the country into a Islamist state. Morsi did nothing to reign them in. Had to go. How can Islamists run a democracy?

Well, Islamists are running Turkey and Likudniks, the Jewish equivalent of the Brotherhood, are running Israel. The difference is that those are parliamentary systems which is what I think is needed in Egypt. Under a parliamentary systems, Morsi would have been forced to share power with some of the secular groups in order to put together a coalition, and if he tried to pursue too radical an agenda, the secularists would resign and his government would collapse.
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Re: Morsi Out

Postby jeremyp » Fri Jul 05, 2013 1:25 pm

jazzcyclist wrote:
Per Andersen wrote:
jazzcyclist wrote: Morsi's supporters in the Muslim Brotherhood will do everything in their power to make it impossible for the next President to govern if they lose power in this manner.

In power they were well under way to changing the country into a Islamist state. Morsi did nothing to reign them in. Had to go. How can Islamists run a democracy?

Well, Islamists are running Turkey and Likudniks, the Jewish equivalent of the Brotherhood, are running Israel. The difference is that those are parliamentary systems which is what I think is needed in Egypt. Under a parliamentary systems, Morsi would have been forced to share power with some of the secular groups in order to put together a coalition, and if he tried to pursue too radical an agenda, the secularists would resign and his government would collapse.

And then there's Iraq! We instituted a "democracy" and now it's falling apart and the next Prime Minister may be Moqtada al Sadr. He has the largest voting bloc in Parliament. Al Sadr/Democracy is an oxymoron. The MB in Egypt disavowed violence in order to get into politics, but now if they get violent, and their rank and file are ungovernable if the leaders are in jail, there will be an Algerian type civil war. In fact what happened in Egypt mirrors what happened in Algeria when a democratically elected islamic government was never allowed to hold office and the country is now under the thumb of the military. In the middle east and Pakistan and Iran the stronger the military the less likely there will be a democracy, because these militaries are elite officers clubs that have a vested interest in being in charge of the economy and the inevitable handouts.
For Democracy to occur the culture has to change and Islamic countries have always had authoritarian leaders as part of their makeup.
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