Formidable Barriers to Be Challenged


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Formidable Barriers to Be Challenged

Postby aaronk » Fri May 10, 2013 3:04 pm

Recently, there's been threads on the 2 hour marathon and the 4 minute mile.
That got me thinking (since the Doha meet ended!).
What "barriers" are possible, even if years in the future, in our lifetime (if you're, say, 60ish!)?
Here's a few I came up with, at random.

Men
9.50 (Many think Bolt is the only one who could get it. Is the guy who runs 9.49 now in grade school?)
19.00 (I DO believe Bolt--or Blake--could go 18.99. But when?)
43.00 (It would take a guy who can do 200 in under 19.50.)
1:40.00 (Rudisha? Or one of the young 'uns?)
3:40.00 (For the mile. No one's been under 3:46 since 2001, but there's going to be....soon. It would take a 1:41 or 1:40 800 guy to do it.
12:30 and 26:00 5&10K (About 8 & 18 seconds need to be cut. Which 1500 guy will try it?)
7:45 SC (I skipped the 7:50 barrier, because I believe there's a Kenyan living now who will go under 7:50...soon!)
8 foot HJ (Okay, it's been done. But that was 20 years ago! Will it ever be done again?)
20-0 PV (See HJ.)
75-0 SP (And legally??)
Some relay barriers: 7:00 4X800, 14:20 4X1500 (3:35 avg), 15:20 4Xmile (3:50 avg), and the most difficult, the 9:00 DMR (2:45, 44, 1:42, 3:49??).

I'll do the women in a separate post.
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Re: Formidable Barriers to Be Challenged

Postby aaronk » Fri May 10, 2013 3:33 pm

Women

10.50 (But without gale force winds at her back!! :shock: The woman who does it is still a girl, and maybe not yet in HS.)
21.00 (I've always believed you can double your 100 time to estimate your 200 potential. I may be wrong, but it will take someone who can run the 100 in under 10.60.)
48.00 (Yes, it's been done before, by 2 women. But will it again?? Maybe someone like Shaunae Miller??)
1:50.0 (I may be nuts, but I firmly believe it's possible.)
4:10 mile (I WAS going to say the 4:00 mile, but.....one step at a time!! She'd have to pass 1500 enroute in 3:54 or faster. Aregawi?? Kipyegon, who's just 19? And yes, Mary Cain?? :) )
8:00 3000 (8:15 would be easier, of course. Never been done by a non-Chinese, but will it? It would take a 3:55 1500 woman moving up. 8:15, that is!)
14:00 and 29:00 5&10K (The woman who runs 13:59 will be able to run 28:59, IMO. I'm surprised Defar or Dibaba haven't gone sub-14:10 already!! Based on their PR's at 5K, both should NOW be capable of breaking 29:30.)
2:15:00 (Yes, Paula's record can go. It will take a sub-30 10K woman to do it.)
12.20 100H (Devers had the speed. Which sub-11 100 woman will try it??)
7-0 HJ (Amy Acuff used to talk about it. But can a woman actually jump 7 feet?)
25-0 LJ (Heike Drechsler did it once, wind-aided.)
17-0 PV (Jenn?? Yelena? Yarisley? A girl now in HS??)
75-0 SP (Adams?)
250-0 JT (It was done with the old jav, why not the new one?)
Only relay barrier I can think of might be the 4X1500 in 16:00.

Your thoughts....on any or all of the above??
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Re: Formidable Barriers to Be Challenged

Postby jhc68 » Fri May 10, 2013 7:25 pm

Never say never... I have always been tickled that Brutus Hamiliton endorsed the idea that the max human performance possible, ever, in the mile would be @4:01 in 1935. Then, 20 years later, Hamilton coached Don Bowden to the first American sub-four mile!

Still, it will take a very, very long time to meet all the marks that you describe. It will all get done eventually, IF people keep competing long enough. I mean IF the social structures and interest in athletics is maintained two or three more generations. My intuition,too, is that 20-30-40 years from now if track survives much more advanced PEDs will be legal in high level competition and the record books will be deluged. Never say never...
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Re: Formidable Barriers to Be Challenged

Postby chivez » Fri May 10, 2013 9:35 pm

I believe...
Mens:
100m: sub 9.5s will not happen his year. I don't think Bolt or Blake can do this.
200m: sub 19s will not happen this year. I don't think Bolt or Blake can do this.
400m: Sub 43 can happen - Kirani James most likely. It will NOT take someone who can run 19.5s 200m - only someone who can run 2 back to back 200m sub 21.5s. Someone with amazing speed endurance, first 200m say 20-21s, second 22-23s. Kirani James is your man! Watch this space.
800m: Sub 1.4... will not happen this year, Rudisha only one capable, but he now needs to be challenged to push him that bit further.

4x100m may go again this year, to Jamaica if they get the batton around again. I can not see the USA beating them. Bolt/Blake/Powell/Carter/Frater.. plus the new ones is too much of a formidable team for anyone. Gay/Gatlin/Rogers/Bailey/Dix.

Triple Jump WR may go this year. If we get this big guns all competing well and bouncing off each others performances. As every year recently been excited about this one.
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Re: Formidable Barriers to Be Challenged

Postby 26mi235 » Fri May 10, 2013 10:26 pm

I can see the Americans beating the Jamaicans (not highly likely, but not extremely difficult), but if they do it will be in AmR but not WR time, whereas very good passing can get the Jamaicans yet another WR.
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Re: Formidable Barriers to Be Challenged

Postby aaronk » Sat May 11, 2013 12:31 am

chivez wrote:I believe...
Mens:
100m: sub 9.5s will not happen his year. I don't think Bolt or Blake can do this.
200m: sub 19s will not happen this year. I don't think Bolt or Blake can do this.
400m: Sub 43 can happen - Kirani James most likely. It will NOT take someone who can run 19.5s 200m - only someone who can run 2 back to back 200m sub 21.5s. Someone with amazing speed endurance, first 200m say 20-21s, second 22-23s. Kirani James is your man! Watch this space.
800m: Sub 1.4... will not happen this year, Rudisha only one capable, but he now needs to be challenged to push him that bit further.

4x100m may go again this year, to Jamaica if they get the batton around again. I can not see the USA beating them. Bolt/Blake/Powell/Carter/Frater.. plus the new ones is too much of a formidable team for anyone. Gay/Gatlin/Rogers/Bailey/Dix.

Triple Jump WR may go this year. If we get this big guns all competing well and bouncing off each others performances. As every year recently been excited about this one.


Re the 100/200: I wasn't saying it would happen THIS year.....just within the lifetime of someone now 60ish....in other words, by 2030 or thereabouts.

And I'm talking about "barrier" breakers, not who might beat who....although obviously it would be easier to break a barrier mark with 2 (or more!) people/teams chasing the mark.

Neither of them did it, but Gunder Hagg and Arne Andersson brought the mile mark significantly closer to the 4:00.0 barrier in a series of battles in the '40's.
Thus, Bolt and Blake could both get closer to the 9.50/19.00 barriers ......if only they'd race against EACH OTHER more often!! :wink:
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Re: Formidable Barriers to Be Challenged

Postby 26mi235 » Sat May 11, 2013 5:11 am

And the Hagg/Andersson battles were truncated, they did not reach. Otherwise, they might have gotten to 3:42 (focusing on the 1500) and then tried more miles when down to 60-second laps.
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Re: Formidable Barriers to Be Challenged

Postby GHM » Sat May 11, 2013 6:05 am

There are a few odd individual women records/best that are soft and could go down if some mid major meet is willing to spend a few dollars and get TV interested in it.

From Softest to hardest record:

300m: record is 35.46 and at least three ladies can get close and break it.

600m: record is 1:22.63 and Alysia Montano did mid 1:23 already indoor.

2000m: record is 5:25.36 and Defar is the only only one who can challenge it.


I suggest Bolt and Kirani match up in 300m will result in 30.70 range record as well.
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Re: Formidable Barriers to Be Challenged

Postby nicest person ever » Sat May 11, 2013 8:37 am

aaronk wrote:Men
9.50 Yes. (Bolt had a 0.9m/s tailwind on his 9.58 run. Give him a 2.0m/s tailwind and it becomes a 9.53. That's just 3 hundredths away from the barrier. Thus, I think it is well within the reach of humans in the next 20 years. Hell, maybe even just the next year or two, who knows.)

19.00 Yes. (Bolt ran that 19.19 into a -0.3 HEADWIND. With a 2.0 tailwind that 19.19 becomes a 19.06. And his 19.30 wr in Beijing was into a -0.9 headwind btw, so that one is a 19.11 if it had been a 2.0 tailwind. So, both of his two best 200m runs were within just .11 and .06 of the 19 second barrier if he would've had perfect wind conditions. That puts it well within reach, given how severely he died at the end of both of those wr runs, if his speed endurance had been a bit better, he smashes 19 secs easy if he gets an ideal tailwind.

43.00 Yes. Bolt would be able to. It's just a shame that he refuses to do it. Even so, someone else will get there within 20 years probably anyway, just a shame Bolt refuses to do it, since he could've done it in Rio probly if he became an officially 200/400 guy starting right now till then. Oh well.

1:40.00 Yes. Rudisha himself might do it, but even if not, his existence makes it seem pretty likely that some human will be capable of pulling it off within the next couple decades probably.

3:40.00 Maaaaybe, but probably not. I think it'll happen eventually, but unless you live a very long lifetime (as in, die at age 100-something, instead of 80-something, if you are in you 60's) I am not so confident it'll happen in your lifetime. I think 3:40 is the toughest barrier of the ones listed up to this point.

12:30 and 26:00 5&10K Maaaaybe. I don't think it will be as easy as 9.50, 19.00, 43.00, or 1:40.00, but sooner than the 3:40.00 barrier probly. Or maybe not actually. I dunno, both this one and the mile one seem really ridiculously hard.

7:45 SC I dunno, since I don't follow the steeple.

8 foot HJ Definitely.

20-0 PV Definitely.

75-0 SP Yes. Even within just 1 decade, let alone 2 decades. People are getting taller, bigger, stronger, as a human race. I think this bodes well for an event like the shot put.
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Re: Formidable Barriers to Be Challenged

Postby nicest person ever » Sat May 11, 2013 9:29 am

Actually, the more I think about the 3:40 mile barrier, the more I think I was overly harsh about that one. Because, I just did some number crunching regarding what the 1500m 3:26 record would've converted to had it been a mile run, and given that the mile is 109.34 meters longer than the 1500m, and that the 3:43 mile was run at an avg velocity of 7.217 m/s, it should take about 15.15 seconds more to run the mile than the 1500m (when running at world class caliber types of times that is). Thus, if the 3:26 1500m wr is equivalent to actually more like a 3:41-low mile rather than a 3:43-low mile, this indicates that the mile record is actually a bit soft compared to the 1500m record by comparison. Which makes sense actually, since the 1500m is run so much more frequently than the mile, at the world class level, given that it is the race they use in major track and field events on the circuit and olympics etc etc, not the mile. So then it just becomes a statistics and probability type of thing as to why the mile record is 2 seconds softer than the 1500m record in equivalency, like, it makes sense.

So yea, I take my comments back about the mile record being the harshest of the ones listed in the original post. Given that I now think of it as humans having been basically just 1 second away from the 3:40 barrier (in 1500m equivalency), rather than a full 3 seconds away, that obv changes things, and means it isn't as severely strong as I initially thought it was.

Okay, just wanted to correct that. Carry on y'all.
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