NCAA Football Playoff Doomed


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NCAA Football Playoff Doomed

Postby Marlow » Fri May 03, 2013 5:52 am

I know we've touched on this before, but an article in today's paper outlined the reasons why the new (for next year) 4-team playoff won't last long.

In the current model two teams eventually make it to the #1 and #2 spots in a mostly computer-driven algorithm. Next year a 'selection committee' (see where this is going?) will choose four teams. Picking 4 teams will only make matters worse, because LOTS more teams will think they deserve to be in that group, than think they should be top 2 (one of which is usually obvious). By expanding to 4, they are lowering the standards bar, a bar MANY teams will think they've already cleared. The sporting public will go NUTS with rage that their team didn't make the new expanded 4.

Look for an 8-team format sooner than later, and then eventually 16 teams, which will make for an NFL-esque schedule playing into February. What a mess!
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Re: NCAA Football Playoff Doomed

Postby Conor Dary » Fri May 03, 2013 7:33 am

Maybe 8, but I don't ever see 16. A team like Alabama could lose 3 games and still be in the playoffs. It would do some serious damage to the regular season, where every game at the present really counts. I think the school presidents and ADs at the big conferences know they have a sweet deal now and don't want to screw it up. There will be a lot of bitching, but it is pretty unlikely there will be 5 undefeated teams.

And as you say the Bowl Games would be completely irrelevant.
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Re: NCAA Football Playoff Doomed

Postby Cooter Brown » Fri May 03, 2013 10:35 am

Conor Dary wrote:And as you say the Bowl Games would be completely irrelevant.


Just like they are now.
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Re: NCAA Football Playoff Doomed

Postby DrJay » Fri May 03, 2013 10:39 am

If the point is to pick the national champion, the best team in the country, four teams should do. Sure, the #5 or #6 team might say, "hey, WE'RE #4 and deserve to play" but could they really make a strong claim that they're #1? How many times in recent years have there been three teams that could make a strong case for being #1? At least a few. How many times have there been four such teams, or five? Probably not many, if any (I don't follow it closely enough to know the answer.)
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Re: NCAA Football Playoff Doomed

Postby jazzcyclist » Fri May 03, 2013 10:52 am

DrJay wrote:If the point is to pick the national champion, the best team in the country, four teams should do. Sure, the #5 or #6 team might say, "hey, WE'RE #4 and deserve to play" but could they really make a strong claim that they're #1? How many times in recent years have there been three teams that could make a strong case for being #1? At least a few. How many times have there been four such teams, or five? Probably not many, if any (I don't follow it closely enough to know the answer.)

Well stated DrJay. To answer your question, going back 40 years to when I first started following college football as a kid, there has never been a year in which the #5 team at the end of the regular season was considered the best team in the nation by any significant number of people, but there have been plenty of times when the #3 team was considered the best by a sizeable number of people. As a matter of fact, during the BCS era, there hasn't been a single instance in which the coach of a team finishing outside of the top four has voted his team #1 in the final regular season poll.
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Re: NCAA Football Playoff Doomed

Postby lonewolf » Fri May 03, 2013 12:25 pm

Four team playoff is enough.
The bowl season lasts nearly a month now. The playoff games could be rotated among the major bowls without extending the season.
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Re: NCAA Football Playoff Doomed

Postby 26mi235 » Fri May 03, 2013 12:43 pm

Even going to eight but especially sixteen does take the season out and then it pays again to put in patsys. To be Top-4 you have to play a very respectable schedule. Wisconsin is already adjusting its early games (adding a h/a with Alabama, I think).
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Re: NCAA Football Playoff Doomed

Postby Marlow » Fri May 03, 2013 12:56 pm

DrJay wrote:If the point is to pick the national champion, the best team in the country, four teams should do.

The nominal point of the playoff is to pick a champion, but we all know that's simply not what a 4-team bracket will be seen as. If a team with a great record does not make the bracket (which we know several will), their media scribes and fan base will raise Holy Hell. Fact. That will drive the natl media into a feeding frenzy (drama sells!) and the 4-team playoff will be deemed a disaster.
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Re: NCAA Football Playoff Doomed

Postby Pego » Fri May 03, 2013 1:09 pm

Marlow wrote:That will drive the natl media into a feeding frenzy


This will happen regardless of the format.
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Re: NCAA Football Playoff Doomed

Postby Daisy » Fri May 03, 2013 1:28 pm

Pego wrote:
Marlow wrote:That will drive the natl media into a feeding frenzy

This will happen regardless of the format.

And I assume this is something that would actually bring in the otherwise not-so-interested sports fan. So it can't be a bad thing.

At the end of the day there will be an undisputed champion. The only dispute will be who are the 'real' also-rans, and the answer to that is 'who cares?'.
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Re: NCAA Football Playoff Doomed

Postby Marlow » Fri May 03, 2013 1:40 pm

Daisy wrote:
Pego wrote:
Marlow wrote:That will drive the natl media into a feeding frenzy

This will happen regardless of the format.

And I assume this is something that would actually bring in the otherwise not-so-interested sports fan. So it can't be a bad thing.
At the end of the day there will be an undisputed champion. The only dispute will be who are the 'real' also-rans, and the answer to that is 'who cares?'.

You guys keep thinking like rational human beings, which you KNOW is not the case with the media or the whirling dervish, foaming at the mouth, bull moose loonies who inhabit the blogosphere of D1 football.
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Re: NCAA Football Playoff Doomed

Postby mcgato » Fri May 03, 2013 2:11 pm

I've said before that I think that within 3 years the playoff will expand to 6 or 8 teams. And in 15 years or less it will be 16 teams. People here are arguing about what is best for the game or some other vague ideal. The NCAA only cares about $$$$$.

Take the NCAA basketball playoff. In the early days, it was pretty much equivalent in status to the NIT. At some point (I think), the NCAA made the conference winners go to the NCAA tournament. But only conference winners played in the tournament. Then they expanded to let in some wild cards. I'm sure that many in the press wailed that that would be the worst thing to ever happen to the tournament. Then it became 48 teams. More wailing, I'm sure. Then 64 teams, and more wailing. Now at 64+ teams (I refuse to acknowledge the play in games), the NCAA is making a butt ton of $$$$$ and is quite happy. Every move along the way was most likely done for money reasons.
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Re: NCAA Football Playoff Doomed

Postby bambam » Sat May 04, 2013 4:22 am

26mi235 wrote:Even going to eight but especially sixteen does take the season out and then it pays again to put in patsys. To be Top-4 you have to play a very respectable schedule. Wisconsin is already adjusting its early games (adding a h/a with Alabama, I think).


By analogy to college basketball, many people feel March Madness has devalued that regular season and that is no longer so important.

I gave you my prediction about personal computers embedded in forearms/wrists. Here is my prediction for 50 years from now in major American sports - football and basketball at least.

There will no longer be regular seasons, there will be only playoffs. And in both sports the seasons will actually be longer than 12 months long. The "season" will start with qualifying rounds of playoffs, among teams that were relegated the previous season. The teams still in the previous year's play-offs will be exempted thru the first rounds of play-offs. There will be countless rounds of play-offs, with every team getting into the play-offs - allows teams and media a better chance to hype the fact that these are the PLAY-OFFS!

Prior to year-round playoffs, I also think that the NFL (if it survives) will eventually go to a handicap system, where teams are given handicaps based on their performances. This goes along with their desire for full parity. The ultimate goal will be that every team reaches the last week of the NFL season with a record of either 10-9 or 9-10 (it will be a 20-game season eventually). The media will hype teams that are true dynasties - teams that finish the season with records like 13-7 or 14-6.
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Re: NCAA Football Playoff Doomed

Postby Cooter Brown » Sat May 04, 2013 5:56 pm

26mi235 wrote:To be Top-4 you have to play a very respectable schedule.


If you start high enough in the first poll, you can have a pretty miserable schedule and still make the top 4.
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Re: NCAA Football Playoff Doomed

Postby Conor Dary » Sun May 05, 2013 7:20 am

Cooter Brown wrote:
26mi235 wrote:To be Top-4 you have to play a very respectable schedule.


If you start high enough in the first poll, you can have a pretty miserable schedule and still make the top 4.


That is not really true. 3 losses and you are definitely out of the top 4 and 2 losses can almost certainly doom you. The problem is with 8 or, egads, 16 teams.
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