the London 4x1 revisited [split]


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the London 4x1 revisited [split]

Postby ATK » Thu Apr 11, 2013 5:56 pm

jamboy wrote:
rainy.here wrote:
jamboy wrote:
26mi235 wrote:So there are a lot of 19.5 guys in the 200?



That was just a one of race for him. It will never happen again.


Huh? He was Bronze 100 & 200 in '08 Olympics, and Silver 100 & 200 in '11 worlds. Dude knows how to run...


And Lauryn Williams has WC gold and OG silver at the 100m. I don't expect to ever see her back on the medal stand.

The competition(especially) from Jamaica has since passed these athletes.

That's a terrible comparison....Lauryn Williams was competing with the top athletes in the world before Dix even stepped foot at Florida State. She has way more miles...

Dix has made a steady and consistent improvement over the years and the only things that has slowed him is injury. When he is healthy....consider him a threat for any medal in a 200m race.
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Re: Spearmon moving up to 400

Postby Speedster » Fri Apr 12, 2013 12:07 am

I can't believe people are writing off Dix! Prior to his injury last year he looked a much improved athlete with technician John Smith tidying up his form which what I think will allow him to get the most out of his speed and power.

Staying healthy is everything and if he can then I think he'll be in Moscow and fighting it out for medals.
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Re: Spearmon moving up to 400

Postby trackinblack2 » Tue Apr 23, 2013 8:28 am

Speaking of Dix, if he had been healthy the US 4x100 team might have beaten Bolt et al
in London. A slow leadoff leg doomed the US and Bolt had no challenge on anchor. If I
remember correctly the US leadoff ran 10.2. Dix surely would have run faster than that
if he were healthy. We were beaten by 0.2 seconds. Anyone else have the same feeling about this?
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Re: Spearmon moving up to 400

Postby gh » Tue Apr 23, 2013 8:57 am

Jamaica ran 10.1, 8.9, 9.0, 8.8
U.S. ran 10.2, 8.9, 9.0, 8.9

So if Dix runs 10.1, Bolt gets stick even with Bailey. Guess what happens?

If Dix runs 10.0, Bolt gets stick 0.1 behind Bailey. Guess what happens?

If Dix runs 9.9, Bolt gets stick, 0.2 behind Bailey. Guess what happens?

If Dix runs 9.8...... (I guess there's an end to the progression somewhere there, but Dix wasn't about to run that fast)
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Re: Spearmon moving up to 400

Postby 18.99s » Tue Apr 23, 2013 9:07 am

trackinblack2 wrote:Speaking of Dix, if he had been healthy the US 4x100 team might have beaten Bolt et al
in London.

If you're going down the "if he had been healthy" route, you also have to consider what would happen if Asafa Powell were healthy.

Carter to Blake to Bolt to a healthy Asafa is 36.7. Dix in the mix wouldn't beat that.
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Re: Spearmon moving up to 400

Postby lionelp1 » Tue Apr 23, 2013 10:08 am

18.99s wrote:
trackinblack2 wrote:Speaking of Dix, if he had been healthy the US 4x100 team might have beaten Bolt et al
in London.

If you're going down the "if he had been healthy" route, you also have to consider what would happen if Asafa Powell were healthy.

Carter to Blake to Bolt to a healthy Asafa is 36.7. Dix in the mix wouldn't beat that.


precisely.
Some people in the depths of their minds just cannot get it at the moment. Jamaica has the superior sprinters at the very top, right now..
The "if only" brigade are guilty of a statement rather useless, cos you have to be there.
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Re: Spearmon moving up to 400

Postby 26mi235 » Tue Apr 23, 2013 11:39 am

AP would have been a faster leg and Bolt could probably squeeze out another 0.05 except sometimes when pressed passes are slower. Still a 36.6 to 36.7 races would have been a fabulous one to see; both crushing the WR etc.
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Re: the London 4x1 revisited [split]

Postby JumboElliott » Tue Apr 23, 2013 4:29 pm

Or maybe it wouldn't have been faster at all..
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Re: the London 4x1 revisited [split]

Postby jamboy » Tue Apr 23, 2013 4:34 pm

JumboElliott wrote:Or maybe it wouldn't have been faster at all..


A fit Asafa is faster than Carter and Frater.
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Re: the London 4x1 revisited [split]

Postby jamboy » Tue Apr 23, 2013 4:34 pm

Asafa, Frater/Carter, Blake and Bolt being all fit can run a 36.50 in Moscow this summer at the WC.
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Re: the London 4x1 revisited [split]

Postby 26mi235 » Tue Apr 23, 2013 4:46 pm

Not necessarily given the way they have been handling the stick at times.
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Re: the London 4x1 revisited [split]

Postby jamboy » Tue Apr 23, 2013 4:59 pm

26mi235 wrote:Not necessarily given the way they have been handling the stick at times.


No dropped batons so far.
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Re: the London 4x1 revisited [split]

Postby 26mi235 » Tue Apr 23, 2013 6:57 pm

No, the Jamaicans have had somewhat fewer of the complete disasters. But they have had some less-than-auspicious passes (remember when Bolt had to pause in his acceleration to switch hands with the baton?).

Bottom line is that if both pass the same, even if the Americans run a bit better at the individual level, Jamaica will win. However, a few flaws in the handoffs would open the door, especially if a first flaw puts people behind who expected to be ahead and they push too much (AP has not had this problem in the relays that he has had in the open 100, but an unexpected problem might make it happen here.

I think that AP make Jamaica better on average, but they are already better on average; they have to avoid the problems. He may actually increase the likelihood that they lose due to some injury mishap.
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Re: Spearmon moving up to 400

Postby jazzcyclist » Tue Apr 23, 2013 7:31 pm

gh wrote:If Dix runs 10.0, Bolt gets stick 0.1 behind Bailey. Guess what happens?

Dead heat.
gh wrote:If Dix runs 9.9, Bolt gets stick, 0.2 behind Bailey. Guess what happens? If Dix runs 9.8

USA! USA! USA!

Also, remember that the U.S. lost at least 0.1s on the second exchange when Gay got out late.
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Re: the London 4x1 revisited [split]

Postby Tuariki » Tue Apr 23, 2013 10:33 pm

It would be great to see Bolt get the stick 4 meters behind because then we might finally be able to see what he is truly capable of. If he is fit and healthy I'd have my money on Bolt, even from 4 meters behind.
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Re: the London 4x1 revisited [split]

Postby gh » Wed Apr 24, 2013 4:51 am

I don't know about 4 meters, but that was the point of my increasing-margin post, all with the same result.
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Re: the London 4x1 revisited [split]

Postby Marlow » Wed Apr 24, 2013 4:58 am

Tuariki wrote:It would be great to see Bolt get the stick 4 meters behind because then we might finally be able to see what he is truly capable of. If he is fit and healthy I'd have my money on Bolt, even from 4 meters behind.

So you DON'T think we saw that in his 9.58/19.19? If you watched his expression throughout the races, I think you'll see he was 100% invested.
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Re: the London 4x1 revisited [split]

Postby jazzcyclist » Wed Apr 24, 2013 5:07 am

Tuariki wrote:It would be great to see Bolt get the stick 4 meters behind because then we might finally be able to see what he is truly capable of. If he is fit and healthy I'd have my money on Bolt, even from 4 meters behind.

Bolt's not four meters (~0.35s) faster than Bailey.
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Re: Spearmon moving up to 400

Postby batonless relay » Wed Apr 24, 2013 5:16 am

jazzcyclist wrote:
Tuariki wrote:It would be great to see Bolt get the stick 4 meters behind because then we might finally be able to see what he is truly capable of. If he is fit and healthy I'd have my money on Bolt, even from 4 meters behind.

Bolt's not four meters (~0.35s) faster than Bailey.

Maybe not "on paper", but it wouldn't surprise me if he were with a running start; especially since their PB's are .3 apart
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Re: Spearmon moving up to 400

Postby jazzcyclist » Wed Apr 24, 2013 6:23 am

batonless relay wrote:
jazzcyclist wrote:Bolt's not four meters (~0.35s) faster than Bailey.

Maybe not "on paper", but it wouldn't surprise me if he were with a running start; especially since their PB's are .3 apart

But since Bolt is a better starter than Bailey, a running start would bring Bailey closer to Bolt. We also know that in the Olympic final, where they raced under identical conditions and were probably in their best shape of the year, Bolt was only 0.24s faster than Bailey.
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Re: Spearmon moving up to 400

Postby batonless relay » Wed Apr 24, 2013 7:33 am

jazzcyclist wrote:
batonless relay wrote:
jazzcyclist wrote:Bolt's not four meters (~0.35s) faster than Bailey.

Maybe not "on paper", but it wouldn't surprise me if he were with a running start; especially since their PB's are .3 apart

But since Bolt is a better starter than Bailey, a running start would bring Bailey closer to Bolt. We also know that in the Olympic final, where they raced under identical conditions and were probably in their best shape of the year, Bolt was only 0.24s faster than Bailey.

That's an extremely flawed assumption (accept for the note to the Oly Final difference). Bolt may be hindered MORE from the blocks than is Bailey - especially when you consider that Bolt is taller with seemingly longer legs. The fact that he starts better, doesn't mean that he also doesn't run faster with a run in; a running start may be FAR easier on Bolt than a block start, hence even smoother/faster acceleration. Though it's not a fair comparison...if Bailey would have run the 200m in London and the athletes would have been timed from 50m to 150m (50m run-in) I am guessing that Bolt would have been at least .3 ahead (assuming Bailey is .2 slower from 150 - 200m it means Bailey would have run 19.82 for a healthy PB).
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Re: the London 4x1 revisited [split]

Postby gh » Wed Apr 24, 2013 7:36 am

all the voodoo number-crunching aside, bottom line for me is that if you've seen Bolt run and seen others run, there should be little doubt in your mind that he could easily have made up 2m on Bailey, may have been able to make up 3, but I can't see 4 at all.
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Re: the London 4x1 revisited [split]

Postby sprintdoc » Wed Apr 24, 2013 8:55 am

But WITH Dix on lead off AND with a better exchange between Gatlin and Gay then the US very well may have had a 3-4 meter lead and it would have been the race we all want to see - Bolt having to chase a legitimate sprinter down. Keep in mind too that Bailey runs much cleaner technically when in front than with others around him to cause him to break form. Many do this as they overstride or make other technical mistakes as they chase.

As we approach the next 4x1 major in Moscow keep in mind who is going to be improving and who is going to be slowing. The world isn't static, people and conditions change. I expect Bailey should improve although Mt SAC was not promising but it is early. Still haven't seen Dix. Tyson looked nice in his 400 and relay leg in Gainesville last week. Will know a little more after this weekend of course. Jamaica has a hurting Asafa, a seriously hurt Blake that while he likely is fine by August he is going to miss valuable training time. Bolt always has issues.
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Re: Spearmon moving up to 400

Postby jazzcyclist » Wed Apr 24, 2013 9:02 am

batonless relay wrote:That's an extremely flawed assumption (accept for the note to the Oly Final difference). Bolt may be hindered MORE from the blocks than is Bailey

But we already know for a fact that Bailey is hindered more by the blocks than Bolt based on the 10-meter splits from London.

batonless relay wrote:especially when you consider that Bolt is taller with seemingly longer legs.

Aren't we talking baout Ryan Bailey? How tall do you think he is? :?
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Re: Spearmon moving up to 400

Postby batonless relay » Wed Apr 24, 2013 9:21 am

jazzcyclist wrote:
batonless relay wrote:That's an extremely flawed assumption (accept for the note to the Oly Final difference). Bolt may be hindered MORE from the blocks than is Bailey

But we already know for a fact that Bailey is hindered more by the blocks than Bolt based on the 10-meter splits from London.

jazz, we don't know for a fact that Bailey is hindered MORE by the blocks than is Bolt. That is an assumption. And 10m splits from London would not be able to prove that - unless you have them for the relay as well. The fact that Bolt accelerates better than Bailey from the blocks doesn't mean that the % improvement (time wise) from a running start doesn't ALSO translate to Bolt. You're stating a logical falsehood by using 10m split 100m block times with relay splits.
jazzcyclist wrote:
batonless relay wrote:especially when you consider that Bolt is taller with seemingly longer legs.

Aren't we talking baout Ryan Bailey? How tall do you think he is? :?

I've read Bailey is 6'4", and because I have stood right next to him, I would say that he is (6'3" at the least). But, I also said that Bolt is taller with seemingly longer legs - a statement I believe to be true. Yes, we see Bolt accelerate well, but that's ONLY when he has everything working right; when he doesn't he labors to catch up to the good starters - many times trailing the field until 40-60m or even 90m. Contrast that with Berlin or even London (though to a lesser degree) where he was ON and blew everyone away almost immediately.

My only point is that though you MAY be correct, you can't prove it and its FAR from "known"; Bolt COULD very well be inhibited MORE by block starts than Bailey is.
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Re: the London 4x1 revisited [split]

Postby Tuariki » Wed Apr 24, 2013 12:46 pm

gh wrote:all the voodoo number-crunching aside, bottom line for me is that if you've seen Bolt run and seen others run, there should be little doubt in your mind that he could easily have made up 2m on Bailey, may have been able to make up 3, but I can't see 4 at all.

Sadly, we will likely never know as this will remain a theoretical debate as the US doesn't have 3 sprinters who can give the US any sort of a lead over Jamaica, let alone a 4 meter lead.
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Re: Spearmon moving up to 400

Postby jazzcyclist » Wed Apr 24, 2013 1:03 pm

batonless relay wrote:I've read Bailey is 6'4", and because I have stood right next to him, I would say that he is (6'3" at the least). But, I also said that Bolt is taller with seemingly longer legs - a statement I believe to be true. Yes, we see Bolt accelerate well, but that's ONLY when he has everything working right; when he doesn't he labors to catch up to the good starters - many times trailing the field until 40-60m or even 90m. Contrast that with Berlin or even London (though to a lesser degree) where he was ON and blew everyone away almost immediately.

My only point is that though you MAY be correct, you can't prove it and its FAR from "known"; Bolt COULD very well be inhibited MORE by block starts than Bailey is.

When I stood next to him, he seemed every bit 6'4" Anyway, one way to measure how fast they are with a running start is to look at the last 70-80 meters of the London race. How much of Bolt's 0.24s margin of victory came in the first 20-30 meters and how much of it came in the last 70-80 meters? Also keep in mind that we have a lot more data points for Bolt than we do for the younger Bailey and chances are that Bailey will improve his 100 PR, while there's a very good chance that Bolt will never improve on his Berlin performance in which we both agree that he got the start of his life.

Conclusion:
    On average, Bolt is 0.2s-.03s faster than Bailey.
    If Bolt is off and Bailey is on, Bolt is 0.0s-0.1s faster than Bailey.
    If Bolt is on and Bailey is off, Bolt is 0.4s-0.5s faster than Bailey.
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Re: the London 4x1 revisited [split]

Postby batonless relay » Wed Apr 24, 2013 1:26 pm

That sounds about right. And, yes, it would be nice to see Bailey make the jump below the 9.84 barrier; it seems to be a firmament to 9.7x, because every person who has run below 9.84 has run 9.7x or better (Steve Mullings, excepted).
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Re: the London 4x1 revisited [split]

Postby toyracer » Thu Apr 25, 2013 10:28 am

26mi235 wrote: However, a few flaws in the handoffs would open the door, especially if a first flaw puts people behind who expected to be ahead and they push too much (AP has not had this problem in the relays that he has had in the open 100, but an unexpected problem might make it happen here.


I have to disagree. Asafa does not fall apart on relays, even when he is behind.

'02 Commonwealth Games
'07 Worlds.

Got the baton behind on both occasions and still gave maximum effort.
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Re: the London 4x1 revisited [split]

Postby jazzcyclist » Thu Apr 25, 2013 12:02 pm

toyracer wrote:
26mi235 wrote: However, a few flaws in the handoffs would open the door, especially if a first flaw puts people behind who expected to be ahead and they push too much (AP has not had this problem in the relays that he has had in the open 100, but an unexpected problem might make it happen here.


I have to disagree. Asafa does not fall apart on relays, even when he is behind.

'02 Commonwealth Games
'07 Worlds.

Got the baton behind on both occasions and still gave maximum effort.

I agree with this. Powell seems to give a greater effort when he's running for his country than when he's running for himself. I would also add that in both 2008 and 2009, he ran all the way through the finish despite having a big lead. In open 100 races, it's common for him to start shutting down before the finish when he knows he's going to win.
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Re: the London 4x1 revisited [split]

Postby ZELLGADISS » Fri Apr 26, 2013 12:06 am

The theme is that Bolt is minimum 0.2 seconds faster that Bailey.
He was 0.25 faster in final OG, and Bolt was "only" 90-95% resting 1 month since injury in trials Jamaica.
Bolt 100% is easy 0.3 seconds faster that Bailey.
And if Bailey is not 100% the advantage is a lot of bigger.....
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Re: the London 4x1 revisited [split]

Postby jazzcyclist » Fri Apr 26, 2013 3:49 am

ZELLGADISS wrote:The theme is that Bolt is minimum 0.2 seconds faster that Bailey.
He was 0.25 faster in final OG, and Bolt was "only" 90-95% resting 1 month since injury in trials Jamaica.
Bolt 100% is easy 0.3 seconds faster that Bailey.
And if Bailey is not 100% the advantage is a lot of bigger.....

This assumes that we saw the best of Bailey in the London final, and we didn't see the best of Bolt in that final which I doubt is the case based on their ages. My hunch is that Bolt's 9.5 days are behind him and that Bailey has 9.7 days in front of him.
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Re: the London 4x1 revisited [split]

Postby gh » Fri Apr 26, 2013 4:59 am

lifetime bests and potential have nothing to do with the discussion here (at least not from what I was stating). On that day in London (not another day, past, present or future) I believe that Bolt could/would have run down Bailey from at least 2m back, maybe 3. But I can't imagine 4.

That's my story and I'm sticking to it.
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Re: the London 4x1 revisited [split]

Postby ZELLGADISS » Fri Apr 26, 2013 5:06 am

gh i think same, THAT day Bolt wins in the final 4x100 OG to Bailey, 2m back, 3m back probably and 4m back IMPOSSIBLE :wink:
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Re: the London 4x1 revisited [split]

Postby jazzcyclist » Fri Apr 26, 2013 5:22 am

gh wrote:lifetime bests and potential have nothing to do with the discussion here (at least not from what I was stating). On that day in London (not another day, past, present or future) I believe that Bolt could/would have run down Bailey from at least 2m back, maybe 3. But I can't imagine 4.

That's my story and I'm sticking to it.

I certainly don't disagree with you, and I pretty much said as much in one of my earlier posts. Simple math tells us that 0.25s = 2-3 meters.
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Re: the London 4x1 revisited [split]

Postby jazzcyclist » Fri Apr 26, 2013 5:29 am

ZELLGADISS wrote:gh i think same, THAT day Bolt wins in the final 4x100 OG to Bailey, 2m back, 3m back probably and 4m back IMPOSSIBLE :wink:

If only Gay had gotten out on time . . . . . :(
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Re: the London 4x1 revisited [split]

Postby jamboy » Fri Apr 26, 2013 8:03 am

The only way Jamaica loses the 4 x 100m in Moscow this summer is if Blake is injured/or off form due to injury and if Asafa is the same.
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Re: the London 4x1 revisited [split]

Postby gh » Fri Apr 26, 2013 8:09 am

that's right, since a botched handoff/baton drop simply doesn't happen to Jamaica. It's the law.
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Re: the London 4x1 revisited [split]

Postby jazzcyclist » Fri Apr 26, 2013 8:16 am

jamboy wrote:The only way Jamaica loses the 4 x 100m in Moscow this summer is if Blake is injured/or off form due to injury and if Asafa is the same.

Are you guaranteeing another WR because that's what it took to beat the U.S. in London?
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Re: the London 4x1 revisited [split]

Postby Tuariki » Fri Apr 26, 2013 8:56 am

jazzcyclist wrote:
jamboy wrote:The only way Jamaica loses the 4 x 100m in Moscow this summer is if Blake is injured/or off form due to injury and if Asafa is the same.

Are you guaranteeing another WR because that's what it took to beat the U.S. in London?

Given that the US was 0.20 behind Jamaica I don't think anyone has to guarantee anything about the need for Jamaica to set a new WR in order for Jamaica to beat the US.
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