the Boston Marathon race thread


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the Boston Marathon race thread

Postby aaronk » Sun Apr 14, 2013 12:21 am

The Boston Marathon is upon us again!!
It started in the 19th century.
It's now the 21st century.

I doubt Shalane Flanagan (or Kara Goucher) will take two CENTURIES to run 26.2 miles come Monday!! :shock:

But what WILL they run?
Sub-2:20 for Shalane, and sub-2:22 for Kara?
Slower? (With Monday's weather possibly being the deciding factor!!)

Watching their race in the Stanford 10K, they appear quite strong, and ready for ANY pace!!
They're training partners, great friends, and they ran VERY close together in the London OG.

But if Goucher isn't quite up to it, Flanagan CAN go it alone.....at least alone among the Americans! (She should have some Africans to keep her company most of the way!)

The worst, of course, would be a DNF.
The best?
A victory.....in an AR time somewhere under 2:19:00!!

GO IRISH!! :D

ADD: OOPS!! Forgot there's already a thread on this. ("Flanagan and Goucher at Boston. Prediction?") Combine them if you wish. But please keep this title. I LOVE that song!! :)
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Re: Boston: Will Shalane's Irish eyes be smiling after?

Postby EPelle » Sun Apr 14, 2013 12:34 am

These persistent fantasies are made for the funny pages. The comic books. Flanagan going at it alone enables the seven women (excluding Goucher) who've run faster lifetime bests great opportunity to draft. Gain aid. Finish ahead of and eventually run faster than Flanagan.
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Re: Boston: Will Shalane's Irish eyes be smiling after?

Postby aaronk » Sun Apr 14, 2013 1:25 am

EPelle wrote:These persistent fantasies are made for the funny pages. The comic books. Flanagan going at it alone enables the seven women (excluding Goucher) who've run faster lifetime bests great opportunity to draft. Gain aid. Finish ahead of and eventually run faster than Flanagan.


Yes, some Boston entrants have run faster than Flanagan.
But there's more than one prediction now that Flanagan can, and just might, hold her own with these women.
She may have run "only" 2:25+ so far, but she has a sub-2:20 in her!
Whether it is given birth on Monday.....or dies stillborn....is up to the Gods to decide (plus a bit of blood, sweat, and tears!).

I didn't say she'd go it alone....only alone (possibly!!) among the Americans!
Though Goucher could surprise....and go sub-2:20 also......but I'd put her more in the 2:22 (at best!) category.

Will even a 2:19 be enough to win? The CR is just 2:20:43!!
But Boston.....and marathons in general....are fickle souls!!

P.S. As for comic books and funny pages, I once had an idea for a daily comic. I would write the dialogue, and get someone to do the graphics.
It was to be about 3 people sharing an apartment in a city.....one's a paraplegic, one's blind, and one has cerebral palsy. The C.P. person was to be a girl...the other 2 guys! It was going to be mostly a comedy....but with some dramatic themes entered into it.
Alas, it was one of MANY ideas I had that I never developed!!
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Re: Boston: Will Shalane's Irish eyes be smiling after?

Postby norunner » Sun Apr 14, 2013 1:41 am

aaronk wrote:
EPelle wrote:She may have run "only" 2:25+ so far, but she has a sub-2:20 in her!
And Mary Cain has a sub 3:55 in her and...who are you other fantasy girls? Oh and i forgot: !!!!!
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Re: Boston: Will Shalane's Irish eyes be smiling after?

Postby Master Po » Sun Apr 14, 2013 4:02 am

Monday weather forecast for Hopkinton & Boston -- most factors look good:

predicted high temps upper 50s, so probably in the 40s-50ish for most of the time the elites are running.

low humidity & zero/very low chance of precipitation.

However, both forecasts predict E winds: 5-10mph in Hopkinton, 10-15 in Boston.

So, as of today's forecast no W wind to facilitate super-fast running, but otherwise could be a good day for racing, depending on how calm the wind conditions turn out to be while they are actually on the course.
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Re: Boston: Will Shalane's Irish eyes be smiling after?

Postby doug5321 » Sun Apr 14, 2013 4:51 am

flanagan absolutely has a chance she has a bronze at world xc, bronze at 10000 in the olympics, she has by far the fastest 10000 in the field 30:22 #17 all time, she just ran a solo 10000 in 31:04 a couple of weeks ago, before her taper. flanagan is the best woman runner in the race, though others have so far run better marathons, flanagan has yet to get the marathon right, but if she does a victory is very possible 2:22-2:23 could be the winning time.

i will say it i pick flanagan to win.
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Re: Boston: Will Shalane's Irish eyes be smiling after?

Postby aaronk » Sun Apr 14, 2013 6:48 am

norunner wrote:
aaronk wrote:
EPelle wrote:She may have run "only" 2:25+ so far, but she has a sub-2:20 in her!
And Mary Cain has a sub 3:55 in her and...who are you other fantasy girls? Oh and i forgot: !!!!!


You win the PRIZE!!
You're correct!!

Mary Cain DOES have a sub-3:55 in her.....maybe by the 2020 Olympics!! :P

As for Shalane, I'm not the only one who feels she has a sub-2:20 marathon in her!!

BTW.......in case you were wondering, back in 1964, I promoted the OG chances of Gerry Lindgren....a BOY.....as much, or MORE, than I have that of Mary Cain!!

Ditto for Prefontaine, Alan Webb (before he crashed and burned!!), and a deceased former HS distance phenom named Eric Hulst!!

That Mary Cain is a GIRL is secondary to the fact that she is the GIRL with the most potential I have EVER seen in a.....GIRL!!

And to tell the truth, I'm more a fan of Kara Goucher than I am of Flanagan!! I just think Flanagan has more of a chance to get a sub-2:20 some day.
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Re: Boston: Will Shalane's Irish eyes be smiling after?

Postby lovetorun » Sun Apr 14, 2013 2:04 pm

Yes, Mary Cain is the most talented women distance runner since that other ultra talented Mary...Decker-Slaney.

And Aaronk...you did steal my post..but I'lll gladly join this one: I do believe that Flanagan is a serious threat to win, but it would defintely be an upset as things stand. And no one would like to see that upset more than me.

The race is much more interesting to me with Kara and Shalane and Joan Samuelson (Shooting to run just 30 minutes slower than she did in her great race in 1983, 30 years ago).
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Re: Boston: Will Shalane's Irish eyes be smiling after?

Postby doug5321 » Sun Apr 14, 2013 2:50 pm

way too early to say cain will be the best ever, will she even surpass flanagan? time will tell, probably the best women would be meseret defar and tirunesh dibaba.

1 thing cain is probably 7-10 years from her prime barring injuries, exciting prospect, though many are further along than her in accomplishment.
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Re: Boston: Will Shalane's Irish eyes be smiling after?

Postby EPelle » Mon Apr 15, 2013 5:29 am

Boston Course Record en-route splits:

MEN................WOMEN
0.14.32............0.17.03
0.29.08............0.33.43
0.43.48............0.50.24
0.58.45............1.07.06

1.01.58............1.10.43

1.13.16............1.23.32
1.28.24............1.40.16
1.42.35............1.57.10
1.56.48............2.13.39
2.03.02............2.20.43
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Re: Boston: Will Shalane's Irish eyes be smiling after?

Postby aaronk » Mon Apr 15, 2013 5:36 am

USATF Women's One Mile--2013--Redux!! :roll:
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Re: Boston: Will Shalane's Irish eyes be smiling after?

Postby aaronk » Mon Apr 15, 2013 5:44 am

Looks like Goucher pulling in behind the leaders.
They can't let those lead women get away.
In a slow race...it's anybody's for the taking!!

ADD: It's NOT Goucher up front.
It's someone named Cabellero!
It LOOKED like Goucher....from afar!
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Re: Boston: Will Shalane's Irish eyes be smiling after?

Postby DrJay » Mon Apr 15, 2013 6:06 am

49F in Boston right now, high only supposed to be 54F. Hard to beat that.
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Re: Boston: Will Shalane's Irish eyes be smiling after?

Postby EPelle » Mon Apr 15, 2013 6:09 am

aaronk wrote:Looks like Goucher pulling in behind the leaders.
They can't let those lead women get away.
In a slow race...it's anybody's for the taking!!

ADD: It's NOT Goucher up front.
It's someone named Cabellero!
It LOOKED like Goucher....from afar!

To avoid further misinformation, perhaps consult the Tweets on http://live.boston.com/Event/2013_Bosto ... _live_blog
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Re: Boston: Will Shalane's Irish eyes be smiling after?

Postby DrJay » Mon Apr 15, 2013 6:13 am

My gosh, Larry Rwason is at it again. "The men are averaging 5:00 a mile, so they're on 3:06 pace." ??????
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Re: Boston: Will Shalane's Irish eyes be smiling after?

Postby DrJay » Mon Apr 15, 2013 6:18 am

So are Shalane and Kara in the main pack? I think I can see Shalane back there.
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Re: Boston: Will Shalane's Irish eyes be smiling after?

Postby aaronk » Mon Apr 15, 2013 6:25 am

Wouldn't it be something if Hartmann and Flanagan pulled upsets.....and won!!

OR.....if one of those leading women shocked everyone!!
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Re: Boston: Will Shalane's Irish eyes be smiling after?

Postby DrJay » Mon Apr 15, 2013 6:32 am

OK, hard to miss Shalane and Kara with those shoes and sox.
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Re: Boston: Will Shalane's Irish eyes be smiling after?

Postby DrJay » Mon Apr 15, 2013 6:32 am

Kara tosses the arm-warmers
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Re: Boston: Will Shalane's Irish eyes be smiling after?

Postby aaronk » Mon Apr 15, 2013 6:34 am

The women's race begins......FINALLY!!!
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Re: Boston: Will Shalane's Irish eyes be smiling after?

Postby aaronk » Mon Apr 15, 2013 6:42 am

Caballero has EVERY reason to WIN!!

Husband died at age 40 of a stroke.
Because of that, she crashed in the OG!!
This......according to the announcers....is her run for redemption!!!

As they say, the marathon is 10% perspiration...and 90% inspiration!!!!

And the gap is widening!!
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Re: Boston: Will Shalane's Irish eyes be smiling after?

Postby DrJay » Mon Apr 15, 2013 6:48 am

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Re: Boston: Will Shalane's Irish eyes be smiling after?

Postby DrJay » Mon Apr 15, 2013 6:50 am

Not a very efficient runner, tons of arm movement. Pretty stocky. She'll bonk.
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Re: Boston: Will Shalane's Irish eyes be smiling after?

Postby eldanielfire » Mon Apr 15, 2013 6:54 am

Is there a stream for non-US viewers?
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Re: Boston: Will Shalane's Irish eyes be smiling after?

Postby kuha » Mon Apr 15, 2013 7:01 am

Oh, Larry Rawson, I love you man! He's very consistently translating mile pace into kilo pace for American viewers (and that helps how???!??) and just mentioned a slightly increased pace that has been "engendered" into the race.
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Re: Boston: Will Shalane's Irish eyes be smiling after?

Postby aaronk » Mon Apr 15, 2013 7:04 am

Cabellero fading...from 5:25 mile to 5:38 to 5:41.
Felix coming on strong.

But WHY, for friggin's sake...aren't the Africans and the two top Americans going with Felix??

Are ALL of them hurting??
This is getting downright SERIOUS!!!
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Re: Boston: Will Shalane's Irish eyes be smiling after?

Postby aaronk » Mon Apr 15, 2013 7:06 am

Ana Dulce Felix LEADING!!

The break has been made!!

And the Africans and Shalane and Kara just jog along...listening to their iPods!!! :shock:
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Re: Boston: Will Shalane's Irish eyes be smiling after?

Postby aaronk » Mon Apr 15, 2013 7:11 am

Who is that guy Watson up with the men's leaders?
Hartmann dropped back....and I thought he was gone.
Now he's up with the lead group again!!

VERY interesting!!

ADD: Robin Watson.....of CANADA????? :shock: :shock:
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Re: Boston: Will Shalane's Irish eyes be smiling after?

Postby DrJay » Mon Apr 15, 2013 7:18 am

Maybe all the Africans got together and said, "man, I'm tired of all these hard marathons. Are you tired of all these hard marathons? Let's just take it easy for the first 20 miles today. Deal?"
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Re: Boston: Will Shalane's Irish eyes be smiling after?

Postby doug5321 » Mon Apr 15, 2013 7:21 am

the mens boston marathon has been won by a canadian 15 times including 4 times by gerard cote.

historically speaking the mens boston marathon is 5 times more likely to be won by a canadian than ethiopian as ethiopian men have only won 3 times.
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Re: Boston: Will Shalane's Irish eyes be smiling after?

Postby DrJay » Mon Apr 15, 2013 7:24 am

Did Rawson just say "three hour and six minute kilometer pace"??
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Re: Boston: Will Shalane's Irish eyes be smiling after?

Postby kuha » Mon Apr 15, 2013 7:28 am

DrJay wrote:Did Rawson just say "three hour and six minute kilometer pace"??


He's confusing not only his listeners but himself with this kilo split foolishness.
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Re: Boston: Will Shalane's Irish eyes be smiling after?

Postby John G » Mon Apr 15, 2013 7:37 am

Felix is 1min 15secs ahead after 1hr 49mins of running! Here comes Heartbreak Hill .. .. .. .
Last edited by John G on Mon Apr 15, 2013 7:43 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Boston: Will Shalane's Irish eyes be smiling after?

Postby unclezadok » Mon Apr 15, 2013 7:38 am

Has Rawson said anything about a runner's "countenance" yet?
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Re: Boston: Will Shalane's Irish eyes be smiling after?

Postby aaronk » Mon Apr 15, 2013 7:39 am

Why is Felix looking back so often??
She has over a minute lead...last I heard!!
Is she seeing invisable demons?? :o
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Re: Boston: Will Shalane's Irish eyes be smiling after?

Postby John G » Mon Apr 15, 2013 7:40 am

Still 1:15 and she's 2:04 into the race. Wish she'd stop looking behind.
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Re: Boston: Will Shalane's Irish eyes be smiling after?

Postby Conor Dary » Mon Apr 15, 2013 7:41 am

Is Rawson really trying to prove how clever he is? The kilo average? What an idiot. Even he can't figure out what he is talking about.
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Re: Boston: Will Shalane's Irish eyes be smiling after?

Postby Conor Dary » Mon Apr 15, 2013 7:42 am

30 seconds now. The collapse is coming soon.
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Re: Boston: Will Shalane's Irish eyes be smiling after?

Postby DrJay » Mon Apr 15, 2013 7:44 am

I think Rawson just said "The Boston Marathon has not had a women's champion since 1985." He said something like that earlier as well.
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Re: Boston: Will Shalane's Irish eyes be smiling after?

Postby Conor Dary » Mon Apr 15, 2013 7:44 am

They should have a violin playing with Flanagan's inspirational tale. :roll:
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