NCAA formchart—women


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NCAA formchart—women

Postby gh » Tue Mar 26, 2013 12:53 pm

first full formchart of the year now posted to front page.

women even tighter than men: projects as a 1-point win for Oregon (with lots of wiggle room for LSU to move up from 5th in that event to beat them).
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Re: NCAA women's teams to be a thriller too

Postby gh » Tue Apr 02, 2013 6:02 pm

Second chart (now up) has a new team champion, with a serious 4-way battle in the cards. Not that there seem to be many NCAA team-score mavens around here anymore.
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Re: NCAA women's teams to be a thriller too

Postby jazzcyclist » Tue Apr 02, 2013 7:05 pm

I'm paying attention gh, and I really appreciate all the effort that goes into these prognostications.
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Re: NCAA women's teams to be a thriller too

Postby 26mi235 » Tue Apr 02, 2013 8:05 pm

Same here.
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Re: NCAA women's teams to be a thriller too

Postby aaronk » Tue Apr 02, 2013 10:24 pm

I put most emphasis on marks--records broken, etc...but being a Ducks fan, I'll be rooting for UO's women to win!!
And your latest formsheet shows SEVERAL places where they can gain points.
Most especially by Hasay moving up a place or two in both the 10K and 5K.....by Friday and Kesselring doing better in the 1500, by both relay teams moving up a place or two, and by Francis doing better in the 400.

Unless Saina makes an attempt at the CR in the 10K, Hasay can win it!
As I said before, she looked TOTALLY comfortable at Stanford.

Besides, with all the dual meets, Mt SAC and Penn coming up this month, I'm guessing that formchart will be MUCH changed come 4 weeks from now!!
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Re: NCAA women's teams to be a thriller too

Postby ed gee » Wed Apr 03, 2013 5:28 am

Saina 15:12/31:15

Hasay 15:37/32:46

Looks like a pretty even match.
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Re: NCAA women's teams to be a thriller too

Postby gh » Wed Apr 03, 2013 6:24 am

jazzcyclist wrote:I'm paying attention gh, and I really appreciate all the effort that goes into these prognostications.


Then you're supposed to bitch about all the screwed-up choices! :mrgreen:
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Re: NCAA women's teams to be a thriller too

Postby aaronk » Wed Apr 03, 2013 7:52 am

ed gee wrote:Saina 15:12/31:15

Hasay 15:37/32:46

Looks like a pretty even match.


Prior to last year's NCAA, Natosha Rogers hadn't broken 33.....or was that 34??
Then she WINS in 32:41!!

Then a couple of weeks later, she runs 42 seconds faster!!

Hasay looked SUPER comfortable running 16:44 and 16:02 splits......finishing basically "first" amongst the "non-superstars"......just as Reid and Cain finished "1st and 2nd" among the "NON-superstars" in that Boston two mile!!

I may be proved wrong, but I believe she has a full minute to slash from that 32:46.
So, like I said, unless Saina goes for a 31:18 or faster, Hasay SHOULD be in the fight!!
Last edited by aaronk on Wed Apr 03, 2013 8:18 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: NCAA women's teams to be a thriller too

Postby jazzcyclist » Wed Apr 03, 2013 8:13 am

Last year, this magazine noted that Rebecca Alexander was the most critical athlete for LSU's title hopes, and Alexander went out and had the meet of her life - 2nd place in the 400, superb on the third leg of the 4x100 and a 49.5 split in the 4x400. This year, the two LSU athletes I'll be following closely going into the championship season are Nikita Tracey and Shana-Gaye Tracey (not related). As the Traceys go, so goes LSU.
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Re: NCAA women's teams to be a thriller too

Postby Mighty Favog » Wed Apr 03, 2013 8:22 am

All four contenders are rated in the 4x100. Between regionals and nationals,each team has to get that stick around the track four times. Big disadvantage to whoever screws that up.
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Re: NCAA women's teams to be a thriller too

Postby jazzcyclist » Wed Apr 03, 2013 9:59 am

Mighty Favog wrote:All four contenders are rated in the 4x100. Between regionals and nationals,each team has to get that stick around the track four times. Big disadvantage to whoever screws that up.

Aside from LSU's 2009 DNF, Texas A&M and LSU have had the top two spots locked up for the last six years and they've also accounted for all 27 of the collegiate sub-43 performances during that time period. What do you think the odds are that all four teams make it to the final in Eugene? Also, what are the odds that Central Florida can break up the Tiger-Aggie or Aggie-Tiger 1-2?
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Re: NCAA women's teams to be a thriller too

Postby LadyT » Wed Apr 03, 2013 10:27 am

The points will change anyway due to the underestimation of certain athletes like Auriyelle Scott who will undoubtely put up more points than the charts project her too.
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Re: NCAA women's teams to be a thriller too

Postby gh » Wed Apr 03, 2013 1:12 pm

Oregon is shockingly unbalanced for a Duck team. They won the Indoor without a single field point and don't currently project for any outdoors either.

in the history of the NCAA women's meet (starting in '82), the only years in which they haven't scored a field point are '84, '86, '94, '95, '96, '97, '98.

Of course, the secret to winning NCAA team titles doesn't lie in having a balanced team; it's putting together the right mix of sprinters and hurdlers who can double up individually, then double/triple back on relay(s) as well. And as a backup strategy, doubling distance runners.

(which is terrible for the sport as a whole, as jumpers and throwers are treated as second-class citizens)
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Re: NCAA women's teams to be a thriller too

Postby jazzcyclist » Wed Apr 03, 2013 2:52 pm

gh wrote:(which is terrible for the sport as a whole, as jumpers and throwers are treated as second-class citizens)

I'm not so sure about that. It's common for horizontal jumpers to double, and the Arkansas, LSU and Florida men have all had some pretty big stars who've carried their teams over the years.
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Re: NCAA women's teams to be a thriller too

Postby doug5321 » Wed Apr 03, 2013 3:10 pm

the event that i think will be EXTRA special is the womens 400, marita paynes 50.06 NCAA record could be bettered by multiple people in that race.
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Re: NCAA formchart—women

Postby gh » Wed May 15, 2013 3:07 pm

latest chart now on front page: KU still ahead of Oregon by a point, but that's with Gardner not running the 200 for the Ducks.
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Re: NCAA women's teams to be a thriller too

Postby jazzcyclist » Sat May 25, 2013 2:31 pm

Mighty Favog wrote:All four contenders are rated in the 4x100. Between regionals and nationals,each team has to get that stick around the track four times. Big disadvantage to whoever screws that up.

LSU was the fastest qualifier in the East, but Central Florida made it safely through as well.
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Re: NCAA formchart—women

Postby gh » Sat May 25, 2013 2:43 pm

Oregon may have suffered a fatal blow when Hasay didn't advance in the 10K.
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Re: NCAA formchart—women

Postby gh » Sat May 25, 2013 2:52 pm

And w/ Vaughan's non-Q, A&M takes a monster hit; things looking rosy for Kansas at this point.
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Re: NCAA formchart—women

Postby jazzcyclist » Sat May 25, 2013 2:53 pm

gh wrote:Oregon may have suffered a fatal blow when Hasay didn't advance in the 10K.

Well, maybe not since both Kansas and Texas A&M have taken big hits as well.
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Re: NCAA formchart—women

Postby jazzcyclist » Sat May 25, 2013 2:56 pm

gh wrote:And w/ Vaughan's non-Q, A&M takes a monster hit; things looking rosy for Kansas at this point.

I guess you haven't heard about Francine Simpson.
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Re: NCAA formchart—women

Postby j-a-m » Sun May 26, 2013 7:16 am

gh wrote:latest chart now on front page: KU still ahead of Oregon by a point, but that's with Gardner not running the 200 for the Ducks.

At the same time, Oregon is projected for 10 points in the 4x4 (with only 1 point for Kansas). That's optimistic for Oregon, especially if Gardner runs 4x1, 200, and 4x4 within a couple hours.

Without Gardner, Oregon's w4x4 was only about 7th in their Regionals heat after the first two runners, before Roesler ran a great leg to move them into 3rd.
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Re: NCAA formchart—women

Postby ATK » Sun May 26, 2013 8:50 am

j-a-m wrote:
gh wrote:latest chart now on front page: KU still ahead of Oregon by a point, but that's with Gardner not running the 200 for the Ducks.

At the same time, Oregon is projected for 10 points in the 4x4 (with only 1 point for Kansas). That's optimistic for Oregon, especially if Gardner runs 4x1, 200, and 4x4 within a couple hours.

Without Gardner, Oregon's w4x4 was only about 7th in their Regionals heat after the first two runners, before Roesler ran a great leg to move them into 3rd.

Yea, that 4x4 had me worried, and actually made me think who they ran with before Gardner? Her first appearance on the relay was only at the outdoor finals last year, while the other 3 legs have remained consistent.
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Re: NCAA formchart—women

Postby 26mi235 » Sun May 26, 2013 10:36 am

Last year she had a surprisingly strong 400 leg of about 50.x (can someone get more accurate). Take off about 2 seconds and they look pretty strong.
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Re: NCAA formchart—women

Postby aaronk » Sun May 26, 2013 10:58 am

26mi235 wrote:Last year she had a surprisingly strong 400 leg of about 50.x (can someone get more accurate). Take off about 2 seconds and they look pretty strong.


From Athletics Annual 2013, I found this:

Mixed Nationality Teams
Un of Oregon USA

3:24.54 (Gardner 51.1, Okodogbe NGR 51.4, Roesler 51.80, Francis 50.15.
1 NCAA Des Moines June 9
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Re: NCAA formchart—women

Postby ATK » Sun May 26, 2013 12:00 pm

26mi235 wrote:Last year she had a surprisingly strong 400 leg of about 50.x (can someone get more accurate). Take off about 2 seconds and they look pretty strong.


Yea, they have already run 3:26 earlier this year. The only difference is that now Gardner is in the 200, and if she makes the finals, that only gives her one hour before she has to lead off the in the relay. But they are also at home, so adrenaline will be through the roof.
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Re: NCAA formchart—women

Postby gh » Sun May 26, 2013 12:13 pm

a 400 an hour after a 200 should be a piece of cake
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Re: NCAA formchart—women

Postby ATK » Sun May 26, 2013 12:19 pm

gh wrote:a 400 an hour after a 200 should be a piece of cake

I agree, but im just bringing up the differences considering last year she did 2 rounds of the 100, and 2 4x1 legs before the mile relay

This year it's 2 rounds of the 100, 2 rounds of the 200, possibly the 4x4 prelims, and 2 4x1 legs.
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Re: NCAA formchart—women

Postby jazzcyclist » Sun May 26, 2013 12:28 pm

You also have to look at the 4x400 heats too. Robert Johnson would have to decide whether to run someone else in her place and risk not making it to the final. I've seen other coaches in similar predicaments call it either way. Some coaches don't want to risk running their stars into the ground before the meet is finsihed and some coaches don't want to risk not getting their 4x400 team into the final.
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Re: NCAA formchart—women

Postby jazzcyclist » Sun May 26, 2013 12:33 pm

gh wrote:a 400 an hour after a 200 should be a piece of cake

And the 200 is 38 minutes after a 100. It would be similar to what X-man did in 2006, but remember that X-man didn't run the 4x400 heats.
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Re: NCAA formchart—women

Postby ATK » Sun May 26, 2013 12:46 pm

jazzcyclist wrote:You also have to look at the 4x400 heats too. Robert Johnson would have to decide whether to run someone else in her place and risk not making it to the final. I've seen other coaches in similar predicaments call it either way. Some coaches don't want to risk running their stars into the ground before the meet is finsihed and some coaches don't want to risk not getting their 4x400 team into the final.

I agree, and watching their 2nd leg performance at regionals, it seems they do not have enough backup to take a risk.
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Re: NCAA formchart—women

Postby j-a-m » Sun May 26, 2013 3:03 pm

jazzcyclist wrote:You also have to look at the 4x400 heats too. Robert Johnson would have to decide whether to run someone else in her place and risk not making it to the final. I've seen other coaches in similar predicaments call it either way. Some coaches don't want to risk running their stars into the ground before the meet is finsihed and some coaches don't want to risk not getting their 4x400 team into the final.

In addition, Gardner is not the only star; Francis and Roesler could also score significant points in their individual events. And without Gardner running the semis, they may have to put in significant efforts to make the final.
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Re: NCAA formchart—women

Postby j-a-m » Sun May 26, 2013 3:06 pm

ATK wrote:Yea, that 4x4 had me worried, and actually made me think who they ran with before Gardner? Her first appearance on the relay was only at the outdoor finals last year, while the other 3 legs have remained consistent.

Last year Gosberry ran in the semis; not sure if she graduated or is still around.
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Re: NCAA formchart—women

Postby Mighty Favog » Sun May 26, 2013 3:33 pm

jazzcyclist wrote:You also have to look at the 4x400 heats too. Robert Johnson would have to decide whether to run someone else in her place and risk not making it to the final. I've seen other coaches in similar predicaments call it either way. Some coaches don't want to risk running their stars into the ground before the meet is finsihed and some coaches don't want to risk not getting their 4x400 team into the final.
My best guess from reading the tea-leaves about Johnson is that he'd rather go all-in than take any risks about leaving points on the table.

After looking at the prelim round, I think it's probably going to come down to Oregon and Texas A&M. All three lost about eight points, so they're equal there. Kansas has little chance to score unexpected points but Oregon and Texas A&M both do. I suppose Arizona State or Arkansas or LSU could make a run at it, but they are long shots.
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Re: NCAA formchart—women

Postby jazzcyclist » Sun May 26, 2013 4:21 pm

Mighty Favog wrote:
jazzcyclist wrote:You also have to look at the 4x400 heats too. Robert Johnson would have to decide whether to run someone else in her place and risk not making it to the final. I've seen other coaches in similar predicaments call it either way. Some coaches don't want to risk running their stars into the ground before the meet is finsihed and some coaches don't want to risk not getting their 4x400 team into the final.
My best guess from reading the tea-leaves about Johnson is that he'd rather go all-in than take any risks about leaving points on the table.

I don't know what you mean by "leaving points on the table", but if Gardener runs the 4x400 heats, it will likely cost her some placings in the next day's 100, not to mention Saturday's 200. In 2009 when Texas A&M's 4x400 team was in a similar situation, Pat Henry made the desision to hold out Porscha Lucas in the heats and they failed to qualify, but Lucas went on to win the 200 by 0.03s over the 2nd placer and 0.07s over the third placer. IMO, the decision to hold out Lucas was worth at least 4 points in the 200, while Texas A&M probably lost no more than a point or two in the 4x400 final, and keep in mind that they could have gotten zero points in the final since the site of the 2009 Championships took place at Arkansas' 9-lane track. In the end, Pat Henry was vindicated in his decision when Texas A&M brought home the school's first track and field national championship.
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Re: NCAA formchart—women

Postby gh » Wed May 29, 2013 9:59 am

latest chart now posted... KU still with a 1-point lead over Oregon, with A&M falling out of the picture (probably).
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Re: NCAA formchart—women

Postby 26mi235 » Wed May 29, 2013 10:48 am

With Kansas and Oregon 4/5 in the 4x100 there are differential points. Vollmer and Geubelle in the Hept (4) and LJ (3) as well as Bergmann in the JT (9) and Bartnovskaya PV (4) seem like best places for Kansas to pick up points, especially since several of those events have 'high variance' (e.g., people falling off/dinged up in the Hept; wind in the vault) and with no points currently for the selected 9th.

Oregon has their spots as well, although Hasay could well finish further back in the 5000, especially if the 10,000 is slow and tactical helping doublers. Also, Gardener is possibly over-worked with up to eight races [100h/100, 200h/200, 4x100h(?)/4x100 and 4x400h(?)/4x400]. Given the fragility of these two, with many 1/2 placings allowing little upside, Arkansas/LSU/TxA&M may come back into the picture.
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Re: NCAA formchart—women

Postby aaronk » Wed May 29, 2013 11:20 am

Being a DUCKS fan through and through......Go Ducks!!.....I'll sift through their points potential a bit.

Will frosh Jenna Prandini finish higher than 8th?
Shouldn't English Gardner be higher than 6th in 200?
Chizoba Okodogbe might score 1 or 2 points in the 400!
Don't the Ducks have anyone other than Laura Roesler in the 800?
(They should!!)
As seniors, Ann Kesselring and Becca Friday (She's a fellow Bellingham-ster!! :D ) could easily go higher than 4th and 7th, respectively!!
The ONLY possible LOSS of points might be Jordan Hasay in the 5000. I thought she had a MUCH better chance in the 10K She might have to PR by 20 seconds just to make the top 3!!
Finally, in the 4X100R, Kansas and Oregon are picked 4th and 5th now.
What if those places were reversed??
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Re: NCAA formchart—women

Postby jazzcyclist » Wed May 29, 2013 12:04 pm

I see that the latest formcharts have written off LSU's Jasmin Stowers and Nikita Tracey, but both of them are capable of making the final. Stowers is still shaking off the rust after taking more than a month off to nurse a hamstring, and Tracey has shown flashes of brilliance throughout the season, and if they both have the meets they're capable of, LSU should be in the hunt.
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Re: NCAA formchart—women

Postby jazzcyclist » Wed May 29, 2013 12:07 pm

26mi235 wrote:Also, Gardener is possibly over-worked with up to eight races [100h/100, 200h/200, 4x100h(?)/4x100 and 4x400h(?)/4x400].

I would pencil Gardener in for at least seven races because I can't imagine Oregon running an alternate in the 4x100 heats.
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