Good tips for picking NCAA tourney games


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Good tips for picking NCAA tourney games

Postby BillVol » Mon Mar 18, 2013 6:49 am

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Re: Good tips for picking NCAA tourney games

Postby Marlow » Mon Mar 18, 2013 7:17 am

Then there's the lady that won a big pot because she picked who would win in a mascot battle, or the guy that won based on 'uniform colors dominance'. :roll:
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Re: Good tips for picking NCAA tourney games

Postby DrJay » Mon Mar 18, 2013 9:03 am

In our office contest, I'm going with a coin flip for any game with less than a 7 seed difference between the teams.Will report back in 21 days 12 hours.
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Re: Good tips for picking NCAA tourney games

Postby 26mi235 » Mon Mar 18, 2013 9:21 am

At our office they have you pick five players and the score is the total points from those players. Clearly, early exits hurt, but the optimization problem is well suited for several of those that play.
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Re: Good tips for picking NCAA tourney games

Postby Pego » Mon Mar 18, 2013 11:50 am

This is the most even field in my memory. History could be made of a 16 knocking off 1 for the first time. It will be brutal, in the gyms and even more so in the office pools :D .
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Re: Good tips for picking NCAA tourney games

Postby mcgato » Mon Mar 18, 2013 1:57 pm

I posted this on another thread, so I'll shamelessly repost:
I like looking at an RPI table like the one linked:
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/rpi
I especially like the record against teams ranked 1-25, 26-50, and 51-100. Gives an idea of how many good teams were played and how they did against them.

Some fun things that pop out:
--North Carolina is 1-7 against teams ranked 1-25, and 1-1 against teams ranked 26-50. So they are 2-8 against the top 50 in the RPI. Not very good.
--Florida is 1-2 against 1-25, and 4-2 against 26-50. Combined 5-4 against the top 50, not very good for a 3 seed. And Florida frequently crashes out early.
--Gonzaga is slightly better, going 1-1 against 1-25, and 5-1 against 26-50. Gonzaga has historically done better in the tournament as a low seed.
--Syracuse is 2-5 against 1-25, and 4-3 against 26-50. A combined 6-8 against the top 50, which is not good for a 4 seed.

Lots of other fun things to see. Click on a team to see the breakdown of each of the columns. I like to use it to help me see who the possible pretenders are in the field. Other things that I look for is poor free throw shooting teams who tend to lose games because of it. Also how teams do at home versus the road.
I agree that this looks like a very even field, but I'm guessing that in the end the final four will all be top 3 seeds. I'm going with that contrary view. Now if I could only find four teams that I trust...
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Re: Good tips for picking NCAA tourney games

Postby 26mi235 » Mon Mar 18, 2013 9:16 pm

There are some pretty decent 3/4/5 seeds. I was rather disappointed at the seeding of Wisconsin after they had beaten seven teams ranked in the top 15. Then I took a look at the teams in the 2/3/4 seeds and they are all pretty reasonable. Michigan, 4 would be my first choice for an entry to the Final Four, although the 4/5 seeds Kansas State/Wisconsin could knock off a Gonzaga team that has little experience with good teams aside from their quick run through the Big 12 (that included the aforementioned K-State).
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Re: Good tips for picking NCAA tourney games

Postby Pego » Tue Mar 19, 2013 7:33 am

26mi235 wrote:There are some pretty decent 3/4/5 seeds. I was rather disappointed at the seeding of Wisconsin after they had beaten seven teams ranked in the top 15. Then I took a look at the teams in the 2/3/4 seeds and they are all pretty reasonable. Michigan, 4 would be my first choice for an entry to the Final Four, although the 4/5 seeds Kansas State/Wisconsin could knock off a Gonzaga team that has little experience with good teams aside from their quick run through the Big 12 (that included the aforementioned K-State).


I have the Zags losing to Pitt in the round of 32 (technically the third).
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Re: Good tips for picking NCAA tourney games

Postby DrJay » Tue Mar 19, 2013 2:07 pm

The coin toss method I described got me Oklahoma St over Arizona and Miami over KU in the semis, and Ok St over KU in the final.
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Re: Good tips for picking NCAA tourney games

Postby gh » Tue Mar 19, 2013 3:22 pm

you can always use the Wall Street Journal's pick-blind tool.

http://projects.wsj.com/blindfold-brackets-2013/
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Re: Good tips for picking NCAA tourney games

Postby Marlow » Tue Mar 19, 2013 4:55 pm

gh wrote:you can always use the Wall Street Journal's pick-blind tool.

http://projects.wsj.com/blindfold-brackets-2013/


That was fun! I ended up with
Duke, TOSU, Fla, and Syr

Syr to win it all!
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Re: Good tips for picking NCAA tourney games

Postby bambam » Wed Mar 20, 2013 6:15 pm

Marlow wrote:
gh wrote:you can always use the Wall Street Journal's pick-blind tool.

http://projects.wsj.com/blindfold-brackets-2013/


That was fun! I ended up with
Duke, TOSU, Fla, and Syr

Syr to win it all!


That was fun - I got Duke, Gonzaga, Kansas, Miami for Final 4 - I had Duke winning, but I guess I sorta knew where they where?!?!
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Re: Good tips for picking NCAA tourney games

Postby rsb2 » Wed Mar 20, 2013 7:48 pm

Good fun, indeed. I played it completely by the descriptions, trying to interpret matchups, no attempt to guess which team was which (I wouldn't have known anyway), and I ended up with 6 of the top 8 seeds in my round of 8. Louisville/Gonzaga/Indiana/Florida(?) in my Final Four, with Florida over Louisville in the final. Marlow, were you involved in some nefarious way? :)
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Re: Good tips for picking NCAA tourney games

Postby donley2 » Thu Mar 21, 2013 5:44 am

mcgato wrote:
I agree that this looks like a very even field, but I'm guessing that in the end the final four will all be top 3 seeds. I'm going with that contrary view. Now if I could only find four teams that I trust...[/quote]

I am with mcgato. While i would concur that the very top end (who makes the final four/eight) is probably less predictable than ever, I don't think there will be an unusual number of early round upsets. I think the middle of the pack teams (7 seeds and below or so) are just as week (relatively speaking) as the top end.
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Re: Good tips for picking NCAA tourney games

Postby gh » Thu Mar 21, 2013 7:00 am

yes, but depending on the scoring system used (i.e., if there are premium points the deeper you go into the tourney), it may not matter who the Final 4 are.
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Re: Good tips for picking NCAA tourney games

Postby Tuariki » Thu Mar 21, 2013 8:28 am

Pego wrote:
26mi235 wrote:There are some pretty decent 3/4/5 seeds. I was rather disappointed at the seeding of Wisconsin after they had beaten seven teams ranked in the top 15. Then I took a look at the teams in the 2/3/4 seeds and they are all pretty reasonable. Michigan, 4 would be my first choice for an entry to the Final Four, although the 4/5 seeds Kansas State/Wisconsin could knock off a Gonzaga team that has little experience with good teams aside from their quick run through the Big 12 (that included the aforementioned K-State).


I have the Zags losing to Pitt in the round of 32 (technically the third).

Same.
Even though I was adamant that Gonzaga deserved #1ranking and #1 seed my NZ blindness comes through and the Adams family will dominate this weekend. Val will go over 21m at the NZ champs and baby brother Steven will dominate Olynk.
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Re: Good tips for picking NCAA tourney games

Postby gh » Thu Mar 21, 2013 10:47 am

Michigan State wins! I'm on my way to a perfect bracket!!!! :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:
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Re: Good tips for picking NCAA tourney games

Postby rsb2 » Thu Mar 21, 2013 1:09 pm

Have to be cheering for Gonzaga, with a couple of Canadians playing key roles!
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Re: Good tips for picking NCAA tourney games

Postby 26mi235 » Thu Mar 21, 2013 1:52 pm

Marquette, a poor perimeter-shooting team, hits three 3s in the last 62 seconds and adds a layup to pull out a victory.

Gonzaga and Oklahoma State are not quite burning up the floor, G leading 34-31 at Half, and OSU behind 37-26 to Oregon.
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Re: Good tips for picking NCAA tourney games

Postby Tuariki » Thu Mar 21, 2013 2:44 pm

Tuariki wrote:
Pego wrote:
26mi235 wrote:There are some pretty decent 3/4/5 seeds. I was rather disappointed at the seeding of Wisconsin after they had beaten seven teams ranked in the top 15. Then I took a look at the teams in the 2/3/4 seeds and they are all pretty reasonable. Michigan, 4 would be my first choice for an entry to the Final Four, although the 4/5 seeds Kansas State/Wisconsin could knock off a Gonzaga team that has little experience with good teams aside from their quick run through the Big 12 (that included the aforementioned K-State).


I have the Zags losing to Pitt in the round of 32 (technically the third).

Same.
Even though I was adamant that Gonzaga deserved #1ranking and #1 seed my NZ blindness comes through and the Adams family will dominate this weekend. Val will go over 21m at the NZ champs and baby brother Steven will dominate Olynk.

Damn. Steven Adams must have swallowed his sister's shot.
Oh well,here's hoping Val gets the shot back in time to throw it over 21m.
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Re: Good tips for picking NCAA tourney games

Postby Conor Dary » Thu Mar 21, 2013 3:06 pm

The Ducks over OSU! Sorry about that lonewolf.... :D
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Re: Good tips for picking NCAA tourney games

Postby gh » Thu Mar 21, 2013 3:21 pm

I went for the Ducks in my bracket simply because I felt San José would be a "home game" for them (hour's flight, no time-zone change, regional conference loyalties).

SF paper this morning said

<<Most underrated team: Oregon - Despite being a combined 4-0 against UCLA, UNLV and Arizona, finishing second in the Pac-12 regular season and winning the conference tournament, the Ducks were seeded 12th, facing a tough opening game against Oklahoma State and a tougher second game against St. Louis.>>
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Re: Good tips for picking NCAA tourney games

Postby DrJay » Thu Mar 21, 2013 7:21 pm

DrJay wrote:The coin toss method I described got me Oklahoma St over Arizona and Miami over KU in the semis, and Ok St over KU in the final.


Well, so much for that method....
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Re: Good tips for picking NCAA tourney games

Postby lonewolf » Thu Mar 21, 2013 7:28 pm

Conor Dary wrote:The Ducks over OSU! Sorry about that lonewolf.... :D

I can tell you are broken up about it :)
The Cowboys have been too inconsistent this year to have much confidence they would go deep into the tournament but I did not expect such a dismal showing..
When you see a game like that, you wonder HTF did they get this far? :?
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Re: Good tips for picking NCAA tourney games

Postby rsb2 » Thu Mar 21, 2013 9:39 pm

The WSJ methodology garnered me 11/16 in the round of 32, but still 8/8 towards the round of 16. A lot of interesting games today, and I think I will attempt a personal re-structuring after the round of 16 is finalized, just for fun of course. Unless anyone wants to wager a beverage or so at a future track meet. :)
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Re: Good tips for picking NCAA tourney games

Postby donley2 » Fri Mar 22, 2013 5:05 am

http://espn.go.com/blog/collegebasketballnation
After the first day of games, there are 1,238 perfect brackets out of 8.15 million entered in Tournament Challenge.


President Obama: 10-6
Dick Vitale: 11-5
Joe Lunardi: 9-7
Mike Greenberg: 11-5
Mike Golic: 12-4
Michael Wilbon: 8-8
Tony Kornheiser: 10-6
Colin Cowherd: 11-5
Scott Van Pelt: 9-7
Ryen Russillo: 8-8

An all-chalk bracket (picking all the higher seeds): 12-4.

I think I was 12-4 (putting my previous lack of upset talk where my bracket is). I did not actually look at my results this morning however to verify that.
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Re: Good tips for picking NCAA tourney games

Postby gh » Fri Mar 22, 2013 5:41 am

I was 14-2, proving that following the sport closely is indeed not required!
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Re: Good tips for picking NCAA tourney games

Postby wineturtle » Fri Mar 22, 2013 5:42 am

Anyone know how the seeding committee's picks have faired over the last 10 or so years-- how many higher seeds won how may #1s got to final 4 that kind of thing?
I have in the past just gone with the seeding numbers and usually score in the top 15 or 20 % of the contests I entered. The small local pool I'm in has a repick at the sweet 16. That is great when the pool contains a number of folks, like me, who do not follow the sport in enough depth and might lose interest if their teams get knocked out early- yeah it's a pub pool- they want fannies on the stools for every game.
good luck to all.

edit
picking on my own I'm sitting in the top 18% of espn with 12-4 record and 15/16 of the sweet16 and 8/8 as we go deeper
Last edited by wineturtle on Fri Mar 22, 2013 5:57 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Good tips for picking NCAA tourney games

Postby donley2 » Fri Mar 22, 2013 5:45 am

wineturtle wrote:Anyone know how the seeding committee's picks have faired over the last 10 or so years-- how many higher seeds won how may #1s got to final 4 that kind of thing?
I have in the past just gone with the seeding numbers and usually score in the top 15 or 20 % of the contests I entered. The small local pool I'm in has a repick at the sweet 16. That is great when the pool contains a number of folks, like me, who do not follow the sport in enough depth and might lose interest if their teams get knocked out early- yeah it's a pub pool- they want fannies on the stools for every game.
good luck to all.


From wiki

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NCAA_Men's ... ampionship

Round of 64 seed pairing results
NCAA Tournament % Wins per rankSince the inception of the 64-team tournament in 1985, through 2012, each seed-pairing has played a total of 112 games, with the following results:

1.The #1 seed is 112–0 against the #16 seed (100%).
2.The #2 seed is 106–6 against the #15 seed (94.64%).
3.The #3 seed is 96–16 against the #14 seed (85.71%).
4.The #4 seed is 88–24 against the #13 seed (78.57%).
5.The #5 seed is 74–38 against the #12 seed (66.07%).
6.The #6 seed is 74–38 against the #11 seed (66.07%).
7.The #7 seed is 67–45 against the #10 seed (59.82%).
8.The #8 seed is 54–58 against the #9 seed (48.21%).
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Re: Good tips for picking NCAA tourney games

Postby wineturtle » Fri Mar 22, 2013 6:03 am

donley2 wrote:
wineturtle wrote:Anyone know how the seeding committee's picks have faired over the last 10 or so years-- how many higher seeds won how may #1s got to final 4 that kind of thing?
I have in the past just gone with the seeding numbers and usually score in the top 15 or 20 % of the contests I entered. The small local pool I'm in has a repick at the sweet 16. That is great when the pool contains a number of folks, like me, who do not follow the sport in enough depth and might lose interest if their teams get knocked out early- yeah it's a pub pool- they want fannies on the stools for every game.
good luck to all.


From wiki

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NCAA_Men's ... ampionship

Round of 64 seed pairing results
NCAA Tournament % Wins per rankSince the inception of the 64-team tournament in 1985, through 2012, each seed-pairing has played a total of 112 games, with the following results:

1.The #1 seed is 112–0 against the #16 seed (100%).
2.The #2 seed is 106–6 against the #15 seed (94.64%).
3.The #3 seed is 96–16 against the #14 seed (85.71%).
4.The #4 seed is 88–24 against the #13 seed (78.57%).
5.The #5 seed is 74–38 against the #12 seed (66.07%).
6.The #6 seed is 74–38 against the #11 seed (66.07%).
7.The #7 seed is 67–45 against the #10 seed (59.82%).
8.The #8 seed is 54–58 against the #9 seed (48.21%).


Thanks!!

OK make me look lazy by pointing to wiki :wink:
At least you did not give me the -you could google it yourself link :)
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Re: Good tips for picking NCAA tourney games

Postby donley2 » Fri Mar 22, 2013 6:08 am

If you look further down that page to the round of 32 game odds you do see, that while everybody loves the long shot, low seeds really do not advance very far the vast majority of the time.
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Re: Good tips for picking NCAA tourney games

Postby 26mi235 » Fri Mar 22, 2013 8:09 am

The 8/9 split is not significant, as they play each other first. The 54/58 result confirms this.
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Re: Good tips for picking NCAA tourney games

Postby gh » Fri Mar 22, 2013 10:58 am

damned Badgers! A 2-round hit for me.
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Re: Good tips for picking NCAA tourney games

Postby Pego » Fri Mar 22, 2013 2:18 pm

gh wrote:damned Badgers! A 2-round hit for me.


Most disappointing. They just couldn't score.
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Re: Good tips for picking NCAA tourney games

Postby gh » Fri Mar 22, 2013 2:26 pm

Chris Solinsky tweet

<<I immediately regret picking Wisconsin to the Final Four in ALL of my brackets. No longer interested in the NCAA tournament. #tragic.>>
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Re: Good tips for picking NCAA tourney games

Postby DrJay » Fri Mar 22, 2013 7:04 pm

Coin toss method failed, but I have Miami winning it all in my other office pool bracket. The ACC, baby!
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Re: Good tips for picking NCAA tourney games

Postby jeremyp » Fri Mar 22, 2013 7:27 pm

Little old FGCU beat Georgetown. They're from little old Ft. Myers Florida, my current domain. Unfreakingbelievable.
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Re: Good tips for picking NCAA tourney games

Postby rsb2 » Fri Mar 22, 2013 10:02 pm

Not a good day, 7 wins and 9 losses for a 2-day total of 18 wins / 14 losses. Somehow, I still have a highly theoretical possibility of having 14 teams in the Sweet Sixteen, having lost only Georgetown and Kansas State. At this point, I will gladly settle for a Terrific Ten!
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Re: Good tips for picking NCAA tourney games

Postby gh » Sat Mar 23, 2013 7:12 am

I wonder how yesterday was on the all-time carnage list? My picks weren't remotely adventuresome and I went from a 14-2 Thursday to a 9-7. Sheesh!

But i LOVE all the upsets.
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Re: Good tips for picking NCAA tourney games

Postby donley2 » Sat Mar 23, 2013 2:01 pm

gh wrote:Chris Solinsky tweet

<<I immediately regret picking Wisconsin to the Final Four in ALL of my brackets. No longer interested in the NCAA tournament. #tragic.>>


I have not lost all interest, because I really like college basketball, but dang K-State losing (after Mississippi had gotten rid of our nemesis Wisconsin) sure took the wind out of my sails yesterday.
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