WXC predictions


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WXC predictions

Postby Jnathletics » Thu Mar 07, 2013 10:06 am

Since it seems fan interest is down on the World X-C championships, I want to spark some interest.

I will host a prediction contest, anyone else up for it?

My rules

Senior race only;
Entrant picks 8 men and 8 women, plus 3 teams + USA (4 total in both mens and womens)

The individuals will be a 7 person team with an alternate, the catch is you cannot select 2 athletes from the same country. (should make it tougher with 1 per country for the men and women, but I'll let it be one per Men and 1 per women, so you can have 2 kenyans one women and one man and so on...)

The team category is predict your 3 + USA teams finish and score in both the mens and womens events. Points will be awarded by how far off you are to those prediction

Scoring will be cross country style. You get the # of points your individuals place and how far off you predicted your teams. Lowest score wins.

Example

Men's
individuals
Merga ETH 1
Kiprop Ken 3
Kiprotich UGA 6
Mahbood BRN 9
Medhin ERI 14 :oops:
Mokoka RSA 15
Mottram AUS 21
69

Men's Team
Kenya 1-10 (actual 1-14) +4 points
Ethiopia 2-20 (actual 2-38) +18 points
Spain 3-62 (actual 8-149) +92 points
USA 7 -102 (actual 9-195) +77 points
191

Total score
individual 69 + team 191 = 260

So you can predict any team you like and the closer you are to that team the better doesn't matter if they win or not. So if your fav team is GBR, you can include them by predicting 15-300 and when they come in 15th with 301 your score is only 1 point. :P

So how well do you know your fav country's X-C talent.

Individuals will be based soley on finishing position, no need to predict their actual place. The 8th member is only there if someone on your team DNF's.

(additional rules:) If more than 1 of your team's individuals DNF than the 2nd (and more) DNF'er will get last place finisher +1 points. So, if 150 men finish the race and your 6th and 7th DNF, you get your 8th runners place (replaces # 6) plus 151 for the 7th team member DNF'ing. DNF'ers will all score the same, last +1 no matter how many there are.

Tie breakers will be closest or best USA team predictions (mens first then womens)

Sorry scoring maybe slow on this one, not sure how much time I will have to right a spread sheet. May have to do it by hand.
Last edited by Jnathletics on Thu Mar 07, 2013 4:12 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: WXC predictions

Postby exdrake » Thu Mar 07, 2013 10:08 am

At the risk of being accused of being stuck in the '70's I gotta go with a European sweep.
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Re: WXC predictions

Postby Conor Dary » Thu Mar 07, 2013 11:13 am

Jnathletics wrote:Since it seems fan interest is down on the World X-C championships, I want to spark some interest.


Down? In a deep well and sinking is more like it. I forgot all about it. Is anyone even running? Where is it?
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Re: WXC predictions

Postby kuha » Thu Mar 07, 2013 11:15 am

Conor Dary wrote:
Jnathletics wrote:Since it seems fan interest is down on the World X-C championships, I want to spark some interest.


Down? In a deep well and sinking is more like it. I forgot all about it. Is anyone even running? Where is it?


Exactly. I honestly hadn't realized that it was happening at all.
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Re: WXC predictions

Postby Conor Dary » Thu Mar 07, 2013 11:19 am

Well if the race actually is happening, I predict the first 20 will be Kenyans, Ethiopians, and a few Europeans who were born in Kenya or Ethiopia. And all of them, I would bet, I never heard of before.

Are the Americans even going? Inquiring minds want to know....
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Re: WXC predictions

Postby TN1965 » Thu Mar 07, 2013 12:34 pm

Conor Dary wrote:Well if the race actually is happening, I predict the first 20 will be Kenyans, Ethiopians, and a few Europeans who were born in Kenya or Ethiopia. And all of them, I would bet, I never heard of before.

Are the Americans even going? Inquiring minds want to know....


So you've never heard of Tariku Bekele, Imane Merga, Meselech Melkamu and Tirnesh Dibaba? :shock:

Where have you been in the last decade? Hiding in a cave without TV/Internet connection? :lol:
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Re: WXC predictions

Postby kuha » Thu Mar 07, 2013 12:50 pm

http://www.iaaf.org/news/iaaf-news/worl ... ning-speed

Here's a story documenting the brilliantly successful promotion of this year's World X-C.
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Re: WXC predictions

Postby nevetsllim » Thu Mar 07, 2013 1:46 pm

I'll enter once the entry-lists are released.

And yes, the World Cross is happening. There's even coverage on the BBC!
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Re: WXC predictions

Postby Conor Dary » Thu Mar 07, 2013 3:08 pm

kuha wrote:http://www.iaaf.org/news/iaaf-news/world-cross-promotion-gaining-speed

Here's a story documenting the brilliantly successful promotion of this year's World X-C.


    “What makes the IAAF World Cross Country Championships a special event is the fact that it is dominated by athletes from one continent.


Yea, a great selling point.... :roll:
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Re: WXC predictions

Postby aaronk » Thu Mar 07, 2013 3:15 pm

Conor Dary wrote:
kuha wrote:http://www.iaaf.org/news/iaaf-news/world-cross-promotion-gaining-speed

Here's a story documenting the brilliantly successful promotion of this year's World X-C.


    “What makes the IAAF World Cross Country Championships a special event is the fact that it is dominated by athletes from one continent.


Yea, a great selling point.... :roll:


Look closely at the Top 40 list of the men's marathon in the Feb issue of T&FN.
Of the 41 athletes (41, because of a tie at 40th place)....
just TWO NATIONS are involved....Ethiopia and Kenya!!

Not even ONE runner from another country.....let alone another continent!! :shock:
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Re: WXC predictions

Postby kuha » Thu Mar 07, 2013 3:19 pm

Conor Dary wrote:
kuha wrote:http://www.iaaf.org/news/iaaf-news/world-cross-promotion-gaining-speed

Here's a story documenting the brilliantly successful promotion of this year's World X-C.


    “What makes the IAAF World Cross Country Championships a special event is the fact that it is dominated by athletes from one continent.


Yea, a great selling point.... :roll:


Unbelievable. Like saying that the World Series would be SO MUCH MORE EXCITING if it was between the Yankees and the Mets, every year, forever.
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Re: WXC predictions

Postby gh » Thu Mar 07, 2013 3:24 pm

Conor Dary wrote:Well if the race actually is happening, I predict the first 20 will be Kenyans, Ethiopians, and a few Europeans who were born in Kenya or Ethiopia. And all of them, I would bet, I never heard of before.

Are the Americans even going? Inquiring minds want to know....


roster was posted to our front page a couple of weeks back
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Re: WXC predictions

Postby ExCoastRanger » Thu Mar 07, 2013 4:32 pm

The US men's team (and how they placed at US Champs) looks to be
Chris Derrick (1)
Elliot Heath (4)
Ben True (5)
Ryan Vail (6)
Bobby Mack (7)

And the US women's team looks like
Kim Coneley (2)
Deena Kastor (3)
Emily Infeld (4)
Neely Spence (5)
Delilah Decrescenzo (6)
Mattie Suver (7)

http://www.usatf.org/Events---Calendar/ ... oster.aspx
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Re: WXC predictions

Postby Bruce Kritzler » Thu Mar 07, 2013 8:24 pm

US women's team has a shot at bronze medal.
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Re: WXC predictions

Postby Jnathletics » Sat Mar 09, 2013 11:30 am

Just keeping this at the top of the board, where it belongs. :D
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Re: WXC predictions

Postby nevetsllim » Tue Mar 12, 2013 3:35 am

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Re: WXC predictions

Postby aaronk » Tue Mar 12, 2013 4:12 am

Amy Eloise-Neale is British??
She ran for a WA state high school....and was a star!!
One to watch this spring for whatever college she's attending!!
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Re: WXC predictions

Postby Jnathletics » Tue Mar 12, 2013 8:25 am

Kenyan team set
Senior Men:

1. Kiptoo Timothy Kosgei (2nd)
2. Kirui Geoffrey Kipkorir (3rd)
3. Korir Japhet Kipyegon (6th)
4. Macharinyang Hosea Mwok (4th)
5. Ndiku Jonathan Muia (5th)
6. Rono Philemon (1st at kenyan trials)

Senior Women:

1. Chebet Emily (4th)
2. Cheptai Irene (2nd)
3. Kibiwot Viola Jelagat (6th)
4. Kisa Janeth (3rd)
5. Muriuki Margaret Wangari (1st)
6. Mutai Beatrice Chepkemei (5th)

http://www.capitalfm.co.ke/sports/2013/03/11/wildcards-axed-from-final-wxc-squad/

And Letsrun has an article that Kastor is running the LA Marathon on Sunday so I assume she is out for the USA team. :(
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Re: WXC predictions

Postby Jnathletics » Tue Mar 12, 2013 8:43 am

Ethiopia’s provisional squad for Bydogszcz

Senior men’s 12km
Feyisa Lilesa
Mosinet Geremew
Abera Chane
Imane Merga
Tariku Bekele
Mekashaw Eshete
Yenew Alamirew (reserve)
Berhanu Diro (reserve)

Senior women’s 8km
Hiwot Ayalew
Genet Yalew
Yebrqual Melese
Meselech Melkamu
Belaynesh Oljira
Tirunesh Dibaba
Sule Utura (reserve)
Genzebe Dibaba (reserve)

http://www.iaaf.org/competitions/iaaf-world-cross-country-championships/news/dibaba-sisters-defending-champion-merga-in-et
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Re: WXC predictions

Postby Powell » Mon Mar 18, 2013 2:08 am

It looks like the conditions in Bydgoszcz will still be wintery next weekend. I was hoping to see a *real* XC race with lots of mud on the course, but apparently the thaw won't come until a couple of days after the champs :-/
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Re: WXC predictions

Postby tandfman » Mon Mar 18, 2013 5:50 am

Deena Kastor is still listed on the US team roster. Is she really going to Poland this week, having just run the LA Marathon on Sunday?
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Re: WXC predictions

Postby TN1965 » Mon Mar 18, 2013 12:09 pm

After the USAXC, Kastor indicated that she intended to compete in both LA marathon and World XC. I assume nothing has changed since.

On the other hand, I believe Tirunesh is out, since she pulled out of London marathon.
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Re: WXC predictions

Postby Powell » Tue Mar 19, 2013 5:49 am

Here's what the course in Bydgoszcz is looking like today :?
http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?v=353 ... =2&theater
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Re: WXC predictions

Postby Conor Dary » Tue Mar 19, 2013 7:51 am

That really looks a great place to run...

With the meet this weekend I am reminded that NBC showed same day coverage of the meet in Gateshead 30 years ago. :cry:
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Re: WXC predictions

Postby Powell » Tue Mar 19, 2013 11:38 pm

TN1965 wrote:On the other hand, I believe Tirunesh is out, since she pulled out of London marathon.


That's right. She is not on the final entry list.
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Re: WXC predictions

Postby nevetsllim » Thu Mar 21, 2013 11:25 am

tandfman wrote:Deena Kastor is still listed on the US team roster. Is she really going to Poland this week, having just run the LA Marathon on Sunday?


She tweeted she's still headed to Poland.

Entry-lists here
http://dt9guucc6nuua.cloudfront.net/com ... 33e0b5.pdf
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Re: WXC predictions

Postby Powell » Thu Mar 21, 2013 11:48 pm

Powell wrote:Here's what the course in Bydgoszcz is looking like today :?
http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?v=353 ... =2&theater


Looks like most of the snow has been cleared off the course. These were taken yesterday:
http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid= ... =1&theater

But the forecast for Sunday shows temperatures of -4C (25F) high, -17C (1F) low :? Not exactly perfect conditions for running, or spectating.
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Re: WXC predictions

Postby Conor Dary » Fri Mar 22, 2013 8:02 am

Europe really is getting clobbered. Yorkshire is expecting up to 10 inches of snow this weekend.
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Re: WXC predictions

Postby Jnathletics » Fri Mar 22, 2013 9:39 am

Let's get some info out for those looking to join.

I'm doing the easiest info first, TEAM. Here is some historical data from the past 3 championships. 2011, 2010 (poland), 2009

Women's
Kenya (3 wins) - averaging 14.33 places per meet
Ethiopia (3 2nd's) - averaging 26 places per meet
USA 3rd,3rd,5th - 87
Portugal 12th,5th,3rd - 141
GBR 5th,6th,9th - 150
Mor 11th,4th,6th - 156
Spain 8th,11th,4th - 157
Japan 7th,7th,8th - 158
Aus 10th,8th,7th - 173
South Africa 9th,9th,10th - 189
Bahrain 4th,9th,DNC - 125 (average for 2 meets)
Uganda 6th, DNC, DNC - 148

Men's
Kenya 1st,1st,1st - 20
Ethiopia 2nd,3rd,2nd - 44
Eritrea 4th,2nd,3rd - 62
Uganda 3rd,4th,4th - 67
Spain 8th,6th,7th - 146
Mor 13th, 5th,6th - 147
South Africa 5th,12th,9th - 160
USA 9th,9th,8th - 180
Portugal 12th,13th,12th - 240
GBR 15th,14th,14th - 275
Japan 14th, 16th, 11th - 277

2 meets
Qatar DNC, 11th, 5th - 132
Bahrain 6th, 8th, DNC - 149
AUS 10th, 15th, DNC - 244
France DNC, 10th, 13th - 244

1 meet
Algeria 2011 7th - 147
Norway 2011 11th - 211
Tanzania 2010 7th - 159

Hope this helps, Now the work on the hard part the individuals. :oops:
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Re: WXC predictions

Postby Jnathletics » Sat Mar 23, 2013 12:10 pm

My predictions
Men's
1 - Kenya 26
2 - Ethiopia 32
3 - Uganda 54
8 - USA 181

Individuals
Geoffrey Kirui KEN
Yigrem Demelash ETH
Moses Kipsiro UGA
Abrar Osman ERI
Chris Derrick USA
Thomas Szymkowiak POL
Cameron Levins CAN
Alt - Carles Castillejo ESP

Womens
1- Ethiopia 24
2- Kenyan 26
3- Bahrain 56
5- USA 80

Margaret Muriuki KEN
Meselech Melkamu ETH
Shitaye Eshete BRN
Katarzyna Kowalska POL
Fionnuala Britton IRL
Kim Conley USA
Diana Martin ESP
alt - Dina Phalula RSA
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Re: WXC predictions

Postby Jnathletics » Sat Mar 23, 2013 3:42 pm

Other individuals I gathered info on
Men's
Rabah Aboud ALG - 20th in 2011
Liam Adams AUS - 79th in 2011 & 37th in 2010 (in Poland)
Collis Birmingham AUS- 83rd in 2010 - 28:06 10k best in 2012
Alemu Bekele BRN - 68th in 2011 & 31st in 2010
Mohammed Ahmed CAN 27th in Jr 2010 - 27:36 10k best in 2012
T. Medhin ERI 14th & 2nd in 2010 - 27:16 10k best in 2012
I. Merga ETH 1st in 2011 - 27:14
F. Lilesa ETH 17th & 25th
S. Vernon GBR 57th & 43rd - 10th at Euro's in Dec
K. Yano Jpn was 4th in a X-C race in Febuary
Macharinyang KEN 10th & 9th
K. Zalewski POL 107th - ran a couple X-C races in Feb 4th & 5th had to pick one POL with the weather and course could be a home field advantage.
M. Damiao POR 47th & 68th, won a X-C race in Feb
R. Kajuga RWA 10k best in 2012 27:56
G. Kusuro UGA 13th & 15th
Ben True USA 35th in 2011
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Re: WXC predictions

Postby Jnathletics » Sat Mar 23, 2013 3:58 pm

I believe entries should be complete by USA 6am EST, so hurry and get them in. :wink:
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Re: WXC predictions

Postby Jnathletics » Sat Mar 23, 2013 4:22 pm

Some women's info

Bahrain 5 athletes on start list
Eshete 12th in 2011 & 11th in 2010
K Jasmin 25th in 2011
T. Daba 27th in 2011
G. Shumi 30th

N. Weldu ERI 45th in 2011 - 3rd in X-C race in dec
D. Martin ESP 64th in 2011 - 10th @ Euro's - 4th & 5th in X-C races in Jan
H. Ayalew ETH 11th in 2011 - 9:09 SC PB in 2012
M. Melkamu ETH 4th & 2nd
B. Oljira ETH 10th
S. Duarte FRA 6th @ Euro's
L. Damen GBR 11th @ Euro's
S Twell GBR 23rd in 2010
F. Britton IRL 16th in 2011 - 1st @ Euro's
L. Byrne IRL 8th @ Euro's
H. Niiya JPN 26th & 31st
H. Tanaka JPN 33rd in 2011 - 3rd in X-C race 2/10/13
Y. Abe JPN 4th in X-C race 2/10/13
M. Muriuki KEN 6th 2010 - 1st X-C 2/16/13
E. Chebet KEN 1st 2010 - 4th X-C 2/16/13
I. Cheptai KEN 2nd X-C 2/16/13
S. El Ouali Alami MAR 28th in 2010
K. Kowalska POL 36th in 2010
A. Mierzejewska POL 61st in 2010
C. Kalmer RSA 31st in 2011
D. Phalula RSA 44th & 22nd
J. Chekwel UGA 22nd
J. Achola UGA 32nd
V. Chemos UGA 38th
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Re: WXC predictions

Postby lionelp1 » Sun Mar 24, 2013 1:04 am

lets face it you have to have little or no interest in track and Field not to know that the World xcountry champs was this w/e in Poland and sheer ignorance if American so- called fans did not know that they had an American team entered.
There is tons of stuff on this Flag Waving site about American high school/ college athletes of no real interest to anybody except fans like Aaronk the track wonk, so why the beef about other nations winning and only one continent to win everything; didnt hear about Americans grumbling that they won so many medals at the Swimming stuff in London OG; the Africans didnt do well in the water :lol: .

There is more to our great sport than sprinting, thank god, and if more athletes from Europe trained harder and more often over the country perhaps we might have a few more Rupps.

Always have a look at another well known track site, I suppose.
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Re: WXC predictions

Postby Powell » Sun Mar 24, 2013 2:45 am

The course in Bydgoszcz is looking very tough, and this, combined with the cold weather might make the Africans a bit less dominant than usual. It would still be a major surprise to see a non-African win a medal, but a place or two in the top 10 for the Europeans or Americans might be a possibility...
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Re: WXC predictions

Postby nevetsllim » Sun Mar 24, 2013 3:02 am

I've just doubled the entry number. ;) But JN, the rules are pretty confusing! Perhaps an old-fashioned 1-2-3 game would be easier?

My predictions

Men
Kirui
Merga
Birmingham
Levins
Mehdin
Kipsiro
Mack
Marwa (ALT)

1 ETH 17
2 KEN 30
3 UGA 60
7 USA 160

Women
Ayalew
Chebet
Eshete
Damen
Belete
Britton
Conley
Calvin (ALT)

1 ETH 20
2 KEN 35
3 BAH 50
5 USA 85
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Re: WXC predictions

Postby TR » Sun Mar 24, 2013 5:51 am

American men may have just finished second. Awesome runs by Ben True and Chris Derrick.
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Re: WXC predictions

Postby lionelp1 » Sun Mar 24, 2013 6:01 am

Wave your flags , posters , True and Derrick run very well in 6th and 9th; rather a while since 2 Yanks in the top ten.Good team performance by the USA.
Who said only the Africans can expect to run well in the World xcountry?? Clearly not true as Ben would say.
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Re: WXC predictions

Postby Master Po » Sun Mar 24, 2013 6:03 am

Great races all around. Agree w lionelp1's comments above re the "who cares?" attitude expressed in some quarters. I am a USA person, and of course support and hope for the success of USA athletes. But it's really great to watch these great athletes -- KEN, ETH, et al. -- run WXC. I would like to see it promoted and presented better, but it's a great event in any case. Also it was a treat to be able to watch the live presentation today. Nice commentary by the British presenters.

Great women's race w Chebet overtaking Ayalew at the end for the victory. Gebrehiwet (sp?) of course dominant in the men's Jr. race.

Some performances by the non-dominant nations:

USA Jr women were 6th, with Carrie Verdon being top finisher (20th). Congratulations to GBR women for their bronze medal.

USA Jr men 4th; Matt McClintock top finisher (20th).

USA Sr women 4th; Neely Spence 13th.

USA Sr men -- not sure about team -- a medal, I think. Ben True 6th & Chris Derrick 9th, I think.

Was also interested to see how Collis Birmingham would do, and I think he was 8th.
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Re: WXC predictions

Postby TR » Sun Mar 24, 2013 6:05 am

Japhet Korir won and he wasn't even on the team two weeks ago. :shock:
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