My Bold or Foolish Sprint Predictions!!


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My Bold or Foolish Sprint Predictions!!

Postby Bolan » Wed Mar 06, 2013 5:33 pm

I postulate that the current and next track season will be one of transition to changing of the Guards.
1. This is the last year of Usain Bolt’s dominance in the 100 M: He now has multiple capable opponents and a true threat to his reign by the young Yohan Blake. If bolt is to continue dominate, it now means that he will have to consistently run 9.6 and low 9.7s. 9.8 will no longer guarantee a win when you have four men (TG, YB, JG, AP, NC) who can easily run 9.8 and a plethora of emerging 9.9 guys.
2. The renaissance of the 200 M: If bolt is going to truly cement himself as the greatest 200 M sprinter of all time (I think he currently is) he will need to lower the 200 M to 19.0x or sub 19. I saw a poorly executed 19.28 from Yohan blake and a mediocre fist 100m in the London Olympics yet he was able to close some real estate over 130-160 M. I truly believe that Yohan is emerging to be a consistent sub 19.5 guy who has the potential for a 19.1x and that kind of talent will always be a treat. The biggest Dark horse in this event is Warren Weir. The guy is a 19.8 sprinter with very little experience in the event, he neither has the physique of a true 100M sprinter or the tall and lanky built of a typical 400M guy. I think that with him registering a faster 400M time than bolt and Blake is Ominous warning. I think this season he will cement his place amongst the best. Walter Dix, despite my disdain for his character, I think will improve on his consistency as a 19.5-19.6 athlete; He may even PB at 19.4x. I don’t see his 100M improving that much though, I think he may eventually PB at 9.8. Do not under estimate the emerging talents of Jason Morgan and ashmeade.
For those who have not been following Jamaican High school sprinters watch out for Jazeel Murphy who is now under the tutelage of Glen Mills, I expect him to have a break out Next season.
As for the women: I will not embarrass myself, I think the season will be wide open, Shellyann and Jeter are learning the 200 M event and will be a force to reckon this year. I do believe shelly have a bigger potential for improvement though. We have learned many times over the years never to count out Veronica Campbell-Brown. The one prediction I feel comfortable in making is that we have not seen the last of Janeba Tarmoh, and I proclaimed that her 100M career will supersede Allyson Felix’s 100M career.
The Men’s 400M will be ruled by Caribbean athletes this season. The women 400M is wide open with the Russians, jams and USA.
Jamaica will break the men 4x100 again this year and I think the women may very well break the 4x100 record. USA women 4x100 run may have finally delivered the message to Jamaica.
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Re: My Bold or Foolish Sprint Predictions!!

Postby Marlow » Thu Mar 07, 2013 4:51 am

Bolan wrote:1.This is the last year of Usain Bolt’s dominance in the 100
2. The renaissance of the 200
3. The Men’s 400 will be ruled by Caribbean athletes this season.

1. I NEVER discount Bolt, but I feel that as well.
2. The dike has broken. 19.4s and 19.5s will ensue.
3. The 400 is a dark horse's paradise. Americans will always be in the mix. Caribs look good, but others will creep in too.
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Re: My Bold or Foolish Sprint Predictions!!

Postby Tuariki » Thu Mar 07, 2013 11:29 am

Marlow wrote:2. The dike has broken. 19.4s and 19.5s will ensue.

What dike is that?

There are 7 sub 19.5s in history; 4 for Bolt, 2 for Blake and 1 for MJ who is retired. I don't see an onslaught of 19.4s and 19.5s from Bolt and Blake - I am sure they will likely go faster than that.

There is no evidence of anyone else justifying your predicted onslaught of 19.4s and 19.5s. The fastest 200m in 2012 by someone not named Bolt or Blake was some guy called Weir at 19.84; a time that doesn't really justify unbridled optimism of a slew of sub 19.6s. I am not saying he won't, I hope he does, but the evidence for optimism is pretty limited at the moment.
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Re: My Bold or Foolish Sprint Predictions!!

Postby Tuariki » Thu Mar 07, 2013 11:33 am

Bolan wrote:The biggest Dark horse in this event is Warren Weir. The guy is a 19.8 sprinter with very little experience in the event, he neither has the physique of a true 100M sprinter or the tall and lanky built of a typical 400M guy.


So,which one is not a true 100m sprinter? Bolt or Blake?

So, given the height of Bolt, who are your typical 400m runners that are taller and faster than Bolt?
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Re: My Bold or Foolish Sprint Predictions!!

Postby Tuariki » Thu Mar 07, 2013 11:42 am

Bolan wrote:I postulate that the current and next track season will be one of transition to changing of the Guards.

One usually equates a "changing of the guard" to highlight up and coming youngsters. With AP, JG and TG all being 4 years older than Bolt and NC being 1 year older than Bolt I am not sure why you would believe that these 4 guys are somehow going to all of a sudden start running under 9.6.
YB is of course a definite challenger to Bolt and justifies the predicted possibility of a "changing of the guard". The others? Don't think so.
When the chips are down and there is a championship to be won, no one has yet provided any evidence that they can yet beat Bolt. YB included.
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Re: My Bold or Foolish Sprint Predictions!!

Postby ATK » Fri Mar 08, 2013 2:22 am

Tuariki wrote:
Marlow wrote:2. The dike has broken. 19.4s and 19.5s will ensue.

What dike is that?

There are 7 sub 19.5s in history; 4 for Bolt, 2 for Blake and 1 for MJ who is retired. I don't see an onslaught of 19.4s and 19.5s from Bolt and Blake - I am sure they will likely go faster than that.

There is no evidence of anyone else justifying your predicted onslaught of 19.4s and 19.5s. The fastest 200m in 2012 by someone not named Bolt or Blake was some guy called Weir at 19.84; a time that doesn't really justify unbridled optimism of a slew of sub 19.6s. I am not saying he won't, I hope he does, but the evidence for optimism is pretty limited at the moment.

look back to 2011...add some of break out Jamaicans from 2012, and I think you have a bright future of multiple 19.6's on average between now and after Rio
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Re: My Bold or Foolish Sprint Predictions!!

Postby nicest person ever » Fri Mar 08, 2013 8:56 am

Bolan wrote:Walter Dix, despite my disdain for his character


Could you elaborate more on this. Cuz I always hear people saying they don't like his character, but then they never elaborate or saying their actual reasons for why.

I'm not saying this in an "I don't believe you"/challenging-you type of way btw, I'm genuinely honestly asking. As in, like, it feels like there is a cool-people-club or people who are "in the know" who know certain things about certain athletes, and I'm one of the outsiders or something. I wanna know the insider dirt on these people too lol.

Okay, so tell me what bad stuff he did or why you don't like him (be brutally honest, I won't get mad (I'm not even a fanboy of his or anything so don't even worry about that))
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