world youth 2013 ukraine

[az2004]

here'sthe timetable
http://www.iaaf.org/competitions/iaaf-w ... timetable/

day 1 female final for 3000

day 1 has heats for 1500

day 4 finals for 1500

day 2 heat for 800
day3 semis for 800
day5 finals for 800

if cain wants to do 3k, the heat for 1500 is same day

if she wants 800, 1500 double day1,2,3,4,5 would have 1 race each day

what will alberto do
800,1500 double

3000, 1500 double

3000. 800 double

3000, 1500, 800 triple

i suspect aaronk favors 3000

i like her chances better 800, 1500 double

i think 2013 is a test for 2014 eugene worl youth

[az2004]

for the 2013 world youth in ukraine
Minimum Avg. Mark to make WYC final—4:30.27 for 1,500 (worth 4:50.30 for 1,600, 4:52.0 for one mile)
cain is already qualified

*Mary Cain (Bronxville, N.Y.) 5-30-96 4:16.11’i

the next in line, althougfh usa does not have a 2nd eligible girl yet, and if you think 2 girls are gonna best cain, i want some of that action assuming cain stays healthy


**Alexa Efraimson (Camas, Wa.) 2-20-97 4:23.4’

[az2004]

here;s the 800
Minimum Avg. Mark to Make World Youth Championship Final—2:07.27


Mary Cain (Bronxville, N.Y.) 5-30-96 02:03.0

*Raevyn Rogers (Kinkaid School, Houston, Tx.) 9-7-96 02:05.0

i personally like the top 2 to be the usa champs, although both need the 2:07

the big question is if cain wants do double or not, actually if salazar wants her to double

[az2004]

Minimum Avg, Mark for Eighth Place—9:34.63 (worth 10:16.9 for 3,200)


*Mary Cain (Bronxville, N.Y.) 5-30-96 9:04.51 i

**Bella Burda (Arlington, Lagrangeville, N.Y.) 9-16-97 9:45.6 i

the big question is whether 3000 the same day as a heat of 1500 is the way to go

[az2004]

looking at the 800 youth lead from last year
and eligible for 2013

2:03.15Aníta Hinriksdóttir ISL

2:03.34 Mary Cain

2:05.26 ADureti Edao ETH

2:05.31 AZeyetuna Mohmmed ETH

2:05.50Raevin Rogers USA

2:06.87Chelsea Jarvis GBR

cain lloks to be clearly in the mix for a medal, once salazar starts the 800 work, if he wants to do it, cain should have a good shot

[az2004]

lets do the 1500 who is eligible

4:11.01Mary Cain USA

4:20.41Maki Izumida JPN

4:21.51Shuangshuang Xu CHN

4:21.7 AHellen Ngitoe KEN

4:22.08Aníta Hinriksdóttir ISL

4:22.11Azusa Sumi JPN

cain #1 at 1500 and #2 at 800

aroonk is gonna be estatic

[az2004]

lets do 3000, cain has no time from 2012 so 9:04 is the only time i could use
here are the eligible times

cain 9:04

9:08.88Mercy Chebwogen KEN

9:13.30Maki Izumida JAP

9:20.00Nozomi Yamashita JPN

9:20.52Rie Kawauchi JPN


so measured against world youth eligibles, base on best time from last year

cain is number 1 in 1500 and 3000, and number 2 in 800

i'm sure other talents will emerge as the year progresses, but as of now the kid is in the mix for medals

[aaronk]

az2004 sez "aaronk will be ecstatic"!!!

Well, sorry, no, az2004!!
I'm ecstatic with RESULTS, not possibilities!!

Cain has some good results so far.
But they ALL could be better....some MUCH better!1

Based on what races she runs....and I'm not so sure Salazar has dictatorial powers on those decisions!!....she CAN run the following times THIS year:

800......2:00.0-2:01
1000.....2:38-2:40
1500.....4:05-4:07
1 mile....4:22-4:25
3000.....8:40-8:45
2 mile....9:12-9:20
5000.....15:00-15:20
10000....31:20-32:00

I highly doubt she'll run ALL those distances....or all those times (or within those time parameters).
She seems to have tied herself in to Salazar's program, and Big Al will play it more cautiously with Mary, I believe.

That said, as for WY this year, I say.....run those races where she is MOST CERTAIN to WIN!!!
If ALL THREE (800-1500-3000) are WINNING possibilities, I'd tell her to go for it!!

I don't know how many races (per meet) she ran for her Bronxville team.
Did she ever double??
Or triple....in a meet....even a meet that went over two days??
I have no idea!!

But she's VERY strong, and if she has a sizable lead in entry times, I'd say, go for the TRIPLE!!!

BTW, my suggestion to triple goes AGAINST my favoring her running for RECORDS!!
To triple...or even just double...she'd probably have to pace herself more, and go just for the victory, however slow it might be.
In a single race, she could BLAST it, and make it a Mary Cain time trial!!

[az2004]

looking at the world youth its a 4 day meet

day 1 female final for 3000 this is the toughest race with mercy chewogen a 9:08 girl
day 1 has heats for 1500 #2 girl is 4:20 so cain can double here

day 4 finals for 1500 think this is a mortal lock for cain

day 2 heat for 800 should be able to get thru this heat easily

day3 semis for 800 runsmart get thru the heat to the final, as 1500 final is day 4

day5 finals for 800 this is the tougest race as cain is #2 seed and a long series of races

still i'd do 800 and 1500 not the 3000


1500 thinkn 4:07 wins the race

800 think 2:02 can win it which is what ajee ran

http://www.runnerspace.com/video.php?vi ... ships-2011

[az2004]

aaronk posted some fast times
800......2:00.0-2:01
1000.....2:38-2:40
1500.....4:05-4:07
1 mile....4:22-4:25
3000.....8:40-8:45
2 mile....9:12-9:20
5000.....15:00-15:20
10000....31:20-32:00

i see no reeason to race 5 or 10k

mary cain is a kicker 62.5 outdoor last year

sub 60 for 1500 this year gives her a good shot at the 4:07

i'dbe happy with 2:02 800

the ny diamond league has a 1500/mile

and pre has 800

i'd have her run those as prep for ukraine

des moines wolrd trials are june 20-23

run a round of 800 or 1500 as prep??

[Powell]

Athletes are not allowed to double in distance events at the WYC.

[tandfman]

Athletes are not allowed to double in distance events at the WYC.

It's not just the distance events. 400/800 and 800/1500 are not permitted either. If you run two individual running events, only one of them can be longer than 200.

[az2004]

that's good doubling is not permitted..

i suspect cain is 1500, as salazar is quoted as saying 1500 is here sweet spot

[James Fields]

Powell and tandfman correctly made moot any talk of distance runner Cain doubling or tripling:

IAAF Regulations for 2012 World Youth Championships:

"The maximum number of events that an athlete can compete in is two individual
events plus the Relay. If the two individual events are Track Events, only one of
these two individual races may be longer than 200m."

Source: http://www.iaaf.org/competition/standards/2013

[az2004]

i fully appreciate the info from the knowledgeable track fans

world youth differs from the world juniors

i hope salazar and henwood select the 1500 for cain


he has called it her sweet spot

tough field at millrose tonight, way tougher than we'd expect in ukraine


then focus on outdoor and 800 work to mke 1500 faster??

[az2004]

http://www.nswathletics.org.au/news/ind ... wsID=32864

n yanother 16 year old, llooks like 800 might be her event, another reason for cain to stick with the 1500

[az2004]

looks like 800 is here event 1500 2ndly

http://ayof2013.olympics.com.au/045B4AD ... 5094ACF09F

[az2004]

now that irene eklund has run 23:15, we have to add he to the field of name talents

23:15 makes her 200 time elite for senior, not just world youth

guess her 100 is decent too

[doug5321]

az2004 sez "aaronk will be ecstatic"!!!

Well, sorry, no, az2004!!
I'm ecstatic with RESULTS, not possibilities!!

Cain has some good results so far.
But they ALL could be better....some MUCH better!1

Based on what races she runs....and I'm not so sure Salazar has dictatorial powers on those decisions!!....she CAN run the following times THIS year:

800......2:00.0-2:01
1000.....2:38-2:40
1500.....4:05-4:07
1 mile....4:22-4:25
3000.....8:40-8:45
2 mile....9:12-9:20
5000.....15:00-15:20
10000....31:20-32:00

!!

a 9:12 for 2 miles would put her at 8:32 for 3000, a 9:20 for 2 miles would put her at 8:39 for 3000
i think regina jacobs has the american record at 2 miles at 9:11 in a mixed race.

[doug5321]

looks like eklund has some tough competition today. http://88.131.109.176/folksam/xlgalan13/Startlist.php

[az2004]

didn't regina jacobs get a drug ban? so the status of some of her records is something is iffyfor me

i think getting gold in ukraine is the only thing salazar and cain should care about

and now i'm aware of irene ekelund, her performnce interests me too

[doug5321]

didn't regina jacobs get a drug ban? so the status of some of her records is something is iffyfor me

i think getting gold in ukraine is the only thing salazar and cain should care about

and now i'm aware of irene ekelund, her performnce interests me too

yes jacobs got a drug ban, the point i was making is 9:11 is about 8:31 for 3000 and jacobs a 3:59 for 15000 indoors, 8:31 for 3000 and 14:45 was in her prime when she ran that 2 mile with the aid of male pacers, the 2 mile expectation seemed considerably higher than the others.

and the poster said he thought she could do it this year. i am optimistic about times to a fault, but 9:12 for 2 miles seems too much for this year, the others are difficult but possible.

[az2004]

ekelund has a tough 60 today


dont think anyone in that 60 wants totake her on at 200 though

aronnk has high expectations for cain

5k or 10k i dont see in her short term future

usatf she is entered in mile

looks like 1500 in ukraine

then with the 1500 world junior in eugene, i think salazar knows it's tougher than world youth and has a chance for a longer xc buidup to get ready

back to aronnk best case times

i thought 9:35 2 mile was agressive pack with 9 flat 3k

i still think she needs more 800 speed work to get under the 2:03 time from last year

with 4:28 mile and a solid phase of high quality 800 work, being 4:25 whicg salazar had mentioned sub 4:10 1500 for ukraine is possible

what alberto has done for rupp, farah and centro makes me think he has a long term plan for cain too

world youth 4:08

world junior 4:06

looking ay the usaatf mile field, i think winning is the key

big names are not entered yet, and cain has best entry time

[doug5321]

shelly ann fraser would smoke ekelund, though ekelund is a great prospect and i cant wait to see what she does outdoors and the coming years.

a sprinter not from the USA or jamaica/carribean very unusual, that doesnt happen a lot anymore lemaitre aside, used to be mennea, alan wells, and especially the east german girls.

[aaronk]

One more time.....or maybe 15 more times!!
I do NOT agree with T&FN standard differentials between 1500/mile and 3K/2 mile.
For Cain's 4:11 last year, they attached a 4:31 mile.
For her 9:02 indoors this year, they have her at 9:45!!!

I go by the idea that the 109 meters or 218 meters they have to run to finish the English distances are NOT long enough to slow them down much....or enough where they can't keep up their kick to the end.

Cain's ACTUAL 1500/mile difference was 16.53 in her 4:28, and 16.67 in her 4:32.
Cain's ACTUAL 3K/2 mile difference was 34.17 in her 9:38.68 run.
Cain is such a strong runner.....I've never seen her fade at the end of a race.....I think if she were to hit 3K in 8:50 or even 8:40, she could hold that 34 second differential, and have a two mile time of 9:24 or 9:14.
Ditto with the 1500/mile.
If she runs 4:05 later this year in a mile race, her mile time could be 4:21+.

I understand GH's contention that if they're going for a fast 2 mile, they won't want to run their fastest 3K. They would hold back, and save their energy for the kick.

But what if they go ALL OUT to the 3K point of a two mile race....then continue on as fast as they possibly can??
Would they die (figuratively speaking!!)??
Would they slow to a crawl, and run their last 218 in 40+ secs??
Maybe.
But an athlete of Cain's (or any elite athlete's) caliber SHOULD be able to run closer to that 34 than to that 40!!

That is why I stated that Cain COULD run 8:40 and 9:12, or 8:45 and 9:20!!

I also generally assign a 12-15 second slowdown between a mile and a two mile.
Thus, one who runs a 4:00 mile CAN run 8:24 to 8:30 for two miles.
Someone who can run a 1500 in 4:05 can run 3000 in 8:34 to 8:40!!

Whether Cain does that THIS year remains to be seen, but surely in the next two years!!

[az2004]

maybe some people dont know, ekelund is of mixed heritage

and goteborg hosts the euro indoors

of euros, who is eligible to medal now

being 7 at 200, ekelund to medal is likely

60 is outside chance

[26mi235]

One more time.....or maybe 15 more times!!
I do NOT agree with T&FN standard differentials between 1500/mile and 3K/2 mile.
For Cain's 4:11 last year, they attached a 4:31 mile.
For her 9:02 indoors this year, they have her at 9:45!!!

Take out a calculator.

1500 Time x 1.08 = Mile Time 4:11.0 (251 x 1.08 = 271.1) ~ 4:31.1
3000 Time x 1.08 = Two-Mile Time 9:02.1 (542 x 1.08 = 585.9) ~ 9:45.9

Sorry that you think multiplication is not an applicable approach. You cannot proceed as though the marginal distance will be run at the same speed and you cannot use the closing time. If that were an OK approach, then the equivalent two-mile for a 4:00 mile is an 8:00 two-mile. To say that Cain will not fade (at all) at the end of the race is to assert that her two-mile will be at the same pace as her mile.

The ratio of 1609.433 to 1500 is 1.0729 but the slowing required to run long stretches that out to 1.08. I could go into a bunch of consistent math that shows why this is reasonable, but I am almost certain that it would be lost on you, since you have a 'belief' that you are right. In brief, you will find that Pace(Distance) = Constant + Log(Distance) or Time = Pace x Distance = Distance x (Constant + Log(Distance)). The implications are left as an exercise for the reader.

Put another way, go look at the video of her World Youth 4:11; If, when she crossed the finish line she had to run an additional 109.433 meters, I do not think that you would tell me that she could do that in 17 seconds ... it is unlikely that she could have done it in a lot less than 30 seconds. She would have had to run a bunch of her race a little bit slower to run the additional distance. These functions provide an analytical method that matches the data very well. Instead of fighting it, you should spend your time trying to understand why these things work this way.

[aaronk]

You're right!
My math skills do NOT allow me to understand your formulas.
But it's NOT because I think I'm right all the time!!
(If only!! )
But let me set a couple of things straight.
One, I never said a runner who does a 4:00 mile could run an 8:00 2 mile.
I gave a "slowdown rate" of 12 to 15 secs per mile (or per 1500 in a 3K).
Thus, a 4:00 miler can do, IMO, a two in 8:24 to 8:30, as stated above.
Nowhere near doubling his/her time!!

The only events where I think someone CAN double their shorter distance time would be in the 100-200.
A 10.00 100 should make a 20.00 200 possible.
What the sprinter loses on the curve, he/she gains on the straight, thus allowing him/her to double (or almost double) their 100 time in a 200.
A 9.60 (Bolt) should allow for a 19.20 200 (Bolt has 9.58 and 19.19!!).

The farther the distances, the higher the slowdown rate.
(Also, the slower you are, the higher the rate!!)

Thus the slowdown rate for 5K to 10K is between 30 and 40 secs for each 5K.
A 13:00 5K person could run a 10K in from 27:00 to 27:20.
Look at K Bekele's times.
12:37 and 26:17.
Approximately a 31-32 sec per 5K slowdown!!
Rupp is now 12:58 and 26:48.
A 26 sec slowdown....outside my window.
He obviously (to me, at least) has a lot more potential in the 5K, based on his current 10K time.

Back to Cain's (or anyone's!!!) ability to kick off their fastest 1500 (to 1 mile) or 3000 (to 2 mile) at the SAME pace they were going at the enroute post.

Like I said, I've never seen her totally wasted at the end of a race.....so far!!
She doesn't walk around, her legs like jelly.
She doesn't crumble to the track and lay there inert for 5 minutes!!
(Surprised when Lagat did, after his 2 mile!!)
She jogged a "victory" lap, looking as fresh as when she started.
So I really DO think she could hold to her 16+ sec final 109 meters (or 34 for the 218)......even if she ran much faster than she already has!!

Math formulas are all good and well, but we're talking the abilities of a highly trained, fine tuned athlete here......not a machine attached to scientific formulas!!

[26mi235]

The 'rule of thumb' on the 5000/10,000 is double the 5000 time and add a minute. For other than the best you need to scale that minute by the ratio of athletes 5000/World Class 5000. Thus, 13:00 is 26+1 or 27. 12:40 is 25:20 + minute, etc. 15:00 is 30:00 + (15/13)*60 ~ 30+70 seconds ~ 31:10.

By the way, if you run a linear regression of Pace on log(Distance) you will get a very good fit. If you add dummy variables for non-highly competed distances and a second-order term on log(D) the fit can be as has as R Sq values of 99.99%.

[az2004]

looking at the 800 youth lead from last year
and eligible for 2013

2:03.15Aníta Hinriksdóttir ISL

2:03.34 Mary Cain

2:05.26 ADureti Edao ETH

2:05.31 AZeyetuna Mohmmed ETH

2:05.50Raevin Rogers USA

2:06.87Chelsea Jarvis GBR

cain lloks to be clearly in the mix for a medal, once salazar starts the 800 work, if he wants to do it, cain should have a good shot

th girl from isl ran a 2:04 and reached the finals of the euro indoor in goteborg

went out hard and got a 3rd in her heat

[az2004]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LMNlkQtZ3hU

heres the icelandidic 17 year old girl video of the 800 in euro indoor

she did make the final

did sub 60 400, and pushed the pace

i think she's a factor in ukraine off the race