TBO is Gonna Get You

[mump boy]

Be Afraid

http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/2013/fe ... ilver-gold

[andyjgt]

As Aleksey Vorobyov said,

I'm coming to get you.

I expect someone other than SRR and TBO to win WC gold.

(Antoninakins...!)

[JumboElliott]

I highly doubt Sanya is going to run as conservatively as she did in the Olympic final next year. If she's in shape, I expect her to run under 49.

[eldanielfire]

I highly doubt Sanya is going to run as conservatively as she did in the Olympic final next year. If she's in shape, I expect her to run under 49.

She has done that how often in the past couple of years?

What exactly does TBO stand for anyway?

[eldanielfire]

As Aleksey Vorobyov said,

I'm coming to get you.

I expect someone other than SRR and TBO to win WC gold.

(Antoninakins...!)

Who is a "early season" contender:

Amantle Montsho - world Christine Ohuruogu and SSR I think proved sthey are better when it matters
Antonina Krivoshapka becoming a serial choker, her tactics make a young SSR look the model of restraint. However hse has the potential
Yuliya Gushchina Antonina but done it for longer
ALison Felix - I don't think she will return to the 400m considering how it messed up her 200m and how much more success doubling with the 100m was for her Olympic dream.

Other outsiders who might make an impact:

Francena McCorory (should be getting better)
DeeDee Trotter (A bit late in the day)
Moa Hjelmer (European champion and developing quickly in a country known for getting the most of of their elite athletes)
Alina Lohvynenko (These Ukrainian girls are starting to make a big impact on T&F)
Kseniya Ustalova - The newest 400m Russian beauty. Poor 2012 might motivate her further. Started the indoor well.
Ksenia Zadorina (Anotehr Russian newbie'ish who cna step-up)
Emily Diamond - Britains newest 400m runner, only started last year after beig a 200m runner.
Those Jamaican girls.

[mump boy]

I highly doubt Sanya is going to run as conservatively as she did in the Olympic final next year. If she's in shape, I expect her to run under 49.

She has NEVER run under 49 at a championships i don't know why she would start doing so next year

MAybe with her new race strategy and racing plan TBO will be running under 49 anyway She's certainly worth low 49's

[JumboElliott]

You're right mump, she only ran 49.00.

[bignate88]

I understand the fact that TBO's strategy worked for her in 07 and 08, but did it really take until just recently for her to realize that her race plan wasn't sure-fire?
I do hope this change in race plan will yield some consistently fast times from her this season

[mump boy]

You're right mump,

i usually am

[Jon]

I highly doubt Sanya is going to run as conservatively as she did in the Olympic final next year. If she's in shape, I expect her to run under 49.

She has NEVER run under 49 at a championships

Sanya has never run a season's best (let alone a PB) at a championships.

[bignate88]

I highly doubt Sanya is going to run as conservatively as she did in the Olympic final next year. If she's in shape, I expect her to run under 49.

She has NEVER run under 49 at a championships

Sanya has never run a season's best (let alone a PB) at a championships.

Technically she has. Her 49.00 in the Berlin WC final was a season best until she went on to run her 2 sub 49s at the end of the season

[ATK]

I highly doubt Sanya is going to run as conservatively as she did in the Olympic final next year. If she's in shape, I expect her to run under 49.

She has NEVER run under 49 at a championships i don't know why she would start doing so next year

MAybe with her new race strategy and racing plan TBO will be running under 49 anyway She's certainly worth low 49's

But CO has never run low 49. Why would she start doing so?

[mump boy]

I highly doubt Sanya is going to run as conservatively as she did in the Olympic final next year. If she's in shape, I expect her to run under 49.

She has NEVER run under 49 at a championships i don't know why she would start doing so next year

MAybe with her new race strategy and racing plan TBO will be running under 49 anyway She's certainly worth low 49's

But CO has never run low 49. Why would she start doing so?

Have you bothered to read the premise of this whole thread ?

[ATK]

I highly doubt Sanya is going to run as conservatively as she did in the Olympic final next year. If she's in shape, I expect her to run under 49.

She has NEVER run under 49 at a championships i don't know why she would start doing so next year

MAybe with her new race strategy and racing plan TBO will be running under 49 anyway She's certainly worth low 49's

But CO has never run low 49. Why would she start doing so?

Have you bothered to read the premise of this whole thread ?

If you mean her changing her racing tactics, question still stands as a direct response to your statement on SRR.

[iain]

MAybe with her new race strategy and racing plan TBO will be running under 49 anyway She's certainly worth low 49's

But CO has never run low 49. Why would she start doing so?

Have you bothered to read the premise of this whole thread ? [/quote]
If you mean her changing her racing tactics, question still stands as a direct response to your statement on SRR.[/quote]

Because CO has changed / is changing her tactics and SRR isn't?

[jab2g12]

In all honestly do you believe TBO will beat a healthy SRR, she has surpassed her "choking days" and is oozing with confidence after the OG'S expect big things from her this year such as a new AR, sub 22 and sub 11 again!!!

[CookyMonzta]

I highly doubt Sanya is going to run as conservatively as she did in the Olympic final next year. If she's in shape, I expect her to run under 49.

She has NEVER run under 49 at a championships i don't know why she would start doing so next year

MAybe with her new race strategy and racing plan TBO will be running under 49 anyway She's certainly worth low 49's

Because she has nothing to lose now. She has Olympic gold and bronze, and World Champs gold and silver. Whatever her 200 split was in her 49.28 performance last year, she'll go at least a half-second faster. She'll run as close to 23.0 in the first 200 (if not faster) to bring the AR down where no one can touch it. She can afford to throw caution completely to the wind now, even at the risk of falling off the World Champs medal platform, because she already has a championship there and she has her Olympic gold.

I hope Allyson runs the 400 again this year. Time for Big O. to take down the U.K. NR (49.42). She's got Olympic and World Champs gold, but the NR eludes her.

[CookyMonzta]

As Aleksey Vorobyov said,

I'm coming to get you.

I expect someone other than SRR and TBO to win WC gold.

Only if Sanya and Big O. play truth-or-dare for NRs, and all that running in the heats cramps their all-or-nothing efforts in the final. If they blow their tires and Allyson runs, Allyson will win. If Allyson is not in the race, I think Francena McCorory will be the big surprise.

[eldanielfire]

Lets be honest in this debate. We nether how much better TBO (I still don't know exactly what that means BTW ) will get. I say better because given her injuries and the fact she only tried her new approach without training and got better rapidly. We also don't know what SRRs motivation will be like now she achieved her dream and what distraction her reality TV stuff will be like and how much she will put into the 200m running, the combo of the 400m/200m wreaked Felix in 2011, it's not an easy double to have success in. The only thing I'm fairly sure of is Sanya won't risk dropping a sub-49 in a championship final and blowing up and Ohuruoghu has better times in her.

This of course makes their rivalary exciting, too many new variables to determine who will come out on top this year, to many unknowns to be sure of anything and it could go either way. One thing I will say is I believe the World Champions will be between Christine and Sanya if both are fit and healthy. I don't think Montsho is the big championship calliber of those two.

[ATK]

The only thing I'm fairly sure of is Sanya won't risk dropping a sub-49 in a championship final and blowing up and Ohuruoghu has better times in her.

So your saying Sanya couldn't have run a 48.99 in Berlin?

[t_monk]

The only thing I'm fairly sure of is Sanya won't risk dropping a sub-49 in a championship final and blowing up and Ohuruoghu has better times in her.

Sanya ran a sub 49 race in Berlin. She celebrated and jumped across the line.
So your saying Sanya couldn't have run a 48.99 in Berlin?

She ran 49.00 though....

[ATK]

The only thing I'm fairly sure of is Sanya won't risk dropping a sub-49 in a championship final and blowing up and Ohuruoghu has better times in her.

Sanya ran a sub 49 race in Berlin. She celebrated and jumped across the line.
So your saying Sanya couldn't have run a 48.99 in Berlin?

She ran 49.00 though....

Point is she clearly ran a sub 49 second RACE.

eldanielfile is giving the impression that she would die and risk losing if she ran a 48s race because of her pre 2009 tactics.

Its like Bolt in Beijing, or Mo in Edmonton...Yea their times are set in stone, but everyone knows their races were worth more if they didn't celebrate or get hurt respectively...

[LopenUupunut]

TBO (I still don't know exactly what that means BTW )

It's short for The Big O.

[eldanielfire]

The only thing I'm fairly sure of is Sanya won't risk dropping a sub-49 in a championship final and blowing up and Ohuruoghu has better times in her.

So your saying Sanya couldn't have run a 48.99 in Berlin?

It's about risk, not ability though. It's not a case of "she could if she wants too", it's a case of "If she tries it she might blow up and lose to gain absolutely nothing of importance". She isn't likley to run a world record at the moment so times are irrevelant in Championships, it's all about getting gold.

[Speedster]

A passionate debate as always from two athletes who have been controversial in the success and failure.

The 400m is still a sprint event and if Christine can drop her 100/200m PBs this season, significantly, I think going out harder might bring her more success. I read that she is racing more this year which means she could test out a new race plan in Diamond League races with increased pressure and competition.

That said, SRR still has the edge as her speed is that much better and she now has the Olympic Gold to complete her set of medals. I'd love to see her just run the 200m so see what's she is capable of but I think she'll double again.

[lionelp1]

I highly doubt Sanya is going to run as conservatively as she did in the Olympic final next year. If she's in shape, I expect her to run under 49.

She has NEVER run under 49 at a championships i don't know why she would start doing so next year

MAybe with her new race strategy and racing plan TBO will be running under 49 anyway She's certainly worth low 49's

What the heck is the meaning of "she's certainly worth low 49s", nonsensical phrase.TBO aint a piece of pottery or a painting!!
In track and field you have achieved or you have not achieved a specific time , espececially after 6 years at the top with OG Gold and Silver... being "worth" some time is a meaningless concept.... Does Mump think she WILL run under 49 or WILL run low 49s, if so, for goodness sake say so... but then sitting on the fence with "can" or "may" or "is capable of" is so much easier than a firm prediction

[eldanielfire]

A passionate debate as always from two athletes who have been controversial in the success and failure.

The 400m is still a sprint event and if Christine can drop her 100/200m PBs this season, significantly, I think going out harder might bring her more success. I read that she is racing more this year which means she could test out a new race plan in Diamond League races with increased pressure and competition.

That said, SRR still has the edge as her speed is that much better and she now has the Olympic Gold to complete her set of medals. I'd love to see her just run the 200m so see what's she is capable of but I think she'll double again.

Of course the differences in their style is interesting, SSR is more speed dependent and it's possible her speed will be on the decline in the next few years, TBO is more an even paced runner with tons of Speed endurance. When they hit their 30's I would expect Christine to be able to consistently run the 400m faster than Sanya regardless, it's just a case of when will Richards-Ross speed start declining enough? Will it be soon or in a couple of years.

[26mi235]

For someone whose speed might decline in the next few years, the recent trend is rather different.

[ATK]

TBO is more an even paced

Hardly.

[CookyMonzta]

For someone whose speed might decline in the next few years, the recent trend is rather different.

Sanya could conceivably maintain her top level in the 400 for the rest of this decade. Highly likely that she'll lose her mojo in the 100 and 200 before age starts to cramp her ability to break 50.00...

...That is, assuming you use Jarmila Kratochvílová as a benchmark to determine Sanya's longevity in the 400. Kratochvílová ran 47.99/1:53.28 at age 32, in a year (1983) when she could only muster 22.40.

There might come a point where Sanya might have trouble breaking 22.50, but a 23.7 opening split in the 400 will become even more comfortable for her. If I'm not mistaken, Jearl Miles-Clark never broke 23.00 in the 200, but her 400 PR was 49.40 (1997). She was almost 31 then, and she ran 49.98 a month short of her 33rd birthday. Sanya will be in good shape for the rest of this decade.

What is Big O's 200 PR? Assuming she has yet to break 22.80, getting even closer to 49.00 (or at least the U.K. NR) could be a much bigger burden for her with regard to the second-half of her race.

[Gabriella]

I always preferred TBOs approach in 2008 when she ran 100s and 200s and came into Beijing as a bit of an enigma. Firstly it means she's focused and practiced on speed and secondly it leaves the other women guessing. When she competes on the circuit she shows her hand and the other women know they can beat her. But when she doesn't run 400s they will be wondering about her.

SRR has had a long time at the top of elite 400m running going back to 2004 and that is unusual at that distance. She has to be in the wane soon but she probably still has a couple of years at the top. In the last 2 Olympics and 3 world champs TBO has 2 golds and a silver and SRR has 2 golds and a bronze so they have dominated the big meets between them.

You would think that being in Moscow one of the Russian women has to be a potential gold medalist but there will also be the defending champ in Montsho, a more relaxed SRR with no demons and a focused TBO in what could be her last season.

[mump boy]

What is Big O's 200 PR? Assuming she has yet to break 22.80, getting even closer to 49.00 (or at least the U.K. NR) could be a much bigger burden for her with regard to the second-half of her race.

It's 22.85

She's ran 60m and 200m at uk trials this weekend in 7.58 (pb 7.39) and 23.58 which is faster than she's run outdoors since 2009 when she ran then quite frequently early season

[peach77]

I always preferred TBOs approach in 2008 when she ran 100s and 200s and came into Beijing as a bit of an enigma. Firstly it means she's focused and practiced on speed and secondly it leaves the other women guessing. When she competes on the circuit she shows her hand and the other women know they can beat her. But when she doesn't run 400s they will be wondering about her.

But it doesn't really make any difference what the women think or know...because when it comes to the Championships, she is always entirely ready. She was an enigma back in 08, sure, but as we all seem to bang on about every time a Championships rolls around, it is only a complete fool who writes off The Big O at a Games- and I really don't think many of the women will ever do that again, no matter what happens on the circuit...

[ATK]

But it doesn't really make any difference what the women think or know...because when it comes to the Championships, she is always entirely ready. She was an enigma back in 08, sure, but as we all seem to bang on about every time a Championships rolls around, it is only a complete fool who writes off The Big O at a Games- and I really don't think many of the women will ever do that again, no matter what happens on the circuit...

I think the idea that she is always a Championship performer is a little over hyped. Yes she usually runs her best at championships, but she hasn't always performed well.

2007, 2008, and 2012 were her great years
2004, 2005, 2009, and 2011 were not...

[mump boy]

But it doesn't really make any difference what the women think or know...because when it comes to the Championships, she is always entirely ready. She was an enigma back in 08, sure, but as we all seem to bang on about every time a Championships rolls around, it is only a complete fool who writes off The Big O at a Games- and I really don't think many of the women will ever do that again, no matter what happens on the circuit...

I think the idea that she is always a Championship performer is a little over hyped. Yes she usually runs her best at championships, but she hasn't always performed well.

2007, 2008, and 2012 were her great years
2004, 2005, 2009, and 2011 were not...

She has run a pb or SB at every championships she has ever run at apart from 11 when she was DQ'd

In 04, at 20, she ran 50.50 at the OG, in 05 her main aim was the Euro under 23, she came 2nd by .01 to Olga Zaytzeva in a SB, In 06 she won the CWG in a PB of 50.28 in 09 she was injured but ran 50.22 for 5th.

You don't always have to wins a medal to perform well !!