az2004 wrote:it'll be a good learning experience for cain
Having watched her recent 2-mile, I think she's very good at sitting in a fast pack and kicking at the end. If her legs feel fresh (which I'm having a hard time imagining they could) I figure she can go low-4:30s again. 4:29 would be other-worldly. Anything sub-4:40 would still be PHENOMENAL!
Sarah Bowman Brown, New Balance Mary Cain, unattached • Emma Coburn, University of Colorado Abbey D'Agostino, Dartmouth College Delilah DiCrescenzo, unattached Kate Grace, Oiselle/NJ-NY TC Jordan Hasay, University of Oregon Ashley Higginson, Saucony Emily Infeld, Nike Oregon TC • Sheila Reid, Nike (Canada) • Nicole Sifuentes, Saucony (Canada) • Hilary Stellingwerff, New Balance (Canada) Renee Tomlin, Nike Sara Vaughn, Bowerman AC
az2004 wrote:this may well be the toughest race cain will face so far, tougher thn the 4:32 mile field should be a good learning experience for her
Anyone else think she's running too many hard races in a very brief span?
Well, the only correct answer for me is, "I don't know." But I'll add these thoughts -- I have come to have a very high regard for Salazar as a coach. He is working very well, over long periods of time, with a range of elite athletes who are developing very very well and who seem to arrive at their starting lines ready to go. Cain is different -- but, well, they all are. Salazar doesn't seem to have a one size fits all approach. So -- long statement that means: I trust what he's doing, based on results. Cain seems OK. I will be interested to know what she does after this week. The calendar sort of looks like her indoor season is over after this week, but I suppose she could run something else, e.g., in the high school indoor national in a few weeks.
So, based on how Cain seems, and how Salazar is doing with others, I'm not concerned. Very interested, but not concerned.
Salazar says she's in 4:25 shape...or will be by the 16th. IF she is, she could WIN this baby!! How many indoor (or outdoor, for that matter!!) 4:25 miles have there been in recent years?? A 4:25 means she'd pass 1500 in about 4:08, a 3 second improvement on her PR.
Whatever the case, I think she WILL better her indoor bests of the 2nd. Meaning...she will have set SIX indoor HSR's this year!! )Don't count the oversize race!!)
how 'long' has Salazar assumed coaching of Cain ... How many times has he been present for a workout. I'm struggling here with just how much AS can justifiably be given credit for her performances now.
Occupation: Professional Athlete / Coach / Strength Trainer for Runners
1994-2002: Worked for Sportswide Ltd. (Sportswide operates 5-6 fitness centers in the Wellington region.)
1994: Worked in Sportswide Quality Inn Fitness Centre as a fitness consultant.
1995: Manager of the AMP Fitness Centre for Sportswide in New Zealand.
1997: Manager of The BNZ Fitness Centre for Sportswide in New Zealand.
1999-2002: Personal Trainer/Massage Therapist/Running Coach at the Sportswide-owned Majestic Club, one of the most expensive and exclusive fitness centres in New Zealand.
2002: Worked on a cruise ship (Sea Princess and Star Princess) for a nine-month contract as a Fitness Instructor. We cruised The Caribbean, Mexican Riviera, and Alaska. I taught Spinning which I loved 5 days per week. This kept me fit for my forthcoming Olympic preparation. I also taught Pilates (mat) and provided personal training services to clients. I gave seminars on the Zone Diet, Fitness for the Elderly, and Detox for weight loss and provided massage therapy for clients as needed.
2003: Worked in Washington DC as a Personal Trainer/Coach at a Personal Training Studio for 3 months before training full-time for the Athens Olympics.
2005 and Currently: Working in New York as a Coach/Strength trainer for runners
2005: Running for NYAC New York Athletic Club
2008: Assistant Track Coach at Trevor Day Private School in New York.
Major Sporting Achievements
New Zealand Representations
1994-1998: (5x) Chiba International Relay in Japan
1994: Oceania Games in NZ 1,500m (Won gold medal)
1995: Hong Kong street mile (1st place)
1996: Malaysian Half marathon (7th place)
1999-2000: 10km road race in Boulder, Colorado (13th place)
2001: World Athletic Championships, Edmonton, Canada (25th in the 10,000m)
2002: Commonwealth Games, Manchester, England (10th in the 10,000m)
2004: Stanford, California. Ran 27mins 45secs to qualify for 10,000m race in the Athens Olympics. This is the 3rd fastest time ever by a kiwi.
2004: OLYMPIC GAMES IN ATHENS, 10,000M FINALS
2005: New York City Marathon 13th place 2.15.05.
2008: New York City Marathon 21st Place 2.21.55
2005, 2006 and 2008 New York Runner of the Year (30-39 age group).
Also have been selected for many world cross country championships but did not compete in these events as they were not my focus.
NZ Championship Titles
1994: NZ Half Marathon Champion
1997: NZ 3000m Track Champion
1998: NZ Road Running Champion
2001: NZ 10,000m track Champion (Ran the 4th fastest time in NZ history and the fastest time in NZ for the past 30 years.)
So, the three-time ING New York City Marathon champion enlisted the help of another Olympian, New Zealander John Henwood, who works as a coach and massage therapist in New York City, to work with Cain. Henwood acts as Cain's coach-in-residence, supervising her workouts and reporting back to Salazar. Cain said that the set-up has worked very well for her.
az2004 wrote:i'm closer to 4:30 with dutra5 for cain
i think reid wins, but cain is on her home track and said 4:32 had some mistake
avoid those errors, and the4:30 is my currentlimit
cain needs some 800 based speed work, so 62.5 not 64 can be her kick
aaronk,i think we're both cain fans
you're a super fan
The reason I go with a possible 4:25 is NOT because of what she's run THIS season, but what she ran last summer at the WJC!
I know, and understand, how T&FN looks at 1500 to one mile differentials, or 3K to 2 miles. But I have my own personal theorem on this, and I'm sticking to it.
That is, that the 109.1 meters between a 1500 and mile, or the 218 meters between a 3K and a two mile....is NOT that long a distance that a GREAT runner....and Mary Cain IS NOW a GREAT runner.......a GREAT runner can stay on the SAME PACE she was on prior to the shorter distance, for the remaining 109 or 218!!
In other words, I personally believe that Cain's 4:11.01 was worth a 4:28...not the 4:31 T&FN ascribed to it!!
Ditto with the two mile. I've seen where she's been ascribed an 8:55 3000 for her 9:38 two mile, NOT the ACTUAL 9:04.51 she was timed at.
She GOT a REAL 3K time!! She doesn't need an ESTIMATED time!!
So, if I'm correct...and I KNOW most, if not everyone DISagrees with me...if she were to run 4:25, she would be improving her "mile" time by just THREE seconds.....from the "4:28" from last summer....to 4:25.....NOT the SEVEN seconds most would say she'd have to improve!!!
She's a damn STRONG runner!! I mean her stride, her arm pumping, the power and determination she has.....that only the very best have!! (It's what propelled Jenny Simpson to her WC win, or Galen Rupp to his Silver in the OG!!)
But, having said all that, I'd be VERY happy if she improved her times (1500 and the mile) by just one-tenth of a seond each!! That would STILL give her SIX HSR's this indoor season!!
P.S. Keep in mind Cain had a faster final 109.1 meters in her 4:32 than both Bowman and Sifuentes...16.67 as against their 16.80 and 16.90.
In her two mile, she finished faster than Dibaba!!
By your logic, she can run a 8:50 two mile. The proportional distance is 7+% but it takes almost 8% more time -- not because the last 109.344 meters are slower, but because another 109m inthe slower middle are at least as slow as the slowest part of her race. As an economist might put it, the marginal speed is slower than the average speed at essentially all distances from the 100m up (take out the start up and reaction time from the 10 to get the speed) or at least from the 200.
In fact, for men, approximately from the 400 on up to almost 3000m, the marginal speed is 15 miles an hour, in that the next 400 increment is a minute slower, although on the low end the speed is a bit higher and on the high end it is lower. 43, 1:41 (58) 3:42 (60.5), 4:41(?) (60-). This marginal speed is lower despite the fairly high speed of the 400 (20mph).
You actually get a pretty good fit with the function Pace = constant x Log(distance).
And, it is completely irrelevant how fast the finish is. To think that it is, is to fundamentally misunderstand the relationships involved.
there are a couple factors in the 4:32 race. taking the SAT for 4 hours can lead to mental fatigue, which could have been the reason for the tactical error in the race itself. drifting wide and losing contact early with the leaders..
in listening to the john henwood interview, he talks about her 200 meter closing speed
if she can correct the 4:32 mistakes, sit closer to the pacers early, sit directly behind reid and use her kick, i still think reid will win, but cain can get a better time
hence a possible 4:30 in a perfect race
reid from her double ncaa wins of 2 years ago, has show the gear shift needed to win
salazar said 1500/mile is her sweet spot, she's better at it than 3k/2 mile
oddly john henwood said by the time cain is in her early 20s, she might be betterat 5k
salazar will have a few years to build fittness, and if we look at rupp and farah building strength happens over time, so projecting cain eventual distance is tough