T&FN Moscow Predictions

[mump boy]

I know it's WAY too early but there are some very odd picks here

http://www.trackandfieldnews.com/index. ... -only/1485

[eldanielfire]

It is waaay too early. Very US centric list as well. No Dai Green or Jack Greene. Tyson Gay not in the medals? Strangely no Rupp for a distance medal? I'm not sure Demus will beat Natalya Antyukh in the hurdles

I like Antonina Krivoshapka but she never performs at championships, like most Russian 400m runners, otherwise they are loaded, but Christine Ohuruoghu proved at the Olympics her championship quality and how she can run a 49 second lap when required in a big race. Jelimo over Savinova and Seymenya? Seymenya may be the fastest by some way and Savinova is proven to be a great championship performer with absolutely flawless judgement of pacing and position and the best last 80m in the world.

Jenn Shur over Yelena Isinbaeva? Not when issy isn't injured. I expect another Isinbayeva world record some time this year.


However one big call I agree with is Savitskaya for a Heptathlon medal. However I think the 7 event medal competition will be MASSIVE and veyr open. I'm expecting 2nd/3rd to maybe 6th to be quite close.

[athleticshushmail]

I don't think Jason Young will qualify for the Moscow. Mike Roger's personal best is 9.85 which won't be enough for a medal. Chepseba will run faster than Centrowitz. The Kenyans will sweep the steeple, and they will take gold in the marathon.Tony Mcquay is not ready to beat a Borlee yet, but the 400 is pretty open for silver and bronze. All in all, though, I thought it was a good list.

[Pego]

What woke me up was no medal predicted for Špotáková. I'd take that bet .

[Marlow]

I know it's WAY too early but there are some very odd picks here

Not so much odd as 'wishful thinking' on some people's parts. The one thing we know for certain is that about 40% of those people will NOT medal.

[iain]

TBH I'm not sure much thought has gone into this list

[eldanielfire]

What woke me up was no medal predicted for Špotáková. I'd take that bet .

You're on!

I know she is taking time off this year for a baby

[LopenUupunut]

There are certainly some interesting picks but on the whole, I thought they were saner than T&FN's early predictions normally are. Not sure I see Heidler winning though; Lysenko is hard enough to beat when she doesn't have home advantage, and Włodarczyk seemed to be getting back in top shape too...

No Kozmus?

[Pego]

What woke me up was no medal predicted for Špotáková. I'd take that bet .

You're on!

I know she is taking time off this year for a baby

That might do it .

[gh]

It is waaay too early. Very US centric list as well. No Dai Green or Jack Greene. ....

Yes, amazing what happens when you let a Brit (truly!) do the picks.

[Marlow]

It is waaay too early. Very US centric list as well. No Dai Green or Jack Greene. ....

Yes, amazing what happens when you let a Brit (truly!) do the picks.

Whaddya expect?!
Limeys always have a foreboding sense of doom of their own chances, and they detest the other Euro-types, so they automatically go with Yanks.

[mump boy]

Don't get me wrong i know this is just a bit of fun and if i did them i'm sure there would be some equally individual choices but there are some predictions here that i see absolutely no evidence for at all.

i can't think of 1 thing that points to Mike Rodgers medalling !!

I'm not saying Mo will do another double but i can't see any evidence that he won't either and none that Gebremeskel or Jaylan necessarily be the ones to do it

400h looks like names picked out of a hat,

Who even knows who'll get selected for KEN marathon (or what the selection policy will be)

i don't think Adam Gemilli is enough to compensate for GBR's increasingly elderly sprinters

Surely TBO has to be a medal favourite

The rest i can live with

[Tuariki]

The predictions seem to be as sane and as reasonable as any other list someone else might come up with.

[AS]

The Rodgers pick does seem very odd. Surely Ryan Bailey is a stronger contender?

But given 4 Jamaicans in both men's sprints, I'm putting my money on double sweeps.

I'm stunned by the lack of Rupp (and Mary Cain )

[GDAWG]

I see that an exact repeat of the Women's 100 Meter Hurdles from the Olympics is predicted. A bronze for Kellie Wells in Moscow would be redemption for Daegu.

[John G]

I'm not saying Mo will do another double but i can't see any evidence that he won't either and none that Gebremeskel or Jaylan necessarily be the ones to do it

Just watch the last 500m of the London 5k again. Gebremeskel made a horrible mess of it (watch his reaction at the end). He was physically as good as Mo on the day. Given their ages and number of years at the top you'd expect Gebr to be on a steeper improvement curve. Add in the likelihood that motivation will be a challenge for Mo this year and I think this is a very sensible pick.

Going for Jeylan on the other hand is harder to justify - he's had one truly great race in all his life and even then, Mo's tactical mistake may have been the deciding factor.

I'd go for Rupp to at least get silver.

[John G]

I bet Bolt isn't even there. His injury problems will just get worse and motivation will be a problem (especially when Blake runs even faster).

[az2004]

how blake runs early might well be the key factor in what bolt does , we have the jamaican trials in june so bolt winter training should tell us where he is

but thinking back to berlin after beijing, bolt had a good berlin

but bolt is getting older

[eldanielfire]

Bolt is 26 and will be 29 in Rio. I think its safe to say he isn't close to the downward slope yet. However can Blake keep his improvements going at the rate he has and avoid injury?

[ATK]

Bolt is 26 and will be 29 in Rio. I think its safe to say he isn't close to the downward slope yet. However can Blake keep his improvements going at the rate he has and avoid injury?

But I wouldn't put Bolt on the incline either.

[John G]

Bolt is 26 and will be 29 in Rio. I think its safe to say he isn't close to the downward slope yet. However can Blake keep his improvements going at the rate he has and avoid injury?

Of course you're right - 26 is very young and you only need to look at people like Fredericks and Christie to see what can be done in the late 20s / early 30s. However, at the risk of re-hashing an old topic, personally I think it is more about how many years you have been training and competing at a high level and how many injuries you have suffered.

Hope I'm totally wrong!!

[Pego]

Bolt is 26 and will be 29 in Rio. I think its safe to say he isn't close to the downward slope yet. However can Blake keep his improvements going at the rate he has and avoid injury?

Of course you're right - 26 is very young and you only need to look at people like Fredericks and Christie to see what can be done in the late 20s / early 30s. However, at the risk of re-hashing an old topic, personally I think it is more about how many years you have been training and competing at a high level and how many injuries you have suffered.

Hope I'm totally wrong!!

I think you are right on.

[Marlow]

Of course you're right - 26 is very young and you only need to look at people like Fredericks and Christie to see what can be done in the late 20s / early 30s. However, at the risk of re-hashing an old topic, personally I think it is more about how many years you have been training and competing at a high level and how many injuries you have suffered. Hope I'm totally wrong!!

I think you are right on.

Despite his enormous talent, Bolt has had to put in a TON of work to get as ridiculously fast as he has been. At some point the body just can't respond any more. Christie/Fredericks were beautiful exceptions, but I do think there's a price to pay for UB's achievements. But, as I have noted in the past, I refuse to be surprised by ANYTHING he does any more, so I'm not even writing off the possibility of a new round of records!!

[eldanielfire]

Bolt is 26 and will be 29 in Rio. I think its safe to say he isn't close to the downward slope yet. However can Blake keep his improvements going at the rate he has and avoid injury?

Of course you're right - 26 is very young and you only need to look at people like Fredericks and Christie to see what can be done in the late 20s / early 30s. However, at the risk of re-hashing an old topic, personally I think it is more about how many years you have been training and competing at a high level and how many injuries you have suffered.

Hope I'm totally wrong!!

Fair enough but Bolt has been taking it easy these past few years due to his back and Jamaicans have a good record of lengthy careers these days.

Also, lets not forget when has Bolt really put his all into races? Unlike most before him he's rarely put his all into any race ever whihc may extend his career.

[lonewolf]

I am skeptical that Bolt will improve his 100 and 200 times. To be the undisputed all around sprint GOAT, he should overcome his admitted aversion to discomfort in training and proceed directly to obliterate the 400 record. That accomplished, he can concentrate on the LJ record for which, I think, he is uniquely qualifed by physique and speed to break.

[eldanielfire]

I am skeptical that Bolt will improve his 100 and 200 times. To be the undisputed all around sprint GOAT, he should overcome his admitted aversion to discomfort in training and proceed directly to obliterate the 400 record. That accomplished, he can concentrate on the LJ record for which, I think, he is uniquely qualifed by physique and speed to break.

He said after the olympics he felt he could have won the 200m in a WR but didn't think it was worth the strain on his back. He breezed the 100m and was close enough to suggest a healthy Bolt has more another 9.5x time in him.

[lonewolf]

[He said after the olympics he felt he could have won the 200m in a WR but didn't think it was worth the strain on his back. He breezed the 100m and was close enough to suggest a healthy Bolt has more another 9.5x time in him.

Ok. Having never been in a comparable situation, I don't personally know how it would "feel" but my theoretical philosophy is: If you "feel" like you could break a WR, ya might oughta go ahead and do it. Opportunity doesn't come along every day and you may not be ready on that day.

[eldanielfire]

[He said after the olympics he felt he could have won the 200m in a WR but didn't think it was worth the strain on his back. He breezed the 100m and was close enough to suggest a healthy Bolt has more another 9.5x time in him.

Ok. Having never been in a comparable situation, I don't personally know how it would "feel" but my theoretical philosophy is: If you "feel" like you could break a WR, ya might oughta go ahead and do it. Opportunity doesn't come along every day and you may not be ready on that day.

To make it clear, Bolt specifically said that he would do more damage to his delicate back if he did and after 2 bad seasons wanted to be healthy for the next season where he could perform better while fully fit unlike London.

[26mi235]

Having never been in a comparable situation, I don't personally know how it would "feel" but my theoretical philosophy is: If you "feel" like you could break a WR, ya might oughta go ahead and do it. Opportunity doesn't come along every day and you may not be ready on that day.

Well it is his record, so not so much to gain.

[ZELLGADISS]

Mike Rodgers 3rd?umm sounds a joke

Gay and Gatlin ae clearly better and i think that Kemar Bailey could to get place this year in trials(i have many doubts for Asafa)
Kemar is sub 9.9 in 2013 if he is healthy

[Fortius19]

It is waaay too early. Very US centric list as well. No Dai Green or Jack Greene. ....

Yes, amazing what happens when you let a Brit (truly!) do the picks.

Excluding relays, 8 medals for US women and 10 for US men. Doesn't sound like a lot to me.

How are relays even counted? As one medal, or six??

[gh]

Relays count as 1 medal in normal charting.