preview for boston 2 mile [2 HSRs for Cain]


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preview for boston 2 mile [2 HSRs for Cain]

Postby az2004 » Fri Feb 01, 2013 9:12 am

here;s the seattle 3 k complte

http://www.flotrack.org/coverage/250136 ... ool-Record

cain sits 4-5 on the inside for 90% of race

them simply kicks, very easy tactical race, unlike 4:32 where she drifted at times

thinking of boston where the quality of the field is superior to seattle

TIRUNESH DIBABA ETH
ASHLEY HIGGINSON USA
SARAH BROWN USA
BRENDA MARTINEZ USA
SHEILA REID CAN
MARY CAIN USA
NICOLE SIFUENTES CAN
GOTYTOM GEBRESLASE ETH
TARA ERDMANN USA
MARDREA HYMAN


she can sit near the tail of the pack, and the pace will be superior to seattle, and still unleash her kick

i dont think alberto will make this brain surgery


found a better video and audio of the race from a higher angle

http://www.runnerspace.com/video.php?vi ... or-Preview

add in the 4:32 mile to have a set of races

http://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=mar ... FORM=VIRE7
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Re: preview for boston 2 mile

Postby az2004 » Fri Feb 01, 2013 10:04 am

http://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=mar ... FORM=VIRE5

longish interview afer race, many subjects, having fun, anticipating race with t dibaba

still lives in bronxville and goes to bronxville

and here;s the 2012 4:39 she ran at penn with the 62.5 anchor kick
oddly ajee wilson ended 4th in 4:52, a nice hs time
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Re: preview for boston 2 mile

Postby az2004 » Fri Feb 01, 2013 11:10 am

and her 4:11 from world youth in barcelona

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bizYesRYzN4

winner goes 4:04 and cain is hanging on, interestingtosee with salazar how close cain is to 4:05 range

not in this race
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Re: preview for boston 2 mile

Postby az2004 » Fri Feb 01, 2013 11:35 am

here;s the 9:54 cuffe ran

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=05yqWMYIdnQ

interesting cuffe anchor was a 73, while cain can go mid 60 range, cain has a huge edge with her kick as she can nail 8 seconds or so

im smelling a good chance to get the 2 mile mark
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Re: preview for boston 2 mile

Postby az2004 » Fri Feb 01, 2013 11:47 am

from cain frosh year, she gets nailled last lap by a soph who will be doing hs girls mile in boston

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=af_hwiYsUOg

2011 and 2013 frosh and soph

so one poor race as a frosh and now 4:17 1500 for frosh record in ny state meet and nailing asling cuffe who would gp on to get the hs 2 mile record

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LcAVulR-qDU

another view of same race..

http://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=mar ... FORM=VIRE1

in last lap cain put a good 10 meters on aislling cuffe, and ths is the same cuffe who will set a hs 2 mile record 9:54

ok, i;ve set the table

what can cain do tomorrow
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Re: preview for boston 2 mile

Postby 26mi235 » Fri Feb 01, 2013 12:10 pm

az2004 wrote:here;s the 9:54 cuffe ran

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=05yqWMYIdnQ

interesting cuffe anchor was a 73, while cain can go mid 60 range, cain has a huge edge with her kick as she can nail 8 seconds or so

im smelling a good chance to get the 2 mile mark


Cuffe ran very even pace in that race, which is the optimal strategy for minimizing time. If Cain runs even pace to her maximum effort, she is not going to suddenly go 8 seconds faster on her last lap. At that point she was running for time, not racing for place, where she would have a faster finish (but slower overall time). [Cuffee's last 440 yards was 73.41, about 73.0 for 400m]
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Re: preview for boston 2 mile

Postby aaronk » Fri Feb 01, 2013 12:17 pm

From the looks of the lineup, it'll be the two Africans up front, with Dibaba almost certainly winning.
She always runs FAST at Boston, whether the 3K/2 mile or the 5K, so I'm predicting she'll continue that history!!

Maybe mid-8:20's, with 8:35 being the slowest I'd predict for Dibaba.
Of the non-Africans, it looks like a race between Bowman (Brown), maybe Reid, Martinez, Erdmann.....and Cain!!

I've seen almost ALL her track races, from frosh year on up to now (on video!), and she's almost always hung back a bit, trying to stay out of trouble (falling, tripping, getting boxed)...and then kicking like it's nobody's business (at least for a high school kid!!!).

So I'll go out on a limb, and say Cain's WORST race (barring a broken leg, falling, and remaining on the track for 20 seconds!!) will be in the 8:55 range for 3K, and 9:30 for 2 miles.

Her BEST race COULD be not THAT far behind Dibaba......maybe the 100 meters she mentioned in that long interview!!

If Big D runs that 8:25, and Mary's within 100 meters of her, then Cain's time would be 8:40-8:42 for 3K, and about 9:15-9:17 for the two mile

Either way....or somewhere in between, she SMASHES both HSR's by maybe DOZENS of seconds!!

She is THIS close to being SERIOUS national class!!
And I mean AMERICAN national class....not high school!!
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Re: preview for boston 2 mile

Postby nevetsllim » Fri Feb 01, 2013 1:46 pm

Does anyone else think it's a bit strange Dibaba's racing indoors over two miles when she's just announced she'll make her marathon debut in April? Seems a bit unconventional.
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Re: preview for boston 2 mile

Postby doug5321 » Fri Feb 01, 2013 2:13 pm

nevetsllim wrote:Does anyone else think it's a bit strange Dibaba's racing indoors over two miles when she's just announced she'll make her marathon debut in April? Seems a bit unconventional.



she said even after running marathons, she will continue to compete in track.

i think its a good idea to continue running track races to keep the speed high.

i have a feeling the ethiopian federation would NOT let t. dibaba and defar abandon track even if they wanted, at least until ethiopia comes up with runners at 5/10000 who are just as good, they have many good runners, but those 2 are far and away ethiopias best.

also racing is fun, the conventional thing to do in at least most american runners minds now is just train as much as possible and race as little as possible, ideally 2 marathons a year maybe a half marathon, does not seem as fun as racing frequently mixing it up at other distances.

with t. dibaba, and defar world records will be the eventual goal even at the marathon meaning better than 2:15.25, so the speed will have to remain very high.
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Re: preview for boston 2 mile

Postby 26mi235 » Fri Feb 01, 2013 2:23 pm

Speed is not the only constraint for limitations on trying to set the WR in the marathon. There are many, many 10,000 notables among the failed marathoners. Yes, some make it, like Zatopek, Geb, Paula and a number of (especially Kenyan) runners with early (and young) track success have gone right to the road racing circuit. But many more have not. Women might do better in this regard than the men.

It does seem like this is a bit of a cash generating race for Dibaba - this makes it seem more likely that she will run 8:30-8:35 and run to win rather than to be below 8:30.
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Re: preview for boston 2 mile

Postby az2004 » Fri Feb 01, 2013 3:14 pm

my read on t. dibaba is she's probably in a base phase building her mileage..

this is a pay day race, she'll come run take the money, take the big bucks for london, and try to be ready for moscow

as to cuffe, ive seen her run at penn relays a few times

strong as a bull.cranks out a hard even pace..

saw the 3k at penn where she , waverly neer and hayley pierce had an epic race

cuffe pushed the whole way, neer and pierce followed with 600 to go cuffe went, broke neer bu pierce went with 300 and her milers kick ran away from cuffe

as to boston 2 mile cain did beat erdmann in seattle, so a group of erdmann, reid, cain, martinez, the yong ethipian. sofifuentes, higginson, hyman i see going at a faster pace than seattle, possibly 8:45 to 8:50 range of cain at 3k

meaning 9:15 to 9:20 for 2 mile, down goes cuffe, another record shattering
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Re: preview for boston 2 mile

Postby ExCoastRanger » Fri Feb 01, 2013 7:14 pm

Martinez had a bit of a breakout year in 2012. Seems like she likes to get in the mix and go after it in a race. Last year she went 1:59.14 2:38.48, 4:06.96 and 4:26.76.
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Re: preview for boston 2 mile

Postby az2004 » Sat Feb 02, 2013 7:45 am

agree on martinez, here future may be now, i see her as a player for the team in moscow

looking at the startlist,higginson was a pacer for the 4:32 mile race

presume she gets that role again later today

although it's hard to know what t dibaba pace request will be

the rest of the field should have a solid pace too

SARAH BROWN USA
BRENDA MARTINEZ USA
SHEILA REID CAN
MARY CAIN USA
NICOLE SIFUENTES CAN
GOTYTOM GEBRESLASE ETH
TARA ERDMANN USA
MARDREA HYMAN


i was thinking 4:45 mile is hard but 4:47 might be just right which is 9:24, but my guess at a big kick has 9:20 as likely..

interesting to know what alberto has planned

from seattle erdmann was 2 beinng cain
sifuestes armory 2 ahead of cain
sheila reid ran 4:30 at pennst

these are the 3 cain may well focus upon

martinez may be closer to dibaba
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Re: preview for boston 2 mile

Postby aaronk » Sat Feb 02, 2013 10:03 am

I've predicted a VERY fast race for Cain tonight, as you all know.
Somewhere in the mid-8:40's, barring catastrophe.
But here, I want to say WHY I think she'll be in the mix with this pro crowd.

At 16, she's not afraid of women older than her.
She WON against Erdmann in Seattle.
She finished just 1 second behind 26 year olds Bowman Brown and Sifuentes last week.
(And closed faster than both of them!!)

She's powerful.
Meaning her stride.
When she goes, she GOES!!
I've seen those videos, and her legs and arms are PUMPING, with a stride length to match the very best of them!

She has a kick.
62.5 in that Penn mile.
The fastest time between 1500 and 1609.1 last week of everyone in the race. (16.67)
Even in the mud and muck, she was closing on Baxter in that Portland CC race.

Her determination and desire to run FAST.....every time out.
Yes, she wants to win too, but she wants to run FAST in doing so!!
I don't think she's the type that would go out in 75 in an OG 1500!!

Combine all the above, with her youthful naivete (even though she is very mature for her age, meaning mature in the mind!!), and the coaching of Alberto Salazar, and T Dibaba just might be hugging (and taking a victory lap with) a FOUR time HSR holder after tonight's race!!

ADDED later: Dibaba said, in a pre-race interview, she wants to chase the meet record (9:10.50 for two miles), and that she'd been training specifically for that!!
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Re: preview for boston 2 mile

Postby az2004 » Sat Feb 02, 2013 10:59 am

arronk, this is a 2 mile race, not a 3k race, your 8:40 might be thru 3k, but i'm a bit more conservative than you are

i can see mile 1 in 4:45 range, then back it uo wiht similar 2 mile, with a kick

which gets me around 9:25 overall

erdmann, bowman, sifuentes, reid pace will drive how hard cain goes

if they go 4:40 mile 1, i find it hard to double that, but who knows

9:25 woulld lower hs outdoor record by 30 seconds or so

looking at the 9:02 3k again, she sit's comfortably in 4th most of the way

then kicks past moser and erdmann to win

reid has a good kick as does martinez, lets see where cain measures up, suspect t dibaba has best kick in the race
Last edited by az2004 on Sat Feb 02, 2013 11:17 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: preview for boston 2 mile

Postby aaronk » Sat Feb 02, 2013 11:17 am

az2004 wrote:arronk, this is a 2 mile race, not a 3k race, your 8:40 might be thru 3k, but i'm a bit more conservative than you are

i can see mile 1 in 4:45 range, then back it uo wiht similar 2 mile, with a kick

which gets me around 9:25 overall

erdmann, bowman, sifuentes, reid pace will drive how hard cain goes

if they go 4:40 mile 1, i find it hard to double that, but who knows

9:25 woulld lower hs outdoor record by 30 seconds or so


Yes, I know it's a two mile!!
My predicted time was for Cain's 3K enroute, which will be officially timed!
It will be VERY interesting to see whether Cain "runs for 2nd"....or takes it to Dibaba....the way G Lindgren did in his '64 indoor season against Gaston Roelants and Ron Clarke....both then considered on a level with Dibaba!!

But yes, either way (run with the pack, or try to stay with Dibaba as long as she can), I think we'll be seeing a FOUR TIME High School record breaker tonight!!
(the 2 HSR's last week, and 2 tonight)
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Re: preview for boston 2 mile

Postby az2004 » Sat Feb 02, 2013 11:27 am

i do understand you now

dibaba going for 9:10 would be 4:35 pace, and cain doing 4:45 pace hangs her in the neighborhood for a while particularly with the 7 others who will be able to do a very solid pace

she should sit and kick if salazar is right and she's rreally 4:25 mile shape, you nay be right and her handling 4:40 pace

JUST SAW THE CUFFE 2 MILE RECORD AGAIN 9:54.22 was what i saw
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Re: preview for boston 2 mile

Postby aaronk » Sat Feb 02, 2013 4:31 pm

With just a few minutes to go before the race, I'm listening to Tom Petty sing....

"The wa-ai-ting is the hardest part!"

Arggggggghhhhh!!!

LOL
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Re: preview for boston 2 mile

Postby gh » Sat Feb 02, 2013 4:40 pm

aaronk wrote:....
ADDED later: Dibaba said, in a pre-race interview, she wants to chase the meet record (9:10.50 for two miles), and that she'd been training specifically for that!!


In pre-race interviews, athletes generally say what the meet promoter wants them to say.
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Re: preview for boston 2 mile

Postby aaronk » Sat Feb 02, 2013 4:56 pm

Knowing NOTHING of how the race played out, it APPEARS there were TWO races!!
Dibaba up front running for the meet record.
Cain and the rest running for the runner-up "victory"!!

Disappointed by her time, I have a STRONG feeling it was NOT her fault, or inability to run faster.

She beat the two (Bowman and Sifuentes) that beat her last week!
She again beat Erdmann, as she did in Seattle.
She beat Martinez, an elite American.

I'm GUESSING they all let Dibaba do her thing, while they ran a tactical race.
Eliminating Dibaba for the moment, she lost ONLY to Reid, which ain't too shabby!!

I'm ALSO guessing that, if she'd WANTED to, or Salazar had told her to, she COULD have stuck with Dibaba's pace through at least the first 2000 meters!!

Anyway, two more OFFICIAL HSR's for Mary Cain!!
(She beat the old records by 13 and 17 seconds, respectively!!)
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Re: preview for boston 2 mile

Postby unclezadok » Sat Feb 02, 2013 5:04 pm

Disappointed by her time???
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Re: preview for boston 2 mile

Postby guru » Sat Feb 02, 2013 5:04 pm

aaronk wrote:
Disappointed by her time, I have a STRONG feeling it was NOT her fault, or inability to run faster.


Huh?? Are you insane? :?


I'm ALSO guessing that, if she'd WANTED to, or Salazar had told her to, she COULD have stuck with Dibaba's pace through at least the first 2000 meters!!




Yes, that confirms it...
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Re: preview for boston 2 mile

Postby az2004 » Sat Feb 02, 2013 5:19 pm

Finals
1 Tirunesh Dibaba ETH 9:13.17 8:38.44 (3000m)
2 Sheila Reid CAN 9:37.97
3 Mary Cain USA 9:38.68 9:04.51 (3000m)
4 Nicole Sifuentes CAN 9:38.78
5 Tara Erdmann USA 9:39.48
6 Sarah Bowman USA 9:41.59
7 Ashley Higginson USA 9:49.00
8 Brenda Martinez USA 9:51.91
9 Gotytom Gebreslase ETH 10:05.40
-- Mardrea Hyman JAM DNF


mile 1 in 4:50 came back with 4:48 sat near back of pack and worked her way thru the pack

she and reid were kicking for 2nd, and we know reid kick

the hs ethiopian got toasted..

smart race for cain, she did go out hard 100meters..

17 destruction of 2 mile record...
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Re: preview for boston 2 mile

Postby aaronk » Sat Feb 02, 2013 5:25 pm

guru wrote:
aaronk wrote:
Disappointed by her time, I have a STRONG feeling it was NOT her fault, or inability to run faster.


Huh?? Are you insane? :?


I'm ALSO guessing that, if she'd WANTED to, or Salazar had told her to, she COULD have stuck with Dibaba's pace through at least the first 2000 meters!!




Yes, that confirms it...


Oh, really??

Here's EXACTLY how the race played out, with the stats to prove it!!

Cain was in 7th at 1600 in 4:53.491.
She finished 3rd!

Cain's 1K's were.....
3:05.755
2:59.887
3:01.887!

The final 400's (actually from 2600 to 3000) were:
Dibaba: 66.782
Bowman: 71.171
Cain: 71.643
All others 72 or slower!

Final 218 meters, from 3000 to two miles:
Reid: 30.763
Cain: 31.147
Sifuentes: 31.318
Dibaba (!!!): 31.678.

Proving, to me at least, the race was a TACTICAL one (for the runner-up spot), thus making me stand by what I said!!
Cain COULD have gone a whole lot faster!!!

But I AM happy she now owns FOUR official indoor HSR's!!
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Re: preview for boston 2 mile

Postby az2004 » Sat Feb 02, 2013 5:37 pm

yes, it is indoors, wait forher to go after outdoor marks

wonder what her plans will be

i'd be happy with sub 4:30 at millrose
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Re: preview for boston 2 mile

Postby guru » Sat Feb 02, 2013 5:38 pm

aaronk -

As you said, you know nothing about how the race played out, so it's probably best if you stop while you're behind.

She may well run faster this year, but Cain ran what she capable of tonight, helped along by Sheila Reid stringing out the chase group and keep the pace honest.
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Re: preview for boston 2 mile

Postby az2004 » Sat Feb 02, 2013 5:45 pm

i saw the race on espn3..

she did drop back intentionally, afeter a quick start ealry

martinez tried going with dibaba

cain worked her way up slowly..


reid kicked, cain kicked, both had solid finish

sofifuentes got outkicked by cain over 2 miles

i'd be very satisfied with the acumen cain showed

almost got sucked into too fas a pace early, the sai whoa follow the plan alterto gave me

they interwies cain after the race, NOT dibaba
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Re: preview for boston 2 mile

Postby doug5321 » Sat Feb 02, 2013 5:47 pm

Final 218 meters, from 3000 to two miles:
Reid: 30.763
Cain: 31.147
Sifuentes: 31.318
Dibaba (!!!): 31.678.

maybe these are the official times, but if they were all together with 218 meters left, dibaba would smoke reid, and everyone knows it.
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Re: preview for boston 2 mile

Postby aaronk » Sat Feb 02, 2013 5:54 pm

doug5321 wrote:Final 218 meters, from 3000 to two miles:
Reid: 30.763
Cain: 31.147
Sifuentes: 31.318
Dibaba (!!!): 31.678.

maybe these are the official times, but if they were all together with 218 meters left, dibaba would smoke reid, and everyone knows it.


Maybe you're right, but tonight, the official stats say NYET!!

Reid beat Dibaba over the final 218 by about 0.9 secs!
Cain also beat Dibaba on that split, by more than 0.5 secs!!
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Re: preview for boston 2 mile

Postby Marlow » Sat Feb 02, 2013 6:45 pm

guru wrote:
aaronk wrote:Disappointed by her time, I have a STRONG feeling it was NOT her fault, or inability to run faster.

Huh?? Are you insane? :?
I'm ALSO guessing that, if she'd WANTED to, or Salazar had told her to, she COULD have stuck with Dibaba's pace through at least the first 2000 meters!!

Yes, that confirms it...

Must agree with the Guru.
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Re: preview for boston 2 mile

Postby Dutra5 » Sat Feb 02, 2013 7:05 pm

aaronk wrote:
Disappointed by her time, I have a STRONG feeling it was NOT her fault, or inability to run faster.


Fault for what? Not running a time that you're probably the only one on the planet would believe she could run. If you're disappointed then take a dose of reality and simply enjoy the fact that she's a talented 16 year old kid. She ran a great race.
Last edited by Dutra5 on Sat Feb 02, 2013 7:34 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: preview for boston 2 mile [2 HSRs for Cain]

Postby kuha » Sat Feb 02, 2013 7:19 pm

Just saw this result. Truly amazing.
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Re: preview for boston 2 mile [2 HSRs for Cain]

Postby aaronk » Sat Feb 02, 2013 7:37 pm

While it's probably NOT the best indicator of who the best American female distance runners are (or have been), but here is the revised list of All Time American Indoor Female Two Milers (performers)....the Boston women are in ALL CAPS.

1. Jacobs--9:23.38 (2002)
2. Jennings--9:28.15 (1986)
3. Bremser--9:28.29 (1986)
4. Merrill--9:31.7 (1979)
4. Slaney--9:31.7 (1983)
6. Rhines--9:35.29 (2008)
7. Rudolph--9:35.66 (2002)
8. Hansen--9:37.03 (1982)
9. Kenah--9:38.06 (2002)
10. Larrieu--9:38.1 (1981)
11. CAIN--9:38.68 (2013)
12. ERDMANN--9:39.48 (2013)
13. Easker--9:40.54 (1985)
14. Dornhoefer--9:40.73 (1986)
15. BOWMAN--9:41.59 (2013)
ADD....20. HIGGINSON--9:49.00 (2013)
25. MARTINEZ--9:51.91 (2013)
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Re: preview for boston 2 mile [2 HSRs for Cain]

Postby aaronk » Sat Feb 02, 2013 7:59 pm

Question:

Why is Cain's official HSR for 3000 shown as 9:04.51...when the splits chart provided by the Boston people showed her 3000 as 9:07.53 (rounded off)??

It appears the splits chart had every 200 charted.
I counted the 200 splits, and her 3000 WAS listed as being 9:07.53!!
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Re: preview for boston 2 mile [2 HSRs for Cain]

Postby Dutra5 » Sat Feb 02, 2013 8:06 pm

aaronk wrote:Question:

Why is Cain's official HSR for 3000 shown as 9:04.51...when the splits chart provided by the Boston people showed her 3000 as 9:07.53 (rounded off)??

It appears the splits chart had every 200 charted.
I counted the 200 splits, and her 3000 WAS listed as being 9:07.53!!


i don't think the last split is for 3000m. I think the round from 3200m to 2 mi was made before the first split which is why that split is slow. The first 400 on TV was given as a 67 while the splits taken are around 71.
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Re: preview for boston 2 mile [2 HSRs for Cain]

Postby guru » Sat Feb 02, 2013 8:07 pm

aaronk wrote:I counted the 200 splits, and her 3000 WAS listed as being 9:07.53!!



http://www.nbindoorgrandprix.com/events ... -two-mile/
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Re: preview for boston 2 mile [2 HSRs for Cain]

Postby Dutra5 » Sat Feb 02, 2013 8:10 pm

guru wrote:
aaronk wrote:I counted the 200 splits, and her 3000 WAS listed as being 9:07.53!!



http://www.nbindoorgrandprix.com/events ... -two-mile/


He's using the split chart on the flash results site which give a final split of the 9:07. That is not a 3000m split though.
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Re: preview for boston 2 mile [2 HSRs for Cain]

Postby az2004 » Sun Feb 03, 2013 3:51 am

going into the race, i was thinking 4:45 back to back would be her best possible race

and since an ideal race seldomly happens, 4:47 4:47 was a tad more likely

with 9:38 that;s 4:49 4:49 which is far more than acceptable to be

with mary slaney best of 9:31 it's just shocking mary cain ran within 7 seconds of a grown women, and still a teemager

and within a second of francie larrieu
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Re: preview for boston 2 mile [2 HSRs for Cain]

Postby az2004 » Sun Feb 03, 2013 4:08 am

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Re: preview for boston 2 mile [2 HSRs for Cain]

Postby doug5321 » Sun Feb 03, 2013 4:12 am

az2004 wrote:going into the race, i was thinking 4:45 back to back would be her best possible race

and since an ideal race seldomly happens, 4:47 4:47 was a tad more likely

with 9:38 that;s 4:49 4:49 which is far more than acceptable to be

with mary slaney best of 9:31 it's just shocking mary cain ran within 7 seconds of a grown women, and still a teemager

and within a second of francie larrieu



slaneys 3000 time is about 9:05 fpr 2 miles. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc ... mblE#gid=0
Last edited by doug5321 on Sun Feb 03, 2013 4:17 am, edited 1 time in total.
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