interesting cuffe anchor was a 73, while cain can go mid 60 range, cain has a huge edge with her kick as she can nail 8 seconds or so
im smelling a good chance to get the 2 mile mark
Cuffe ran very even pace in that race, which is the optimal strategy for minimizing time. If Cain runs even pace to her maximum effort, she is not going to suddenly go 8 seconds faster on her last lap. At that point she was running for time, not racing for place, where she would have a faster finish (but slower overall time). [Cuffee's last 440 yards was 73.41, about 73.0 for 400m]
From the looks of the lineup, it'll be the two Africans up front, with Dibaba almost certainly winning. She always runs FAST at Boston, whether the 3K/2 mile or the 5K, so I'm predicting she'll continue that history!!
Maybe mid-8:20's, with 8:35 being the slowest I'd predict for Dibaba. Of the non-Africans, it looks like a race between Bowman (Brown), maybe Reid, Martinez, Erdmann.....and Cain!!
I've seen almost ALL her track races, from frosh year on up to now (on video!), and she's almost always hung back a bit, trying to stay out of trouble (falling, tripping, getting boxed)...and then kicking like it's nobody's business (at least for a high school kid!!!).
So I'll go out on a limb, and say Cain's WORST race (barring a broken leg, falling, and remaining on the track for 20 seconds!!) will be in the 8:55 range for 3K, and 9:30 for 2 miles.
Her BEST race COULD be not THAT far behind Dibaba......maybe the 100 meters she mentioned in that long interview!!
If Big D runs that 8:25, and Mary's within 100 meters of her, then Cain's time would be 8:40-8:42 for 3K, and about 9:15-9:17 for the two mile
Either way....or somewhere in between, she SMASHES both HSR's by maybe DOZENS of seconds!!
She is THIS close to being SERIOUS national class!! And I mean AMERICAN national class....not high school!!
nevetsllim wrote:Does anyone else think it's a bit strange Dibaba's racing indoors over two miles when she's just announced she'll make her marathon debut in April? Seems a bit unconventional.
she said even after running marathons, she will continue to compete in track.
i think its a good idea to continue running track races to keep the speed high.
i have a feeling the ethiopian federation would NOT let t. dibaba and defar abandon track even if they wanted, at least until ethiopia comes up with runners at 5/10000 who are just as good, they have many good runners, but those 2 are far and away ethiopias best.
also racing is fun, the conventional thing to do in at least most american runners minds now is just train as much as possible and race as little as possible, ideally 2 marathons a year maybe a half marathon, does not seem as fun as racing frequently mixing it up at other distances.
with t. dibaba, and defar world records will be the eventual goal even at the marathon meaning better than 2:15.25, so the speed will have to remain very high.
Speed is not the only constraint for limitations on trying to set the WR in the marathon. There are many, many 10,000 notables among the failed marathoners. Yes, some make it, like Zatopek, Geb, Paula and a number of (especially Kenyan) runners with early (and young) track success have gone right to the road racing circuit. But many more have not. Women might do better in this regard than the men.
It does seem like this is a bit of a cash generating race for Dibaba - this makes it seem more likely that she will run 8:30-8:35 and run to win rather than to be below 8:30.
my read on t. dibaba is she's probably in a base phase building her mileage..
this is a pay day race, she'll come run take the money, take the big bucks for london, and try to be ready for moscow
as to cuffe, ive seen her run at penn relays a few times
strong as a bull.cranks out a hard even pace..
saw the 3k at penn where she , waverly neer and hayley pierce had an epic race
cuffe pushed the whole way, neer and pierce followed with 600 to go cuffe went, broke neer bu pierce went with 300 and her milers kick ran away from cuffe
as to boston 2 mile cain did beat erdmann in seattle, so a group of erdmann, reid, cain, martinez, the yong ethipian. sofifuentes, higginson, hyman i see going at a faster pace than seattle, possibly 8:45 to 8:50 range of cain at 3k
meaning 9:15 to 9:20 for 2 mile, down goes cuffe, another record shattering
I've predicted a VERY fast race for Cain tonight, as you all know. Somewhere in the mid-8:40's, barring catastrophe. But here, I want to say WHY I think she'll be in the mix with this pro crowd.
At 16, she's not afraid of women older than her. She WON against Erdmann in Seattle. She finished just 1 second behind 26 year olds Bowman Brown and Sifuentes last week. (And closed faster than both of them!!)
She's powerful. Meaning her stride. When she goes, she GOES!! I've seen those videos, and her legs and arms are PUMPING, with a stride length to match the very best of them!
She has a kick. 62.5 in that Penn mile. The fastest time between 1500 and 1609.1 last week of everyone in the race. (16.67) Even in the mud and muck, she was closing on Baxter in that Portland CC race.
Her determination and desire to run FAST.....every time out. Yes, she wants to win too, but she wants to run FAST in doing so!! I don't think she's the type that would go out in 75 in an OG 1500!!
Combine all the above, with her youthful naivete (even though she is very mature for her age, meaning mature in the mind!!), and the coaching of Alberto Salazar, and T Dibaba just might be hugging (and taking a victory lap with) a FOUR time HSR holder after tonight's race!!
ADDED later: Dibaba said, in a pre-race interview, she wants to chase the meet record (9:10.50 for two miles), and that she'd been training specifically for that!!
az2004 wrote:arronk, this is a 2 mile race, not a 3k race, your 8:40 might be thru 3k, but i'm a bit more conservative than you are
i can see mile 1 in 4:45 range, then back it uo wiht similar 2 mile, with a kick
which gets me around 9:25 overall
erdmann, bowman, sifuentes, reid pace will drive how hard cain goes
if they go 4:40 mile 1, i find it hard to double that, but who knows
9:25 woulld lower hs outdoor record by 30 seconds or so
Yes, I know it's a two mile!! My predicted time was for Cain's 3K enroute, which will be officially timed! It will be VERY interesting to see whether Cain "runs for 2nd"....or takes it to Dibaba....the way G Lindgren did in his '64 indoor season against Gaston Roelants and Ron Clarke....both then considered on a level with Dibaba!!
But yes, either way (run with the pack, or try to stay with Dibaba as long as she can), I think we'll be seeing a FOUR TIME High School record breaker tonight!! (the 2 HSR's last week, and 2 tonight)
Finals 1 Tirunesh Dibaba ETH 9:13.17 8:38.44 (3000m) 2 Sheila Reid CAN 9:37.97 3 Mary Cain USA 9:38.68 9:04.51 (3000m) 4 Nicole Sifuentes CAN 9:38.78 5 Tara Erdmann USA 9:39.48 6 Sarah Bowman USA 9:41.59 7 Ashley Higginson USA 9:49.00 8 Brenda Martinez USA 9:51.91 9 Gotytom Gebreslase ETH 10:05.40 -- Mardrea Hyman JAM DNF
mile 1 in 4:50 came back with 4:48 sat near back of pack and worked her way thru the pack
she and reid were kicking for 2nd, and we know reid kick
the hs ethiopian got toasted..
smart race for cain, she did go out hard 100meters..