Which of these will eventually go sub 22?


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Which of these will eventually go sub 22?

Postby fasttrack85 » Sun Jan 20, 2013 12:03 pm

Shelly Ann Fraser
Sanya Richards Ross
Carmelita Jeter
Bianca Knight
Kimberlyn Duncan
Jeneba Tarmoh
Sherone SImpson
Tiana Madison


I feel 2 people on the list I provided will eventually be sub 22 very soon and one probably this year. There is a third person I believe can go sub 22 but if her focus is continuosly on another event her chances to run sub 22 will be very slim. I won't bias the thread with my opinions so take your picks.
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Re: Which of these will eventually go sub 22?

Postby eldanielfire » Sun Jan 20, 2013 12:29 pm

Frazer-Price is the most likely, especially as her coach has stated to her the 200m could become her best event. I think Jeter may not have her best years ahead of her now and Richards-Ross I think doesn't have the outright pace, especially as basically a 400m specialist who runs 200m for fun.

Hard to say about Madison, shes come late into the game so who knows?

I think so unknown Jamaican or American will be next to be honest.
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Re: Which of these will eventually go sub 22?

Postby j-a-m » Sun Jan 20, 2013 1:01 pm

The most likely is Duncan, given how good she is that early in her career. I also believe in SAFP and Madison, though.
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Re: Which of these will eventually go sub 22?

Postby 26mi235 » Sun Jan 20, 2013 2:15 pm

Duncan is the best guess of the younger runners; Madison is new to sprinting and has some potential from technique etc that someone her age does not usually have. In a way, both SAFP and Jeter also have 200 'learning' to do. It is hard to square SAFP's biggest strength, the start, into a natural for the 200, but her performance last season was impressive. It will be tough for her to do it in the best race, though because not only is the 100 first, but the 200 fields are deep enough that you have to work through the rounds. I think that those rounds were too much for Sanya, who was just not fast enough for the first 120m (after three rounds of the 400 and two of the 200, including a great SF) relative to the other gals in the Final.

K, S and T seem more like long shots to me - medal hopes but not sub-22.
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Re: Which of these will eventually go sub 22?

Postby eldanielfire » Sun Jan 20, 2013 2:50 pm

26mi235 wrote:Duncan is the best guess of the younger runners; Madison is new to sprinting and has some potential from technique etc that someone her age does not usually have. In a way, both SAFP and Jeter also have 200 'learning' to do. It is hard to square SAFP's biggest strength, the start, into a natural for the 200, but her performance last season was impressive. It will be tough for her to do it in the best race, though because not only is the 100 first, but the 200 fields are deep enough that you have to work through the rounds. I think that those rounds were too much for Sanya, who was just not fast enough for the first 120m (after three rounds of the 400 and two of the 200, including a great SF) relative to the other gals in the Final.

K, S and T seem more like long shots to me - medal hopes but not sub-22.



This is true for SAFP, but all her main competitors also have to run those rounds and they all compete in the 100m like her.
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Re: Which of these will eventually go sub 22?

Postby 26mi235 » Sun Jan 20, 2013 3:41 pm

But the question isn't who will win, but who will go under 22. Several on that list will not be doing three rounds of the 100 and maybe not any, especially Duncan (also Madison? Tarmoh?).
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Re: Which of these will eventually go sub 22?

Postby t_monk » Sun Jan 20, 2013 5:53 pm

SAFP is the most likely candidate, after SAFP there is Duncan.

The question wasn't whether they would do it in the Championship finals bit if they would do it period.

SRR is focused on the 400 more than the 200 clearly ad I think that emphasis on the 400 will prevent her from going sub-22.

Jeter... As a previous poster said, her best days seem behind her. I don't think she will get to sub-22 at this point.

BK has been kinda stagnant since 2008. Sad to say it looks like she won't ever reach her full potential.

Tarmoh... I actually think she can do it, but I need to see her running for another season or two.

Simpson... She is the one who clearly has the potential, we all know it is or at least was there. So again it is going to come down to her being fully fit.

Madison... I don't think she will get there... that being said I didn't think she would have been a good 100 m runner either.
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Re: Which of these will eventually go sub 22?

Postby fasttrack85 » Mon Jan 21, 2013 6:33 pm

Now for my answer. The two I believe will go sub 22 are SAFP and Duncan. SAFP likely this year and Duncan within the next two years. Like others have said Jeter's best days are likely coming to a close and with the 200 being her secondary event i dont see it happening. Sanya I believe was actually in sub 22 form in 2012 but she had unfavorable conditions( 22.09 -0.3) in her pb race and then ran too quickly in her semi final (22.15 0.8) at the us trials after rounds of the 400 so didn't have the gusto in the finals. I still say she should dedicate a season or two to the 100/200 based on her potential because she won't have the opportunity to do it in another five years or so. Knight has spectacular curve running abilities at times but I think she needs to drop at least 15 pounds to even think about going sub 22. Madison i just don't think will be able to do it she can get close but close is all she will get. Tarmoh actually has a shot and she really is working with prob the best 200 coach in America imo. She needs a bit more of that warrior ethos in her though. Even though I think she was robbed slightly at trials she should have gone down fighting cuz winners fight till the end. Even though I added Sherone Simpson to the list I really don't think she has any shot at all of making sub 22 again but I kinda feel like she already did. She has the unfortunate distinction of running 22.00 legally twice in one season and once into a slight headwind but I know the IAAF is exact with the numbers and doesn't convert.

On another note I think Allyson will go faster this year simply because she said she wants to and I know when Allyson sets goals she attains and doesnt make excuses. I also feel that we may have seen the last of VCB's sub 22 days. Guess we will have to wait and see.
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Re: Which of these will eventually go sub 22?

Postby bignate88 » Mon Jan 21, 2013 6:56 pm

Fraser Pryce for sure

I see Sanya Richards going sub 22, but only on the circuit

Duncan looks very promising

I think it's funny how folks are writing off Jeter by virtue of her age. She did nothing but improve in the 200 from 2011 to 2012, and barring slight back and hamstring issues(See her interview in the January issue) I think she would have gone sub 22 last year as well( I wont go into what she could have done in the 100, mainly because this is about the 200m). As for her slowing down, I seriously think she has a good 3 years before that starts to happen. In those 3 good years are some sub 22s for sure
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Re: Which of these will eventually go sub 22?

Postby ATK » Tue Jan 22, 2013 11:01 am

bignate88 wrote:I think it's funny how folks are writing off Jeter by virtue of her age. She did nothing but improve in the 200 from 2011 to 2012, and barring slight back and hamstring issues(See her interview in the January issue) I think she would have gone sub 22 last year as well( I wont go into what she could have done in the 100, mainly because this is about the 200m). As for her slowing down, I seriously think she has a good 3 years before that starts to happen. In those 3 good years are some sub 22s for sure

I agree 100%.
Jeter wasn't pounding her body with international competition/training until she was 27. She probably has a few years of growth left before she really starts to decline.
I think Jeter and SAFP are the two most likely additions to the club. Sanya is very likely as well, but I don't think she will get the right opportunity to do so.
Duncan has some years to go even though she seems close.
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Re: Which of these will eventually go sub 22?

Postby az2004 » Tue Jan 22, 2013 11:25 am

i agree with duncan, and the voice who said and unknown jamaican can be correct because of the yong boatload of talent on the island
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Re: Which of these will eventually go sub 22?

Postby Speedster » Wed Jan 23, 2013 3:29 am

It's a really hard milestone to achieve as we've discussed over the last year, perhaps no one will run it this year, let alone someone new to join the club. It was also an Olympic year and people pull out all stops to be in the best shape possible, further progress might be possible unless someone continues to build on their 2012 intensity.

Duncan has the most potential to improve but not with LSU commitments this year. If her career sees her focus on the 200m only at majors, I think she can be a World or Olympic champion and break 22.
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Re: Which of these will eventually go sub 22?

Postby ATK » Wed Jan 23, 2013 4:20 am

Speedster wrote:Duncan has the most potential to improve but not with LSU commitments this year. If her career sees her focus on the 200m only at majors, I think she can be a World or Olympic champion and break 22.

Explain...her LSU commitments got her to a 22.15....
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Re: Which of these will eventually go sub 22?

Postby aaronk » Wed Jan 23, 2013 4:36 am

I would add English Gardner to the list!!
No one's mentioned her, so count her as one of those "unknowns" who could run sub-22!
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Re: Which of these will eventually go sub 22?

Postby j-a-m » Wed Jan 23, 2013 5:18 am

aaronk wrote:I would add English Gardner to the list!!
No one's mentioned her, so count her as one of those "unknowns" who could run sub-22!

Yeah, good point. Last year she focused on the 100, but then ran a great 4x400 relay leg at NCAAs. Will be interesting to see whether she focuses on both 100 and 200 this year.
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Re: Which of these will eventually go sub 22?

Postby fasttrack85 » Thu Jan 24, 2013 10:20 am

I like English Gardner but I dont know if I would be so quick to lump her in with the sub 22 crowd yet when there are girls who have both better 100 meter speed and better 400 meter endurance who have not run sub 22 yet. I believe she is likely to be the newest addition to the sub 11 category but she is far from sub 22 in my book. Think about it 2012 was an olympic year and only one woman was able to do it. She is an awesome talent but she will have to run some more 200's to show me what she can do in the deuce before I co-sign her.
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Re: Which of these will eventually go sub 22?

Postby 26mi235 » Thu Jan 24, 2013 12:28 pm

Yes, but Gardner is young and still improving at a more rapid rate than all of the others at the longer sprints, I think (and possibly in the 100 as well). The relay leg at NCAAs was one of the biggest surprises. Given how few times she has run the event, she will probably get faster at the 400. That should help her carry her 100 speed into the 200. But this season is too soon.


Another one of interest in Ashley Spencer, the 400 runner from Illinois. When she ran a 51-high in the HEATS of the Big Ten meet it really caught people's attention (25-meter gaps over good runners are pretty impressive). She followed that up with a 51.02 in the final on what is a good but not blazingly fast track; stunningly good for a freshman that did not come out of high school with a bunch of state and national titles. Her rate of improvement was so rapid that it will be interesting to see what she runs in the 400 this year and what she runs for other distances.
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Re: Which of these will eventually go sub 22?

Postby ATK » Thu Jan 24, 2013 6:46 pm

26mi235 wrote:Another one of interest in Ashley Spencer, the 400 runner from Illinois. When she ran a 51-high in the HEATS of the Big Ten meet it really caught people's attention (25-meter gaps over good runners are pretty impressive). She followed that up with a 51.02 in the final on what is a good but not blazingly fast track; stunningly good for a freshman that did not come out of high school with a bunch of state and national titles. Her rate of improvement was so rapid that it will be interesting to see what she runs in the 400 this year and what she runs for other distances.

Spencer is ofcourse on the road to 400m success. But sub 22? I don't see her being nearly that quick.
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Re: Which of these will eventually go sub 22?

Postby 26mi235 » Thu Jan 24, 2013 10:25 pm

I do not think she well be that quick either, but her last spring was so stunning that I want to see how the next two seasons progress. Maybe it is a one-time jump to superb training and coaching and the remaining gains will be small. However, she ran few 400s before (did 300h more than anything else, although she must have been a staple on her high school 4x400 team and maybe her 4x100 team).

I was so surprised at the Big Ten meet (officiated the vault, plus miscellaneous minor things) that I did not look that closely at her form, but my memory is that she look surprisingly easy for that level from an 'unheralded' frosh. However, basic speed tends to be more apparent than other qualities (except for HOPS, which seems to be the quintessential natural talent).
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Re: Which of these will eventually go sub 22?

Postby Speedster » Fri Jan 25, 2013 10:23 pm

ATK wrote:
Speedster wrote:Duncan has the most potential to improve but not with LSU commitments this year. If her career sees her focus on the 200m only at majors, I think she can be a World or Olympic champion and break 22.

Explain...her LSU commitments got her to a 22.15....


We talked last year about how rare a sub 22 is and I think the relay and 100m commitments Duncan has before she gets to race the 200m means that she might not be fresh enough to get there. Physically she has the gifts to do it but no one has done it during the NCAA season before and I think there is probably a reason for that.

I'd love to be proven wrong!
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Re: Which of these will eventually go sub 22?

Postby ATK » Mon Jan 28, 2013 1:11 am

Speedster wrote:
ATK wrote:
Speedster wrote:Duncan has the most potential to improve but not with LSU commitments this year. If her career sees her focus on the 200m only at majors, I think she can be a World or Olympic champion and break 22.

Explain...her LSU commitments got her to a 22.15....


We talked last year about how rare a sub 22 is and I think the relay and 100m commitments Duncan has before she gets to race the 200m means that she might not be fresh enough to get there. Physically she has the gifts to do it but no one has done it during the NCAA season before and I think there is probably a reason for that.

I'd love to be proven wrong!

But 22.1 is not an easy feat either. For her to hit that time after(about) 60 races between Jan and June and still ran 5th fastest in the world in an Olympic year is pretty ridiculous.

21 for women is about as rare as 43 for men or 48 for women, but if your looking for a new comer to bet on, this is probably your girl.
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Re: Which of these will eventually go sub 22?

Postby jazzcyclist » Mon Jan 28, 2013 6:41 am

Speedster wrote:We talked last year about how rare a sub 22 is and I think the relay and 100m commitments Duncan has before she gets to race the 200m means that she might not be fresh enough to get there. Physically she has the gifts to do it but no one has done it during the NCAA season before and I think there is probably a reason for that.

I'd love to be proven wrong!

I'm sure that Ms. Duncan, who lowered her 60 PR by 0.04s over the weekend, is up to the challenge of founding college's sub-22 club. Here's her most recent race.

http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?v=10101931174787275
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