Mary Cain 9:02.10 3k (Oversized track) [overall HSR]


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Re: Mary Cain 9:02.10 3k (Oversized track) [overall HSR]

Postby JumboElliott » Sun Jan 13, 2013 4:24 pm

The real question is: What's her best distance?
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Re: Mary Cain 9:02.10 3k (Oversized track) [overall HSR]

Postby 26mi235 » Sun Jan 13, 2013 7:00 pm

Master Po wrote:I have no idea what a normal or typical progression should look like for Cain or any elite athlete, but I am interested in Cain's actual progression at this distance in her very young career. I know she has raced 800 & 1500/mile more frequently, but I have seen these times mentioned, though I don't know anything about their circumstances:

2011
9:28.6

2012
9:32.2

Assuming these are correct, 2013 already represents a major step in the progression. Of course, we already know this, but I think it's useful to be reminded of what she's actually done.


9:28//[9:P15]//9:02 look past her infrequent 3000s last year.
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Re: Mary Cain 9:02.10 3k (Oversized track) [overall HSR]

Postby Master Po » Sun Jan 13, 2013 7:51 pm

26mi235 wrote:
Master Po wrote:I have no idea what a normal or typical progression should look like for Cain or any elite athlete, but I am interested in Cain's actual progression at this distance in her very young career. I know she has raced 800 & 1500/mile more frequently, but I have seen these times mentioned, though I don't know anything about their circumstances:

2011
9:28.6

2012
9:32.2

Assuming these are correct, 2013 already represents a major step in the progression. Of course, we already know this, but I think it's useful to be reminded of what she's actually done.


9:28//[9:P15]//9:02 look past her infrequent 3000s last year.


That's part of the reason I posted the two times mentioned -- I know she has raced 3km infrequently, but those were the only two I could find. So, I posted them to see if (a) anyone might have more data on those times, and (b) if anyone knew of any other times she has run at this distance (or 3200/2 mile). I was trying to find her times, and these were the only two I could find. Happy to learn of more!
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Re: Mary Cain 9:02.10 3k (Oversized track) [overall HSR]

Postby ed gee » Sun Jan 13, 2013 8:35 pm

16 yo Zola Budd running 8:39 (more than 30 years ago) was impressive. 9:02 leads me to wonder why there are not more faster 3000m/2-milers in the US high school system.
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Re: Mary Cain 9:02.10 3k (Oversized track) [overall HSR]

Postby 26mi235 » Sun Jan 13, 2013 11:26 pm

And Budd gives us some perspective -- 8:39 is MUCH superior to 9:02. She was very good but her championship resume is very thin. Someone with a PR now a bunch slower (if still fast by US standards) does not seem automatically destined to be a world star and I think people ought to realize how big that expectation is.
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Re: Mary Cain 9:02.10 3k (Oversized track) [overall HSR]

Postby Brian » Mon Jan 14, 2013 12:54 am

As much fun as it is to speculate on this board, it's still important to remember the people involved here.

If Cain has indeed committed herself--on every level--to being on board with Salazar's long-range planning of her career, this run, as fine as it was, is mostly important to them as a guidepost in her present fitness and future development.

As such, I would bet big money that none of the principals involved care if her time is official, unofficial, or simply the rumored best neighborhood loop around the barn.

Ten years from now is what matters to these folks. Everything else is just stage development.

[Incredibly freeing, if you think about it.]
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Re: Mary Cain 9:02.10 3k (Oversized track) [overall HSR]

Postby Master Po » Mon Jan 14, 2013 3:31 am

ed gee wrote:16 yo Zola Budd running 8:39 (more than 30 years ago) was impressive. 9:02 leads me to wonder why there are not more faster 3000m/2-milers in the US high school system.


Zola Budd's performance was impressive -- an outlier -- at that time, she was only the second Youth category female (per IAAF lists) ever to run sub-9:00. The first was Lyudmila Sudak in 1981 (listed as UKR -- I think that would have been USSR at the time?) In any case, that entire history of Youth @ sub-9:00 only includes 33 athletes in 32 seasons, starting from the first. I think this is a rare accomplishment.

And, given that the list of 33 looks like this, geographically/nationally:
Kenya 13
Ethiopia 10
Japan 3
China 3
Ukraine, Romania, Finland, South Africa 1 each

The frequency has increased by decade, probably as a result of more opportunity for younger females to enter competitions, and high level competitions, e.g., World Youth:
1980s 3
1990s 10
2000s 16
2010s 4 so far

And while Cain seems likely to be the next to join this group, I don't know why I would expect to see more of this from USA runners at this age. It's a rare accomplishment in any case, and doesn't seem to be the pattern of development here, even in the best of circumstances. It isn't the pattern of athletic development in most countries, Kenya and Ethiopia aside.
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Re: Mary Cain 9:02.10 3k (Oversized track) [overall HSR]

Postby lionelp1 » Mon Jan 14, 2013 3:59 am

ed gee wrote:16 yo Zola Budd running 8:39 (more than 30 years ago) was impressive. 9:02 leads me to wonder why there are not more faster 3000m/2-milers in the US high school system.


Budd ran 8.39 in Durban, outdoors, when she was 16 years 11 months. McCain is a little younger but has a long way to go to that sort of territory.
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Re: Mary Cain 9:02.10 3k (Oversized track) [overall HSR]

Postby az2004 » Mon Jan 14, 2013 5:29 am

the first time i saw cai run was a frosh for her hs, the anchor leg on the dmr at the penn relyays

cain has very nice 800 speed, recall the indoor battles with ajee wilson, where cain gave her a run for her money, and we know what wilson did outdoors..

budd performance, outdoors, once cain gets into her speed work, how far sub 9 will she be capable

and i've seen her race live twice to get the feel the mile is her distance

how far sub 4:10 is her 1500 at the world champs this year

her top 400 speed is 56 from what i've seen

not many distance runners have that sort of speed

her xc is way better this year than last year, and 4:11 off last year??
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Re: Mary Cain 9:02.10 3k (Oversized track) [overall HSR]

Postby aaronk » Mon Jan 14, 2013 10:47 am

Mary is entered in the open two mile at Boston!!!!!!!!

I called them up, and they told me they WILL be timing her (and everyone else, of course!!!) at the 3000 meter mark!!

Thus, Mary COULD shatter BOTH records......officially!!!

Remember, Alan Webb got timed at his 1500 meter marks in his indoor and outdoor mile records....thus giving him FOUR records for the price of TWO!!!!

FANTASTIC news!!!!!!
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Re: Mary Cain 9:02.10 3k (Oversized track) [overall HSR]

Postby az2004 » Mon Jan 14, 2013 11:10 am

i suspect the world youth 1500 is her main goal. but what's the schedule there for the 3k


she has a 48 second 3k improvement over last year

off of 4:11 how low could she get

she did have a very serious xc season though, so lets see what salazar can get out of her
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Re: Mary Cain 9:02.10 3k (Oversized track) [overall HSR]

Postby BCBaroo » Mon Jan 14, 2013 11:18 am

I hadn't gotten on Tafn.com several days, so I'm just now hearing about this race now. and with all due respect to all the overwrought overthinking about track oversizing.. I would simply like to add...


HOLY FRIKKIN CRAP!
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Re: Mary Cain 9:02.10 3k (Oversized track) [overall HSR]

Postby aaronk » Mon Jan 14, 2013 11:22 am

BCBaroo wrote:I hadn't gotten on Tafn.com several days, so I'm just now hearing about this race now. and with all due respect to all the overwrought overthinking about track oversizing.. I would simply like to add...


HOLY FRIKKIN CRAP!


Kinda shocking, eh??
Well, if she lives up to the potential I THINK she has, then by season's end, that 9:02 may be the WORST time she runs all season!!!!!
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Re: Mary Cain 9:02.10 3k (Oversized track) [overall HSR]

Postby KevinM » Mon Jan 14, 2013 12:40 pm

Aaron - you would be well-served to read (and re-read) Brian's post.

Brian wrote:As much fun as it is to speculate on this board, it's still important to remember the people involved here.

If Cain has indeed committed herself--on every level--to being on board with Salazar's long-range planning of her career, this run, as fine as it was, is mostly important to them as a guidepost in her present fitness and future development.

As such, I would bet big money that none of the principals involved care if her time is official, unofficial, or simply the rumored best neighborhood loop around the barn.

Ten years from now is what matters to these folks. Everything else is just stage development.

[Incredibly freeing, if you think about it.]
.
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Re: Mary Cain 9:02.10 3k (Oversized track) [overall HSR]

Postby aaronk » Mon Jan 14, 2013 2:33 pm

I've read Brian's post....and I disagree with it!!
Mary herself said in an interview (in 2011 or 2012) that she wants to ALWAYS run fast.....for time.....and looks at times as more important to her than winning.

Not that she doesn't want to win too.....she does.....but she said she'd be happy with a fast time even if she finished back in the pack (paraphrased).

As for her 9:02, I think she DID see it as a fitness test.
She knew the time wouldn't be accepted as an official record.

Guess what?
She's entered in Boston.
Is that gonna be another "fitness test"??
Or was she entered in that meet to get the OFFICIAL records at 3K and 2 miles??

As for 10 years down the road....she signed on with Salazar in 2012....so that makes 10 years 2022!!
Unless things change, there won't be any big championship meets that year.
No OG and no WC!!

I really doubt she's going to wait until 2022 to shatter records left and right!!!
She won't be running that Boston 2 mile as a "fitness test"!!
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Re: Mary Cain 9:02.10 3k (Oversized track) [overall HSR]

Postby Dutra5 » Mon Jan 14, 2013 2:37 pm

aaronk wrote:I've read Brian's post....and I disagree with it!!


You'd have to understand it to disagree with it which you clearly seem a little short in doing.

Oh yeah....

...!!! :!:
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Re: Mary Cain 9:02.10 3k (Oversized track) [overall HSR]

Postby TN1965 » Mon Jan 14, 2013 3:09 pm

aaronk wrote:Now let me pose a hypothetical.

A high school BOY (unnamed) runs a 9.90 100 on some OUTdoor track this spring.
But the announcer then says the wind was slightly over the limit at 2.1, so it's NOT a HSR!!!
BUT.......everyone says, Who cares??.....it's still the fastest 100 EVER by a HS boy!!
And the kid is praised to High Heaven by one and all.

Then the record books come out.
NOT ONE of them list that 9.90 on their Top 40 lists, or on their All Time lists, or in their HS Records section!!

The ONLY place that GREAT 9.90 is listed is BELOW these lists.....with the appending "WIND-AIDED MARK" attached to it!!!

Need I say more??


When you enter a race, you have no idea whether the wind will be within the legal limit. You may not even know that until after the race.

When you enter a race, you know whether the track is oversized or not.

There is a HUGE difference between the two cases.
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Re: Mary Cain 9:02.10 3k (Oversized track) [overall HSR]

Postby Conor Dary » Mon Jan 14, 2013 3:49 pm

TN1965 wrote:
aaronk wrote:Now let me pose a hypothetical.

A high school BOY (unnamed) runs a 9.90 100 on some OUTdoor track this spring.
But the announcer then says the wind was slightly over the limit at 2.1, so it's NOT a HSR!!!
BUT.......everyone says, Who cares??.....it's still the fastest 100 EVER by a HS boy!!
And the kid is praised to High Heaven by one and all.

Then the record books come out.
NOT ONE of them list that 9.90 on their Top 40 lists, or on their All Time lists, or in their HS Records section!!

The ONLY place that GREAT 9.90 is listed is BELOW these lists.....with the appending "WIND-AIDED MARK" attached to it!!!

Need I say more??


When you enter a race, you have no idea whether the wind will be within the legal limit. You may not even know that until after the race.

When you enter a race, you know whether the track is oversized or not.

There is a HUGE difference between the two cases.


Is someone moonlighting from The Onion?
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Re: Mary Cain 9:02.10 3k (Oversized track) [overall HSR]

Postby 26mi235 » Mon Jan 14, 2013 5:27 pm

aaronk wrote:I've read Brian's post....and I disagree with it!!
Mary herself said in an interview (in 2011 or 2012) that she wants to ALWAYS run fast.....for time.....and looks at times as more important to her than winning.

...
And that is why she is now working with someone that can help temper the perspective of someone 15 years old.



As for 10 years down the road....she signed on with Salazar in 2012....so that makes 10 years 2022!!
Unless things change, there won't be any big championship meets that year.
No OG and no WC!!

I really doubt she's going to wait until 2022 to shatter records left and right!!!
She won't be running that Boston 2 mile as a "fitness test"!!


You really are that focused on a number 10, as opposed to 10 +/- 4 years; if you cannot read the tea leaves better than that, you should probably not post as often about the issue. We get the message the first time; after a while it gets a bit much.
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Re: Mary Cain 9:02.10 3k (Oversized track) [overall HSR]

Postby bushop » Mon Jan 14, 2013 6:53 pm

aaronk wrote:Mary herself said in an interview (in 2011 or 2012) that she wants to ALWAYS run fast.....for time.....and looks at times as more important to her than winning.

This interview has been quoted many times.
Who conducted the interview?
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Re: Mary Cain 9:02.10 3k (Oversized track) [overall HSR]

Postby Brian » Mon Jan 14, 2013 8:04 pm

aaronk wrote:I've read Brian's post....and I disagree with it!!
Mary herself said in an interview (in 2011 or 2012) that she wants to ALWAYS run fast.....for time.....and looks at times as more important to her than winning.

Not that she doesn't want to win too.....she does.....but she said she'd be happy with a fast time even if she finished back in the pack (paraphrased).

As for her 9:02, I think she DID see it as a fitness test.
She knew the time wouldn't be accepted as an official record.

Guess what?
She's entered in Boston.
Is that gonna be another "fitness test"??
Or was she entered in that meet to get the OFFICIAL records at 3K and 2 miles??

As for 10 years down the road....she signed on with Salazar in 2012....so that makes 10 years 2022!!
Unless things change, there won't be any big championship meets that year.
No OG and no WC!!


I really doubt she's going to wait until 2022 to shatter records left and right!!!
She won't be running that Boston 2 mile as a "fitness test"!!


Aaron, how old are you? I don't mean that derogatorily; age is a matter of years on this planet but also education and experience. [Ripping someone who is "younger" than you in these areas is a form of bullying, I believe, and I don't want to do that here.]

No matter. I'm not going to get into an argument with you on this but I will clarify my statement:

"10 years" is a euphemism for "the future." It is not meant to highlight a specific date. [If memory serves, I think Salazar himself used the term in a recent T&FN interview to show how he and Rupp approached Rupp's career from day 1 when Rupp was in high school and how that long-term approach has paid off. (He might have said something like "...ten, fifteen years down the road..." )] It means looking at things in terms of The Big Picture.

[Cont.]
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Re: Mary Cain 9:02.10 3k (Oversized track) [overall HSR]

Postby Brian » Mon Jan 14, 2013 8:09 pm

[Cont.]
You've heard of the phrase "going from Point A to Point B" perhaps? Well, your basic high school athlete--especially one brought up in a world of the American pro-sports attitude of Instant Gratification--wants to go from Point A to Point B and they want to have done it yesterday [i.e, they can't wait to do it].

A good coach knows that it isn't a matter of only going from Point A to Point B. Looking at The Big Picture, a coach--unless they are a self-serving jerk who uses a meatgrinder approach (which makes them a bad coach, IMHO) knows that an athlete's career is a matter of going from Point A to Point Z. In looking at the athlete's entire career, Point A to Point B is merely the first of many checkpoints along the way. A marathon, not a sprint.

Again, most high schoolers don't have the brain development to make decisions based on this principle (most people don't have this brain development fully until their early-mid 20's). To protect the athlete from themselves and those "bad coaches" that exploit rather than develop, I can fully understand why some parents would entrust their potentially "blue-chip" son or daughter to a proven coach who cares more about the long-term than looking good right away. [Think of all the grief Salazar took about his (still learning) methods all the way up until Farah and Rupp crossed the 10,000 meter finish line in London. It takes someone special to ignore the armchair generals criticizing him at every turn for years; that's the guy I'd want guiding my kid...!]

I do see your point, Aaron. And I'm sure you're correct with Cain's feeling about wanting to run fast--who doesn't when you're that age? But if, since that interview you mentioned in 2011 or 2012, she has committed herself to Salazar's long-term approach, she either realizes now or will soon that fast times come with optimum fitness and that fitness needs to progress accordingly in order to have that success/fast times on every respective level of a potentially world-class athlete's career. [A 3:59 mile gets you raves in high school; it doesn't even get you a spot on the line at Oslo when you're 25.]

Any one with talent can run fast. But it's the person who can do so on a given day that walks away with a championship. To do that takes a good program; good coaching.

[Cont.]
Last edited by Brian on Mon Jan 14, 2013 8:13 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: Mary Cain 9:02.10 3k (Oversized track) [overall HSR]

Postby Brian » Mon Jan 14, 2013 8:10 pm

[Cont.]

Athletes and coaches bring certain things to the relationship. These things overlap at times, sure. But roughly, the athlete's role is one of execution of the training program while the coach's role is planning the program and the ongoing evaluation of same. [In time, with the athlete's greater maturity and experience, these parameters ideally shift to more of a partnership.] In other words--as I say a lot--the athlete works at it mostly from the neck down while the coach works at it mostly from the neck up. [IMHO, this a big reason why athletes who try to coach themselves are almost never as successful as athlete's with (good) coaches.]

Whatever happens with Cain, I think she is in fine hands and I applaud her and her family for wishing to do things as well as possible in The Big Picture.
.
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Re: Mary Cain 9:02.10 3k (Oversized track) [overall HSR]

Postby rsb2 » Mon Jan 14, 2013 9:33 pm

Well said, Brian.
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Re: Mary Cain 9:02.10 3k (Oversized track) [overall HSR]

Postby aaronk » Mon Jan 14, 2013 9:39 pm

bushop wrote:
aaronk wrote:Mary herself said in an interview (in 2011 or 2012) that she wants to ALWAYS run fast.....for time.....and looks at times as more important to her than winning.

This interview has been quoted many times.
Who conducted the interview?


I found it.
It was a MaxPreps interview by Joseph Santoliquito, held on May 22, 2012, after her 4:39.28 Penn mile with that 62.5 last lap.
Here is the VERBATIM quote.....from Mary herself.

"I'm very much of a time runner, trying to get down and build my strength.
If I get a fast time, and I'm third, I'm still very excited.
My goal has always been to get faster, and for me, improving at the Penn Relays is what I wanted to do.
Every race for me is about running faster to see what I can do.
I think a lot of runners look much more at who's the best when they line up.
I try to focus on getting my best time."

Those are Mary's own words, soon after turning 16, and maybe 3 months before signing on with Salazar.
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Re: Mary Cain 9:02.10 3k (Oversized track) [overall HSR]

Postby 26mi235 » Mon Jan 14, 2013 9:44 pm

aaronk wrote:Those are Mary's own words, soon after turning 16, and maybe 3 months before signing on with Salazar.


That is the whole point, they may have NOTHING to do with her current, more forward-looking perspective.
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Re: Mary Cain 9:02.10 3k (Oversized track) [overall HSR]

Postby az2004 » Tue Jan 15, 2013 6:06 am

cain ran 9:02 in the first race of her season NOT xc...

suspect budd 8:39 was not her first race of the seasom

cain base speed is waybetter than budd ever was

cain better distance is probabaly 1500, so i likecain chances going faster than 4:11

don;t ask me about budd's politics thought
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Re: Mary Cain 9:02.10 3k (Oversized track) [overall HSR]

Postby Marlow » Tue Jan 15, 2013 7:25 am

As an aside, I think Baxter won't touch Cain in track. XC yes, track, no.
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Re: Mary Cain 9:02.10 3k (Oversized track) [overall HSR]

Postby az2004 » Tue Jan 15, 2013 7:48 am

i saw baxter in the mud in portland, she's more longer distance

but i see baxter as having upside just not the sort of upside cain has

cain has scary speed , let's just say she's more a female jim ryun talent

and salazar has shown he can get the most out of it...

the boston meet should be interesting as some name ethiopian will run and cain will be running for 2nd at best, or maybe 3rd or 4th, depending of how many show up
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Re: Mary Cain 9:02.10 3k (Oversized track) [overall HSR]

Postby TN1965 » Tue Jan 15, 2013 9:15 am

Marlow wrote:As an aside, I think Baxter won't touch Cain in track. XC yes, track, no.


Even if they compete in 5000?
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Re: Mary Cain 9:02.10 3k (Oversized track) [overall HSR]

Postby aaronk » Tue Jan 15, 2013 9:35 am

TN1965 wrote:
Marlow wrote:As an aside, I think Baxter won't touch Cain in track. XC yes, track, no.


Even if they compete in 5000?


Mary has been compared (by others, not me!!!!) to another Mary.....Decker, by name!!Which is apt, IMHO, because I believe Mary (Cain, that is!!) has unlimited potential at EVERY distance from 800 to 10,000 meters!!!

Decker(Slaney) did!!
Her PR's were:
1:56.90
2:34.65
3:57.12
4:16.71
5:32.7
8:25.83
15:06.53
31:35.3

Those are all outdoor times.
And she ran the 5K and 10K infrequently, so probably could have gone a LOT faster in both!!

Over time.....and not THAT much time......maybe by the time she's out of her teens (less than 4 years!!).....Mary Cain's PR's might match those of Decker Slaney's!!

Across the board.....from 800 to 10,000!!
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Re: Mary Cain 9:02.10 3k (Oversized track) [overall HSR]

Postby az2004 » Tue Jan 15, 2013 10:10 am

i have seen cain since frosh year..

for me her better distance is

mile
800
3k

her base speed is exceptional


cain gets the ethiopians in boston

400 Meter Dash 55.74 not a bad 400 and att penn relays she did 62.5 last lap
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Re: Mary Cain 9:02.10 3k (Oversized track) [overall HSR]

Postby 26mi235 » Tue Jan 15, 2013 10:18 am

aaronk wrote:Decker(Slaney) did!!
Her PR's were:

4:16.71
Those are all outdoor times.


Was this her Astrodome (?) mark made on a super-sized indoor track of non-standard configuration? I do not remember much about that race, but retain the memory that she was denied a WR because of the conditions. I remember the time as about 4:17.
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Re: Mary Cain 9:02.10 3k (Oversized track) [overall HSR]

Postby tandfman » Tue Jan 15, 2013 10:43 am

Decker's time at the Astrodome was 4:17.55. It was on an oversized, banked indoor track; marks on that track could not then and cannot now be recognized for record purposes.
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Re: Mary Cain 9:02.10 3k (Oversized track) [overall HSR]

Postby Marlow » Tue Jan 15, 2013 12:18 pm

tandfman wrote:Decker's time at the Astrodome was 4:17.55. It was on an oversized, banked indoor track; marks on that track could not then and cannot now be recognized for record purposes.

Cept'n by this heah place! :D
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Re: Mary Cain 9:02.10 3k (Oversized track) [overall HSR]

Postby gh » Tue Jan 15, 2013 12:43 pm

T&FN doesn't recognize marks on Astrodome oval as records in any category.
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Re: Mary Cain 9:02.10 3k (Oversized track) [overall HSR]

Postby aaronk » Tue Jan 15, 2013 1:36 pm

Yes, she ran 4:17+ indoors, but.....
the 4:16.71 was at the Weltklasse in Zurich on August 21, 1985.
Second and third in that Zurich race were.....
Maricica Puica.......4:17.33
Zola Budd............ 4:17.57.

Yep, that was the race that Budd, then 19, ran her fastest mile!!
Quite a mile race, eh??
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Re: Mary Cain 9:02.10 3k (Oversized track) [overall HSR]

Postby doug5321 » Wed Jan 16, 2013 1:56 am

we have some very young girls who are very good, 3 years younger than cain is daesha rogers.

rogers ran on her schools 3:43 relay, ran a 2:07 for 800, ran a 4:54 mile, got 2nd in state at 3 mile cross country, also won one of the states big cross country meet with one shoe on one shoe off she lost it in the first 50 meters of the 3 mile race. in the 800 she goes out in 58-60 and holds on, meaning she has not learned the advantages of even pacing yet.

rogers was born in 1999 and will graduate high school in 2017

so sarah baxter, mary cain, daesha rogers all amazing young talents, i hope they pan out.
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Re: Mary Cain 9:02.10 3k (Oversized track) [overall HSR]

Postby az2004 » Wed Jan 16, 2013 7:01 am

http://www.flotrack.org/coverage/248558 ... ampionship

people are forgetting ajee wilson pedigree too world junior 800 champ

she's agot the sort of kick youn need to perform at the elite level
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Re: Mary Cain 9:02.10 3k (Oversized track) [overall HSR]

Postby unclezadok » Wed Jan 16, 2013 1:22 pm

I suspect this 3000m by Mary Cain was just the hors d'ourves to her season. That doesn't look right. You know, a little snack thing before the season, like a little meatball or cheese wedge. Of course it was a very fast meatball.
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