Mary Cain 9:02.10 3k (Oversized track) [overall HSR]

[bushop]

The latter word connotes a status that I don't think T&FN claims.

They may not (unless in FPM), but the rest of us do. REALLY and DE FACTO trump 'official' every time, esp. when the 'officials' haven't a clue.

In a similar sense the T&F News All-American is a true HS All-American.

[aaronk]

... a normal progression for a kid her age

Based on what?

Personal observation and study.
That's all!

I can't say it happens for everybody, girls OR boys, but it's happened often enough.....a RAPID progression from one year to the next.....in their teen years.

Yes, I KNOW HS girls, in particular, progress in huge leaps early on, then either plateau or REgress!!
Maybe Mary Cain has ALREADY reached that "plateau".

Look at the HS lists from year to year.....going WAY back!!
I spoke of Lindgren earlier.
His 11th grade mile was something like 4:06.
He improved to 4:01.

Even Jim Ryun, who had run a sub-4 in the 11th grade, improved that time by almost 4 seconds!!

And Mary herself went from a 4:17.8 in her frosh year all the way to smashing Hasay's mark with her 4:11.01 just one year later.
Who's to say her "natural progression" won't give her ANOTHER 6 second improvement in the 1500....thus my prediction earlier of a POSSIBLE 4:05!!

Oh yes, almost forgot!!
How many young (??) Kenyans......boys and girls.....seem to come out of nowhere to run times like 14:40 or under 31:00 for girls, and steeples in the 8:05 range, or 5K's in under 13??

LOTS!!

[Master Po]

I have no idea what a normal or typical progression should look like for Cain or any elite athlete, but I am interested in Cain's actual progression at this distance in her very young career. I know she has raced 800 & 1500/mile more frequently, but I have seen these times mentioned, though I don't know anything about their circumstances:

2011
9:28.6

2012
9:32.2

Assuming these are correct, 2013 already represents a major step in the progression. Of course, we already know this, but I think it's useful to be reminded of what she's actually done.

[kuha]

Lindgren; Ryun; etc.

By definition, ultra-outliers provide no guidance as to what a "normal" progression may be, since they are not normal talents to begin with. If you're going to look at great 17 year olds (or whatever), then you have to look at a truly representative sample (including the ones who don't improve much or at all) and not just cherry pick the data points that you like.

[Marlow]

Normal progression?! There is no such thing. Even if you took 'average' progression from a large data-pool, there'd be very few that would actually follow that model and NONE of the out-liers would be even close to it.

[JumboElliott]

The real question is: What's her best distance?

[26mi235]

I have no idea what a normal or typical progression should look like for Cain or any elite athlete, but I am interested in Cain's actual progression at this distance in her very young career. I know she has raced 800 & 1500/mile more frequently, but I have seen these times mentioned, though I don't know anything about their circumstances:

2011
9:28.6

2012
9:32.2

Assuming these are correct, 2013 already represents a major step in the progression. Of course, we already know this, but I think it's useful to be reminded of what she's actually done.

9:28//[9:P15]//9:02 look past her infrequent 3000s last year.

[Master Po]

I have no idea what a normal or typical progression should look like for Cain or any elite athlete, but I am interested in Cain's actual progression at this distance in her very young career. I know she has raced 800 & 1500/mile more frequently, but I have seen these times mentioned, though I don't know anything about their circumstances:

2011
9:28.6

2012
9:32.2

Assuming these are correct, 2013 already represents a major step in the progression. Of course, we already know this, but I think it's useful to be reminded of what she's actually done.

9:28//[9:P15]//9:02 look past her infrequent 3000s last year.

That's part of the reason I posted the two times mentioned -- I know she has raced 3km infrequently, but those were the only two I could find. So, I posted them to see if (a) anyone might have more data on those times, and (b) if anyone knew of any other times she has run at this distance (or 3200/2 mile). I was trying to find her times, and these were the only two I could find. Happy to learn of more!

[ed gee]

16 yo Zola Budd running 8:39 (more than 30 years ago) was impressive. 9:02 leads me to wonder why there are not more faster 3000m/2-milers in the US high school system.

[26mi235]

And Budd gives us some perspective -- 8:39 is MUCH superior to 9:02. She was very good but her championship resume is very thin. Someone with a PR now a bunch slower (if still fast by US standards) does not seem automatically destined to be a world star and I think people ought to realize how big that expectation is.

[Brian]

As much fun as it is to speculate on this board, it's still important to remember the people involved here.

If Cain has indeed committed herself--on every level--to being on board with Salazar's long-range planning of her career, this run, as fine as it was, is mostly important to them as a guidepost in her present fitness and future development.

As such, I would bet big money that none of the principals involved care if her time is official, unofficial, or simply the rumored best neighborhood loop around the barn.

Ten years from now is what matters to these folks. Everything else is just stage development.

[Incredibly freeing, if you think about it.]
.

[Master Po]

16 yo Zola Budd running 8:39 (more than 30 years ago) was impressive. 9:02 leads me to wonder why there are not more faster 3000m/2-milers in the US high school system.

Zola Budd's performance was impressive -- an outlier -- at that time, she was only the second Youth category female (per IAAF lists) ever to run sub-9:00. The first was Lyudmila Sudak in 1981 (listed as UKR -- I think that would have been USSR at the time?) In any case, that entire history of Youth @ sub-9:00 only includes 33 athletes in 32 seasons, starting from the first. I think this is a rare accomplishment.

And, given that the list of 33 looks like this, geographically/nationally:
Kenya 13
Ethiopia 10
Japan 3
China 3
Ukraine, Romania, Finland, South Africa 1 each

The frequency has increased by decade, probably as a result of more opportunity for younger females to enter competitions, and high level competitions, e.g., World Youth:
1980s 3
1990s 10
2000s 16
2010s 4 so far

And while Cain seems likely to be the next to join this group, I don't know why I would expect to see more of this from USA runners at this age. It's a rare accomplishment in any case, and doesn't seem to be the pattern of development here, even in the best of circumstances. It isn't the pattern of athletic development in most countries, Kenya and Ethiopia aside.

[lionelp1]

16 yo Zola Budd running 8:39 (more than 30 years ago) was impressive. 9:02 leads me to wonder why there are not more faster 3000m/2-milers in the US high school system.

Budd ran 8.39 in Durban, outdoors, when she was 16 years 11 months. McCain is a little younger but has a long way to go to that sort of territory.

[az2004]

the first time i saw cai run was a frosh for her hs, the anchor leg on the dmr at the penn relyays

cain has very nice 800 speed, recall the indoor battles with ajee wilson, where cain gave her a run for her money, and we know what wilson did outdoors..

budd performance, outdoors, once cain gets into her speed work, how far sub 9 will she be capable

and i've seen her race live twice to get the feel the mile is her distance

how far sub 4:10 is her 1500 at the world champs this year

her top 400 speed is 56 from what i've seen

not many distance runners have that sort of speed

her xc is way better this year than last year, and 4:11 off last year??

[aaronk]

Mary is entered in the open two mile at Boston!!!!!!!!

I called them up, and they told me they WILL be timing her (and everyone else, of course!!!) at the 3000 meter mark!!

Thus, Mary COULD shatter BOTH records......officially!!!

Remember, Alan Webb got timed at his 1500 meter marks in his indoor and outdoor mile records....thus giving him FOUR records for the price of TWO!!!!

FANTASTIC news!!!!!!

[az2004]

i suspect the world youth 1500 is her main goal. but what's the schedule there for the 3k


she has a 48 second 3k improvement over last year

off of 4:11 how low could she get

she did have a very serious xc season though, so lets see what salazar can get out of her

[BCBaroo]

I hadn't gotten on Tafn.com several days, so I'm just now hearing about this race now. and with all due respect to all the overwrought overthinking about track oversizing.. I would simply like to add...


HOLY FRIKKIN CRAP!

[aaronk]

I hadn't gotten on Tafn.com several days, so I'm just now hearing about this race now. and with all due respect to all the overwrought overthinking about track oversizing.. I would simply like to add...


HOLY FRIKKIN CRAP!

Kinda shocking, eh??
Well, if she lives up to the potential I THINK she has, then by season's end, that 9:02 may be the WORST time she runs all season!!!!!

[KevinM]

Aaron - you would be well-served to read (and re-read) Brian's post.

As much fun as it is to speculate on this board, it's still important to remember the people involved here.

If Cain has indeed committed herself--on every level--to being on board with Salazar's long-range planning of her career, this run, as fine as it was, is mostly important to them as a guidepost in her present fitness and future development.

As such, I would bet big money that none of the principals involved care if her time is official, unofficial, or simply the rumored best neighborhood loop around the barn.

Ten years from now is what matters to these folks. Everything else is just stage development.

[Incredibly freeing, if you think about it.]
.

[aaronk]

I've read Brian's post....and I disagree with it!!
Mary herself said in an interview (in 2011 or 2012) that she wants to ALWAYS run fast.....for time.....and looks at times as more important to her than winning.

Not that she doesn't want to win too.....she does.....but she said she'd be happy with a fast time even if she finished back in the pack (paraphrased).

As for her 9:02, I think she DID see it as a fitness test.
She knew the time wouldn't be accepted as an official record.

Guess what?
She's entered in Boston.
Is that gonna be another "fitness test"??
Or was she entered in that meet to get the OFFICIAL records at 3K and 2 miles??

As for 10 years down the road....she signed on with Salazar in 2012....so that makes 10 years 2022!!
Unless things change, there won't be any big championship meets that year.
No OG and no WC!!

I really doubt she's going to wait until 2022 to shatter records left and right!!!
She won't be running that Boston 2 mile as a "fitness test"!!

[Dutra5]

I've read Brian's post....and I disagree with it!!

You'd have to understand it to disagree with it which you clearly seem a little short in doing.

Oh yeah....

...!!!

[TN1965]

Now let me pose a hypothetical.

A high school BOY (unnamed) runs a 9.90 100 on some OUTdoor track this spring.
But the announcer then says the wind was slightly over the limit at 2.1, so it's NOT a HSR!!!
BUT.......everyone says, Who cares??.....it's still the fastest 100 EVER by a HS boy!!
And the kid is praised to High Heaven by one and all.

Then the record books come out.
NOT ONE of them list that 9.90 on their Top 40 lists, or on their All Time lists, or in their HS Records section!!

The ONLY place that GREAT 9.90 is listed is BELOW these lists.....with the appending "WIND-AIDED MARK" attached to it!!!

Need I say more??

When you enter a race, you have no idea whether the wind will be within the legal limit. You may not even know that until after the race.

When you enter a race, you know whether the track is oversized or not.

There is a HUGE difference between the two cases.

[Conor Dary]

Now let me pose a hypothetical.

A high school BOY (unnamed) runs a 9.90 100 on some OUTdoor track this spring.
But the announcer then says the wind was slightly over the limit at 2.1, so it's NOT a HSR!!!
BUT.......everyone says, Who cares??.....it's still the fastest 100 EVER by a HS boy!!
And the kid is praised to High Heaven by one and all.

Then the record books come out.
NOT ONE of them list that 9.90 on their Top 40 lists, or on their All Time lists, or in their HS Records section!!

The ONLY place that GREAT 9.90 is listed is BELOW these lists.....with the appending "WIND-AIDED MARK" attached to it!!!

Need I say more??

When you enter a race, you have no idea whether the wind will be within the legal limit. You may not even know that until after the race.

When you enter a race, you know whether the track is oversized or not.

There is a HUGE difference between the two cases.

Is someone moonlighting from The Onion?

[26mi235]

I've read Brian's post....and I disagree with it!!
Mary herself said in an interview (in 2011 or 2012) that she wants to ALWAYS run fast.....for time.....and looks at times as more important to her than winning.

...
And that is why she is now working with someone that can help temper the perspective of someone 15 years old.

As for 10 years down the road....she signed on with Salazar in 2012....so that makes 10 years 2022!!
Unless things change, there won't be any big championship meets that year.
No OG and no WC!!

I really doubt she's going to wait until 2022 to shatter records left and right!!!
She won't be running that Boston 2 mile as a "fitness test"!!

You really are that focused on a number 10, as opposed to 10 +/- 4 years; if you cannot read the tea leaves better than that, you should probably not post as often about the issue. We get the message the first time; after a while it gets a bit much.

[bushop]

Mary herself said in an interview (in 2011 or 2012) that she wants to ALWAYS run fast.....for time.....and looks at times as more important to her than winning.

This interview has been quoted many times.
Who conducted the interview?

[Brian]

I've read Brian's post....and I disagree with it!!
Mary herself said in an interview (in 2011 or 2012) that she wants to ALWAYS run fast.....for time.....and looks at times as more important to her than winning.

Not that she doesn't want to win too.....she does.....but she said she'd be happy with a fast time even if she finished back in the pack (paraphrased).

As for her 9:02, I think she DID see it as a fitness test.
She knew the time wouldn't be accepted as an official record.

Guess what?
She's entered in Boston.
Is that gonna be another "fitness test"??
Or was she entered in that meet to get the OFFICIAL records at 3K and 2 miles??

As for 10 years down the road....she signed on with Salazar in 2012....so that makes 10 years 2022!!
Unless things change, there won't be any big championship meets that year.
No OG and no WC!!

I really doubt she's going to wait until 2022 to shatter records left and right!!!
She won't be running that Boston 2 mile as a "fitness test"!!

Aaron, how old are you? I don't mean that derogatorily; age is a matter of years on this planet but also education and experience. [Ripping someone who is "younger" than you in these areas is a form of bullying, I believe, and I don't want to do that here.]

No matter. I'm not going to get into an argument with you on this but I will clarify my statement:

"10 years" is a euphemism for "the future." It is not meant to highlight a specific date. [If memory serves, I think Salazar himself used the term in a recent T&FN interview to show how he and Rupp approached Rupp's career from day 1 when Rupp was in high school and how that long-term approach has paid off. (He might have said something like "...ten, fifteen years down the road..." )] It means looking at things in terms of The Big Picture.

[Cont.]

[Brian]

[Cont.]
You've heard of the phrase "going from Point A to Point B" perhaps? Well, your basic high school athlete--especially one brought up in a world of the American pro-sports attitude of Instant Gratification--wants to go from Point A to Point B and they want to have done it yesterday [i.e, they can't wait to do it].

A good coach knows that it isn't a matter of only going from Point A to Point B. Looking at The Big Picture, a coach--unless they are a self-serving jerk who uses a meatgrinder approach (which makes them a bad coach, IMHO) knows that an athlete's career is a matter of going from Point A to Point Z. In looking at the athlete's entire career, Point A to Point B is merely the first of many checkpoints along the way. A marathon, not a sprint.

Again, most high schoolers don't have the brain development to make decisions based on this principle (most people don't have this brain development fully until their early-mid 20's). To protect the athlete from themselves and those "bad coaches" that exploit rather than develop, I can fully understand why some parents would entrust their potentially "blue-chip" son or daughter to a proven coach who cares more about the long-term than looking good right away. [Think of all the grief Salazar took about his (still learning) methods all the way up until Farah and Rupp crossed the 10,000 meter finish line in London. It takes someone special to ignore the armchair generals criticizing him at every turn for years; that's the guy I'd want guiding my kid...!]

I do see your point, Aaron. And I'm sure you're correct with Cain's feeling about wanting to run fast--who doesn't when you're that age? But if, since that interview you mentioned in 2011 or 2012, she has committed herself to Salazar's long-term approach, she either realizes now or will soon that fast times come with optimum fitness and that fitness needs to progress accordingly in order to have that success/fast times on every respective level of a potentially world-class athlete's career. [A 3:59 mile gets you raves in high school; it doesn't even get you a spot on the line at Oslo when you're 25.]

Any one with talent can run fast. But it's the person who can do so on a given day that walks away with a championship. To do that takes a good program; good coaching.

[Cont.]

[Brian]

[Cont.]

Athletes and coaches bring certain things to the relationship. These things overlap at times, sure. But roughly, the athlete's role is one of execution of the training program while the coach's role is planning the program and the ongoing evaluation of same. [In time, with the athlete's greater maturity and experience, these parameters ideally shift to more of a partnership.] In other words--as I say a lot--the athlete works at it mostly from the neck down while the coach works at it mostly from the neck up. [IMHO, this a big reason why athletes who try to coach themselves are almost never as successful as athlete's with (good) coaches.]

Whatever happens with Cain, I think she is in fine hands and I applaud her and her family for wishing to do things as well as possible in The Big Picture.
.

[rsb2]

Well said, Brian.

[aaronk]

Mary herself said in an interview (in 2011 or 2012) that she wants to ALWAYS run fast.....for time.....and looks at times as more important to her than winning.

This interview has been quoted many times.
Who conducted the interview?

I found it.
It was a MaxPreps interview by Joseph Santoliquito, held on May 22, 2012, after her 4:39.28 Penn mile with that 62.5 last lap.
Here is the VERBATIM quote.....from Mary herself.

"I'm very much of a time runner, trying to get down and build my strength.
If I get a fast time, and I'm third, I'm still very excited.
My goal has always been to get faster, and for me, improving at the Penn Relays is what I wanted to do.
Every race for me is about running faster to see what I can do.
I think a lot of runners look much more at who's the best when they line up.
I try to focus on getting my best time."

Those are Mary's own words, soon after turning 16, and maybe 3 months before signing on with Salazar.

[26mi235]

Those are Mary's own words, soon after turning 16, and maybe 3 months before signing on with Salazar.

That is the whole point, they may have NOTHING to do with her current, more forward-looking perspective.

[az2004]

cain ran 9:02 in the first race of her season NOT xc...

suspect budd 8:39 was not her first race of the seasom

cain base speed is waybetter than budd ever was

cain better distance is probabaly 1500, so i likecain chances going faster than 4:11

don;t ask me about budd's politics thought

[Marlow]

As an aside, I think Baxter won't touch Cain in track. XC yes, track, no.

[az2004]

i saw baxter in the mud in portland, she's more longer distance

but i see baxter as having upside just not the sort of upside cain has

cain has scary speed , let's just say she's more a female jim ryun talent

and salazar has shown he can get the most out of it...

the boston meet should be interesting as some name ethiopian will run and cain will be running for 2nd at best, or maybe 3rd or 4th, depending of how many show up

[TN1965]

As an aside, I think Baxter won't touch Cain in track. XC yes, track, no.

Even if they compete in 5000?