Mary Cain 9:02.10 3k (Oversized track) [overall HSR]


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Mary Cain 9:02.10 3k (Oversized track) [overall HSR]

Postby dj » Sat Jan 12, 2013 4:59 pm

run at U.Washington:

http://www.gohuskies.com/livestats/c-tr ... /index.htm

Indoor HS record is 9:17.4 by Melody Fairchild, 1991, en route to her 2M HSR 9:55.92.
Outdoor HS record is Lynn Bjorklund's 9:08.6 from 1975.
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Re: Mayr Cain 9:02.10 3k (Oversized track)

Postby unclezadok » Sat Jan 12, 2013 5:35 pm

Nice run. I was at the meet where Melody Fairchild set the official record--flat 200m track at Syracuse.
Mary was probably so happy to be running on any kind of track instead of through the boonies that she could have run this on a 160Y splintery board facility.
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Re: Mayr Cain 9:02.10 3k (Oversized track)

Postby polevaultpower » Sat Jan 12, 2013 5:54 pm

I was there and actually watched the race, since one of the athletes in my club was the rabbit. Cain ran in the lead pack the whole race, but I don't think she led until the last 60 meters or so when she outckicked the other two girls in front and had a very easy and fast looking finish. WOW 8-)
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Re: Mary Cain 9:02.10 3k (Oversized track)

Postby aaronk » Sat Jan 12, 2013 6:04 pm

Great time....but a wasted effort.
If she had run the SAME time on a 200 meter banked track ANYWHERE in the world, she'd now be the OFFICIAL High School Record holder!!!

All she got out of this was a time.
She could have timed herself on a dirt track......with only her mother there to time her!!

Hopefully, she'll run the same time....or FASTER.....on a LEGITIMATE track......sometime during the indoor season!!!
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Re: Mary Cain 9:02.10 3k (Oversized track)

Postby gh » Sat Jan 12, 2013 6:05 pm

Forget the indoor nature of the race. Assuming the track was properly curbed/coned, there's no reason that T&FN won't ratify this as the overall High School Record, surpassing the ancient 9:08.6 run by Lynn Bjorklund way back in '75.

Like the IAAF (and unlike the USATF dinosaurs), T&FN doesn't care if there was a roof overhead. If it's a properly measured track with no banking, then it's the overall record, plain and simple.
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Re: Mary Cain 9:02.10 3k (Oversized track)

Postby aaronk » Sat Jan 12, 2013 6:12 pm

gh wrote:Forget the indoor nature of the race. Assuming the track was properly curbed/coned, there's no reason that T&FN won't ratify this as the overall High School Record, surpassing the ancient 9:08.6 run by Lynn Bjorklund way back in '75.

Like the IAAF (and unlike the USATF dinosaurs), T&FN doesn't care if there was a roof overhead. If it's a properly measured track with no banking, then it's the overall record, plain and simple.


Then why doesn't TAFWA All Time World indoor list edition of 2011, or the FAST Annual of 2012, or other sources, list the 15:01 5K that Jenny Simpson ran awhile back on that SAME track.....as the Collegiate record....or even on the all-time collegiate lists.....or all time American lists???
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Re: Mary Cain 9:02.10 3k (Oversized track) [overall HSR]

Postby gh » Sat Jan 12, 2013 6:15 pm

what rules they choose to use are their own concern.
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Re: Mary Cain 9:02.10 3k (Oversized track) [overall HSR]

Postby gh » Sat Jan 12, 2013 6:34 pm

More good numbers.

Cain's mark converts to 9:45.47 for 2M (the HSR is 9:54.22 by Aisling Cuffe)

and converts to 9:42.06 for 3200m (the all-time fastest is 9:48.59 by Kim Mortensen)

All in all, a truly WOW kind of run
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Re: Mary Cain 9:02.10 3k (Oversized track) [overall HSR]

Postby aaronk » Sat Jan 12, 2013 6:50 pm

gh wrote:More good numbers.

Cain's mark converts to 9:45.47 for 2M (the HSR is 9:54.22 by Aisling Cuffe)

and converts to 9:42.06 for 3200m (the all-time fastest is 9:48.59 by Kim Mortensen)

All in all, a truly WOW kind of run


Sorry to always (Well, almost always!! LOL) disagree with you, gh!!
But look at what "polevaultpower" said earlier....about her finish being fast and easy looking.

So, IMHO (Not worth a damn, I know!!), she probably WOULD have finished those last 218 meters in 32-34 seconds, giving her a final 2 mile time of around 9:35 or 9:36.
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Re: Mary Cain 9:02.10 3k (Oversized track)

Postby Master Po » Sat Jan 12, 2013 7:15 pm

aaronk wrote:Great time....but a wasted effort.


A wasted effort? Really? I read lots of your posts, and so I am accustomed to your hyperbole, but how on earth can you say that a 9:02 in her first indoor meet of the season is "wasted"? For heaven's sake -- she doesn't need to rewrite all the record books all the time, all at once. Give her (and her coach) a chance.
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Re: Mary Cain 9:02.10 3k (Oversized track) [overall HSR]

Postby doug5321 » Sat Jan 12, 2013 7:19 pm

cain will be a junior until january 1st 2016, if you look at the tilastopa all timeworld junior list, we have no runners over 800 on the female side (we have jim ryun in the 800, and ryun and webb in the mile though ryun and webbs mile equivalency WOULD NOT put them on the top 20 junior list at 1500.

so cain has a great chance to make tilastopaja all time list before she is no longer a junior.

the 20th fastest junior time at 3000 is 8:46.52
the 20th fastest junior time at 1500 is 4:04.97
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Re: Mary Cain 9:02.10 3k (Oversized track) [overall HSR]

Postby gh » Sat Jan 12, 2013 7:37 pm

aaronk wrote:[....
So, IMHO (Not worth a damn, I know!!), she probably WOULD have finished those last 218 meters in 32-34 seconds, giving her a final 2 mile time of around 9:35 or 9:36.


Unfortunately, you don't understand how the T&FN conversion factors work. There's fatigue factor built in, meaning that the kick is already factored in. I don't know what Cain's splits were at this point, but I'm assuming she had to have a kick of some kind, and would be pretty much knackered at the finish (no matter how "easy" she ran). Asking her to run another 218 would probably be the slowest segment of the race, not the fastest, because she already ran the fastest.

What's far more likely (and this is what these off-distance conversion factors are meant to do) is that at best she would have run at something like the 36-second pace she averaged for each of the 15 200s in the race proper. And the known speed-decay factor says it's more than that.
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Re: Mary Cain 9:02.10 3k (Oversized track) [overall HSR]

Postby tandfman » Sat Jan 12, 2013 7:47 pm

It should also be noted that the T&FN conversion factors are based on principles that are generally recognized as valid by track & field experts and statisticians.
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Re: Mary Cain 9:02.10 3k (Oversized track) [overall HSR]

Postby gh » Sat Jan 12, 2013 7:51 pm

The 1.08 figure for 1500/mile is well accepted, because there's a ton of record data to go with it. Using the same factor for 3000/2M as we do admittedly requires a bit more of a leap of faith. (It's all voodoo).

Bottom line is that in the decades we've been using this, nobody has ever come up with a better one, so we're content in the thought that it's close enough for government work.
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Re: Mary Cain 9:02.10 3k (Oversized track) [overall HSR]

Postby 26mi235 » Sat Jan 12, 2013 9:13 pm

Basically, what you 'get' is a 208m segment during the race at a slower pace before a final speed up. Since she was not leading until 60m to go, she would not have dictated the pace on those additional 218m.
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Re: Mary Cain 9:02.10 3k (Oversized track)

Postby Dutra5 » Sat Jan 12, 2013 10:25 pm

aaronk wrote:Great time....but a wasted effort.

All she got out of this was a time.


Come on. Could you be more wrong?
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Re: Mary Cain 9:02.10 3k (Oversized track) [overall HSR]

Postby aaronk » Sun Jan 13, 2013 1:35 am

Okay, okay, you want me to see this as a positive thing??

Yeah, it's the fastest ever HS time in the 3K, indoors or out!
Yeah, it's (according to my self-compiled lists) 16th best indoor time.....on the COLLEGIATE indoor list for 3K!!
Yeah, she beat some pretty fair pro runners....and she's just a HS 11th grader!!
Yeah, I can even say "I told you so!!!"....after praising her talents in an "obsessive" "creepy" way these past few months!!
And yeah, I'm HAPPY she ran as fast as she did!! (And I feel CERTAIN she can run 8:50 or better!!)

Satisfied??

Now let me pose a hypothetical.

A high school BOY (unnamed) runs a 9.90 100 on some OUTdoor track this spring.
But the announcer then says the wind was slightly over the limit at 2.1, so it's NOT a HSR!!!
BUT.......everyone says, Who cares??.....it's still the fastest 100 EVER by a HS boy!!
And the kid is praised to High Heaven by one and all.

Then the record books come out.
NOT ONE of them list that 9.90 on their Top 40 lists, or on their All Time lists, or in their HS Records section!!

The ONLY place that GREAT 9.90 is listed is BELOW these lists.....with the appending "WIND-AIDED MARK" attached to it!!!

Need I say more??
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Re: Mary Cain 9:02.10 3k (Oversized track) [overall HSR]

Postby gh » Sun Jan 13, 2013 6:20 am

first rule of holes: when you're in one, stop digging.
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Re: Mary Cain 9:02.10 3k (Oversized track) [overall HSR]

Postby az2004 » Sun Jan 13, 2013 6:29 am

wow, what will she do this year when she's peaked???
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Re: Mary Cain 9:02.10 3k (Oversized track) [overall HSR]

Postby aaronk » Sun Jan 13, 2013 7:05 am

[quote="az2004"]wow, what will she do this year when she's peaked???[

What were her splits in this race (the 9:02)?
polevaultpower said she finished "fast and easy looking".
I'd say she could run 8:50 right now....today!!

But if she runs all these distances,, and makes a normal progression for a kid her age, she COULD run the following by August 31st of this year (end of her 11th grade year, for record purposes):

800......2:00 (or 1:59+??)
1000....2:36
1500....4:05
1 mile..4:25
3000....8:45
2 mile..9:25
5000....15:00
10000...31:30

Outrageous??
Maybe.
But she just ran what would place her 16th on the All Time Indoor COLLEGIATE list for 3K......while in the 11th grade in high school!!!

BTW, does anyone know her exact birthdate?
Has she already turned 17?
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Re: Mary Cain 9:02.10 3k (Oversized track) [overall HSR]

Postby aaronk » Sun Jan 13, 2013 7:16 am

Just checked T&FN World list for this year.
As of January 10th (before Cain's run), the WORLD leader in the 3K was....

9:12.66 by Anna Shchagina of Russia!!

Unless someone ran faster this weekend.....

Mary Cain, 11th grader, is NUMBER ONE in the WORLD over 3K this year!!!
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Re: Mary Cain 9:02.10 3k (Oversized track) [overall HSR]

Postby tandfman » Sun Jan 13, 2013 7:22 am

aaronk wrote:BTW, does anyone know her exact birthdate?
Has she already turned 17?

She will turn 17 on May 3.
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Re: Mary Cain 9:02.10 3k (Oversized track) [overall HSR]

Postby gh » Sun Jan 13, 2013 7:30 am

And, as such, is eligible to run in the World Youth Championships this year. And then in the World Juniors of '14 (in Eugene). Too bad that her final year as a Junior, '15, isn't one with a WJC.
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Re: Mary Cain 9:02.10 3k (Oversized track)

Postby tandfman » Sun Jan 13, 2013 7:41 am

aaronk wrote:Great time....but a wasted effort.

A wasted effort? Her performance is being hailed on many leading running sites as one of the greatest prep distance perfomances of all time--perhaps the greatest. Nobody else seems to see this as a wasted effort.

aaronk wrote:If she had run the SAME time on a 200 meter banked track ANYWHERE in the world, she'd now be the OFFICIAL High School Record holder!!!

Nonsense. There is no OFFICIAL High School Record. The National Federation of State High School Associations (the only organization that purports to recognize official HS records) does not recognize indoor records and they do not recognize records for 3000 meters. Even if they did recognize indoor records and recognized 3000 meters, they would not recognize this as a record because the event included non-HS athletes.

So there was no way in the world this could ever be an OFFICIAL HS record, no matter what the size of the track was. I suppose by your way of thinking, she shouldn't have run the race at all. It was doomed to be a "wasted effort".

If that's the way you look at a truly fantastic performance by an amazing young runner, I feel sorry for you.
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Re: Mary Cain 9:02.10 3k (Oversized track)

Postby Marlow » Sun Jan 13, 2013 7:56 am

tandfman wrote:Nonsense. There is no OFFICIAL High School Record.

Well, yeah, there is, and she now owns it. If you know anything about American HS T&F, you know that the T&FN records are indeed the ONLY REAL HSRs, and are recognized ABOVE the NFHS ones.
As pointed out above, her run may be the singularly best distance run EVER by HSer.

aaronk, your multiple-personality disorder is interfering with the sheer joy you usually exude! She did EXACTLY what you most fervently wished her to do, smashed the 3000 (all-conditions!) record. It's all good, bro. :D
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Re: Mary Cain 9:02.10 3k (Oversized track) [overall HSR]

Postby Dutra5 » Sun Jan 13, 2013 8:31 am

aaronk wrote:Just checked T&FN World list for this year.
As of January 10th (before Cain's run), the WORLD leader in the 3K was....

9:12.66 by Anna Shchagina of Russia!!

Unless someone ran faster this weekend.....

Mary Cain, 11th grader, is NUMBER ONE in the WORLD over 3K this year!!!



No she's not. You just laid out a well thought out, non hyperbolic rant showing everyone that her race was a wasted effort that could have been run in her back yard. So it doesn't count.
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Re: Mary Cain 9:02.10 3k (Oversized track) [overall HSR]

Postby Master Po » Sun Jan 13, 2013 8:35 am

Some statistics, to reinforce the mood of appreciation for Cain's performance :) :

I'm guessing the three women who finished closest behind Cain were also pleased with their performances, as (per all-athletics.com data) each ran her PB at this distance:
Tara Erdman, previously 9:11.59 (she's more a 10k runner, w a 32:06 from last year).
Treniere Moser, prev 9:11.34 (her best times are at 800/1500 --1:59 & 4:03 -- from 2006 & 2007, so perhaps this is a step in that direction again for her)
Hilary Stellingwerff, prev. 9:09.53 (she's also more an 800/1500 runner, with 2:01 & 4:05 from last year).

Perusing IAAF Youth lists from the past two seasons for others born in 1996 or later, there are three with 3k times under 9:20 (these are outdoor performances, of course):

Mercy Cherono (b. May 96) 9:08.88 (July 2012)
Maki Izumida (b. January 96) 9:13.30 (October 2012)
Tomoyo Adachi (b. February 96) 9:18.16 (December 2011)

Note on Izumida: On the Youth 1500m lists from 2012, she's second to Cain among those born in 1996, with a 4:20.41. There is also one other Japanese athlete in this birth year under 4:20, on the 2011 lists: Ayaka Nakagawa (b. September 96), with a 4:19.93 (October 2011).

Just another way of pointing out the "Wow!" factor for Cain's performance yesterday. Congratulations to her, and high hopes for a healthy 2013! :D
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Re: Mary Cain 9:02.10 3k (Oversized track)

Postby tandfman » Sun Jan 13, 2013 9:41 am

Marlow wrote:
tandfman wrote:Nonsense. There is no OFFICIAL High School Record.

Well, yeah, there is, and she now owns it. If you know anything about American HS T&F, you know that the T&FN records are indeed the ONLY REAL HSRs, and are recognized ABOVE the NFHS ones.

I think there's a difference between OFFICIAL and ONLY REAL. I agree that the HS records recognized by T&FN are the ONLY REAL HSRs. But that doesn't make them OFFICIAL. The latter word connotes a status that I don't think T&FN claims.
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Re: Mary Cain 9:02.10 3k (Oversized track) [overall HSR]

Postby gh » Sun Jan 13, 2013 9:45 am

only when we're in full-pompous mode :mrgreen:
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Re: Mary Cain 9:02.10 3k (Oversized track) [overall HSR]

Postby Conor Dary » Sun Jan 13, 2013 10:26 am

Hey, this reminds me of our Boston 2:03:02 thread!
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Re: Mary Cain 9:02.10 3k (Oversized track)

Postby Marlow » Sun Jan 13, 2013 10:30 am

tandfman wrote:The latter word connotes a status that I don't think T&FN claims.

They may not (unless in FPM), but the rest of us do. REALLY and DE FACTO trump 'official' every time, esp. when the 'officials' haven't a clue.
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Re: Mary Cain 9:02.10 3k (Oversized track) [overall HSR]

Postby kuha » Sun Jan 13, 2013 11:44 am

Simply confirming the obvious:

This mark is really impressive, regardless of track size. And secondly, it's a bit stunning that Cain was beaten by Baxter only recently. What can Baxter do on the track??
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Re: Mary Cain 9:02.10 3k (Oversized track) [overall HSR]

Postby aaronk » Sun Jan 13, 2013 12:34 pm

The more I think about this 9:02, AND Cain's potential, the more I think of Gerry Lindgren's 1964 season, indoors and out.

He started in Dec '63 with a 9:00.0 2 mile.
Then progressed indoors to 8:46 and 8:40.
Then ran 13:44 and 29:17 outdoors, plus a 4:01.5 mile!!

Mary's 9:02 MIGHT be equivalent to Lindgren's 9:00.0 in San Francisco!!
If so, my earlier predictions of a possible 8:45 in the 3K just MIGHT become a reality!!

This girl has talents and determination above and beyond!!!
"The next Mary Decker", someone dubbed her??

I think Decker just might get.....decked ( :lol: ) by THIS Mary!!
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Re: Mary Cain 9:02.10 3k (Oversized track) [overall HSR]

Postby bushop » Sun Jan 13, 2013 12:45 pm

gh wrote:And, as such, is eligible to run in the World Youth Championships this year. And then in the World Juniors of '14 (in Eugene). Too bad that her final year as a Junior, '15, isn't one with a WJC.

Not to hijack the thread, but...
Why don't they hold these meets every year?
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Re: Mary Cain 9:02.10 3k (Oversized track) [overall HSR]

Postby bushop » Sun Jan 13, 2013 12:49 pm

aaronk wrote:... a normal progression for a kid her age

Based on what?
Last edited by bushop on Sun Jan 13, 2013 1:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Mary Cain 9:02.10 3k (Oversized track)

Postby bushop » Sun Jan 13, 2013 12:51 pm

Marlow wrote:
tandfman wrote:The latter word connotes a status that I don't think T&FN claims.
They may not (unless in FPM), but the rest of us do. REALLY and DE FACTO trump 'official' every time, esp. when the 'officials' haven't a clue.

In a similar sense the T&F News All-American is a true HS All-American.
Last edited by bushop on Sun Jan 13, 2013 1:12 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Mary Cain 9:02.10 3k (Oversized track) [overall HSR]

Postby aaronk » Sun Jan 13, 2013 1:04 pm

bushop wrote:
aaronk wrote:
az2004 wrote:... a normal progression for a kid her age

Based on what?


Personal observation and study.
That's all!

I can't say it happens for everybody, girls OR boys, but it's happened often enough.....a RAPID progression from one year to the next.....in their teen years.

Yes, I KNOW HS girls, in particular, progress in huge leaps early on, then either plateau or REgress!!
Maybe Mary Cain has ALREADY reached that "plateau".

Look at the HS lists from year to year.....going WAY back!!
I spoke of Lindgren earlier.
His 11th grade mile was something like 4:06.
He improved to 4:01.

Even Jim Ryun, who had run a sub-4 in the 11th grade, improved that time by almost 4 seconds!!

And Mary herself went from a 4:17.8 in her frosh year all the way to smashing Hasay's mark with her 4:11.01 just one year later.
Who's to say her "natural progression" won't give her ANOTHER 6 second improvement in the 1500....thus my prediction earlier of a POSSIBLE 4:05!!

Oh yes, almost forgot!!
How many young (??) Kenyans......boys and girls.....seem to come out of nowhere to run times like 14:40 or under 31:00 for girls, and steeples in the 8:05 range, or 5K's in under 13??

LOTS!!
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Re: Mary Cain 9:02.10 3k (Oversized track) [overall HSR]

Postby Master Po » Sun Jan 13, 2013 2:06 pm

I have no idea what a normal or typical progression should look like for Cain or any elite athlete, but I am interested in Cain's actual progression at this distance in her very young career. I know she has raced 800 & 1500/mile more frequently, but I have seen these times mentioned, though I don't know anything about their circumstances:

2011
9:28.6

2012
9:32.2

Assuming these are correct, 2013 already represents a major step in the progression. Of course, we already know this, but I think it's useful to be reminded of what she's actually done.
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Re: Mary Cain 9:02.10 3k (Oversized track) [overall HSR]

Postby kuha » Sun Jan 13, 2013 2:37 pm

aaronk wrote:Lindgren; Ryun; etc.


By definition, ultra-outliers provide no guidance as to what a "normal" progression may be, since they are not normal talents to begin with. If you're going to look at great 17 year olds (or whatever), then you have to look at a truly representative sample (including the ones who don't improve much or at all) and not just cherry pick the data points that you like.
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Re: Mary Cain 9:02.10 3k (Oversized track) [overall HSR]

Postby Marlow » Sun Jan 13, 2013 3:56 pm

Normal progression?! There is no such thing. Even if you took 'average' progression from a large data-pool, there'd be very few that would actually follow that model and NONE of the out-liers would be even close to it.
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