T&FN's Men's AOY: David Rudisha


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T&FN's Men's AOY: David Rudisha

Postby gh » Thu Dec 27, 2012 2:54 pm

Yes, it's a 3-peat for the 800's main man.

Check out full top 10 on front page. Close stuff: first time 4 guys have ever had an approval rating in the 80% range. No. 4 is rarely as high as the 60s.
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Re: T&FN's Men's AOY: David Rudisha

Postby Mighty Favog » Thu Dec 27, 2012 3:00 pm

I was disappointed to see Merritt all the way down at 4th, but this was an unusually tough year at the top, what with three "are you kidding me?" types of World Records. Merritt had more losses than the others but did not go out if his way to avoid the tough competition.
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Re: T&FN's Men's AOY: David Rudisha

Postby gh » Thu Dec 27, 2012 3:06 pm

In the final analysis I couldn't put him any higher than No. 3 (behind Eaton and Rudisha)
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Re: T&FN's Men's AOY: David Rudisha

Postby Marlow » Thu Dec 27, 2012 3:10 pm

gh wrote:In the final analysis I couldn't put him any higher than No. 3 (behind Eaton and Rudisha)

I'm a HUGE Aries M fan, but have to agree whole-heartedly.
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Re: T&FN's Men's AOY: David Rudisha

Postby sprintdoc » Thu Dec 27, 2012 3:24 pm

I take issue with Rudisha due to his loss. Eaton was perfect and set his WR in a cold, steady rain. Eaton still had one of the top Olympic decathlon performances ever.

How often has the world athlete of the year suffered a loss?
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Re: T&FN's Men's AOY: David Rudisha

Postby dbirds » Thu Dec 27, 2012 3:30 pm

I called this a few weeks ago - eaton would get most feat place votes and not win! Curious to see how many voters had him below 3rd
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Re: T&FN's Men's AOY: David Rudisha

Postby gh » Thu Dec 27, 2012 3:38 pm

sprintdoc wrote:I take issue with Rudisha due to his loss. Eaton was perfect and set his WR in a cold, steady rain. Eaton still had one of the top Olympic decathlon performances ever.

How often has the world athlete of the year suffered a loss?


For a start, Rudisha did last year.
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Re: T&FN's Men's AOY: David Rudisha

Postby mump boy » Thu Dec 27, 2012 3:45 pm

sprintdoc wrote:I take issue with Rudisha due to his loss. Eaton was perfect and set his WR in a cold, steady rain. Eaton still had one of the top Olympic decathlon performances ever.

How often has the world athlete of the year suffered a loss?


How often has the AOY only competed twice ?!!

Merrit gets marked down for competing against everyone all year :( he's too low here

Mo is WAY too high, outside of London he did nothing of note

I think it's the same 10 as i have though
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Re: T&FN's Men's AOY: David Rudisha

Postby gh » Thu Dec 27, 2012 3:50 pm

Eaton may have only decathloned twice, but he also competed in individual events at level few other decathletes can, and was 2-0 over Olympic bronze medalist Will Claye in the long jump, and if we went that deep would have ranked about No. 12 in the world. He also ran at a world-class level in 110H races and if he had been in that event at London, would have been a semifinalist.

So I didn't think of his season as just the two competitions.
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Re: T&FN's Men's AOY: David Rudisha

Postby dbirds » Thu Dec 27, 2012 3:58 pm

Not to mention - a heptathlon wr even though t&f news refused to acknowledge it
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Re: T&FN's Men's AOY: David Rudisha

Postby ExCoastRanger » Thu Dec 27, 2012 4:01 pm

I like the top two. I could agree with them in either order.
From the front page:
"The 23-year-old Kenyan halfmiler did it
largely on the strength of the Performance
Of The Year, a wire-to-wire World Record
run of 1:40.91 to win Olympic gold."

Eaton's OT performance was, for me, probably equal.
But the fact Rudisha's was a 1:40 blaze of glory vs. Eaton's dramatic 10-event slow burn made that 800 a jaw-dropping moment and, again for me, wipes out any negative from the end-of-season loss.
Two of the most memorable performances and seasons in my t&f memory.
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Re: T&FN's Men's AOY: David Rudisha

Postby Mighty Favog » Thu Dec 27, 2012 4:08 pm

I'm never, ever going to give credit for losing only twice when a guy purposely ducks a competitor who can beat him. I'm only arguing that Merritt should have been third; I figured the AOY would be either Eaton or Rudisha and pushing for Merritt was Quixotic if not just plain being ornery.

If indoor variations on outdoor events counted, I'd have to go with Eaton. Put it this way: he probably would have been up for Olympic selection in the hurdles and the long jump for any other nation in the world besides the US. That's just nuts.
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Re: T&FN's Men's AOY: David Rudisha

Postby aaronk » Thu Dec 27, 2012 4:12 pm

The top four had 29 points separating them??
Are you sure you didn't forget a decimal point......as in "two-point-nine" (2.9) as the points span??
Those four could easily have been switched around in any number of combinations!!

I still believe, however, that Merritt or Eaton should have been ahead of Rudisha!!
Hopefully, in the POY department, they WILL be!!!
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Re: T&FN's Men's AOY: David Rudisha

Postby mump boy » Thu Dec 27, 2012 4:17 pm

I have absolutely no problem with Eaton at all and in any other year i would happily have him No1 but i do think that peoples views by where he set his WR (as are mine having not seen even 1 sec of it). If he's set this record in RUS or at the UK champs in Hexham (or whatever god forsaken place they were this year) he wouldn't be getting these kind of props

Anyway great top 4 and very happy this is voted on actual achievement not for PR purposes :D
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Re: T&FN's Men's AOY: David Rudisha

Postby mump boy » Thu Dec 27, 2012 4:18 pm

aaronk wrote:Hopefully, in the POY department, they WILL be!!!


Don't hold your breath :shock: :?
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Re: T&FN's Men's AOY: David Rudisha

Postby gh » Thu Dec 27, 2012 4:19 pm

dbirds wrote:Not to mention - a heptathlon wr even though t&f news refused to acknowledge it


it was well acknowledged to the indoor season, where it belonged. We similarly "refused to acknowledge" (as always) cross country races, non-marathon road races, 56-pound weight throws, caber tosses, the egg-and-spoon race, 3-legged race, synchronized high jumping and being the member of a relay team.

None are part of the picture of the central core of the sport as defined by T&FN for its purposes decades ago. It's a simple system to understand, and it's here to stay.
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Re: T&FN's Men's AOY: David Rudisha

Postby dbirds » Thu Dec 27, 2012 4:56 pm

The IAAF counts it and when decathletes only have 2-3 competitions, it makes sense. I would apply same principal towards an indoor 5k or 10k. Maybe not as enough merit but something. I do like the fact that u factored in his lj and 110h marks.
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Re: T&FN's Men's AOY: David Rudisha

Postby gh » Thu Dec 27, 2012 5:49 pm

What the IAAF does is of no concern to us.

I would also note that despite the IAAF's "counting it" he didn't make their top 3!

I guess you're better off sticking with our way after all.
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Re: T&FN's Men's AOY: David Rudisha

Postby ATK » Thu Dec 27, 2012 6:04 pm

mump boy wrote:Merrit gets marked down for competing against everyone all year :( he's too low here

I have to agree, there is no way he gets ranked behind Bolt for competing against everyone all year, and having the year that he did, even if there were some losses.

Bolt purposely did not race his best competition, except when necessary. This has to be factored into the ranking system somehow...
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Re: T&FN's Men's AOY: David Rudisha

Postby mcgato » Thu Dec 27, 2012 6:17 pm

OK, when did Merritt lose this year? I went to the IAAF site to check on the yearly list, only to find out that they have f*@ked that site beyond belief (yes, I know there is a separate thread). I know he false started once. Other than that, where were his losses?

I do agree with others that Merritt should be rewarded for stepping to the line against all comers, while Bolt should not be rewarded for ducking competition for the better part of the year. I'll be curious to see any mention of head to head records in the upcoming issue.
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Re: T&FN's Men's AOY: David Rudisha

Postby jb » Thu Dec 27, 2012 6:29 pm

He false started twice (New York and Lausanne DLs), and also lost the DL races in Shanghai (13.26 for 4th) and Eugene (12.96w for 2nd).

mcgato wrote:OK, when did Merritt lose this year? I went to the IAAF site to check on the yearly list, only to find out that they have f*@ked that site beyond belief (yes, I know there is a separate thread). I know he false started once. Other than that, where were his losses?
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Re: T&FN's Men's AOY: David Rudisha

Postby JumboElliott » Thu Dec 27, 2012 6:46 pm

I can't argue against Rudisha, but I would have voted for Merritt.
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Re: T&FN's Men's AOY: David Rudisha

Postby gh » Thu Dec 27, 2012 6:48 pm

ATK wrote:...
Bolt purposely did not race his best competition, except when necessary. This has to be factored into the ranking system somehow...


So we don't end up confusing apples & oranges here. The World Rankings compilers very much take quality of competition into account when crunching their numbers.

But there is no "system" involved with the AOY voting. There are 40-plus members of the international panel who are given ballots which detail each athlete's seasonal record, places in the World Rankings, and how their marks stack up both on the yearly and all-time lists.

From there, subjective judgment takes over. As we've seen just from the small number of participants in this thread, assessing what's important is all over the lot. Not everybody sees everything the same way.

Thus in this year's men's ballot (37 votes), 5 different performers got a nod for No. 1, (and the same 5 for Nos. 2 and 3), 7 for Nos. 4 and 5.... and 16 men overall got nods for the top 10.

Sometimes the ballots look a lot like mine, other years they don't. That's the beauty of a "democracy"; the final result may not be right, but with some group think (informed group think that is) we think it's a better result than our declaring by fiat who was No. 1.
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Re: T&FN's Men's AOY: David Rudisha

Postby kuha » Thu Dec 27, 2012 7:11 pm

gh wrote:That's the beauty of a "democracy"; the final result may not be right, but with some group think (informed group think that is) we think it's a better result than our declaring by fiat who was No. 1.


Or by using rigid mathematical formulae. The collective judgment strategy definitely makes the most sense.
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Re: T&FN's Men's AOY: David Rudisha

Postby mcgato » Thu Dec 27, 2012 7:12 pm

jb wrote:He false started twice (New York and Lausanne DLs), and also lost the DL races in Shanghai (13.26 for 4th) and Eugene (12.96w for 2nd).
Thanks for that. I remembered the Lausanne FS, but didn't remember the early season losses and DQ. Curiously, I was at the New York meet, and I don't remember him with a FS. I guess he didn't hit my radar as a potential AOY at that point.
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Re: T&FN's Men's AOY: David Rudisha

Postby gh » Thu Dec 27, 2012 7:38 pm

kuha wrote:
gh wrote:That's the beauty of a "democracy"; the final result may not be right, but with some group think (informed group think that is) we think it's a better result than our declaring by fiat who was No. 1.


Or by using rigid mathematical formulae. The collective judgment strategy definitely makes the most sense.


The problem with all "rigid mathematical formulae" (aka "computer rankings") is that somewhere along the line, somebody has to make set of subjective judgments. Which is why the BCS uses three different "computer rankings" each devised by somebody with his own way of thinking.

So as you say, "collective judgment" makes a lot of sense.
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Re: T&FN's Men's AOY: David Rudisha

Postby gh » Thu Dec 27, 2012 7:45 pm

Here's a bit of "insider knowledge" that may give you a clue as to how hard it would be to construct a formula to decide on AOY.

R.L. Quercetani, generally regarded as the doyen of both track & field historians and statisticians, in his long decades honchoing T&FN's World Rankings, never voted for AOY.

He said AOY-voting was classic apples & oranges and that it was only possible to compare people inside the same cohort.
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Re: T&FN's Men's AOY: David Rudisha

Postby bobguild76 » Thu Dec 27, 2012 9:00 pm

Excellent choices! Rudisha as AOY with the POY also. Heck of a year for Eaton to break the WR in the Dec and Merritt in the 110H. Most other years they would be either AOY or POY. I would have voted Merritt ahead of Bolt for the same reasons given previously on this site. I'm also glad there is a significant gap to Mo Farah in #5 ... he had an amazing, and emotionally spectacular, year, but not in the same league as the four ahead of him.
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Re: T&FN's Men's AOY: David Rudisha

Postby Vault-emort » Fri Dec 28, 2012 1:16 am

gh wrote:Here's a bit of "insider knowledge" that may give you a clue as to how hard it would be to construct a formula to decide on AOY.

R.L. Quercetani, generally regarded as the doyen of both track & field historians and statisticians, in his long decades honchoing T&FN's World Rankings, never voted for AOY.

He said AOY-voting was classic apples & oranges and that it was only possible to compare people inside the same cohort.


so true. easy for most of us to pick an apple over an orange, but almost impossible to be objective.
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Re: T&FN's Men's AOY: David Rudisha

Postby AS » Fri Dec 28, 2012 2:15 pm

I am flabbergasted that 3 of the 37 purported experts didn't even deem Robert Harting in the Top 10!!

The guy was UNDEFEATED (unlike Rudisha, Bolt, Merritt) in 12 showings, won Olympic gold, and had 2 throws over 70m.

How did they miss him?
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Re: T&FN's Men's AOY: David Rudisha

Postby aaronk » Fri Dec 28, 2012 3:12 pm

This could go in either men's or women 's AOY threads, but after a bit of scanning the two Top Ten's, I found the following bits of trivia:

In each Top Ten, there was one Multi person each, one High Hurdler each, and one Pole Vaulter each.

Multi's: Both Ennis and Eaton took 2nd place. Eaton was 17 points behind 1st, while Ennis was 21 points back

110/100H: Both Merritt and Pearson finished in 4th!!

PV: Both Lavillenie and Suhr ended in 10th. Suhr was 245 points behind Adams, while Lavillenie was 250 back from Rudisha!!
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Re: T&FN's Men's AOY: David Rudisha

Postby dbirds » Fri Dec 28, 2012 6:02 pm

Harting omission by 3 voters? Easy, some voters are biased vs multieventers and field eventers just like heisman voters and MVP voters are often biased v defensive players. I would kick people out if they leave out an obvious pick for bias but I realize that is not always easy to do
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Re: T&FN's Men's AOY: David Rudisha

Postby Tuariki » Fri Dec 28, 2012 6:02 pm

aaronk wrote:This could go in either men's or women 's AOY threads, but after a bit of scanning the two Top Ten's, I found the following bits of trivia:

In each Top Ten, there was one Multi person each, one High Hurdler each, and one Pole Vaulter each.

Multi's: Both Ennis and Eaton took 2nd place. Eaton was 17 points behind 1st, while Ennis was 21 points back

110/100H: Both Merritt and Pearson finished in 4th!!

PV: Both Lavillenie and Suhr ended in 10th. Suhr was 245 points behind Adams, while Lavillenie was 250 back from Rudisha!!

and your point is??
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Re: T&FN's Men's AOY: David Rudisha

Postby aaronk » Fri Dec 28, 2012 6:52 pm

Tuariki wrote:
aaronk wrote:This could go in either men's or women 's AOY threads, but after a bit of scanning the two Top Ten's, I found the following bits of trivia:

In each Top Ten, there was one Multi person each, one High Hurdler each, and one Pole Vaulter each.

Multi's: Both Ennis and Eaton took 2nd place. Eaton was 17 points behind 1st, while Ennis was 21 points back

110/100H: Both Merritt and Pearson finished in 4th!!

PV: Both Lavillenie and Suhr ended in 10th. Suhr was 245 points behind Adams, while Lavillenie was 250 back from Rudisha!!

and your point is??


Nothing!!
Just found it interesting!
(But "interesting", I suppose, is strictly "in the eye of the beholder"!! :? )
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Re: T&FN's Men's AOY: David Rudisha

Postby Tuariki » Sun Dec 30, 2012 4:18 am

What I find interesting and illogical is the All-Athletics.com ranking of Yohan Blake as 2nd in the overall AOY ranking behind Bolt. Makes no sense at all to me.

Blake is give 1455 points in the 100m and 1409 in the 200m. His individual scores for the event seem OK; that is they make sense. But then those 2 individual scores somehow then translate to 1509 points overall.

Rudisha, on the other hand, gets 1472 for the 800m which translates to 1472 for the overall.

Blake gets 2 x silver, 0 x WR compared to Rudisha's 1 x gold and 1 x WR.

It appears All-Athletics rated the best performances - at least by single event as:

Merrit 1487; Rudisha 1472; Eaton 1471; Bolt (110m) 1464

Perhaps even more ridiculous is the ranking of Mo Farah as 19th overall and only 4th in the 5000m. Even Gatlin stomps all over Farah - 7th overall and his points for the 100m well ahead of Farah for the 500m and 10000m.

Robert Harting was only good enough for 30th overall. He was behind Asafa Powell, Liu Xiang, Churandy Martina, Tyson Gay and Nickel Ashmeade. 1 x gold and undefeated just can't keep up with a bunch of sprinter types with 0 x any sort of medal and multiple defeats.

What a complete nonsense of a ranking system. Are any of the posters on this message board involved in the compiling of the All-Athletics.com list of statistical nonsense.

At the risk of being banned again I will sum up by using the very "banning terminology" that got me into trouble a few weeks ago. IMO the All-Athletics.com ranking list has been put together by morons and idiots.
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Re: T&FN's Men's AOY: David Rudisha

Postby 18.99s » Sun Dec 30, 2012 8:52 am

Tuariki wrote:What a complete nonsense of a ranking system. Are any of the posters on this message board involved in the compiling of the All-Athletics.com list of statistical nonsense.

At the risk of being banned again I will sum up by using the very "banning terminology" that got me into trouble a few weeks ago. IMO the All-Athletics.com ranking list has been put together by morons and idiots.

They use a formula which is explained at the link below.

http://www.all-athletics.com/en-us/rule ... kings-2012

Apparently they don't give any extra consideration for championship events like the Olympics or the quality of the competitors in any given meet; it's all about placings and timings/distances. Looks like they simply decided on a simplistic formula, and didn't bother to give it a reality check and tweak it after looking at its output.
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Re: T&FN's Men's AOY: David Rudisha

Postby Tuariki » Sun Dec 30, 2012 11:12 am

18.99s wrote:
Tuariki wrote:What a complete nonsense of a ranking system. Are any of the posters on this message board involved in the compiling of the All-Athletics.com list of statistical nonsense.

At the risk of being banned again I will sum up by using the very "banning terminology" that got me into trouble a few weeks ago. IMO the All-Athletics.com ranking list has been put together by morons and idiots.

They use a formula which is explained at the link below.

http://www.all-athletics.com/en-us/rule ... kings-2012

Apparently they don't give any extra consideration for championship events like the Olympics or the quality of the competitors in any given meet; it's all about placings and timings/distances. Looks like they simply decided on a simplistic formula, and didn't bother to give it a reality check and tweak it after looking at its output.

Their rules, on the surface, read like the world's very best breakfast of Eggs Benedict but the reality of the resulting meal is very much a complete dog's breakfast.
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Re: T&FN's Men's AOY: David Rudisha

Postby donley2 » Mon Dec 31, 2012 10:51 am

Tuariki wrote:
At the risk of being banned again I will sum up by using the very "banning terminology" that got me into trouble a few weeks ago. IMO the All-Athletics.com ranking list has been put together by morons and idiots.


I have absolutely nothing to do with setting up the All-athletics.com ranking system, but I do at least appreciate that someone is attempting to do it. Your name calling really does not do much for anything or anyone. How about you set up a ranking system.
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Re: T&FN's Men's AOY: David Rudisha

Postby Marlow » Mon Dec 31, 2012 12:04 pm

Tuariki wrote:All-athletics uses a formula . . . is all about placings and timings/distances. Looks like they simply decided on a simplistic formula, and didn't bother to give it a reality check and tweak it after looking at its output.


While it's an 'improvement' of the old IAAF (worthless) formula, it still suffers from a lack of 'common sense' in the output. Here are the wPV rankings [T&FN vs. A-A]:

1 4 SUHR
2 3 ISINBAYEVA
3 1 SILVA
4 2 SPIEGELBURG
5 7 PTÁČNÍKOVÁ
6 5 MURER
7 6 BLEASDALE
9 9 STRUTZ
10 10 BOSLAK

Putting Suhr 4th reveals just how of touch the formula is.
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Re: T&FN's Men's AOY: David Rudisha

Postby Tuariki » Mon Dec 31, 2012 10:08 pm

donley2 wrote:
Tuariki wrote:
At the risk of being banned again I will sum up by using the very "banning terminology" that got me into trouble a few weeks ago. IMO the All-Athletics.com ranking list has been put together by morons and idiots.


I have absolutely nothing to do with setting up the All-athletics.com ranking system, but I do at least appreciate that someone is attempting to do it. Your name calling really does not do much for anything or anyone. How about you set up a ranking system.


While I appreciate the dedication to tracking and recording performances their AOY formula is a dog's breakfast and IMO brings the sport into disrepute when the results are so obviously a farce. As a case in point I use the rankings of Tyson Gay compared to Robert Harting.

2012 Comparison

Gay - - - - - - Harting
12th - - - - - - 30th - - - - - - All-Athletics AOY ranking
9.80 - - - - - - 70.66 - - - - - - Best performance in 2012
4th - - - - - - - 1st - - - - - - - Olympic Placing
0 - - - - - - - - - GOLD - - - - - Olympic medals
1290 - - - - - - 1269 - - - - - - IAAF scoring table points for 2012 best performance
4th - - - - - - - 1st - - - - - - - Rank in world of best athletes (one performance per athlete)
10th - - - - - - 1st - - - - - - - - Rank in world of best performance (count all performances)
1 - - - - - - - - 4 - - - - - - - - - Number of performances in world top 10 performances
10,- - - - - - - 1,2,7,10 - - - - Ranking of top 10 performances in world
42211 - - - - - 11111111111- - Places in finals for 2012

Notes
1. Gay's best 100m had a +1.5 m/s wind.
2. Would a 0 m/s wind bring Gay down to 9.86 and 1267 points
3. Only finals counted - heats and qualifying ignored

And as I pointed out this is not an isolated example. All-Athletics claim to be the world's leading TNF database; and I do not dispute that claim at all. They are also a commercial organization. Their standing in the world of athletics demands that they have a formula that is not nonsensical; and IMO what they currently have is just that - nonsensical - and it throws up moronic and idiotic rankings.

Their contributors are world recognised experts. I do not believe that these experts believe the results of their computer formula.

Tyson Gay is a great athlete and clearly a great person as well. But he is far behind Robert Harting in terms of AOY rankings for 2012.
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