Jordan Hasay told Running Times (See front page article!) she will turn to the 10,000 meters in her final collegiate track season. She said she felt comfortable running the 6K at the NCAA CC meet, and feels she can do another 4000 meters "at the same pace"!!
She might be right! She's a devoted athlete, and I know she'll put her heart and soul into it. But what can we expect from her in the 10K?
Her best 3000 is 9:05 on an oversize indoor track. Her best 5K is 15:37.
Project those times to the 10K distance, and you have....
9:05 for 3K = about 30:16. 15:37 for 5K = about 31:14.
The collegiate record is 31:18.
Obviously, she can't sustain her 3K pace (4:32.5 per 1500, or about 4:52 per mile). As for her ability to double her 5K time, that too is impossible.
In general, I've found that the average differential between one's 5K time and their potential at 10K is between 30 and 40 seconds per 5K. Meaning, if someone can run 14:11 for 5K (the women's WR), that person is capable of a 10K between 29:22 and 29:42. For Hasay, given her current 5K PR, that gives her a potential 10K time somewhere between 32:14 and 32:34.
Those times would be very good at the college level! The 32:14 would have won the NCAA by 27 seconds in 2012. The 32:34 would have won it by 7 seconds!
However, look at where she would finish against collegiate runners, using their times at the Trials!! Jordan would have been FOURTH collegiate woman...and that's with her FASTEST potential time of 32:14.
In order to challenge the Collegiate Record of 31:18.07, based on the slow-down ratio given above, she would need to have a 5000 meters best of either 15:09 or.....14:59!!
I wish Jordan the best at her new distance!! And I hope she shocks the shinola out of me with her 10K marks!!
From what I have read over the past couple of years on here in Hasay-related discussions, it seems a lot of observers of her career have felt she would flourish more in the long-term at longer distances. I wondered if she would make this transition post-collegiately, or while still in the collegiate ranks.
aaronk's analysis seems to me to be right, given Hasay's marks so far: 32-low or 32-mid seems reasonable. As a 5km runner, she has in the 3 previous collegiate seasons run an early (outdoor) season 5km in April, which is where her PB comes from. (I guess she did focus on the 5km in the 2011 season, when she ran her PB, won PAC-10/12 -- can't recall which it had become by then, finished 2nd at NCAA regionals, but perhaps under-performed a bit relative to some expectations at NCAA.) It will be interesting to see how she develops as a 10km runner once she begins really to focus her attention there. I think lonewolf observed in the NCAA XC thread that she looked leaner and stronger this year.
I wonder if some of that transition will happen during the indoor season (obviously, not to 10km). She has done the mile/3k double successfully at previous NCAA Indoor Ch. I wonder if she will do that one more time, or transition to the 5km indoors.
In any case, I have enjoyed following her career so far, and wish her well for her remaining collegiate track competitions.