NXN: Baxter vs. Cain [split]


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NXN: Baxter vs. Cain [split]

Postby aaronk » Sat Nov 24, 2012 9:19 pm

Friar wrote:
Fanning, a senior now, finished 11th in 18:50.8,

I think she's been inj/sick and packed with the FM front-five today.

Some odd things happened between the two Org's (NXN/FL) races. You have to wonder about how some were recruited to which particular race (I think I saw one sandbagger out there)?
Could Cain have run @VCP today if she wanted to or is that out of her hands now? A few really good kids apparently didn't race at all.
While it looks like the talent edge goes to NXN I guess it depends on how much FL values having Baxter in its race who would certainly be favored over "Little Mary."

looks like Mary ran just to win!!

Whether she has the chops to do that against a more talented (Neale, Frazier, Knight et. al) field is to be determined. But it would be nice if there was one race (not both).


Hope I won't have to eat my words, but with PR's of 2:03.34 and 4:11.01, I don't see ANY current HS'er who can challenge Mary Cain!!

Sarah Baxter, off her 16:00 at Mt SAC recently, might have markedly improved.
If so, when she goes to the track, she might go under 4:15 for 1500 and 10:00 for 2 miles.....but she hasn't yet!!
Others might run some good times when indoor season rolls around.
(CC times are hard to compare...or rate!)

Mary is MILES (pun intended!! :D ) ahead of the chase pack.....now.
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Re: Where does Little Mary (Cain) go now?

Postby 26mi235 » Sat Nov 24, 2012 11:13 pm

aaronk wrote:Hope I won't have to eat my words, but with PR's of 2:03.34 and 4:11.01, I don't see ANY current HS'er who can challenge Mary Cain!!


One former fervent poster would have made the point that the faster that 800 time, the less likely the athlete is to do well in the long races. While it is true that great high school athletes at one distance do pretty well at others 'of a kind', the 800 and XC not mot much 'of a kind'. However, it is the case that the 4:11 is much better than the 2:03, so the next distance up, 3000/3200/3218 should still be pretty good, but 5000 and 6000 are starting to really stretch the range.

Also note that the Fanning performance has a slightly ominous under-tone for those too enamored of a high school sophomore's performances.
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Re: Where does Little Mary (Cain) go now?

Postby polevaultpower » Sun Nov 25, 2012 7:38 am

Maybe no one will touch Cain during track season, but Neale has consistently been running quite a bit faster than Cain all season on hilly cross country courses. Cain's 800 and 1500 track PRs aren't that relevant to _this_ cross country season, where she in no way looks to be a heavy favorite nationally.
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Re: Where does Little Mary (Cain) go now?

Postby Marlow » Sun Nov 25, 2012 8:09 am

polevaultpower wrote:Maybe no one will touch Cain during track season, but Neale has consistently been running quite a bit faster than Cain all season on hilly cross country courses. Cain's 800 and 1500 track PRs aren't that relevant to _this_ cross country season, where she in no way looks to be a heavy favorite nationally.

Why is it that track distance races so often become tactical affairs, when cross country races seem to be all-out?! Cain would be a prohibitive favorite (IMO) in a tactical race, but I agree that holding a very hard pace over varying terrain could be a major challenge for her against XC-savvy runners like Baxter.
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Re: Where does Little Mary (Cain) go now?

Postby Conor Dary » Sun Nov 25, 2012 8:16 am

Marlow wrote:
polevaultpower wrote:Maybe no one will touch Cain during track season, but Neale has consistently been running quite a bit faster than Cain all season on hilly cross country courses. Cain's 800 and 1500 track PRs aren't that relevant to _this_ cross country season, where she in no way looks to be a heavy favorite nationally.

Why is it that track distance races so often become tactical affairs, when cross country races seem to be all-out?! Cain would be a prohibitive favorite (IMO) in a tactical race, but I agree that holding a very hard pace over varying terrain could be a major challenge for her against XC-savvy runners like Baxter.


Because there is one ideal spot on the track. And that is running in lane one behind the leader. And you don't have to really worry about where you are going. In cross country just drafting isn't nearly as easy.
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Re: Where does Little Mary (Cain) go now?

Postby 26mi235 » Sun Nov 25, 2012 8:18 am

Cross country races are probably more tactical than it looks. One way we categorize a track race as tactical is the split times. Those are not really used and the splits are for long periods and for dissimilar terrain. Maybe it would be good if they did not make track splits available...

Another reason for the difference is the size of the pack. On the track there are 10-15 runners while in cross there are 10 times as many.

[also, the 'ideal spot' mentioned by Conor Dary]
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Re: Where does Little Mary (Cain) go now?

Postby fpd4043 » Sun Nov 25, 2012 8:20 am

I agree with PoleVaultPower. The fight to watch at NXN will be Baxter and Neale, neither have been challenged this year.
You have to look at the course as well, Toni Reavis called it right last week week at Borderclash while interviewing Amy-Eloise Neale, calling Portland Meadows "lake Portland." It will be another slop fest, Neale is strong and this will be her 4th appearance there, she knows the course and will be hungry to end her HS XC career with the national title.
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Re: Where does Little Mary (Cain) go now?

Postby ExRun » Sun Nov 25, 2012 8:40 am

fpd4043 wrote:I agree with PoleVaultPower. The fight to watch at NXN will be Baxter and Neale, neither have been challenged this year.
You have to look at the course as well, Toni Reavis called it right last week week at Borderclash while interviewing Amy-Eloise Neale, calling Portland Meadows "lake Portland." It will be another slop fest, Neale is strong and this will be her 4th appearance there, she knows the course and will be hungry to end her HS XC career with the national title.



If it's a "slop fest" it will favor the lighter runners who will sink less into the mud. So that will favor Sarah B.... Last year had the same conditions and Sarah Baxter won, if I remember correctly... Neale was 5th and Mary Cain was right behind her in 6th. I think the order will remain the same this year, except they should take the top 3 places. If all three run it should be a great race!
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Re: Where does Little Mary (Cain) go now?

Postby aaronk » Sun Nov 25, 2012 2:00 pm

If the race comes down to either Mary Cain, Sarah Baxter, or Amy Eloise-Neale, I'd predict it would be.....

1. Mary Cain
2. Amy Eloise-Neale
3. Sarah Baxter

Why?
Their NAMES!

Baxter.
That "X" in her name brings on the "X-factor".
The "X-factor" is unknown!!
How could I possibly choose an "unknown"...and feel confident about it?

Eloise-Neale.
Such a lovely, delicate, feminine, PRETTY name!!
But "pretty" is as "pretty" mosttimes DOESN'T!!!
Thus, Amy finishes second!!

So why Mary Cain for first?
Her NAME!!
Mary has FOUR letters.
Cain has FOUR letters.

That's SYMMETRY!!
And "symmetry" WINS!!

Note: The above is meant to be a JOKE!! FUNNY!! NOT to be taken at all seriously!!

Just so you'd know! :D
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Re: Where does Little Mary (Cain) go now?

Postby 26mi235 » Sun Nov 25, 2012 3:48 pm

I really do not like NxN. High school XC is a local team race of little real national interest. Outside of a trivial fraction of the population who cares which team wins? It keeps the best runners from competing against each other (Footlocker). At the next level the talent gets concentrated to a much higher degree. Furthermore, a lot more people care about who wins because probably a thousand times more people care about the winning college teams.
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Re: Where does Little Mary (Cain) go now?

Postby Friar » Fri Nov 30, 2012 7:32 pm

i read that Emelia Goreka (Euro JCC champ) had a hard time dropping 800 prodigies Jessica Judd and Jen Walsh at the UK trials last week. So maybe Baxter won't be able to get away from Cain either?
I'd still go Baxter, Neale, Cain as this course could be in rough shape.
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Re: Where does Little Mary (Cain) go now?

Postby aaronk » Fri Nov 30, 2012 10:01 pm

Name any 3-way battles of the past in T&F....

and tomorrow's race between Sarah Baxter, Amy Eloise-Neale, and Mary Cain...

won't have to take a back seat!!

At least in PRE-race hype and anticipation!!!

God, I'd give almost ANYTHING to be there!!
Or to see it LIVE on some "livestream" video!!

I still believe Cain will win, with Baxter and Neale battling it out for 2nd.

Questions:

Will the course be too muddy?
Who, if anyone, will take it out from the gun??
Who will make the first move in a "tactical" race??
Will they SHATTER the course record....all three of them??
And of course....
which one will WIN??

(GREAT article about the race, and these 3 girls, on the front page!!)
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Re: Where does Little Mary (Cain) go now?

Postby aaronk » Sat Dec 01, 2012 2:14 am

Apparently, there WILL be a LIVE webcast of the Nike Cross Nationals!!

Click on the listing on the front page schedule.
You'll come to the race site, and the video!!

It's supposed to start at 9:30 a.m. Pacific time, with the girl's race beginning 35 minutes later!!

HURRAY!!!
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Re: Where does Little Mary (Cain) go now?

Postby Blues » Sat Dec 01, 2012 6:39 am

aaronk wrote:Apparently, there WILL be a LIVE webcast of the Nike Cross Nationals!!

Click on the listing on the front page schedule.
You'll come to the race site, and the video!!

It's supposed to start at 9:30 a.m. Pacific time, with the girl's race beginning 35 minutes later!!

HURRAY!!!


The height disparity of the three ladies should make for an interesting looking (but easy to tell apart) group of 3 if the three ladies who've been mentioned most here break away from the pack. For anybody who's not familiar with the athletes, Amy-Eloise Neale is 5'10", Mary Cain is 5'5", and Sarah Baxter is just 5'0" even.

I'm looking forward to watching the webcast too... Hopefully aaronk won't do too much gloating or taunting in here if Mary wins... :wink:
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Re: Where does Little Mary (Cain) go now?

Postby aaronk » Sat Dec 01, 2012 8:43 am

Blues wrote:
aaronk wrote:Apparently, there WILL be a LIVE webcast of the Nike Cross Nationals!!

Click on the listing on the front page schedule.
You'll come to the race site, and the video!!

It's supposed to start at 9:30 a.m. Pacific time, with the girl's race beginning 35 minutes later!!

HURRAY!!!


The height disparity of the three ladies should make for an interesting looking (but easy to tell apart) group of 3 if the three ladies who've been mentioned most here break away from the pack. For anybody who's not familiar with the athletes, Amy-Eloise Neale is 5'10", Mary Cain is 5'5", and Sarah Baxter is just 5'0" even.

I'm looking forward to watching the webcast too... Hopefully aaronk won't do too much gloating or taunting in here if Mary wins... :wink:



Actually, I'm not SUPER confident of a Cain win this morning!!
It's CC....not track!!
On a track....either indoors or outdoors.....I'd take Cain at ANY distance (against Baxter and Neale) from 800 through 5000!!

CC is different.
But if it comes down to them tied with 400 or 500 meters to go, I'll definitely take Cain!!
While Baxter has run fast over the WHOLE course (Mt SAC and others), she can't match Cain's ability to go in the low 60's on a "last lap"!! Same with Neale!!

IF there's gonna be someone ELSE winning this race, watch for Bella Burda, who finished 2nd to Cain in the NY race last week.
I can't find any times for her (on the track) from last year (2011).
So, unless she did something this past spring, she's come out of nowhere to finish 2nd to Cain!!
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Re: Where does Little Mary (Cain) go now?

Postby Blues » Sat Dec 01, 2012 9:47 am

Looks like NXN might be a slopfest considering the course conditions.. At least their height differential can help identify the big 3 if they can excel in these conditions, if everybody's face and uniform end up obscured by mud... At least it's sunny.
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Re: Where does Little Mary (Cain) go now?

Postby aaronk » Sat Dec 01, 2012 10:00 am

Salazar just said (on the webcast) Mary's in better shape than she was when she ran 4:11.....and that she's running close to what Olympic athletes have done in training!!

Sounds like that GLOAT is coming!!! :D

(Or MUD in my face!! :shock: )
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Re: Where does Little Mary (Cain) go now?

Postby aaronk » Sat Dec 01, 2012 10:33 am

Welllllllll......

Mary lost to Baxter....
BUT...
she was closing VERY fast in the last 200 or so!!
No mud, and a track oval, and Mary would've won!!

Be interesting to see if Baxter has "Cain-style" track times in her.
Can SHE run a 4:10-4:12....and go sub-9:00 for 3K and sub-15:30 for 5K

I think....IF they run for TIME.....EVERY HSR is.....GONE!!

It could be like the Coe-Ovett battles of the 80's, when they kept breaking each other's WR's!!

But Baxter ran GREAT!!
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Re: Where does Little Mary (Cain) go now?

Postby Marlow » Sat Dec 01, 2012 10:59 am

aaronk wrote:Be interesting to see if Baxter has "Cain-style" track times in her.
Can SHE run a 4:10-4:12....and go sub-9:00 for 3K and sub-15:30 for 5K

What the heck are you talking about? Cain can't do that either.
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Re: NXN: Baxter vs. Cain [split]

Postby Dutra5 » Sat Dec 01, 2012 11:43 am

Hyperbole be thy name.
:lol:
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Re: NXN: Baxter vs. Cain [split]

Postby polevaultpower » Sat Dec 01, 2012 12:32 pm

I wonder if Neale was fighting an illness or injury? She destroyed Knight the two times they have raced this season, both recently.
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Re: NXN: Baxter vs. Cain [split]

Postby aaronk » Sat Dec 01, 2012 12:34 pm

Marlow wrote:
aaronk wrote:Be interesting to see if Baxter has "Cain-style" track times in her.
Can SHE run a 4:10-4:12....and go sub-9:00 for 3K and sub-15:30 for 5K

What the heck are you talking about? Cain can't do that either.


To (very badly) paraphrase the Rolling Stones.....

Track season is just a kiss away......just a kiss away!!"

I guess I should have said those are, IMO, Mary's POTENTIAL times!!

Her "coach", Alberto Salazar, said today "Mary's in better shape than when she ran 4:11."

Translation:
Maybe a sub-4:10.
From there, it's easy to see Mary (or anyone with a sub-4:10 1500!!) running....

8:50ish
15:20ish
31:59ish!!

And Mary herself said, post-race today..."On to track!!"
And she sounded VERY enthusiastic when she said it!!
Can't wait!!
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Re: NXN: Baxter vs. Cain [split]

Postby unclezadok » Sat Dec 01, 2012 1:58 pm

Just how bad WERE the conditions today?
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Re: NXN: Baxter vs. Cain [split]

Postby gh » Sat Dec 01, 2012 2:14 pm

it was Portland in December.... next question? :mrgreen:
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Re: NXN: Baxter vs. Cain [split]

Postby ExRun » Sat Dec 01, 2012 2:38 pm

I was pretty sure Sarah Baxter would win it this year, but I think if they both run NXN next year Mary Cain will win. If you watched the race...Sarah Baxter was out of gas at the finish and Mary was closing in and would have overtaken her in another 100 yards. Mary didn't run a good tactical race and you can see in her post race interview that she knows it. Sarah ran the smarter race and that's why she is a champion.
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Re: NXN: Baxter vs. Cain [split]

Postby unclezadok » Sat Dec 01, 2012 4:14 pm

gh wrote:it was Portland in December.... next question? :mrgreen:


Yeah, I figured it was that bad when I saw the boys' times and thought they had mistakenly entered the girls' for them.
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Re: NXN: Baxter vs. Cain [split]

Postby 26mi235 » Sat Dec 08, 2012 9:01 pm

ExRun wrote:I was pretty sure Sarah Baxter would win it this year, but I think if they both run NXN next year Mary Cain will win. If you watched the race...Sarah Baxter was out of gas at the finish and Mary was closing in and would have overtaken her in another 100 yards. Mary didn't run a good tactical race and you can see in her post race interview that she knows it. Sarah ran the smarter race and that's why she is a champion.


There is no clear evidence that I see that Baster is the indisputable number 1 girls cross country runner. Rohrer fell in the first 400m, got up and methodically worked her way to the front

from link on the Home Page:

"In the girls race, youth was served by 15-year-old Anna Rohrer of Mishawaka, Indiana. The sophomore from Mishawaka High School tripped and went down in the first 400 meters of the race, but picked herself back up and moved through the field, pulling away over the final mile to win [by four seconds] her first national championship in 17:25."
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Re: Where does Little Mary (Cain) go now?

Postby Blues » Sun Dec 09, 2012 8:39 am

Blues wrote:
aaronk wrote:Apparently, there WILL be a LIVE webcast of the Nike Cross Nationals!!

Click on the listing on the front page schedule.
You'll come to the race site, and the video!!

It's supposed to start at 9:30 a.m. Pacific time, with the girl's race beginning 35 minutes later!!

HURRAY!!!


The height disparity of the three ladies should make for an interesting looking (but easy to tell apart) group of 3 if the three ladies who've been mentioned most here break away from the pack. For anybody who's not familiar with the athletes, Amy-Eloise Neale is 5'10", Mary Cain is 5'5", and Sarah Baxter is just 5'0" even....


Just to correct the info I posted regarding Sarah Baxter's height, according to an article in PrepCalTrack, Sarah was 4'8" two years ago, and has grown a whopping 10 inches in the last 2 years, evidently making her around 5'6" now... Quite a few sites still list her height from last year, which was 5 feet even. During the awards interviews after the NXN race, it was pretty obvious that Sarah was no longer noticeably shorter than Mary Cain... It'll be interesting to see how, or if, her significant change in physique will affect her times on the track...

"As a 4-foot, 8-inch freshman two years ago, Baxter put up performances that season on courses with very good history to legitimately warrant comparison with New York’s Aisling Cuffe as the top prep in the nation that year (Editor’s Note: We had the two rated as even by season’s end). But Baxter, citing a desire to end a long season at the state meet, bypassed the Nike Cross Nationals event, ending the debate.

Last year, Baxter experienced a four-inch growth spurt and she continued to win — capturing state cross-country and 3,200-meter track titles — while adjusting to the ganglier frame. Her truly signature achievement, however, came last December at the Nike Cross Nationals event when she started conservative, but eventually executed her strategy in seizing the lead and pulling away from the strongest prep field ever assembled in winning the national title.

Since then, another six inches of growth and an accompanying dose of muscular tone has made her a powerfully lithe athletic specimen."


http://www.prepcaltrack.com/2012/10/20/ ... here-1600/
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Re: NXN: Baxter vs. Cain [split]

Postby Master Po » Sun Dec 09, 2012 9:54 am

Too bad these 3 (Rohrer, Baxter, Cain) didn't race each other. Had the 3 been at Footlocker, it would have been a great race. Hard to say who would have won (I'd pick Baxter right now, but have no strong evidence for that choice).
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Re: NXN: Baxter vs. Cain [split]

Postby aaronk » Sun Dec 09, 2012 12:41 pm

Master Po wrote:Too bad these 3 (Rohrer, Baxter, Cain) didn't race each other. Had the 3 been at Footlocker, it would have been a great race. Hard to say who would have won (I'd pick Baxter right now, but have no strong evidence for that choice).


I agree!
But track season is upon us!!
Indoor, then outdoor!!

With the INCREDIBLE number of GREAT female athletes from the high school and frosh collegiate ranks who will be competing this year (2013 season) in the 800-10K range of events, I see what COULD be a record smashing year......in the NUMBER of records being broken!!!

And I'm not talking only in the 800-10,000 range, either!
But just in those events, you have Baxter, Cain, Rohrer, Neale, Nerud, Hatton, Wilson, Frazier, the Meier's, and who knows how many others!!
If all of them run for time......at all the distances between 800 and 10K.....we might see a wholesale revision of both the indoor and outdoor record books at those distances!!

But don't stop there!

What about Haley Crouser breaking her own HS JT record?
Or ditto with Kendell Williams in the Hept??
How high will Gabrielle Williams jump in 2013?? Higher than 6-4??
Will Kadicia Baird break SRR's 400 record??

In college, what will such frosh as Cayla Hatton, Brianna Nerud, and Shelby Vaughan do?? (Is Vaughan in college??)

Yep, 2013 COULD be a fantastic year!!
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Re: NXN: Baxter vs. Cain [split]

Postby tandfman » Sun Dec 09, 2012 1:14 pm

aaronk wrote:(Is Vaughan in college??)

Yes, she's a freshman at Texas A&M.
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Re: NXN: Baxter vs. Cain [split]

Postby 26mi235 » Sun Dec 09, 2012 3:13 pm

Master Po wrote:Too bad these 3 (Rohrer, Baxter, Cain) didn't race each other. Had the 3 been at Footlocker, it would have been a great race. Hard to say who would have won (I'd pick Baxter right now, but have no strong evidence for that choice).


My guess is that Rohrer stays on Baxter the entire time. Not sure who would win in the end; maybe we will see next season. However, I would guess that the improvement from this season to next will be greater for Rohrer than for Baxter.

This is the first full cross country season for Rohrer and even last track season (as a frosh) she was still coming back from the fall injuries. I find it interesting that aaronk has not really gone to sing her praises like he has the other two even though she has pretty good claims to being a bit of an outlier. In fact, given their backgrounds, Rohrer might have as much upside or more than the other two. Cain has enough of a start that even a better upside might not get her to Cain's level and I am not predicting a 4:11 from Rohrer. I am pretty impressed that a girl in her first XC season falls in the first 400 in the biggest race of the year and gets herself up, calmly works her way through the field from last to first and then simply runs away from them when she gets to the front.
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