WHAT'S YOUR TAKE ON THE ELECTION? (now closed)


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WHAT'S YOUR TAKE ON THE ELECTION? (now closed)

Postby gh » Wed Oct 24, 2012 3:00 pm

OK, this is a special one-time deal here folks. No throwing open the free-speech forum. Just a single topic on a single political subject, and just for a single day.

This thread will be opened at 18:00 PDT on election day and be closed at 18:00 the day after.
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Re: WHAT'S YOUR TAKE ON THE ELECTION? (now open)

Postby gh » Tue Nov 06, 2012 4:17 pm

knock yourselves out!
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Re: WHAT'S YOUR TAKE ON THE ELECTION? (now open)

Postby Flumpy » Tue Nov 06, 2012 5:03 pm

I speak for 50% of Americans and 95% of the rest of the world when I say 'I'm worried'!!!
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Re: WHAT'S YOUR TAKE ON THE ELECTION? (now open)

Postby DrJay » Tue Nov 06, 2012 5:06 pm

My take on the election.....this campaign seemed much more prolonged and wearying than previous ones. Maybe that's my imagination, but I don't think so. The economic collapse of 2008, the 10+ years of military involvement in the Middle East, and the extreme polarization of the two parties and their supporters are really starting to wear on the country and the electorate. Unfortunately, no matter which guy is elected, I don't see a turnaround to the point that the elves and fairies will be dancing with the butterflies in the grassy meadows in 2016, nor 2020, etc, so we may be stuck with this degree of partisan politics and Washington DC gridlock for a looonnngg time. Kind of amazing, though, just how close ths one is, how evenly divided this country is.
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Re: WHAT'S YOUR TAKE ON THE ELECTION? (now open)

Postby Flumpy » Tue Nov 06, 2012 5:12 pm

But the racial demographics point towards a Democratic majority in the future. Unless the GOP start to make huge inroads into the Hispanic and Black vote they are doomed :mrgreen:
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Re: WHAT'S YOUR TAKE ON THE ELECTION? (now open)

Postby Marlow » Tue Nov 06, 2012 5:19 pm

I'm amazed/gratified/mystified/worried/chagrined/proud/anyothercontradictoryemotional
adjective that the UNITED States of America can be so bipolar as to have one-half of the electorate be for one guy and the other half for the other, when they seem so dissimilar to me (not that I'm not exactly sure WHERE Romney stands on some key points since he's . . . ahem . . . 'evolved' his stance on so many key issues). I realize that America has always been The Melting Pot and that we cherish our individual freedoms (to think whatever we wanna think!), but I see us more ALIKE than different in our worldview (call it our hubristic Exceptionalism or whatever), so to realize that HALF the nation is gonna be POed tomorrow is . . . unsettling to me. If Romney wins, I'll go on my way (hey, if I can make it through RR and the Bushes, I can make it anywhere!) and still support my President and my country and Old Glory the best I can.
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Re: WHAT'S YOUR TAKE ON THE ELECTION? (now open)

Postby JRM » Tue Nov 06, 2012 5:28 pm

Pennsylvania is essentially out of play (will be D), if earlier polls are correct. Romney needs Virginia and Ohio to win; if they go Obama, it's basically a done deal for him. The icing on the cake would be Florida.
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Re: WHAT'S YOUR TAKE ON THE ELECTION? (now open)

Postby 26mi235 » Tue Nov 06, 2012 5:38 pm

The pundits think it is a tossup. The odds makers have a different opinion. In general the Brit (e.g., Betfair) had it at 4/1 odds for Romney, put up one dollar to win four and the flip for Obama but they have moved to 6 to 1 or 8 to 1 and they are as high as 1 for 20 for Obama (put up 20 to win 1) for both the overall race and for Ohio as well. If Obama wins Ohio, is is unlikely to lose any of Wisconsin, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, or Michigan. The odds for Virginia are somewhat (4/6 and 57/100

http://www.oddschecker.com/specials/politics-and-election/us-presidential-election/to-win-virginia

Nate Silver, the 538 Blog is probably the best aggregator and has it at 91% as of this morning.

In actual votes, Obama leads by 11,000 in Florida out of close to 5,000,000 votes.
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Re: WHAT'S YOUR TAKE ON THE ELECTION? (now open)

Postby mcgato » Tue Nov 06, 2012 5:48 pm

26mi235 wrote:Nate Silver, the 538 Blog is probably the best aggregator and has it at 91% as of this morning.
I've been following Silver's blog, and every state that CNN has given to a candidate is the same that Silver predicted. Unless something weird happens in his models, it is a done deal for Obama. Here is a link to the 538 blog:
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

I'll be following it for the rest of the night.
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Re: WHAT'S YOUR TAKE ON THE ELECTION? (now open)

Postby gh » Tue Nov 06, 2012 5:50 pm

now if Canada were the 51st State....

http://news.nationalpost.com/2012/11/04 ... or-romney/
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Re: WHAT'S YOUR TAKE ON THE ELECTION? (now open)

Postby Flumpy » Tue Nov 06, 2012 5:52 pm

And the rest of the world...........

http://madisonproject.com/wp-content/up ... 102012.gif
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Re: WHAT'S YOUR TAKE ON THE ELECTION? (now open)

Postby mcgato » Tue Nov 06, 2012 6:00 pm

Huh, I'm liking Canada and the rest of the world a lot better now. That is too funny, gh and Flumpy.
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Re: WHAT'S YOUR TAKE ON THE ELECTION? (now open)

Postby Friar » Tue Nov 06, 2012 6:10 pm

seemed much more prolonged and wearying

~ It should be embarrassing. One reason it's not --to most-- is Media Co's have an interest in maintaining this fiasco (on several levels). They love it and the available cash.

~ The dislike for Nate Silver eludes me? The man is a technician not a Dick Morris.

~ Easiest voting experience I've ever had on a clear crisp night. No wait at all.
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Re: WHAT'S YOUR TAKE ON THE ELECTION? (now open)

Postby mcgato » Tue Nov 06, 2012 6:14 pm

Friar wrote:~ The dislike for Nate Silver eludes me? The man is a technician not a Dick Morris.
I may have missed it, but did someone say anything bad about Silver? He has been spot on so far tonight.
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Re: WHAT'S YOUR TAKE ON THE ELECTION? (now open)

Postby DrJay » Tue Nov 06, 2012 6:18 pm

Florida, with 6.8 million votes counted, has the two separated by 193 votes.

In Colorado, today we voted on Amendment 64, which would legalize posession of small amounts of marijuana for fun purposes, not just medical reasons (we already did that latter one) and would direct the state to tax wholesale sales of the drug:

http://www.regulatemarijuana.org/s/regu ... l-act-2012

"yes" leads 54% to 46% early returns
Last edited by DrJay on Tue Nov 06, 2012 6:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: WHAT'S YOUR TAKE ON THE ELECTION? (now open)

Postby DrJay » Tue Nov 06, 2012 6:18 pm

NBC just gave PA to Obama.
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Re: WHAT'S YOUR TAKE ON THE ELECTION? (now open)

Postby gh » Tue Nov 06, 2012 6:25 pm

DrJay wrote:Florida, with 6.8 million votes counted, has the two separated by 193 votes.

In Colorado, today we voted on Amendment 64, which would legalize posession of small amounts of marijuana for fun purposes, not just medical reasons (we already did that latter one) and would direct the state to tax wholesale sales of the drug:

http://www.regulatemarijuana.org/s/regu ... l-act-2012

"yes" leads 54% to 46% early returns


even though it's now after the fact, worth watching this 60 Minutes from a month back about Colorado and the Feds taking a hands-off stance on the "illegal" pot sales.

http://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?id= ... ryMediaBox
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Re: WHAT'S YOUR TAKE ON THE ELECTION? (now open)

Postby JRM » Tue Nov 06, 2012 6:27 pm

mcgato wrote:
26mi235 wrote:Nate Silver, the 538 Blog is probably the best aggregator and has it at 91% as of this morning.
I've been following Silver's blog, and every state that CNN has given to a candidate is the same that Silver predicted. Unless something weird happens in his models, it is a done deal for Obama. Here is a link to the 538 blog:
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

I'll be following it for the rest of the night.


There's also the Princeton Election Consortium:

http://election.princeton.edu/

Similar predictions to Nate Silver.
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Re: WHAT'S YOUR TAKE ON THE ELECTION? (now open)

Postby gh » Tue Nov 06, 2012 6:29 pm

Flumpy wrote:And the rest of the world...........

http://madisonproject.com/wp-content/up ... 102012.gif



errr, Flump... ain't it like 0-dark-30 where you are?
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Re: WHAT'S YOUR TAKE ON THE ELECTION? (now open)

Postby mump boy » Tue Nov 06, 2012 6:29 pm

Seems Rep attempted voter suppression may have backfired and REALLY motivated African American voters in Pennsylvania. Also i'd kind of discounted Florida but it's looking good :D

In the future Rep are going to have to widen their appeal in non white demographics and at the moment they don't seem to have any interest at doing this at all. Historically they have been much more pragmatic than Dems but they've totally lost the plot with the Tea Party. It will be very interesting to see if he moderate wing of Rep stand up to the crazies if WHEN they lose tonight
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Re: WHAT'S YOUR TAKE ON THE ELECTION? (now open)

Postby cullman » Tue Nov 06, 2012 6:30 pm

gh wrote:now if Canada were the 51st State....

http://news.nationalpost.com/2012/11/04 ... or-romney/

We (Canadians) are. Didn't you get the memo?

cman
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Re: WHAT'S YOUR TAKE ON THE ELECTION? (now open)

Postby JRM » Tue Nov 06, 2012 6:34 pm

DrJay wrote:NBC just gave PA to Obama.


Wisconsin now, too (bad news for Paul Ryan...). If Ohio goes to Obama, it's over.
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Re: WHAT'S YOUR TAKE ON THE ELECTION? (now open)

Postby Tuariki » Tue Nov 06, 2012 6:35 pm

Obama takes Pennsylvania
Obama takes Michigan


Oh my God it looks like my million options on the Mormon Secret Underwear company are going to be worthless.

MormonsSecret.com Uses Mitt and Ann Romney’s Faces To Sell Magical Mormon Underwear
by Jeesoo Park Oct 18, 2012 4:45 AM EDT

A new site called MormonsSecret.com is using the Romneys to sell “magical Mormon underwear”—and it’s already receiving backlash. Jeesoo Park talks to its mysterious (“ex-Mormon”) founder.
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Re: WHAT'S YOUR TAKE ON THE ELECTION? (now open)

Postby DrJay » Tue Nov 06, 2012 6:35 pm

Several local tax measures here look to pass, to maintain a sales tax earmarked for regional transportation projects, i.e. repair ailing roads (we have plenty of 'em), a tax increase to create more sheriff's deputy postions, a library tax increase. Just goes to show, if you ask the public for "more money to do more stuff", you'll lose, but if you tell them with a little more precision what you plan to do, they'll think about it and support good ideas.
Last edited by DrJay on Tue Nov 06, 2012 6:56 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: WHAT'S YOUR TAKE ON THE ELECTION? (now open)

Postby Flumpy » Tue Nov 06, 2012 6:36 pm

gh wrote:
Flumpy wrote:And the rest of the world...........

http://madisonproject.com/wp-content/up ... 102012.gif



errr, Flump... ain't it like 0-dark-30 where you are?


What's 0-dark-30??? :?
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Re: WHAT'S YOUR TAKE ON THE ELECTION? (now open)

Postby cullman » Tue Nov 06, 2012 6:40 pm

mcgato wrote:
Friar wrote:~ The dislike for Nate Silver eludes me? The man is a technician not a Dick Morris.
I may have missed it, but did someone say anything bad about Silver? He has been spot on so far tonight.

He uses math and proper statistical analysis to come up with his results. Oh...and the torches and pitch forks were brought out after he predicted a win for Obama.

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Re: WHAT'S YOUR TAKE ON THE ELECTION? (now open)

Postby cullman » Tue Nov 06, 2012 6:46 pm

Flumpy wrote:
gh wrote:
Flumpy wrote:And the rest of the world...........

http://madisonproject.com/wp-content/up ... 102012.gif



errr, Flump... ain't it like 0-dark-30 where you are?


What's 0-dark-30??? :?

12:30 AM :lol:
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Re: WHAT'S YOUR TAKE ON THE ELECTION? (now open)

Postby mcgato » Tue Nov 06, 2012 6:49 pm

cullman wrote:He uses math and proper statistical analysis to come up with his results. Oh...and the torches and pitch forks were brought out after he predicted a win for Obama.

cman
As a statistician, I really like his work. As a fellow U of Chicago alum, I really like his work. But the bottom line, he does really good work on the predictions. Crazy good work.
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Re: WHAT'S YOUR TAKE ON THE ELECTION? (now open)

Postby gh » Tue Nov 06, 2012 6:50 pm

cullman wrote:
Flumpy wrote:
gh wrote:
Flumpy wrote:And the rest of the world...........

http://madisonproject.com/wp-content/up ... 102012.gif



errr, Flump... ain't it like 0-dark-30 where you are?


What's 0-dark-30??? :?

12:30 AM :lol:


Actually, in my experience, it's usually reserved for small-number 30s, like 01 through 05 (06:30 being a perfectly logical time at which to be up)
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Re: WHAT'S YOUR TAKE ON THE ELECTION? (now open)

Postby mump boy » Tue Nov 06, 2012 6:51 pm

cullman wrote:
Flumpy wrote:
gh wrote:
Flumpy wrote:And the rest of the world...........

http://madisonproject.com/wp-content/up ... 102012.gif



errr, Flump... ain't it like 0-dark-30 where you are?


What's 0-dark-30??? :?

12:30 AM :lol:


I wish, it's 02.50 am but i had a little snooze at 8pm so i have stamina to last out the whole night :D
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Re: WHAT'S YOUR TAKE ON THE ELECTION? (now open)

Postby Flumpy » Tue Nov 06, 2012 6:52 pm

It's actually 2.50am here.

I shall be up until we get a result. Hoping that's not sometime in December.
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Re: WHAT'S YOUR TAKE ON THE ELECTION? (now open)

Postby dj » Tue Nov 06, 2012 6:55 pm

Friar wrote:~ The dislike for Nate Silver eludes me? The man is a technician not a Dick Morris.


Watch the movie "Moneyball." Silver is the movie's young computer nerd; the pundits are the movie's scouts.

It's tech and math versus eyes and intuition.

The analogy works well as Silver was a major baseball stat person (creator of PECOTA, a performance prediction model) before moving to politics.
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Re: WHAT'S YOUR TAKE ON THE ELECTION? (now open)

Postby mump boy » Tue Nov 06, 2012 6:56 pm

CNN have the best results but BBC have the best discussion :? i'm flicking between the 2. I'm going to switch to Fox in a minute just for a laugh, the more panicked they get the more preposterous they become :lol: :lol:
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Re: WHAT'S YOUR TAKE ON THE ELECTION? (now open)

Postby mump boy » Tue Nov 06, 2012 7:00 pm

There was lots of talk about a lack of enthusiasm for Obama but there seems to have been a massive turnout in many swing states.

I assume this is good for Obama

Romney gets Utah thought :shock: :wink:
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Re: WHAT'S YOUR TAKE ON THE ELECTION? (now open)

Postby Flumpy » Tue Nov 06, 2012 7:04 pm

Come on Dade County!!!
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Re: WHAT'S YOUR TAKE ON THE ELECTION? (now open)

Postby gh » Tue Nov 06, 2012 7:07 pm

Flumpy wrote:It's actually 2.50am here.

I shall be up until we get a result. Hoping that's not sometime in December.


May depend on what Mr. H. Chad did in Florida :-)
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Re: WHAT'S YOUR TAKE ON THE ELECTION? (now open)

Postby jazzcyclist » Tue Nov 06, 2012 7:08 pm

For those of you who haven't seen it, this is one of my all-time favorite youtube videos.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OjrthOPLAKM

She must live in Ohio.
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Re: WHAT'S YOUR TAKE ON THE ELECTION? (now open)

Postby JRM » Tue Nov 06, 2012 7:13 pm

McCaskill defeats Akin; Donnelly defeats Mourdock. Apparently, rape isn't taken quite as lightly as some thought.
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Re: WHAT'S YOUR TAKE ON THE ELECTION? (now open)

Postby Marlow » Tue Nov 06, 2012 7:13 pm

gh wrote:Actually, in my experience, it's usually reserved for small-number 30s, like 01 through 05 (06:30 being a perfectly logical time at which to be up)

It's a military term, having nothing to do with being on the half hour - simply meaning an 'ungodly early' time to have to get up for a take-off on a mission or get up for maneuvers. Therefore it doesn't refer to a time between midnight and 3am, which presumably would just be a very long extended previous day. That leaves about 3am to about 5am.
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Re: WHAT'S YOUR TAKE ON THE ELECTION? (now open)

Postby jazzcyclist » Tue Nov 06, 2012 7:15 pm

Flumpy wrote:But the racial demographics point towards a Democratic majority in the future. Unless the GOP start to make huge inroads into the Hispanic and Black vote they are doomed

Amen! In 1980, Reagna got 55% of the White vote. In 2008 McCain also got 55% of the White vote. The difference is that Whites comprised 90% of the electorate in 1980 versus 74% in 2008.

Demographics is destiny.
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