WHAT'S YOUR TAKE ON THE ELECTION? (now closed)

[gh]

OK, this is a special one-time deal here folks. No throwing open the free-speech forum. Just a single topic on a single political subject, and just for a single day.

This thread will be opened at 18:00 PDT on election day and be closed at 18:00 the day after.

[gh]

knock yourselves out!

[Flumpy]

I speak for 50% of Americans and 95% of the rest of the world when I say 'I'm worried'!!!

[DrJay]

My take on the election.....this campaign seemed much more prolonged and wearying than previous ones. Maybe that's my imagination, but I don't think so. The economic collapse of 2008, the 10+ years of military involvement in the Middle East, and the extreme polarization of the two parties and their supporters are really starting to wear on the country and the electorate. Unfortunately, no matter which guy is elected, I don't see a turnaround to the point that the elves and fairies will be dancing with the butterflies in the grassy meadows in 2016, nor 2020, etc, so we may be stuck with this degree of partisan politics and Washington DC gridlock for a looonnngg time. Kind of amazing, though, just how close ths one is, how evenly divided this country is.

[Flumpy]

But the racial demographics point towards a Democratic majority in the future. Unless the GOP start to make huge inroads into the Hispanic and Black vote they are doomed

[Marlow]

I'm amazed/gratified/mystified/worried/chagrined/proud/anyothercontradictoryemotional
adjective that the UNITED States of America can be so bipolar as to have one-half of the electorate be for one guy and the other half for the other, when they seem so dissimilar to me (not that I'm not exactly sure WHERE Romney stands on some key points since he's . . . ahem . . . 'evolved' his stance on so many key issues). I realize that America has always been The Melting Pot and that we cherish our individual freedoms (to think whatever we wanna think!), but I see us more ALIKE than different in our worldview (call it our hubristic Exceptionalism or whatever), so to realize that HALF the nation is gonna be POed tomorrow is . . . unsettling to me. If Romney wins, I'll go on my way (hey, if I can make it through RR and the Bushes, I can make it anywhere!) and still support my President and my country and Old Glory the best I can.

[JRM]

Pennsylvania is essentially out of play (will be D), if earlier polls are correct. Romney needs Virginia and Ohio to win; if they go Obama, it's basically a done deal for him. The icing on the cake would be Florida.

[26mi235]

The pundits think it is a tossup. The odds makers have a different opinion. In general the Brit (e.g., Betfair) had it at 4/1 odds for Romney, put up one dollar to win four and the flip for Obama but they have moved to 6 to 1 or 8 to 1 and they are as high as 1 for 20 for Obama (put up 20 to win 1) for both the overall race and for Ohio as well. If Obama wins Ohio, is is unlikely to lose any of Wisconsin, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, or Michigan. The odds for Virginia are somewhat (4/6 and 57/100

http://www.oddschecker.com/specials/politics-and-election/us-presidential-election/to-win-virginia

Nate Silver, the 538 Blog is probably the best aggregator and has it at 91% as of this morning.

In actual votes, Obama leads by 11,000 in Florida out of close to 5,000,000 votes.

[mcgato]

Nate Silver, the 538 Blog is probably the best aggregator and has it at 91% as of this morning.

I've been following Silver's blog, and every state that CNN has given to a candidate is the same that Silver predicted. Unless something weird happens in his models, it is a done deal for Obama. Here is a link to the 538 blog:
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

I'll be following it for the rest of the night.

[gh]

now if Canada were the 51st State....

http://news.nationalpost.com/2012/11/04 ... or-romney/

[Flumpy]

And the rest of the world...........

http://madisonproject.com/wp-content/up ... 102012.gif

[mcgato]

Huh, I'm liking Canada and the rest of the world a lot better now. That is too funny, gh and Flumpy.

[Friar]

seemed much more prolonged and wearying

~ It should be embarrassing. One reason it's not --to most-- is Media Co's have an interest in maintaining this fiasco (on several levels). They love it and the available cash.

~ The dislike for Nate Silver eludes me? The man is a technician not a Dick Morris.

~ Easiest voting experience I've ever had on a clear crisp night. No wait at all.

[mcgato]

~ The dislike for Nate Silver eludes me? The man is a technician not a Dick Morris.

I may have missed it, but did someone say anything bad about Silver? He has been spot on so far tonight.

[DrJay]

Florida, with 6.8 million votes counted, has the two separated by 193 votes.

In Colorado, today we voted on Amendment 64, which would legalize posession of small amounts of marijuana for fun purposes, not just medical reasons (we already did that latter one) and would direct the state to tax wholesale sales of the drug:

http://www.regulatemarijuana.org/s/regu ... l-act-2012

"yes" leads 54% to 46% early returns

[DrJay]

NBC just gave PA to Obama.

[gh]

Florida, with 6.8 million votes counted, has the two separated by 193 votes.

In Colorado, today we voted on Amendment 64, which would legalize posession of small amounts of marijuana for fun purposes, not just medical reasons (we already did that latter one) and would direct the state to tax wholesale sales of the drug:

http://www.regulatemarijuana.org/s/regu ... l-act-2012

"yes" leads 54% to 46% early returns

even though it's now after the fact, worth watching this 60 Minutes from a month back about Colorado and the Feds taking a hands-off stance on the "illegal" pot sales.

http://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?id= ... ryMediaBox

[JRM]

Nate Silver, the 538 Blog is probably the best aggregator and has it at 91% as of this morning.

I've been following Silver's blog, and every state that CNN has given to a candidate is the same that Silver predicted. Unless something weird happens in his models, it is a done deal for Obama. Here is a link to the 538 blog:
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

I'll be following it for the rest of the night.

There's also the Princeton Election Consortium:

http://election.princeton.edu/

Similar predictions to Nate Silver.

[gh]

And the rest of the world...........

http://madisonproject.com/wp-content/up ... 102012.gif

errr, Flump... ain't it like 0-dark-30 where you are?

[mump boy]

Seems Rep attempted voter suppression may have backfired and REALLY motivated African American voters in Pennsylvania. Also i'd kind of discounted Florida but it's looking good

In the future Rep are going to have to widen their appeal in non white demographics and at the moment they don't seem to have any interest at doing this at all. Historically they have been much more pragmatic than Dems but they've totally lost the plot with the Tea Party. It will be very interesting to see if he moderate wing of Rep stand up to the crazies if WHEN they lose tonight

[cullman]

now if Canada were the 51st State....

http://news.nationalpost.com/2012/11/04 ... or-romney/

We (Canadians) are. Didn't you get the memo?

cman

[JRM]

NBC just gave PA to Obama.

Wisconsin now, too (bad news for Paul Ryan...). If Ohio goes to Obama, it's over.

[Tuariki]

Obama takes Pennsylvania
Obama takes Michigan

Oh my God it looks like my million options on the Mormon Secret Underwear company are going to be worthless.

MormonsSecret.com Uses Mitt and Ann Romney’s Faces To Sell Magical Mormon Underwear
by Jeesoo Park Oct 18, 2012 4:45 AM EDT

A new site called MormonsSecret.com is using the Romneys to sell “magical Mormon underwear”—and it’s already receiving backlash. Jeesoo Park talks to its mysterious (“ex-Mormon”) founder.

[DrJay]

Several local tax measures here look to pass, to maintain a sales tax earmarked for regional transportation projects, i.e. repair ailing roads (we have plenty of 'em), a tax increase to create more sheriff's deputy postions, a library tax increase. Just goes to show, if you ask the public for "more money to do more stuff", you'll lose, but if you tell them with a little more precision what you plan to do, they'll think about it and support good ideas.

[Flumpy]

And the rest of the world...........

http://madisonproject.com/wp-content/up ... 102012.gif

errr, Flump... ain't it like 0-dark-30 where you are?

What's 0-dark-30???

[cullman]

~ The dislike for Nate Silver eludes me? The man is a technician not a Dick Morris.

I may have missed it, but did someone say anything bad about Silver? He has been spot on so far tonight.

He uses math and proper statistical analysis to come up with his results. Oh...and the torches and pitch forks were brought out after he predicted a win for Obama.

cman

[cullman]

And the rest of the world...........

http://madisonproject.com/wp-content/up ... 102012.gif

errr, Flump... ain't it like 0-dark-30 where you are?

What's 0-dark-30???

12:30 AM

[mcgato]

He uses math and proper statistical analysis to come up with his results. Oh...and the torches and pitch forks were brought out after he predicted a win for Obama.

cman

As a statistician, I really like his work. As a fellow U of Chicago alum, I really like his work. But the bottom line, he does really good work on the predictions. Crazy good work.

[gh]

And the rest of the world...........

http://madisonproject.com/wp-content/up ... 102012.gif

errr, Flump... ain't it like 0-dark-30 where you are?

What's 0-dark-30???

12:30 AM

Actually, in my experience, it's usually reserved for small-number 30s, like 01 through 05 (06:30 being a perfectly logical time at which to be up)

[mump boy]

And the rest of the world...........

http://madisonproject.com/wp-content/up ... 102012.gif

errr, Flump... ain't it like 0-dark-30 where you are?

What's 0-dark-30???

12:30 AM

I wish, it's 02.50 am but i had a little snooze at 8pm so i have stamina to last out the whole night

[Flumpy]

It's actually 2.50am here.

I shall be up until we get a result. Hoping that's not sometime in December.

[dj]

~ The dislike for Nate Silver eludes me? The man is a technician not a Dick Morris.

Watch the movie "Moneyball." Silver is the movie's young computer nerd; the pundits are the movie's scouts.

It's tech and math versus eyes and intuition.

The analogy works well as Silver was a major baseball stat person (creator of PECOTA, a performance prediction model) before moving to politics.

[mump boy]

CNN have the best results but BBC have the best discussion i'm flicking between the 2. I'm going to switch to Fox in a minute just for a laugh, the more panicked they get the more preposterous they become

[mump boy]

There was lots of talk about a lack of enthusiasm for Obama but there seems to have been a massive turnout in many swing states.

I assume this is good for Obama

Romney gets Utah thought

[Flumpy]

Come on Dade County!!!