nyc marathon and weather


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nyc marathon and weather

Postby az2004 » Fri Oct 26, 2012 6:45 am

with a never seen before hurricame hammering the city early next week with 10 unches of rain and major power outages expected

I DOUBT NOV 4 is a good date for the race...\\

the city could be under water, and the airports closed

'this is a NEVER BEFORE SEEN STORM

can they delay the race a week till nov 11???

power outages 7-10 days could be expected

maybe the mayans were right
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Re: nyc marathon and weather

Postby Conor Dary » Fri Oct 26, 2012 7:00 am

Aunty Em, Aunty Em!
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Re: nyc marathon and weather

Postby 26mi235 » Fri Oct 26, 2012 7:28 am

"never before seen"? I think that the likes of Boston and New York have been hit by such storms in the past.
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Re: nyc marathon and weather

Postby br » Fri Oct 26, 2012 8:27 am

Hurricane Sandy could be a disaster of epic proportions...

http://blogs.wsj.com/metropolis/2012/10 ... rd-region/

Now, it seems that hurricane models are beginning to converge on a likely strike somewhere between Delaware and Long Island, with the most likely place for the hybrid storm’s center to come ashore right now looking like the central New Jersey shore. The entire tri-state is within the National Hurricane Center’s most recent five-day cone, with experts there agreeing that New Jersey is Sandy’s likely final destination. But the storm will be so large by its landfall on Tuesday that significant impacts will extend outward for hundreds of miles from the center. In my opinion, the worst of Sandy’s coastal impacts are now likely to occur somewhere near the Greater New York area.

Here’s a look at what the tri-state can expect should Sandy stay on its current course:

Coastal Storm Surge: Should the Frankenstorm version of Sandy stay south of New York City as the National Hurricane Center predicts, several feet of wind-driven ocean water would be funneled into New York Harbor and up against area beaches, especially along the south shore of Long Island. This will likely be the storm’s greatest impact both locally and as a whole, and the local National Weather Service office has gone as far as to say this could be nearly a worst case scenario for the city, depending on the exact location of landfall.

In a phone conversation Thursday, meteorologist Jeff Masters from Weather Underground said that he expects Sandy could flood parts of the New York City subway system if current forecasts hold.

A National Weather Service wave height projection shows waves in excess of 30 feet just offshore as Sandy approaches, which would generate massive beach erosion and increase the storms destructive coastal potential.

To top it off, Sandy is expected to make landfall during the full moon, which would add an additional foot or so of tidal influence to coastal flooding projections.
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Re: nyc marathon and weather

Postby tandfman » Fri Oct 26, 2012 2:14 pm

The storm is supposed to be over by Wednesday or Thursday. Unless it manages to wash away a bridge or two (which I cannot imagine), it's hard for me to see Sandy affecting the marathon at all.
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Re: nyc marathon and weather

Postby Conor Dary » Fri Oct 26, 2012 2:19 pm

tandfman wrote:The storm is supposed to be over by Wednesday or Thursday. Unless it manages to wash away a bridge or two (which I cannot imagine), it's hard for me to see Sandy affecting the marathon at all.


Well, if there is flooding and electricity goes out in the city....let us just say I wouldn't want to be trying to run next week there. And there is also the problem of just getting there, since flights will be cancelled. It could be a royal mess.
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Re: nyc marathon and weather

Postby doug5321 » Sat Oct 27, 2012 2:08 am

i hope it does not cause the marathon to be cancelled, but safety has to come first.

also if their are these power outages what happens with the elections on november 6th? the elections will be 5-7 days after the storm.

whatever i guess the kids in the area the storm hits wont get to trick or treat this year.
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Re: nyc marathon and weather

Postby az2004 » Sat Oct 27, 2012 4:04 am

the forecast i saw say atlanti city is the target monady into tuesday, main part of the storm

so new york is in prime flood target, for major surge and rmain of 10 inches plus, and manhattan is an island, which can't handle that type of rainfall

this is a 1000 yeae storm, so boston and new york have not seen anything like it

wind into next weekend will exist, but getting into airports will be very tough

i;d postpone it till nov 11
as to the elections, theere will be parts of the norteast without powere thru the elections

all my trmaining, think i'll look for a december race now

that boston race of several years ago was nothing compared to what this storn is

frankenstorn is what it's called, and i'm staying away
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Re: nyc marathon and weather

Postby KDFINE » Sat Oct 27, 2012 5:59 am

If flights are cancelled and say 10,000 runners don't make it, maybe the race won't be the over-crowded mess that it has become. In any case, the Fort Wadsworth staging area should set a record for mud. After 9/11 security concerns brought about an earlier closing of the Verrazano Bridge. As a result, runners had to arrive much earlier and sit around the fort for much longer. Most of them are waiting out in the open. The wave starts only made the waiting much longer. The middle to the back of the pack runners hear the horn go off and still just sit around and wait. NYC is great because of the crowd support, but it could use 10,000 fewer participants.
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Re: nyc marathon and weather

Postby az2004 » Sat Oct 27, 2012 6:42 am

watching the coverage, it seems nyc has a major chance of the subways being knocked out

and it;s not a couple days, but a few weeks to fix them...

basically the city will grind to a halt

a friend told me, a few years ago the chicago marathon was halted at the half marathom point due to excessive heat and lack of fluid

chose chicago entrants who had their race halted, were granted entry into the philly marathon which this year is november 18

philly is 60 miles inland so, the storm should be less problematic, but rain is rain so 10 inches could happen there but the wind should be less strong
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Re: nyc marathon and weather

Postby Conor Dary » Sat Oct 27, 2012 8:28 am

In 2007 the Chicago Marathon did shut down, but it wasn't until about 4 hours after the start.
Temps that day reached the 80's.
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Re: nyc marathon and weather

Postby bambam » Sat Oct 27, 2012 8:53 am

az2004 wrote:'this is a NEVER BEFORE SEEN STORM


Have you heard of Katrina? The 1991 Perfect Storm? Hurricane Mitch in 1998? The Galveston Hurricane of 1900? Hazel in 1954?

Its coming through New York City, so the media will tell you its the worst storm of all-time. If it hit Topeka, Kansas, it would be page 8 in the newspaper.
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Re: nyc marathon and weather

Postby Conor Dary » Sat Oct 27, 2012 8:55 am

Weather Underground has it still over NYC on Thursday. Let us just say I wouldn't want to have to plan to get there next weekend. Though I suspect the Marathon will go on. Just with fewer people.

http://classic.wunderground.com/tropica ... ml#a_topad
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Re: nyc marathon and weather

Postby 26mi235 » Sat Oct 27, 2012 11:21 am

NOAA/NWS has it hitting at the Maryland/Delaware line, and heading almost west at that point. However, it will hit winter storms and turn north and wrap in snow, at least in areas like West Virgina.
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Re: nyc marathon and weather

Postby aaronk » Sat Oct 27, 2012 11:23 am

Conor Dary wrote:Weather Underground has it still over NYC on Thursday. Let us just say I wouldn't want to have to plan to get there next weekend. Though I suspect the Marathon will go on. Just with fewer people.

http://classic.wunderground.com/tropica ... ml#a_topad


Weird that the site is called "Weather Underground".
Back in the 60's/early 70's, the "Weather Underground" was an American terrorist group making bombs and killing cops, led by such people as Bernadine Dohrn and Bill Ayers!!!

Seriously (??), remember 2008, when John McCain cancelled the first day of the Republican Convention in Minnesota because of the THREAT of a Katrina-like hurricaine supposed to AGAIN destroy New Orleans??

Well, THAT hurricaine mostly fizzled (Wasn't it reduced to a Level 1 or 2 by the time it hit N.O.??), and all that panic went mostly for naught!!

Is this monster "'cane" gonna be a repeat "drizzle--fizzle)??
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Re: nyc marathon and weather

Postby tandfman » Sat Oct 27, 2012 11:28 am

az2004 wrote:philly is 60 miles inland so, the storm should be less problematic, but rain is rain so 10 inches could happen there but the wind should be less strong

Coastal Flood Watch
Issued: October 27 at 7:48AM EDT until October 29 at 4:00PM EDT by NWS
Expiring: Coastal Flood Watch issued October 27 at 7:48AM EDT until October 29 at 4:00PM EDT
Areas Affected: Bucks; Delaware; Philadelphia
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Re: nyc marathon and weather

Postby gh » Sat Oct 27, 2012 2:27 pm

aaronk wrote:
Conor Dary wrote:Weather Underground has it still over NYC on Thursday. Let us just say I wouldn't want to have to plan to get there next weekend. Though I suspect the Marathon will go on. Just with fewer people.

http://classic.wunderground.com/tropica ... ml#a_topad


Weird that the site is called "Weather Underground"....


And you're thinking that this is coincidental?!!!!!!
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Re: nyc marathon and weather

Postby Dutra5 » Sun Oct 28, 2012 9:57 am

Subways out :?: :shock:

There goes my shot at victory :(
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Re: nyc marathon and weather

Postby tandfman » Sun Oct 28, 2012 10:50 pm

NY Times story now linked on the front page deals with this.

I don't know how severe the impact of the storm will be, but there will certainly be disruption of travel plans for those who were planning to get to New York in the next few days.
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Re: nyc marathon and weather

Postby Friar » Tue Oct 30, 2012 6:10 pm

certainly be disruption of travel plans


31m
Amy Hastings ‏@HastyHastings
Empire State Building just came into view!! I love you New York!! Get well soon!

Hastings/Smith in the BIgApple tonight.
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Re: nyc marathon and weather

Postby tandfman » Tue Oct 30, 2012 11:56 pm

For a time yesterday, there seemed to be some equivocation on the part of race officials as to whether the race would certainly go on as planned on Sunday. Then the Mayor stepped in and confirmed it was a go. There are still some stories lingering out there in web-land that are based on the earlier retraction of a strong statement by the NYRR. I'm assuming at this point that it will be held.

That having been said, I'm sure there are NYRR folks working on this 24/7 and it's possible that within the next day or two, they may find a problem that just can't be solved. Let's hope not, for the sake of the thousands of people who planned to run and will be in New York ready to run this Sunday.
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Re: nyc marathon and weather

Postby DrJay » Wed Oct 31, 2012 4:25 am

I talked to a friend yesterday whose wife is to do make her marathon debut in NYC, aiming for 2:30. If she can't get there, one option for her is Fukuoka, Dec 2. If a bunch of elite athletes can't get to NY, perhaps Fukuoka will have a loaded field this year.
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Re: nyc marathon and weather

Postby shivfan » Wed Oct 31, 2012 5:19 am

bambam wrote:
az2004 wrote:'this is a NEVER BEFORE SEEN STORM


Have you heard of Katrina? The 1991 Perfect Storm? Hurricane Mitch in 1998? The Galveston Hurricane of 1900? Hazel in 1954?

Its coming through New York City, so the media will tell you its the worst storm of all-time. If it hit Topeka, Kansas, it would be page 8 in the newspaper.

:lol:
Here in the UK, it only became news when it approached the US....

The media showed scant attention when it was affecting Jamaica, Cuba, the Bahamas and Haiti.
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Re: nyc marathon and weather

Postby doug5321 » Wed Oct 31, 2012 6:26 am

DrJay wrote:I talked to a friend yesterday whose wife is to do make her marathon debut in NYC, aiming for 2:30. If she can't get there, one option for her is Fukuoka, Dec 2. If a bunch of elite athletes can't get to NY, perhaps Fukuoka will have a loaded field this year.



fukuoka i believe is and has always been a mens only race.
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Re: nyc marathon and weather

Postby doug5321 » Wed Oct 31, 2012 6:30 am

yokohama has a womens only elite marathon on november 18th, maybe she could look into that.
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Re: nyc marathon and weather

Postby gh » Wed Oct 31, 2012 7:45 am

doug5321 wrote:
DrJay wrote:I talked to a friend yesterday whose wife is to do make her marathon debut in NYC, aiming for 2:30. If she can't get there, one option for her is Fukuoka, Dec 2. If a bunch of elite athletes can't get to NY, perhaps Fukuoka will have a loaded field this year.



fukuoka i believe is and has always been a mens only race.


In any case, Fukuoka doesn't seem to have the financial wherewithal to buy a loaded field, and that's the only way you get one in modern marathoning.
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Re: nyc marathon and weather

Postby gh » Wed Oct 31, 2012 7:46 am

this story (which seems reasoned, not a scare-piece) suggests i could be weeks before the subway is running again.


http://www.theatlanticwire.com/national ... bad/58527/
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Re: nyc marathon and weather

Postby tandfman » Wed Oct 31, 2012 9:16 am

Good Grief! Someone has opened this facebook page:

https://www.facebook.com/pages/Cancel-2 ... 5321179684

My own view is that if it can be run without endangering the participants, it should be run. And I haven't read anything yet that suggests that they won't be able to do that.
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Re: nyc marathon and weather

Postby tandfman » Wed Oct 31, 2012 10:00 am

I just saw a tweet that said that NYRR has cancelled the 5K race Saturday morning. No confirmation of that yet on the NYRR website. (I must say, though, that it is not at all unusual for information about NYRR events to be released to the media prior to being posted on their website.)
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Re: nyc marathon and weather

Postby gh » Wed Oct 31, 2012 11:13 am

tandfman wrote:Good Grief! Someone has opened this facebook page:

https://www.facebook.com/pages/Cancel-2 ... 5321179684

My own view is that if it can be run without endangering the participants, it should be run. And I haven't read anything yet that suggests that they won't be able to do that.


I'd be more concerned about "endangering" the residents of the city, whose police/fire/emergency services must already be stretched to the limit. I can well see what the average citizen might feel it's in bad taste to run. Screw the "show the world we're resilient" PR attitude.
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Re: nyc marathon and weather

Postby guru » Wed Oct 31, 2012 11:52 am

gh wrote:
tandfman wrote:Good Grief! Someone has opened this facebook page:

https://www.facebook.com/pages/Cancel-2 ... 5321179684

My own view is that if it can be run without endangering the participants, it should be run. And I haven't read anything yet that suggests that they won't be able to do that.


I'd be more concerned about "endangering" the residents of the city, whose police/fire/emergency services must already be stretched to the limit.




I think that's exactly right.

http://vitals.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/10 ... s-cut?lite
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Re: nyc marathon and weather

Postby tandfman » Wed Oct 31, 2012 11:55 am

tandfman wrote:I just saw a tweet that said that NYRR has cancelled the 5K race Saturday morning. No confirmation of that yet on the NYRR website. (I must say, though, that it is not at all unusual for information about NYRR events to be released to the media prior to being posted on their website.)

I've now read that Mary Wittenberg has denied this. She says the 5K is still on, as of now.
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Re: nyc marathon and weather

Postby guru » Wed Oct 31, 2012 12:11 pm

My take is Wittenberg couldn't care less if 15 people come to the line Sunday. But as long as they don't have to cancel they have solid legal ground to keep all the entry fees.
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Re: nyc marathon and weather

Postby tandfman » Wed Oct 31, 2012 12:52 pm

guru wrote:My take is Wittenberg couldn't care less if 15 people come to the line Sunday. But as long as they don't have to cancel they have solid legal ground to keep all the entry fees.

I'm guessing that they'll refund the entry fees of those who couldn't get to NYC because of the storm, or at least give people a credit that can be used for next year's entry fee.
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Re: nyc marathon and weather

Postby gh » Wed Oct 31, 2012 12:58 pm

no such luck, says Bloomberg:

<<Those who aren’t able to make it to the race will receive automatic entry next year. No refunds will be given and the 2013 entry fee must be paid. This year’s race cost $255 for U.S. residents and $347 for international runners.>>
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Re: nyc marathon and weather

Postby tandfman » Wed Oct 31, 2012 1:05 pm

Let's see if that stands up. The NYRR had to backtrack a few months ago when they changed their bag pick-up policy. I'm guessing that the publicity over the non-refund policy could get even uglier.

I can understand why they want to keep the money. They're undoubtedly being saddled with all sorts of extra expenses because of Sandy--among other things, I'm sure the Mayor drove a hard bargain before agreeing to commit the resources that will be needed to clear the course. But still, I can foresee a loud outcry over this, and I wouldn't be surprised if the NYRR made some kind of accommodation beyond simply granting entry into next year's race (with full fees).
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Re: nyc marathon and weather

Postby guru » Wed Oct 31, 2012 1:11 pm

tandfman wrote:I can understand why they want to keep the money.



50,000 x $280 = $14 million
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Re: nyc marathon and weather

Postby tandfman » Wed Oct 31, 2012 1:13 pm

gh wrote:
tandfman wrote:Good Grief! Someone has opened this facebook page:

https://www.facebook.com/pages/Cancel-2 ... 5321179684

My own view is that if it can be run without endangering the participants, it should be run. And I haven't read anything yet that suggests that they won't be able to do that.

I'd be more concerned about "endangering" the residents of the city, whose police/fire/emergency services must already be stretched to the limit. I can well see what the average citizen might feel it's in bad taste to run. Screw the "show the world we're resilient" PR attitude.

Christine Brennan of USA Today agrees with you. (Story linked on front page.)
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Re: nyc marathon and weather

Postby DrJay » Wed Oct 31, 2012 2:00 pm

Too bad the race is not two or three weeks later (or rather, Sandy two or three weeks earlier.) That might enough time to safely and properly host it, and all the NYC rah-rah folks could use that as a coming-together-in-hurricane-recovery event.
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Re: nyc marathon and weather

Postby DrJay » Wed Oct 31, 2012 2:06 pm

gh wrote:
doug5321 wrote:
DrJay wrote:I talked to a friend yesterday whose wife is to do make her marathon debut in NYC, aiming for 2:30. If she can't get there, one option for her is Fukuoka, Dec 2. If a bunch of elite athletes can't get to NY, perhaps Fukuoka will have a loaded field this year.



fukuoka i believe is and has always been a mens only race.


In any case, Fukuoka doesn't seem to have the financial wherewithal to buy a loaded field, and that's the only way you get one in modern marathoning.


But if you're an elite runner, with two marathons a year in your legs and NYC was to be one of them, you're trained and fit, peaking now, what do you do? Look for another marathon in the next month, adjust your training for that as best you can? Are there any other reasonbaly big marathons in the next month? Or do find a couple of shorter road races to run, 10K to 20K? Or just blow it off and start spooling up for Boston, London, etc?
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