The Marathon advance


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The Marathon advance

Postby rhymans » Tue Oct 23, 2012 11:22 pm

4 years ago 100 men in the world ran 2:10:22 or better. In 2012 100 Kenyans have run 2:10:14 or better - so far. On the world list 2:08:36 marks 100th place, 119 are under 2:09, 164 sub-2:10 and 208 are under 2:11, and that's with quite a few international races left for the season.
It's difficult to imagine a 2 hour marathon - 2:01:57 would represent the pace of Zatopek's best 10000 time of 28:54.2 extended to the marathon distance, but it seems we are headed that way.
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Re: The Marathon advance

Postby Fielding Melish » Wed Oct 24, 2012 7:57 am

Of the 164 sub-2:10 marathoners, it looks like only 15 were definitely not born in Africa.

Not sure of Essa Rashed, Qatar. Another sub-2:10 Qatari was born in Kenya and changed name.

Japan has eight, Europe has 3, USA two (Ritzenhein & Hall), and BRA, one.
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Re: The Marathon advance

Postby LopenUupunut » Wed Oct 24, 2012 11:18 am

Fielding Melish wrote:Of the 164 sub-2:10 marathoners, it looks like only 15 were definitely not born in Africa.

Not sure of Essa Rashed, Qatar.
Another Kenyan :)
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Re: The Marathon advance

Postby DoubleRBar » Wed Oct 24, 2012 1:18 pm

Kenya would be difficult to beat in the four by marathon relay.
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Re: The Marathon advance

Postby 26mi235 » Wed Oct 24, 2012 7:49 pm

Before getting too excited about the rate at which the 2-hour marathon is being approached (I do not think it will be soon but others do), it might be good to remember that chap Lance and consider the likelihood that not all of those great times are 'natural' (especially in light of the German reporter investigating Kenya, although I have no firm idea of how valid his search results are).
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Re: The Marathon advance

Postby Conor Dary » Thu Oct 25, 2012 6:52 am

26mi235 wrote: it might be good to remember that chap Lance and consider the likelihood that not all of those great times are 'natural' (especially in light of the German reporter investigating Kenya, although I have no firm idea of how valid his search results are).


Who cares. You test people and if they flunk fine. Kick them out. But this endless babble about drugs and investigations....Why follow the sport if you think it is all drug aided and you think that is really awful.
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Re: The Marathon advance

Postby kuha » Thu Oct 25, 2012 7:15 am

26mi235 wrote:Before getting too excited about the rate at which the 2-hour marathon is being approached (I do not think it will be soon but others do), it might be good to remember that chap Lance and consider the likelihood that not all of those great times are 'natural' (especially in light of the German reporter investigating Kenya, although I have no firm idea of how valid his search results are).


Careful. If you are REALLY "serious" about being skeptical, then you will need to reserve doubt for nearly everything after the mid-1950s (steroids); the entire blood-doping era (probably beginning 1968); our old friend HGH (1983 on up?); and umpteen other kinds of hamburger helper. Is that really a swamp you want to wade into?

If the testing being done today isn't seen to mean much, then we need to just forget about it.
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Re: The Marathon advance

Postby aaronk » Thu Oct 25, 2012 12:24 pm

rhymans wrote:4 years ago 100 men in the world ran 2:10:22 or better. In 2012 100 Kenyans have run 2:10:14 or better - so far. On the world list 2:08:36 marks 100th place, 119 are under 2:09, 164 sub-2:10 and 208 are under 2:11, and that's with quite a few international races left for the season.
It's difficult to imagine a 2 hour marathon - 2:01:57 would represent the pace of Zatopek's best 10000 time of 28:54.2 extended to the marathon distance, but it seems we are headed that way.


It would take an average per mile of 4:34.9 to reach 2:00:00 (or 1:59:59.9!!) in the marathon.

That means 13 two milers back-to-back in 9:09.8.
That means eight 5K's of approximately 14:12.7 in a row, non-stop, then another 2195 meters!!
That mean's two 10 milers in 45:49.0, then a 10K in 28:22 without any rest.
That means four consecutive 10K's of approximately 28:25 each, non-stop.
That means 105 laps of a 400 meter track in 68.75 each lap, then another 195 meters at the same pace.

Hope it happens in my lifetime, but......!!!
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Re: The Marathon advance

Postby lonewolf » Thu Oct 25, 2012 3:51 pm

Mind boggling. :shock: . and they are only 4 minutes out now..about 9 seconds per mile.. of course shaving that last nine seconds comes pretty hard if you are running 26 x 4:44....
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Re: The Marathon advance

Postby 26mi235 » Thu Oct 25, 2012 5:44 pm

Conor Dary wrote:
26mi235 wrote: it might be good to remember that chap Lance and consider the likelihood that not all of those great times are 'natural' (especially in light of the German reporter investigating Kenya, although I have no firm idea of how valid his search results are).


Who cares. You test people and if they flunk fine. Kick them out. But this endless babble about drugs and investigations....Why follow the sport if you think it is all drug aided and you think that is really awful.


Is it in the back of my mind that at least of the the improvement in the marathon times is due to things not legit. However, it is a reason to keep from going overboard about getting to that mark. Part of the big rain comes from two sources: 1) the courses and the assistance during the races is so much better; and 2) the depth is so much bigger. On 1), we have probably seen the bulk of the improvement due to courses and assistance. As to two, depth is particularly important in the marathon because you can only do two a year and the likelihood that something goes wrong (weather -- warm or windy; cramp; etc) that you cannot rely on one person driving the improvement but on a dozen because then the number of 'chances' in a year is much larger.
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Re: The Marathon advance

Postby bambam » Thu Oct 25, 2012 6:54 pm

DoubleRBar wrote:Kenya would be difficult to beat in the four by marathon relay.


Well, they have to get the baton around, you know.
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