Jasontonice wrote:Can't have it both ways
Oh yes I can.
I'd put the odds at 50-1 against it.
But NO ONE would be surprised if he did; he's just too talented.
Marlow, you need to rethink your interpretation of odds. Either that, or don't go to the casino.
If you give someone 50-1 odds against, the only possible reason to add "But I wouldn't be surprised if he won" is to CYA. One is probability-based, the other is emotion-based. If you believe he likely will not: say it! If he doesn't, you can say "I told you so." If he does, you can say "Oh, gee, I was wrong."