Rudisha loses...Eaton AOY?? [or Merritt?!]


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Re: Rudisha loses...Eaton AOY??

Postby mump boy » Thu Sep 06, 2012 3:06 pm

For me setting a WR, in a non sprint event, in an Olympic final, tops any other kind of achievement in Track and Field and more than compensates for one end of sea on loss. If Eaton had competed and won another time, or if we could could include indoor Hep in our consideration, it may be a closer run thing but as it is Rudisha for me.

Eaton

Can't choose between

Merrit
Harting
Bolt

at the moment

Farah but he could easily be demoted as his season outside of OG is very thin

So without looking anyone up, Taylor, Lavillenie and James and Pars come into play. Actually looking at that lot Mo is safe in 6th but deffo won't go any higher
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Re: Rudisha loses...Eaton AOY??

Postby nevetsllim » Fri Sep 07, 2012 4:33 am

I'm going for Rudisha as AOY too. I'm not going to hold his defeat to Aman against him when comparing Rudisha to Eaton simply because of the nature of the events. If he'd had 3-4 losses on the circuit, then I'd give the nod to Eaton but one loss doesn't blemish his 2012 record when he's competed frequently compared to Eaton's two.

To win it as a multi-eventer (or as a marathon/walks specialist), I think every performance has to be of a hugely distinguished standard. Eaton's victory in London was fantastic but it wasn't an Olympic record and he was somewhat down on his best in a few events. Had he achieved an OR or gone over 8900 for the best ever mark in a championships, then the balance would probably tip in Eaton's favour. Instead, his performance was the ninth best ever, while Rudisha has produced a WR and the eighth fastest time ever (and the twelfth).

Both great athletes but Rudisha nabs it this year.

mump boy wrote:
Can't choose between

Merrit
Harting
Bolt


I'd probably put Merritt just below the other two. He lost two early-season races (fourth in Shanghai, second in Eugene) and had two DQs (New York and Lausanne). I'm assuming the DQs count as losses to the people judging it?
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Re: Rudisha loses...Eaton AOY??

Postby mump boy » Fri Sep 07, 2012 6:49 am

nevetsllim wrote:I'm going for Rudisha as AOY too. I'm not going to hold his defeat to Aman against him when comparing Rudisha to Eaton simply because of the nature of the events. If he'd had 3-4 losses on the circuit, then I'd give the nod to Eaton but one loss doesn't blemish his 2012 record when he's competed frequently compared to Eaton's two.

To win it as a multi-eventer (or as a marathon/walks specialist), I think every performance has to be of a hugely distinguished standard. Eaton's victory in London was fantastic but it wasn't an Olympic record and he was somewhat down on his best in a few events. Had he achieved an OR or gone over 8900 for the best ever mark in a championships, then the balance would probably tip in Eaton's favour. Instead, his performance was the ninth best ever, while Rudisha has produced a WR and the eighth fastest time ever (and the twelfth).

Both great athletes but Rudisha nabs it this year.

mump boy wrote:
Can't choose between

Merrit
Harting
Bolt


I'd probably put Merritt just below the other two. He lost two early-season races (fourth in Shanghai, second in Eugene) and had two DQs (New York and Lausanne). I'm assuming the DQs count as losses to the people judging it?


I know marks aren't supposed to count for much but the quality of his races is far superior to the others

12.96w (2) Eugene
12.93 (1) OT
12.93 (1) London
12.93 (1) Monaco
12.94 (1) OG Semi
12.92 (1) OG
12.95 (1) Birmingham
12.97 (1) Berlin

this kind of consistency and ubiquity is worth more than a couple of loses :?
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Re: Rudisha loses...Eaton AOY??

Postby Flumpy » Fri Sep 07, 2012 10:30 am

Problem solved :mrgreen:
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Re: Rudisha loses...Eaton AOY??

Postby j-a-m » Fri Sep 07, 2012 10:32 am

Merritt !!!
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Re: Rudisha loses...Eaton AOY??

Postby marknhj » Fri Sep 07, 2012 10:32 am

Yep!
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Re: Rudisha loses...Eaton AOY??

Postby beebee » Fri Sep 07, 2012 10:43 am

Things just changed folks...

A big WR, Olympic Championship, and one of the best hurdling seasons ever.
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Re: Rudisha loses...Eaton AOY??

Postby Tuariki » Fri Sep 07, 2012 10:46 am

Tuariki wrote:IMO as it stands today it is Rudisha, then Eaton as:
1. I rate Rudisha's WR performance higher than Eaton's
2. Rudisha's number of wins with quality performances
3. It is not that difficult to go undefeated if you only compete twice

The only athlete that could upset that scenario is Merritt. IMO if he can break the WR then he would go to the top for AOY.

As I am no longer a politician then I am no longer allowed to be a hypocrite.
And so 12.80 does it for me.
#1 Merrit
#2 Rudisha
#3 Eaton
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Re: Rudisha loses...Eaton AOY??

Postby jamal00005 » Fri Sep 07, 2012 11:00 am

Tuariki wrote:
Tuariki wrote:IMO as it stands today it is Rudisha, then Eaton as:
1. I rate Rudisha's WR performance higher than Eaton's
2. Rudisha's number of wins with quality performances
3. It is not that difficult to go undefeated if you only compete twice

The only athlete that could upset that scenario is Merritt. IMO if he can break the WR then he would go to the top for AOY.

As I am no longer a politician then I am no longer allowed to be a hypocrite.
And so 12.80 does it for me.
#1 Merrit
#2 Rudisha
#3 Eaton


I completely agree Merrit just did it for me
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Re: Rudisha loses...Eaton AOY??

Postby Flumpy » Fri Sep 07, 2012 11:03 am

#1 - Merrit
#2 - Rudisha
#3 - Eaton
#4 - Harting
#5 - Farah
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Re: Rudisha loses...Eaton AOY??

Postby Tuariki » Fri Sep 07, 2012 11:04 am

Flumpy wrote:#1 - Merrit
#2 - Rudisha
#3 - Eaton
#4 - Harting
#5 - Farah

Yep. That's 1 to 5 IMO also
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Re: Rudisha loses...Eaton AOY??

Postby tm71 » Fri Sep 07, 2012 11:06 am

doesn't he MERRITT the AOY now ? lol !!!
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Re: Rudisha loses...Eaton AOY??

Postby mump boy » Fri Sep 07, 2012 11:31 am

Tuariki wrote:
Flumpy wrote:#1 - Merrit
#2 - Rudisha
#3 - Eaton
#4 - Harting
#5 - Farah

Yep. That's 1 to 5 IMO also


HAven't you forgotten someone ??

Where's Bolt ? and i wouldn't mind Blake before Farah as well
Last edited by mump boy on Fri Sep 07, 2012 11:34 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Rudisha loses...Eaton AOY?? [or Merritt?!]

Postby gh » Fri Sep 07, 2012 11:33 am

How can Blake possibly be ahead of Bolt?
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Re: Rudisha loses...Eaton AOY?? [or Merritt?!]

Postby mump boy » Fri Sep 07, 2012 11:35 am

gh wrote:How can Blake possibly be ahead of Bolt?


You beat me to it Gaz, i just assumed he's included Bolt but when re read i saw the error of his ways

Bolt and very possibly Blake are in front of Farah who has a very contrived and weak season outside of London
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Re: Rudisha loses...Eaton AOY?? [or Merritt?!]

Postby MightyBurner » Fri Sep 07, 2012 11:41 am

And Bolt and Blake have raced each other three times. In championship finals.
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Re: Rudisha loses...Eaton AOY?? [or Merritt?!]

Postby dbirds » Fri Sep 07, 2012 11:43 am

The question is: how do you rank a false start? On paper, it's last place but really it's not. Thoughts??
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Re: Rudisha loses...Eaton AOY?? [or Merritt?!]

Postby mump boy » Fri Sep 07, 2012 11:57 am

MightyBurner wrote:And Bolt and Blake have raced each other three times. In championship finals.


This is true but Mo has basically raced no one apart from Eugene. 2 meaningless, contrived races in UK and the European champs !!

Bolt and Blake may not have raced each other much but they have raced lots against everyone else and at a VERY high level
Last edited by mump boy on Fri Sep 07, 2012 3:57 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Rudisha loses...Eaton AOY?? [or Merritt?!]

Postby j-a-m » Fri Sep 07, 2012 12:20 pm

dbirds wrote:The question is: how do you rank a false start? On paper, it's last place but really it's not. Thoughts??

Depends on the specifics. Merritt, when he false started recently, risked a lot because he wanted to get the WR. Had he run "only" to win, he'd risked less and won. Based on that specific explanation, I wouldn't count it against him.
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Re: Rudisha loses...Eaton AOY?? [or Merritt?!]

Postby j-a-m » Fri Sep 07, 2012 12:22 pm

Once you talk about top 5, I believe Lavillenie should be included in the conversation. I've got him at #5, behind Bolt, and just ahead of Harting and Farah.
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Re: Rudisha loses...Eaton AOY?? [or Merritt?!]

Postby MightyBurner » Fri Sep 07, 2012 12:25 pm

mump boy wrote:
MightyBurner wrote:And Bolt and Blake have raced each other three times. In championship finals.


This is true but Mo has basically raced no one no one apart from Eugene. 2 meaningless, contrived races in UK and the European champs !!

Bolt and Blake may not have raced each other much but they have raced lots against everyone else and at a VERY high level

Huh? He beat Rupp on multiple occasions.. As far as I remember, Rupp was second to him in the 10k.
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Re: Rudisha loses...Eaton AOY?? [or Merritt?!]

Postby mump boy » Fri Sep 07, 2012 12:32 pm

j-a-m wrote:Once you talk about top 5, I believe Lavillenie should be included in the conversation. I've got him at #5, behind Bolt, and just ahead of Harting and Farah.


There is NO WAY Lavillenie is ahead of Harting but i'd be happy to see loads of other people ahead of Mo though.
Last edited by mump boy on Sat Sep 08, 2012 2:15 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Rudisha loses...Eaton AOY?? [or Merritt?!]

Postby mal » Fri Sep 07, 2012 12:58 pm

The fork goes into this argument
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Re: Rudisha loses...Eaton AOY?? [or Merritt?!]

Postby Half Miler » Fri Sep 07, 2012 3:15 pm

mump boy wrote:There is NO WAY Lavillenie is ahead of Harting but i'd be happy to see loads of people others ahead of Mo though.


Agreed. Historically, distance doublers get a bit too much credit and throwers not nearly enough.
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Re: Rudisha loses...Eaton AOY??

Postby Flumpy » Fri Sep 07, 2012 3:26 pm

Tuariki wrote:
Flumpy wrote:#1 - Merrit
#2 - Rudisha
#3 - Eaton
#4 - Harting
#5 - Farah

Yep. That's 1 to 5 IMO also


It's a toss up for #5 for me between Mo and Usain for 5th. Mo hardly competed but Usain ducked his biggest competitor unless he had no choice.

I'm also vaguely wavering on Merritt. His 2 DQ's technically count as loses so that's 4 he had during the year. Does that outweigh his other other accomplishments when he has such strong opposition? :?
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Re: Rudisha loses...Eaton AOY??

Postby Flumpy » Fri Sep 07, 2012 3:27 pm

mump boy wrote:
Tuariki wrote:
Flumpy wrote:#1 - Merrit
#2 - Rudisha
#3 - Eaton
#4 - Harting
#5 - Farah

Yep. That's 1 to 5 IMO also


HAven't you forgotten someone ??

Where's Bolt ? and i wouldn't mind Blake before Farah as well


Blake??? Who couldn't even win an individual Gold Medal? against someone who won 2??? :?
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Re: Rudisha loses...Eaton AOY?? [or Merritt?!]

Postby Flumpy » Fri Sep 07, 2012 3:33 pm

j-a-m wrote:Once you talk about top 5, I believe Lavillenie should be included in the conversation. I've got him at #5, behind Bolt, and just ahead of Harting and Farah.


Lavillenie is in my mix for 5th along with Farah and Bolt but Harting has to be ahead of all the others.
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Re: Rudisha loses...Eaton AOY?? [or Merritt?!]

Postby gh » Fri Sep 07, 2012 3:36 pm

dbirds wrote:The question is: how do you rank a false start? On paper, it's last place but really it's not. Thoughts??


How could it be anything but last place? 7 guys crossed the line ahead of you, and it's your fault you weren't there, not theirs.
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Re: Rudisha loses...Eaton AOY?? [or Merritt?!]

Postby mump boy » Fri Sep 07, 2012 3:58 pm

MightyBurner wrote:
mump boy wrote:
MightyBurner wrote:And Bolt and Blake have raced each other three times. In championship finals.


This is true but Mo has basically raced no one no one apart from Eugene. 2 meaningless, contrived races in UK and the European champs !!

Bolt and Blake may not have raced each other much but they have raced lots against everyone else and at a VERY high level

Huh? He beat Rupp on multiple occasions.. As far as I remember, Rupp was second to him in the 10k.


Outside of london
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Re: Rudisha loses...Eaton AOY??

Postby mump boy » Fri Sep 07, 2012 4:05 pm

Flumpy wrote:
Tuariki wrote:
Flumpy wrote:#1 - Merrit
#2 - Rudisha
#3 - Eaton
#4 - Harting
#5 - Farah

Yep. That's 1 to 5 IMO also


It's a toss up for #5 for me between Mo and Usain for 5th. Mo hardly competed but Usain ducked his biggest competitor unless he had no choice.



Are you drunk ? he may have ducked Blake (and visa versa) but who was Mo racing against at the Euro Champs, the heats of the UK champs, a contrived 2 mile race won in 8.23 or was that 5k against Collis Birmingham the high quality competition you're looking for ??

Usain's Season

100m 05.05 Kingston Jamaica International Invitational 1. 9.82
100m 25.05 Ostrava Golden Spike 1. 10.04
100m 31.05 Roma Golden Gala 1. 9.76
100m 07.06 Oslo ExxonMobil Bislett Games 1. 9.79
100m 29.06 Kingston Jamaican Ch. 2. 9.86
200m 01.07 Kingston Jamaican Ch. 2. 19.83
100m 05.08 London Olympic Games 1. 9.63
200m 09.08 London Olympic Games 1. 19.32
4x100m 11.08 London Olympic Games 1. 36.84
200m 23.08 Lausanne Athletissima 1. 19.58
200m 30.08 Zürich Weltklasse 1. 19.66
100m 07.09 Bruxelles Memorial Van Damme 1. 9.86

These massively superior marks certainly make up for the couple of losses
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Re: Rudisha loses...Eaton AOY??

Postby mump boy » Fri Sep 07, 2012 4:07 pm

Flumpy wrote:
mump boy wrote:
Tuariki wrote:
Flumpy wrote:#1 - Merrit
#2 - Rudisha
#3 - Eaton
#4 - Harting
#5 - Farah

Yep. That's 1 to 5 IMO also


HAven't you forgotten someone ??

Where's Bolt ? and i wouldn't mind Blake before Farah as well


Blake??? Who couldn't even win an individual Gold Medal? against someone who won 2??? :?


Against the highest quality competition with a series of times right up there on the all time list. I think his series of races is far superior to Mo, even if he came 2nd
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Re: Rudisha loses...Eaton AOY?? [or Merritt?!]

Postby user4 » Fri Sep 07, 2012 4:24 pm

Eaton or Merritt!.. The 110H is like a mini 12 second Deca anyways.
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Re: Rudisha loses...Eaton AOY??

Postby Flumpy » Sat Sep 08, 2012 6:22 am

mump boy wrote:Are you drunk ? he may have ducked Blake (and visa versa) but who was Mo racing against at the Euro Champs, the heats of the UK champs, a contrived 2 mile race won in 8.23 or was that 5k against Collis Birmingham the high quality competition you're looking for ??

Usain's Season

100m 05.05 Kingston Jamaica International Invitational 1. 9.82
100m 25.05 Ostrava Golden Spike 1. 10.04
100m 31.05 Roma Golden Gala 1. 9.76
100m 07.06 Oslo ExxonMobil Bislett Games 1. 9.79
100m 29.06 Kingston Jamaican Ch. 2. 9.86
200m 01.07 Kingston Jamaican Ch. 2. 19.83
100m 05.08 London Olympic Games 1. 9.63
200m 09.08 London Olympic Games 1. 19.32
4x100m 11.08 London Olympic Games 1. 36.84
200m 23.08 Lausanne Athletissima 1. 19.58
200m 30.08 Zürich Weltklasse 1. 19.66
100m 07.09 Bruxelles Memorial Van Damme 1. 9.86

These massively superior marks certainly make up for the couple of losses


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=efl5pFTF ... page#t=23s
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Re: Rudisha loses...Eaton AOY??

Postby mump boy » Sat Sep 08, 2012 9:11 am

Flumpy wrote:
mump boy wrote:Are you drunk ? he may have ducked Blake (and visa versa) but who was Mo racing against at the Euro Champs, the heats of the UK champs, a contrived 2 mile race won in 8.23 or was that 5k against Collis Birmingham the high quality competition you're looking for ??

Usain's Season

100m 05.05 Kingston Jamaica International Invitational 1. 9.82
100m 25.05 Ostrava Golden Spike 1. 10.04
100m 31.05 Roma Golden Gala 1. 9.76
100m 07.06 Oslo ExxonMobil Bislett Games 1. 9.79
100m 29.06 Kingston Jamaican Ch. 2. 9.86
200m 01.07 Kingston Jamaican Ch. 2. 19.83
100m 05.08 London Olympic Games 1. 9.63
200m 09.08 London Olympic Games 1. 19.32
4x100m 11.08 London Olympic Games 1. 36.84
200m 23.08 Lausanne Athletissima 1. 19.58
200m 30.08 Zürich Weltklasse 1. 19.66
100m 07.09 Bruxelles Memorial Van Damme 1. 9.86

These massively superior marks certainly make up for the couple of losses


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=efl5pFTF ... page#t=23s


Are you just showing me that for the lobes ?
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Re: Rudisha loses...Eaton AOY?? [or Merritt?!]

Postby DecFan » Mon Sep 10, 2012 9:15 am

Updating an earlier post, adding stats for Merritt's WR and current season:

WR superiority to 2nd best performer ever:
Rudisha: 0.20%
Eaton: 0.14%
Merritt: 0.55%

WR superiority to average of next 5 best performers ever:
Rudisha 0.80%
Eaton 1.36%
Merritt 0.70%

WR superiority to average of next 10 best performers ever:
Rudisha 1.15%
Eaton 2.02%
Merritt 0.87%

WR superiority to average of next 5 best PERFORMANCES ever:
Rudisha 0.59%
Eaton 1.07%
Merritt 0.66%
(Note: Performances by someone other than Rudisha/Eaton/Merritt)

WR superiority to average of next 10 best Performances ever:
Rudisha 0.86%
Eaton 1.60%
Merritt 0.76%

# of next 10 best performers beaten this year:
Rudisha: 5 (#4 Amos, #6 Kaki, #9 Borzakovsky, #10 Kitum, #11 Aman)
Eaton: 3 (#2 Sebrle, #7 Clay, #10 Hardee)
Merritt: 4 (#2 Robles, #3 Liu, #4 Oliver, #11 Trammell)

# of top 10 performances all time Rudisha/Eaton/Merritt have in 2012, excluding their previous years' results
Rudisha 3 (#1, #4, #8)
Eaton 2 (#1, #8)
Merritt 1 (#1)
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Re: Rudisha loses...Eaton AOY?? [or Merritt?!]

Postby 26mi235 » Mon Sep 10, 2012 2:14 pm

Several comments.

The frequency domain for the events implies that 'top 10' marks in the Decathlon are more like the 'top 25 (or even 50)', especially in the hurdles.

The hurdles are a hard event to go undefeated in because: 1) top hurdlers face each other with great frequency; 2) lots of top races are run during the season; 3) the technical constraints of getting your feet in etc at tight and the consequences sever. and, of course, 4) xxxx happens.

Finally, due to the constraints on the hurdles an increment of performance is sort of a 'quadratic' cost, so now an improvement of 0.07 requires not only going faster but doing so without having more space to do so.
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Re: Rudisha loses...Eaton AOY?? [or Merritt?!]

Postby Ned Ryerson » Mon Sep 10, 2012 3:18 pm

DecFan wrote:# of top 10 performances all time Rudisha/Eaton/Merritt have in 2012, excluding their previous years' results
Rudisha 3 (#1, #4, #8)
Eaton 2 (#1, #8)
Merritt 1 (#1)


Pretty astounding that anything slower than 12.91 (the world record just over six years ago) won't get into the top 10 all-time performance list.
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Re: Rudisha loses...Eaton AOY?? [or Merritt?!]

Postby bobguild76 » Mon Sep 10, 2012 10:12 pm

Shades of 1995, when Kiptanui ran his epic sub-8:00 Steeple at Weltklasse, plus another sub-8, plus a short lived 5k WR ... and finished FIFTH in the AOY. Edwards blew past 59', 18m, and 60' in the TJ on multiple occasions ... and finished SECOND. Of course, that year Geb had a season for the ages.

Same this year. Merritt's 12.80 puts a sharp tip on the finest hurdling season since Hot-Rod Milburn took AOY in 1971. (Slightly better than Skeets in 1981.) According to the Jan 1972 AOY edition of T&FN (page 4), Milburn's AAU semi-final in 1971 was auto-timed in 12.94. gh, could you correct me if that has changed? Thx.

In my opinion, the 12.80 easily pushes Merritt to at least 3rd place. Four losses (2 of them DQ) tarnishes his record in comparison to Rudisha. They both met their stiffest competition regularly, though Merritt did so more often.

In a way, the Merritt/Rudisha choice is similar to to College football BCS ratings. If you are going to lose, do it early, not at the end of the season. Our last sight of Rudisha is his 2nd place at Zurich. Our last sight of Merritt is 12.80. But last impressions sometimes skew our memories of the entire season. The wild card is how to assess Eaton's amazing season.

My thoughts are; 1. Rudisha, 2. Eaton, 3. Merritt

Bolt's continued high end marks are partially offset by his reluctance to meet Blake, but the 2 OG golds speak loudly. He gets 4th. Then Harting, Farah, Blake, and Lavillenie.
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Rudisha loses...Eaton AOY?? [or Merritt?!]

Postby bobguild76 » Tue Sep 11, 2012 10:15 pm

An additional thought regarding AOY ... Barring his disappointing Bronze medal at the Olympics, Reese Hoffa has been quite dominating in the SP. Yes, the bronze is a fair sized blemish (compared to other AOY contenders) on his 2012 record, but he has met the top competition even more than the 110 hurdlers, and has been stellar otherwise.

Honors won - B at OG, DL winner in SP w/ double the points of the runner-up, Majewski,
Won/Loss record - One loss to Majewski & Storl, Perfect (I think) vs everyone else,
Sequence of marks - consistent 21 meter throws. Cantwell has the yearly lead, but Hoffa has the high end consistency.

Easily the top SP, and # 9 or 10 in AOY.
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Re: Rudisha loses...Eaton AOY?? [or Merritt?!]

Postby mump boy » Wed Sep 12, 2012 1:00 am

bobguild76 wrote:An additional thought regarding AOY ... Barring his disappointing Bronze medal at the Olympics, Reese Hoffa has been quite dominating in the SP. Yes, the bronze is a fair sized blemish (compared to other AOY contenders) on his 2012 record, but he has met the top competition even more than the 110 hurdlers, and has been stellar otherwise.

Honors won - B at OG, DL winner in SP w/ double the points of the runner-up, Majewski,
Won/Loss record - One loss to Majewski & Storl, Perfect (I think) vs everyone else,
Sequence of marks - consistent 21 meter throws. Cantwell has the yearly lead, but Hoffa has the high end consistency.

Easily the top SP, and # 9 or 10 in AOY.


I don't see how someone with OG bronze and other loses gets ranked unless he's done something else outstanding performance wise

Rudisha
Merrit
Eaton
Bolt
Harting
Farah
Lavellenie
Blake
James
Ukhov
A Walker (i have no idea)


must all come before Hoffa
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