Rudisha loses...Eaton AOY?? [or Merritt?!]


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Re: Rudisha loses...Eaton AOY??

Postby j-a-m » Sat Sep 01, 2012 2:03 pm

18.99s wrote:When looking at how long the WR stood, the athlete's own previous WRs shouldn't count. In the battle of WR longevity with the current WR holder vs. everybody else in history, I go back to the record held by the previous athlete, and performances by other athletes that are better than the previous WR holder but not good enough to be a new record.

That's a valid point, and the correct way to look at it.
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Re: Rudisha loses...Eaton AOY??

Postby Dave » Sat Sep 01, 2012 4:01 pm

dbirds wrote:Eaton set world decathlon records in the 100m and long jump and set WRs in the heptathlon and decathlons! He beat a 2-time defending world
Champion Trey hardee twice. Many former
Decathletes and historians call Eaton the best decathlete ever. He has taken the event to
The next level. There's really nothing more he could
Have feasibly done in 2012!


I agree that there is nothing more he could have feasibly done this year. I am curious what others think he needs to do to be the GOAT. 3 WR in the Hep, the WR in the Decathlon, and now the gold medal. So, another gold medal? Another WR or two in the Hep? Another WR in the Dec?
I'll be shocked if he doesn't add another hundred points to the his Hep in the next couple years and another hundred or so in the Dec before it is all over. By the time he has finished with it, it will take 20-30 years for someone to beat his heptathlon record.
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Re: Rudisha loses...Eaton AOY??

Postby 26mi235 » Sat Sep 01, 2012 4:32 pm

j-a-m wrote:
18.99s wrote:When looking at how long the WR stood, the athlete's own previous WRs shouldn't count. In the battle of WR longevity with the current WR holder vs. everybody else in history, I go back to the record held by the previous athlete, and performances by other athletes that are better than the previous WR holder but not good enough to be a new record.

That's a valid point, and the correct way to look at it.


Correct way to look at it except that his WR got him last year's AOY points. The WR was a mere one year ago and only a little bit. What is more impressive is that very few WRs have been set in races longer than 400m in the OGs or even the WCs.
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Re: Rudisha loses...Eaton AOY??

Postby dbirds » Sat Sep 01, 2012 5:53 pm

General question: how many WRs have been set in worst conditions than Eatons?
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Re: Rudisha loses...Eaton AOY??

Postby mrbowie » Sat Sep 01, 2012 6:24 pm

Bolt AOY
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Re: Rudisha loses...Eaton AOY??

Postby bushop » Sat Sep 01, 2012 6:25 pm

dbirds wrote:General question: how many WRs have been set in worst conditions than Eatons?

Compared to the typical ½ mile WRs Rudisha's pacemakerless time trial sub-1:41 was in pretty harsh conditions.
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Re: Rudisha loses...Eaton AOY??

Postby nianchengyu » Sat Sep 01, 2012 8:50 pm

If Eaton can take another dec in WCallenges or adding some good LJs in DL,he will definately got my vote even if his below-par oly peformance.
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Re: Rudisha loses...Eaton AOY??

Postby j-a-m » Sat Sep 01, 2012 10:19 pm

26mi235 wrote:Correct way to look at it except that his WR got him last year's AOY points.

Good point, hadn't thought of that. We are after all talking about achievements in a given year, and not about career achievements.
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Re: Rudisha loses...Eaton AOY??

Postby toyracer » Sun Sep 02, 2012 5:12 am

mrbowie wrote:Bolt AOY


Being beaten at his national championships in each event takes the shine off the Bolt apple.
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Re: Rudisha loses...Eaton AOY??

Postby j-a-m » Sun Sep 02, 2012 5:15 am

toyracer wrote:Being beaten at his national championships in each event takes the shine off the Bolt apple.

Then again, those were the Trials, with the main goal to finish in the top three to make the team. And Bolt easily did that.
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Re: Rudisha loses...Eaton AOY??

Postby mump boy » Sun Sep 02, 2012 6:18 am

j-a-m wrote:
toyracer wrote:Being beaten at his national championships in each event takes the shine off the Bolt apple.

Then again, those were the Trials, with the main goal to finish in the top three to make the team. And Bolt easily did that.


You really don't understand the concept of judging AOY do you ? :?
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Re: Rudisha loses...Eaton AOY??

Postby dbirds » Sun Sep 02, 2012 6:20 am

If Eaton can take another dec in WCallenges or adding some good LJs in DL,he will definately got my vote even if his below-par oly peformance.


Below par? It was the 9th best Performance ever, 2nd best Olympic performance ever, ahead of Bryan Clay and Daley thompsons career best and his 2nd best ever mark!
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Re: Rudisha loses...Eaton AOY??

Postby j-a-m » Sun Sep 02, 2012 6:29 am

mump boy wrote:You really don't understand the concept of judging AOY do you ? :?

Why don't you explain it to me then
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Re: Rudisha loses...Eaton AOY??

Postby mump boy » Sun Sep 02, 2012 6:53 am

Well for a start it's based on certifiable facts not undefinable personal opinion.

It doesn't matter what Bolt's motivation was at the trials, the FACT is that he lost twice and this will be held against him when it comes to judging him against his peers. Especially those that haven't lost and/or have set WR, it is impossible for him to be placed above them.
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Re: Rudisha loses...Eaton AOY??

Postby Marlow » Sun Sep 02, 2012 7:00 am

mump boy wrote:It doesn't matter what Bolt's motivation was at the trials, the FACT is that he lost twice and this will be held against him when it comes to judging him against his peers.

True dat. AOY is reserved for the guy was was on his game ALL the time, regardless of circumstances. I hate seeing a Bolt or Rudisha losing AOY on a smaller stage, but it is what it is. I'll be astounded if Eaton ain't it now.
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Re: Rudisha loses...Eaton AOY??

Postby j-a-m » Sun Sep 02, 2012 7:03 am

mump boy wrote:the FACT is that he lost twice

The fact is that he finished second in a race in which the first three places secured a spot on the Jamaican team for the Olympics.
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Re: Rudisha loses...Eaton AOY??

Postby mump boy » Sun Sep 02, 2012 7:08 am

j-a-m wrote:
mump boy wrote:the FACT is that he lost twice

The fact is that he finished second in a race in which the first three places secured a spot on the Jamaican team for the Olympics.


IRRELEVANT when judging AOY, they were loses. Or can anyone who loses say oh i wasn't motivated ? we have to deal in cold hard facts not surmisations.

Let's also consider the fact that he's spent the rest of the year conspicuously avoiding his biggest rivals, Harding, Rudisha and Merrit have ducked no one
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Re: Rudisha loses...Eaton AOY??

Postby bobguild76 » Sun Sep 02, 2012 7:27 am

Dave wrote:
dbirds wrote:Eaton set world decathlon records in the 100m and long jump and set WRs in the heptathlon and decathlons! He beat a 2-time defending world
Champion Trey hardee twice. Many former
Decathletes and historians call Eaton the best decathlete ever. He has taken the event to
The next level. There's really nothing more he could
Have feasibly done in 2012!


I agree that there is nothing more he could have feasibly done this year. I am curious what others think he needs to do to be the GOAT. 3 WR in the Hep, the WR in the Decathlon, and now the gold medal. So, another gold medal? Another WR or two in the Hep? Another WR in the Dec?
I'll be shocked if he doesn't add another hundred points to the his Hep in the next couple years and another hundred or so in the Dec before it is all over. By the time he has finished with it, it will take 20-30 years for someone to beat his heptathlon record.


There is no question that Eaton, in the words of gh, is the best decathlete ever. No question that he has the potential to become the greatest Dec ever. To answer your GOAT question, let's look at Daley Thompson ...

Two OG golds,
4 WRs,
Undefeated 1979-1986, facing all his major challengers.

Give Eaton a few more years, and I think he could very well equal or eclipse DT's record. Then, we can talk about GOAT. I also think his Hep record, while the best ever, doesn't necessarily bolster his Dec cv. Eaton's forte is the running/jumping portion of the Dec, and the Hep is tilted towards that. So he is a natural fit for the Hep, even more so than the Dec.

I also agree with mump-boy's comment regarding Bolt ... yes, he had a stellar season, but the fact is he lost to Blake twice, and did not race him other than the Jamaican Trials and the Olympics. Similar lack of racing Gatlin & Gay outside of the Olympics. Whether it was his back or something else, the fact is he only faced his stiffest competitors once or twice. Rudisha faced his stiffest competitors far more frequently.
Last edited by bobguild76 on Sun Sep 02, 2012 7:45 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Rudisha loses...Eaton AOY??

Postby bushop » Sun Sep 02, 2012 7:40 am

Marlow wrote:AOY is reserved for the guy was was on his game ALL the time, regardless of circumstances. I hate seeing a Bolt or Rudisha losing AOY on a smaller stage, but it is what it is. I'll be astounded if Eaton ain't it now.

For the sake if discussion. Would it hurt Bolt's AOY resumé if he ran, and lost, a 400m running 44-high.
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Re: Rudisha loses...Eaton AOY??

Postby Tuariki » Sun Sep 02, 2012 7:51 am

bushop wrote:
Marlow wrote:AOY is reserved for the guy was was on his game ALL the time, regardless of circumstances. I hate seeing a Bolt or Rudisha losing AOY on a smaller stage, but it is what it is. I'll be astounded if Eaton ain't it now.

For the sake if discussion. Would it hurt Bolt's AOY resumé if he ran, and lost, a 400m running 44-high.

Given comments on wAOY thread does it hurt Eaton that he was 3rd in LJ at Walnut?
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Re: Rudisha loses...Eaton AOY??

Postby Conor Dary » Sun Sep 02, 2012 7:57 am

Tuariki wrote:
Given comments on wAOY thread does it hurt Eaton that he was 3rd in LJ at Walnut?


Was he now? That is enough for me. DR is the Man!
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Re: Rudisha loses...Eaton AOY??

Postby Tuariki » Sun Sep 02, 2012 8:02 am

Conor Dary wrote:
Tuariki wrote:
Given comments on wAOY thread does it hurt Eaton that he was 3rd in LJ at Walnut?


Was he now? That is enough for me. DR is the Man!

Same for me
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Re: Rudisha loses...Eaton AOY??

Postby hc10003 » Sun Sep 02, 2012 8:31 am

mump boy wrote: j-a-m wrote:

mump boy wrote:the FACT is that he lost twice


The fact is that he finished second in a race in which the first three places secured a spot on the Jamaican team for the Olympics.



IRRELEVANT when judging AOY, they were loses. Or can anyone who loses say oh i wasn't motivated ? we have to deal in cold hard facts not surmisations.

Marlow wrote:True dat. AOY is reserved for the guy was was on his game ALL the time, regardless of circumstances. I hate seeing a Bolt or Rudisha losing AOY on a smaller stage, but it is what it is. I'll be astounded if Eaton ain't it now.


This raises an interesting issue, specific to national trials: if the goal of trials is simply to qualify for OG, aren't they tantamount to heats? No one would devalue Farah's resume by stating that he was 3rd in the race on Aug 8 in London -- the sole goal was to finish top 5 to advance to the finals. If you view national trials that way, as a qualifying heat for the OG, then perhaps they carry equal (i.e., minimal) weight to an OG heat? Not really arguing one side or the other, but curious to hear thoughts on the trials vs heats issue.
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Re: Rudisha loses...Eaton AOY??

Postby 18.99s » Sun Sep 02, 2012 8:49 am

Bolt wasn't running in the Jamaican trials merely to qualify. He wanted to win those races, but he couldn't. Nobody deliberately runs 2nd or 3rd in the final of their Olympic trials when they're capable of winning; if they think they can win, they run to win. It's not like heats where they often deliberately run 2nd or 3rd or 4th to save energy.
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Re: Rudisha loses...Eaton AOY??

Postby Conor Dary » Sun Sep 02, 2012 9:19 am

If someone was 3rd in the 10,000 or marathon Oly Trials, it hardly comes across as a loss, but getting the job done. So why should it be any different in the 100?

Now, mind you, there are performers who really do want to win the Trials. The 1988 long jump with Lewis and Myricks going head to head, my favorite memory.
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Re: Rudisha loses...Eaton AOY??

Postby Marlow » Sun Sep 02, 2012 9:41 am

bushop wrote:For the sake if discussion. Would it hurt Bolt's AOY resumé if he ran, and lost, a 400m running 44-high.

No. That is not relevant to his primary events record. And to reiterate an oft-repeated statement by T&FN, doing multiple events does not automatically make you a stronger candidate for AOY, but doing them all superbly does.

Tuariki wrote:Given comments on wAOY thread does it hurt Eaton that he was 3rd in LJ at Walnut?

See above.

hc10003 wrote:This raises an interesting issue, specific to national trials: if the goal of trials is simply to qualify for OG, aren't they tantamount to heats?

No. Any nation with a competitive Oly Trials, that meet is de facto the biggest domestic (restricted to nationals only) meet of the year for all athletes.
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Re: Rudisha loses...Eaton AOY??

Postby Dave » Sun Sep 02, 2012 9:54 am

Conor Dary wrote:
Tuariki wrote:
Given comments on wAOY thread does it hurt Eaton that he was 3rd in LJ at Walnut?


Was he now? That is enough for me. DR is the Man!


I am not sure if you're being facetious or not.

One way or the other, a very deserving athlete is going to come in second here.
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Re: Rudisha loses...Eaton AOY??

Postby unclezadok » Sun Sep 02, 2012 10:26 am

Even though I am a decathlon fan I think I'd vote for Rudisha.
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Re: Rudisha loses...Eaton AOY??

Postby aaronk » Sun Sep 02, 2012 10:38 am

With his 12.97 in Berlin today, Aries Merritt tied the all-time record for most sub-13's in one year.
If he breaks the record in Rieti or Brussels, or anywhere, should he be considered for AOY??
Or does he need to break the WR also??
And would even THAT do it??
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Re: Rudisha loses...Eaton AOY??

Postby Marlow » Sun Sep 02, 2012 10:51 am

aaronk wrote:Aries Merritt
does he need to break the WR also??
would even THAT do it??

A 12.85 would definitely sway me!
I think people are under-esteeming him because Liu, Robles and Oliver didn't mount the multi-sub-13 campaigns as many thought they would. This, however, was a stellar sticks year

12.92 Merritt
12.93 Merritt
12.93 Merritt
12.93 Merritt
12.94 Merritt
12.95 Merritt
12.97 Liu
12.98 Richardson
12.98 Richardson
12.98 Richardson
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Re: Rudisha loses...Eaton AOY??

Postby Tuariki » Sun Sep 02, 2012 11:19 am

IMO as it stands today it is Rudisha, then Eaton as:
1. I rate Rudisha's WR performance higher than Eaton's
2. Rudisha's number of wins with quality performances
3. It is not that difficult to go undefeated if you only compete twice

The only athlete that could upset that scenario is Merritt. IMO if he can break the WR then he would go to the top for AOY.
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Re: Rudisha loses...Eaton AOY??

Postby MightyBurner » Sun Sep 02, 2012 11:25 am

Merritt. He's been utterly dominant all year with a fluky loss or two.
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Re: Rudisha loses...Eaton AOY??

Postby Conor Dary » Sun Sep 02, 2012 11:29 am

Dave wrote:
Conor Dary wrote:
Tuariki wrote:
Given comments on wAOY thread does it hurt Eaton that he was 3rd in LJ at Walnut?


Was he now? That is enough for me. DR is the Man!


I am not sure if you're being facetious or not.

One way or the other, a very deserving athlete is going to come in second here.


Very serious. In fact Eaton should run a DL 1500 to prove how tough he is.... :lol:

But seriously, DR is the man. That Oly 800 is one for the ages.
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Re: Rudisha loses...Eaton AOY??

Postby toyracer » Sun Sep 02, 2012 1:40 pm

Marlow wrote:No. Any nation with a competitive Oly Trials, that meet is de facto the biggest domestic (restricted to nationals only) meet of the year for all athletes.


Agreed, and its very name says it was. National Senior Championships. The representatives for the Olympic games just happened to be chosen from the results.
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Re: Rudisha loses...Eaton AOY??

Postby 26mi235 » Sun Sep 02, 2012 5:11 pm

The US Olympic Trials are often the second best meet of the year in a number of events.

Denigrating a decathlete because they only have three fabulous competitions in a year is somewhere in the naive direction. Or put it this way, he competed 27 times at the top level, once winning the OG and the other two setting World Records. The distance between his WR and the next best competitor is much bigger than anyone else. And the big one was set under pretty difficult conditions -- look what the wind and rain and cool weather does to high jumpers and 400 runners and hurdlers (e.g., Pearson's loss).
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Re: Rudisha loses...Eaton AOY??

Postby Dave » Sun Sep 02, 2012 8:56 pm

Conor Dary wrote:
Dave wrote:
Conor Dary wrote:
Tuariki wrote:
Given comments on wAOY thread does it hurt Eaton that he was 3rd in LJ at Walnut?


Was he now? That is enough for me. DR is the Man!


I am not sure if you're being facetious or not.

One way or the other, a very deserving athlete is going to come in second here.


Very serious. In fact Eaton should run a DL 1500 to prove how tough he is.... :lol:

But seriously, DR is the man. That Oly 800 is one for the ages.


Let's see Mr. Rudisha pick up a shot or a vaulting pole. Not that I get to vote, but I am probably leaning toward Rudisha also. That said, Eaton also had an amazing season.
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Re: Rudisha loses...Eaton AOY??

Postby EPelle » Sun Sep 02, 2012 10:01 pm

Dave wrote:Let's see Mr. Rudisha pick up a shot or a vaulting pole.

Again? He's done the decathlon thing once. Turned into a sprinter.
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Re: Rudisha loses...Eaton AOY??

Postby j-a-m » Mon Sep 03, 2012 2:45 am

toyracer wrote:The representatives for the Olympic games just happened to be chosen from the results.

And in years without a major championship the fields at Nationals just happen to be much weaker...
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Re: Rudisha loses...Eaton AOY??

Postby j-a-m » Mon Sep 03, 2012 2:51 am

aaronk wrote:With his 12.97 in Berlin today, Aries Merritt tied the all-time record for most sub-13's in one year.
If he breaks the record in Rieti or Brussels, or anywhere, should he be considered for AOY??
Or does he need to break the WR also??
And would even THAT do it??

He should be in the mix. In many other years his accomplishments would've been enough to win it; this year it's gonna be difficult to beat Eaton and Rudisha because of their WRs, though.
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Re: Rudisha loses...Eaton AOY??

Postby j-a-m » Mon Sep 03, 2012 2:56 am

MightyBurner wrote:Merritt. He's been utterly dominant all year with a fluky loss or two.

Gonna be tough for him to win it; maybe he can get enough second and third place votes to pull the upset, with the other first place votes split between Eaton and Rudisha. When Sam Bradford won the Heisman, Tebow got the most first place votes and only finished third.
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