Rudisha loses...Eaton AOY?? [or Merritt?!]


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Re: Rudisha loses...Eaton AOY??

Postby Half Miler » Thu Aug 30, 2012 8:15 pm

26mi235 wrote:His dominant Hept WR will possibly influence some voters.


It's my understanding that indoors only "counts" toward the AOY in events that are the same indoors and out. For example, Merritt's indoor 60H championship is great, but doesn't count toward his 100H season.

However, voters are voters (as opposed to the rankers, who attempt to agree collectively on merit), and thus, can be swayed by anything they want.

-edit-
looks like gh beat me to the post punch by a second or two.
Last edited by Half Miler on Thu Aug 30, 2012 8:18 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Rudisha loses...Eaton AOY??

Postby gh » Thu Aug 30, 2012 8:17 pm

they can be swayed, but if somethign isn't listed on the athlete's seasonal record as presented with the ballot, it has far less impact. And there are instructions to ignore such.
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Re: Rudisha loses...Eaton AOY??

Postby bobguild76 » Thu Aug 30, 2012 10:43 pm

Half Miler wrote:This should be a really good AOY race. A case can be made for each of the following athletes:

Rudisha
Eaton
Bolt
Merritt
Harting
Farah

Expect plenty of bitching and moaning after (the athlete you DID NOT choose) is selected!


Ain't that the truth! With the season almost over, the question is, What has each of these done since London to polish his cv?

6. Harting - A win in Birmingham over his major competition.
5. Merritt - Continues his amazing sub-13 season, but the False Start in Lausanne is a minus. A WR would hasve moved him up, but another 12.9x (amazing!) keeps him the same. Several losses to his record, but the top hurdlers meet each other more than in most other events.
4. Farah - Amazing season. The 2-mile victory doesn't mean anything for ranking purposes. Honors won - 2G. Win/loss - undefeated. Sequence of marks not the best, with 11th in the 5k & 32nd in the 10k. Of course, in the distances, this means less than the sprints, where tactics don't weigh heavily in the races.
3. Bolt - He continues to amaze. I wish he would go head to head vs Blake more. More's the pity. His continued high end sequence of marks, along with his being undefeated since London, edges him ahead of Farah in my opinion. It has been noted that Bolt/Blake head to head takes a toll on each, but ain't that the truth in any event?!

For the top two, I could go either way. Yes, Rudisha has a loss in Zurich, which puts a blemish on his cv. Both he and Eaton had a performance for the ages. I would put Rudisha slightly ahead, as his came in the Olympic final. Of course, I then consider that Eaton set his WR in the rain, against the defending OG & WC champions.

Rudisha broke his own WR, but Kipketer's previous WR was set in 1997, four years before Sebrle's Dec WR.

Some say that Multi athletes don't quite measure up to the single eventers (or doublers), because no single event makes them the best in the world ... I say the whole point of the Multi's is to see who is best in the world at all the disciplines. And that takes an amazing skill set for anyone.

All in all, I would still go with;

2. Eaton, and
1. Rudisha.

And to think ... the women are as hard to separate!
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Re: Rudisha loses...Eaton AOY??

Postby 26mi235 » Fri Aug 31, 2012 1:18 am

gh wrote:
26mi235 wrote:His dominant Hept WR will possibly influence some voters.


Hopefully it won't. It won't be on his cv for the year. The only time we include indoor marks is if they're the same as outdoors. So while the field events count, the 60 and 60 hurdles don't, banked track 400s, don't, etc,. etc. And that includes the men's kept, which rewards a whole different skill set than the decathlon.


Yes, the skill set of the Hept has different characteristics than the decathlon (more speed, less strength/field event in that domain). However, that is more of an issue in an event ranking (i.e., the Hept should not influence except for possibly a 'pure' tie [not 'close' where it reverses the order) than it is for AOY, where that athletes overall performance is under review. While it is true that for a multi athlete, losing a contest in an individual event is not a 'loss' in the same way a typical athlete is rated in one of that athlete's primary events (e.g., Farah in the 5000 or 10,000, but not the 1500), setting a substantial WR in the indoor variant is a notable occurrence unless that record is soft. Looking at the second best athlete in the Hept indicates that the performance is noteworthy even within the reduced competitiveness of the indoor season and event set.
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Re: Rudisha loses...Eaton AOY??

Postby gibson » Fri Aug 31, 2012 1:30 am

Ashton Eaton gets my vote for athlete of the year.
that world record set in the pouring rain is the impossible come true.
not to mention the hep record and OG gold.

Rudisha's gets performance of the year however -
it was right up (or exceeded) with the Bolt of Beijing.
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Re: Rudisha loses...Eaton AOY??

Postby j-a-m » Fri Aug 31, 2012 2:51 am

Is it gonna influence the voters that both Ennis and Eaton are in the mix? It shouldn't influence them at all, but in reality, are some gonna be reluctant to award AOY to two multi eventers in the same year?
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Re: Rudisha loses...Eaton AOY??

Postby gh » Fri Aug 31, 2012 5:37 am

If we thought there was a panelist vapid enough to embrace that kind of thinking they'd get the boot right quick.
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Re: Rudisha loses...Eaton AOY??

Postby Dave » Fri Aug 31, 2012 8:38 am

The only knock I see against Eaton is the number of competitions. So far as I can tell, he only competed at the OT and GO in his primary event and Istanbul indoors. Not sure if the panel considers indoor results, but 3 wins out of 3 competitions with 2 world records is a pretty phenomenal season.

Rudish has competed far more frequently with half of the top ten outdoor performances.

I may be talking myself into favoring Eaton over Rudisha.

Bolt and Farah are neck and neck for 3rd imho but both put butts in seats and that may prevail in the voting.
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Re: Rudisha loses...Eaton AOY??

Postby toyracer » Fri Aug 31, 2012 8:54 am

FWIW, my vote would be for Eaton.
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Re: Rudisha loses...Eaton AOY??

Postby mump boy » Fri Aug 31, 2012 9:13 am

It is much easier to have a undefeated season if you only compete twice !!

I know it is the nature of multi events that you can't compete multiple times (although Daley apparently disagreed) but i can't compare it to someone who has competed multiple times and had 1 loss. I think it is equally difficult for a MAR to win AOY with so few competitions or a walker who just get ignored anyway

Also the idea that his WR is worth more because it has stood for longer is nonsense considering Rudisha beat his own mark ? if he hadn't bothered to run WR records before he would have broken one that had stood for 15 years

Off the top of my head without looking up all the performances for the year

Rudisha is still my AOY
Can't decide between Eaton and Harting for 2nd
Bolt
Merrit

i suppose Mo comes next but outside of london i think he's had a very thin season, no fast times, very few competitive races. He should be going for super fast times not avoiding big DL races for set up and pointless 5k and 2 mile races at home, it marks him well down in my book.
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Re: Rudisha loses...Eaton AOY??

Postby gh » Fri Aug 31, 2012 9:21 am

Dave wrote:....
Bolt and Farah are neck and neck for 3rd imho but both put butts in seats and that may prevail in the voting.


If butts in seats had anything to do with it, Pistorious would make the top 10. What an utterly quaint idea!
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Re: Rudisha loses...Eaton AOY??

Postby kuha » Fri Aug 31, 2012 9:29 am

gh wrote:
Dave wrote:....
Bolt and Farah are neck and neck for 3rd imho but both put butts in seats and that may prevail in the voting.


If butts in seats had anything to do with it, Pistorious would make the top 10. What an utterly quaint idea!


I fully presume that pretty much ANY "popular" poll re: the Olympics would put him in the top 5 or leading leading personalities/stories of 2012.
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Re: Rudisha loses...Eaton AOY??

Postby Conor Dary » Fri Aug 31, 2012 9:34 am

gh wrote:
Dave wrote:....
Bolt and Farah are neck and neck for 3rd imho but both put butts in seats and that may prevail in the voting.


If butts in seats had anything to do with it, Pistorious would make the top 10. What an utterly quaint idea!


By that criteria Pre probably would have been AOY a few times.... :lol:
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Re: Rudisha loses...Eaton AOY??

Postby aaronk » Fri Aug 31, 2012 10:34 am

Maybe T&FN should do what baseball does for their All-Star game........give it up to FAN voting!!

Just KIDDING, folks!!
HA HA HA!!! :lol:
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Re: Rudisha loses...Eaton AOY??

Postby jazzcyclist » Fri Aug 31, 2012 11:08 am

mump boy wrote:It is much easier to have a undefeated season if you only compete twice !!

I know it is the nature of multi events that you can't compete multiple times (although Daley apparently disagreed) but i can't compare it to someone who has competed multiple times and had 1 loss. I think it is equally difficult for a MAR to win AOY with so few competitions or a walker who just get ignored anyway.

I agree with this completely. For this reason, I would look for multi-eventers to flesh out their seasons with some open event competition in their best event and for marathoners to flesh out their seasons with shorter races on the road and/or track. Just think think if Ennis had followed up her gold medal in the heptathlon with a medal of any color in the 100 hurdles, or if Eaton had won a couple of long jump competitions on the DL circuit.
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Re: Rudisha loses...Eaton AOY??

Postby mump boy » Fri Aug 31, 2012 11:14 am

jazzcyclist wrote:
mump boy wrote:It is much easier to have a undefeated season if you only compete twice !!

I know it is the nature of multi events that you can't compete multiple times (although Daley apparently disagreed) but i can't compare it to someone who has competed multiple times and had 1 loss. I think it is equally difficult for a MAR to win AOY with so few competitions or a walker who just get ignored anyway.

I agree with this completely. For this reason, I would look for multi-eventers to flesh out their seasons with some open event competition in their best event and for marathoners to flesh out their seasons with shorter races on the road and/or track. Just think think if Ennis had followed up her gold medal in the heptathlon with a medal of any color in the 100 hurdles, or if Eaton had won a couple of long jump competitions on the DL circuit.


Exactly, what are they doing the rest of the time competing once in July and once in Aug can't compete with those who are competing week in week out from May to Sep
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Re: Rudisha loses...Eaton AOY??

Postby tgs3 » Fri Aug 31, 2012 11:18 am

mump boy wrote:I know it is the nature of multi events that you can't compete multiple times (although Daley apparently disagreed) but i can't compare it to someone who has competed multiple times and had 1 loss.


Over the last 5 years, Eaton has competed 16 decathlons and 8 heptathlons. During the same span in Thompson's career (78-82), he competed in 10 decathlons and no heptathlons (as far as I can tell).
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Re: Rudisha loses...Eaton AOY??

Postby mump boy » Fri Aug 31, 2012 11:32 am

tgs3 wrote:
mump boy wrote:I know it is the nature of multi events that you can't compete multiple times (although Daley apparently disagreed) but i can't compare it to someone who has competed multiple times and had 1 loss.


Over the last 5 years, Eaton has competed 16 decathlons and 8 heptathlons. During the same span in Thompson's career (78-82), he competed in 10 decathlons and no heptathlons (as far as I can tell).


That wasn't my point

Daley apparently said that doing a Dec didn't take too much out of him and that he could have done 1 a month
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Re: Rudisha loses...Eaton AOY??

Postby tgs3 » Fri Aug 31, 2012 11:48 am

mump boy wrote:That wasn't my point

Daley apparently said that doing a Dec didn't take too much out of him and that he could have done 1 a month


Ah. Sorry. Though I find it humorous that he didn't do all that many despite feeling this way.

From a physical standpoint, I would think one would recover from a decathlon fairly quickly. Doing a lot of them would probably take a mental toll, however. There's also the issue of how a bunch of competitions would affect your training and peaking for so many different events.
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Re: Rudisha loses...Eaton AOY??

Postby br » Fri Aug 31, 2012 12:58 pm

If Rudisha were to prevail, he would be only the second athlete to win 3 consecutive AOY awards, the first being Carl Lewis ('82, '83, '84). Remember, Rudisha lost his final race last year, too.
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Re: Rudisha loses...Eaton AOY??

Postby gh » Fri Aug 31, 2012 1:17 pm

ahh, but last year nobody set a World Record in mainstream non-road event.
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Re: Rudisha loses...Eaton AOY??

Postby Dave » Fri Aug 31, 2012 2:08 pm

gh wrote:ahh, but last year nobody set a World Record in mainstream non-road event.


And that tells me that Mr. Rudisha is the runaway favorite to be AOY.
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Re: Rudisha loses...Eaton AOY??

Postby tandfman » Fri Aug 31, 2012 2:22 pm

Dave wrote:
gh wrote:ahh, but last year nobody set a World Record in mainstream non-road event.

And that tells me that Mr. Rudisha is the runaway favorite to be AOY.

I think gh was referring to the fact that this year, Eaton set a WR in a mainstream non-road event.
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Re: Rudisha loses...Eaton AOY??

Postby Conor Dary » Fri Aug 31, 2012 3:18 pm

tandfman wrote:
Dave wrote:
gh wrote:ahh, but last year nobody set a World Record in mainstream non-road event.

And that tells me that Mr. Rudisha is the runaway favorite to be AOY.

I think gh was referring to the fact that this year, Eaton set a WR in a mainstream non-road event.


Well so did Rudisha.
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Re: Rudisha loses...Eaton AOY??

Postby tandfman » Fri Aug 31, 2012 3:26 pm

Yes, but Eaton is undefeated.
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Re: Rudisha loses...Eaton AOY??

Postby Conor Dary » Fri Aug 31, 2012 4:49 pm

tandfman wrote:Yes, but Eaton is undefeated.


Yes, that is true and DR is not... :cry:
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Re: Rudisha loses...Eaton AOY??

Postby ATK » Fri Aug 31, 2012 6:17 pm

tandfman wrote:Yes, but Eaton is undefeated.

Im going with J-A-M and is recent statements.

Should Rudisha be penalized for racing more? Would you rank Rudisha equally if he only ran twice, the Kenyan trials and The Olympics?
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Re: Rudisha loses...Eaton AOY??

Postby dbirds » Fri Aug 31, 2012 6:24 pm

[quote][Hopefully it won't. It won't be on his cv for the year. The only time we include indoor marks is if they're the same as outdoors. So while the field events count, the 60 and 60 hurdles don't, banked track 400s, don't, etc,. etc. And that includes the men's kept, which rewards a whole different skill set than the decathlon./quote]

Since multi eventers compete so in frequent then I would think indoor heptathlons should be considered
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Re: Rudisha loses...Eaton AOY??

Postby lionelp1 » Sat Sep 01, 2012 12:10 am

This AOY really is crazy; how can you fairly compare probably the greatest individual track and field performance at the OG in a WR and undefeated except a blip in his last race of the year, with Eaton's outstanding WR in the States and his victory in the OG.
Answer is, you cannot compare objectively, merely subjective as the AOY thing is nearly every year.

The perfect example of the aphorism " comparisons are odious " and impossible.
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Re: Rudisha loses...Eaton AOY??

Postby EPelle » Sat Sep 01, 2012 1:12 am

What impact have Rudisha and Eaton had on their events? To me, the AOY is beyond winning and setting good marks. The athlete of the year is s/he who, in addition to setting good marks and accumulates a great winning percentage over the course of the season, has the greatest impact on their event. And, ultimately, on the sport. Rudisha's not only set a world record, won the Olympics and had only one loss on the season, he's elevated the playing field for others competing against him. Eight personal records and four national records from the world's elite have been set in his last two races as have two world junior records. That's impact. Has Eaton had the same impact? Bolt has more losses than Rudisha, and had them on home soil in national competition.
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Re: Rudisha loses...Eaton AOY??

Postby 18.99s » Sat Sep 01, 2012 3:08 am

mump boy wrote:Also the idea that his WR is worth more because it has stood for longer is nonsense considering Rudisha beat his own mark ? if he hadn't bothered to run WR records before he would have broken one that had stood for 15 years


When looking at how long the WR stood, the athlete's own previous WRs shouldn't count. In the battle of WR longevity with the current WR holder vs. everybody else in history, I go back to the record held by the previous athlete, and performances by other athletes that are better than the previous WR holder but not good enough to be a new record.

So IMO Rudisha is still pummeling Kipketer's 15-year-old record, not breaking a "mere" 2-year-old record, because Rudisha alone has performed better than the 1997 record. And if Eaton broke the WR again in London, that would be a further assault on Sebrle's 2001 record, not breaking a "mere" 6-week-old record, because Eaton himself is the only one to have ever bettered the 2001 record.
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Re: Rudisha loses...Eaton AOY??

Postby Tuariki » Sat Sep 01, 2012 3:31 am

jazzcyclist wrote:If Eaton did only the long jump and Ennis did only the 100 hurdles, they would have both been medal contenders.

This is true. But it wouldn't make them AOY contenders
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Re: Rudisha loses...Eaton AOY??

Postby mal » Sat Sep 01, 2012 4:21 am

AOY - losing points in a meaningless race post Olympics is like discounting fat Elvis in his latter stages of life.

I'd still pay to watch him, and wouldn't be concerned with a few breathy notes too many.

I'd rather Rudisha ran on than shut it down. Clearly he was ready to hang it up, like last year when he was beaten post the big event, in a slow time.

If AOY is meaningful, who cares about his loss at 1:42 +
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Re: Rudisha loses...Eaton AOY??

Postby dbirds » Sat Sep 01, 2012 6:08 am

Eaton set world decathlon records in the 100m and long jump and set WRs in the heptathlon and decathlons! He beat a 2-time defending world
Champion Trey hardee twice. Many former
Decathletes and historians call Eaton the best decathlete ever. He has taken the event to
The next level. There's really nothing more he could
Have feasibly done in 2012!
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Re: Rudisha loses...Eaton AOY??

Postby mump boy » Sat Sep 01, 2012 6:27 am

dbirds wrote:Eaton set world decathlon records in the 100m and long jump and set WRs in the heptathlon and decathlons! He beat a 2-time defending world
Champion Trey hardee twice. Many former
Decathletes and historians call Eaton the best decathlete ever. He has taken the event to
The next level. There's really nothing more he could
Have feasibly done in 2012!


He may prove to be so in the future but at the moment NOBODY calls Eaton the best decathlete ever !! He's not even the best decathlete of this century at the moment

Beating a 2 time defending champion has no bearing nor does his Heptathlon achievements.
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Re: Rudisha loses...Eaton AOY??

Postby gh » Sat Sep 01, 2012 7:23 am

mump boy wrote:....

He may prove to be so in the future but at the moment NOBODY calls Eaton the best decathlete ever !! He's not even the best decathlete of this century at the moment
....


At the risk of parsing words too finely, there is no question that the Eaton is the best decathlete ever. The World Record (with much room to grow) adequately proves that.

However, is he the greatest decathlete ever? To paraphrase your correct statement, he's not even the greatest of this century. Yet.
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Re: Rudisha loses...Eaton AOY??

Postby Marlow » Sat Sep 01, 2012 10:17 am

gh wrote:However, is he the greatest decathlete ever? To paraphrase your correct statement, he's not even the greatest of this century. Yet.

More semantics. Is he the Dec GOAT? Absolutely not. He needs a fuller CV. Is he the most talented/highest performing (irrespective of era) decathlete ever? I've got him in a tie with Thorpe right now, and if he adds a point to the WR or wins the OG Dec again, he's got my vote.
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Re: Rudisha loses...Eaton AOY??

Postby jazzcyclist » Sat Sep 01, 2012 10:23 am

What's a "CV"?
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Re: Rudisha loses...Eaton AOY??

Postby Conor Dary » Sat Sep 01, 2012 10:48 am

jazzcyclist wrote:What's a "CV"?


curriculum vitæ. The courses of my life. Sort of a resume.
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Re: Rudisha loses...Eaton AOY??

Postby 26mi235 » Sat Sep 01, 2012 1:39 pm

Conor Dary wrote:
tandfman wrote:
Dave wrote:
gh wrote:ahh, but last year nobody set a World Record in mainstream non-road event.

And that tells me that Mr. Rudisha is the runaway favorite to be AOY.

I think gh was referring to the fact that this year, Eaton set a WR in a mainstream non-road event.


Well so did Rudisha.


In gh's comment, last year no one (else) set a WR => thus winning despite being beaten at the end was more easily done. This year he faces a harder set of competition. Bolt was definitely better, Eaton broke an important WR under difficult conditions and shattered his own indoors, so when he did compete in a similar event (as similar as possible) he set the standard there too. Only doing two competitions is a major disadvantage in the 10, 200, etc., even the 1500; the 5000 matters a bit less, especially with doubling, but hurts you more in the 5000 ranking than overall ranking.

Eaton was competing at a high level in non-Multi events, and probably beating all the multi guys almost all the time, although you would not expect him to do so in the SP/DT/JT.

Thus, the multis create a conundrum for the AOY voting. Comparing Ennis and Eaton, a new WR vs three hundred points below puts him further up the quality totem pole.
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