What's up with JW?


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What's up with JW?

Postby proofs in the pudd'in » Mon Aug 20, 2012 5:30 pm

Did he just end his season after Nationals? I was hoping to see him run after the OG - he would have been fresh and seemingly ready to go get some wins/cash at the remaining DL's. I wonder if he is mentally there to compete after a disappointing trials? Anyone know what's up?
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Re: What's up with JW?

Postby bman » Mon Aug 20, 2012 5:48 pm

Hurt his hammy out for the season. I saw him at the opening ceremony but the news came out prior to the relay that he had injured his hamstring.
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Re: What's up with JW?

Postby proofs in the pudd'in » Mon Aug 20, 2012 7:37 pm

bman wrote:Hurt his hammy out for the season. I saw him at the opening ceremony but the news came out prior to the relay that he had injured his hamstring.


How did he do that? He seemed fine after nationals. I did not realize he went to London. Man he keeps getting these injuries :(
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Re: What's up with JW?

Postby ATK » Mon Aug 20, 2012 7:39 pm

He ran in all the Major DL's, even after a disappointing trials. Even if he was healthy, I would have been surprised to see him win any race. And I actually will be surprised if he wins any major meet next year.
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Re: What's up with JW?

Postby sprintzfan » Mon Aug 20, 2012 7:54 pm

Why ATK? What is really going on with him. Are you saying that you think he is done as a competitive runner internationally?
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Re: What's up with JW?

Postby ATK » Mon Aug 20, 2012 8:33 pm

sprintzfan wrote:Why ATK? What is really going on with him. Are you saying that you think he is done as a competitive runner internationally?

No, I would just be surprised to see him win in a major meet on the circuit. This year he said himself that he was healthy and felt great the whole year, and was confident and not worried. But he was a 45.2 runner on average.

I still think he can run 44's, but I think he has lost that competitive edge. The younger 400 runners of the world are just getting faster while he is leveling out/slowing down. Both the US trials final and the London final (and just these past 2 years of the 400 in general) showed that the 400 really is an event for the younger athletes, and all these younger guys are very competitive.

To me Wariner already stamped himself as one of the greatest 400 runners ever. Greatness doesn't last forever though.
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Re: What's up with JW?

Postby sprintzfan » Mon Aug 20, 2012 8:39 pm

Thanks for the explanation ATK. I understand you.

Well what you say makes lots of sense, but I hope you're wrong. lol

As a fan I really like JW. Always have. For whatever reason. I'd be super happy if someway, somehow he could put it together for just one more Olympics. Get one last medal in 2016.
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Re: What's up with JW?

Postby proofs in the pudd'in » Mon Aug 20, 2012 8:47 pm

The only thing I wish JW did differently is - I wish he would have tried more for the record - like Rudisha has been running the 800. Rudisha seems to put himself out there and go for it when he does not have to. Jw seemed always to have the attitude -'well, if it comes it comes' -but as we know the opportunities are only the present not what furture we think we have. I think Jw could have done it 2006 or 2007 if he focused on it.
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Re: What's up with JW?

Postby vip » Mon Aug 20, 2012 8:59 pm

Spintzfan, there is nothing, and I mean nothing, in his current makeup that would lead anyone to believe JW could medal in Rio. He didn't even make the U.S. team for the 400 this year; what makes you think he'll be better (or healthier) than these young American guys when he's four years older? Not to mention the young guys internationally?

He had his moment. And his moment was very good. But Father Time is undefeated. And it's JW's turn to take it on the chin in that fight. Nobody lasts forever. Hopefully he took care of his money and has a post-career path lined up.
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Re: What's up with JW?

Postby sprintzfan » Mon Aug 20, 2012 9:12 pm

I concede vip that most of you guys understand how this works better than myself. Some of you having been competitive runners yourselves. (I never was.) But while I can't think of a specific example right now, in my years of watching this sport it does seem like I have seen athletes JW's age, take a dip for a 4 year period, fight injury and miss the Olympics, only the come back one last time and have a final Olympic hurrah if you will.

Let me think on it some and see if when more rested (and earlier in the day lol) I can think of a couple of examples of what I'm talking about. What I think I remember in this regard.

But I hear what you guys are saying. I'm probably being more an irrational fan on this one, than a rational observer of the sport. And rational about "my boy" JW.
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Re: What's up with JW?

Postby Half Miler » Mon Aug 20, 2012 9:24 pm

Although I generally agree with the majority here, I would never, ever count out a former champion. Felix Sanchez showed me what that's all about a couple weeks ago. If JW feels there's still something to prove, who knows?
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Re: What's up with JW?

Postby ATK » Tue Aug 21, 2012 2:29 am

Half Miler wrote:Although I generally agree with the majority here, I would never, ever count out a former champion. Felix Sanchez showed me what that's all about a couple weeks ago. If JW feels there's still something to prove, who knows?

The open 400 is a completely different event
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Re: What's up with JW?

Postby sprintzfan » Tue Aug 21, 2012 5:07 am

Yep. That's the only reason I signed in this morning. To offer Sanchez as an example of what I'm hoping for. Half Miler kinda "stole" my overnight thunder. lol

What makes the hurdles such a different animal ATK, when talking about an athlete making a resurgent come back like this? Is it because the hurdles is more technique than the open 400? Raw speed more a factor in the open 400?

Could you explain this a little? Thanks.
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Re: What's up with JW?

Postby tracknut2012 » Tue Aug 21, 2012 8:50 am

Wariner has not done well since he left Clyde Hart many years ago and went back. Not sure what his issue is. Things have been so much different since.
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Re: What's up with JW?

Postby preston » Tue Aug 21, 2012 12:39 pm

ATK wrote:
Half Miler wrote:Although I generally agree with the majority here, I would never, ever count out a former champion. Felix Sanchez showed me what that's all about a couple weeks ago. If JW feels there's still something to prove, who knows?

The open 400 is a completely different event

To people who don't know any better that MIGHT sound like it makes sense and it must mean that my DeeDee Trotter sightings were part of a dream sequence where not only did she run the 400m and not only did she run her best time in a championship (twice) and not only did she run under 50 for the first time since 2007 but that she also won a bronze...4 months before her 30th birthday...

Wake me, please.
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Re: What's up with JW?

Postby sprintzfan » Tue Aug 21, 2012 1:16 pm

But in all fairness isn't Dee Dee's situation a little different? She's never come close to JW's or Sanchez's success. Can't you look at Dee Dee as someone who just peaked this year? Peaked for the first time in her career.

Where in Sanchez and JW, you had guys who clearly peaked at an earlier time, and by all appearances were both on the downcline in their athletic careers.

Isn't the Dee Dee example different for a variety of reasons? Including the reason that her "highest high" was never even close to what JW's highest high was. Aren't athletes who finally accomplish something great at their last try at the Olympics, more routine than once great athletes going into decline, but making a come back?

While going into this discussion I figured that others had done what I'm hoping JW could do in the future. I still think athletes doing what Dee Dee did this year happens more often than what Sanchez did. Medal as an individual, come up empty one Olympics, then medal again.

p.s. I think of boxing as an analogy. Isn't a guy who finally wins the championship at an advanced age, more common than a guy who wins the championship once, perhaps at a very young age, then regains it? Rightly or wrongly, my sense is that the same is true in track.
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Re: What's up with JW?

Postby tgs3 » Tue Aug 21, 2012 1:21 pm

preston wrote:
ATK wrote:
Half Miler wrote:Although I generally agree with the majority here, I would never, ever count out a former champion. Felix Sanchez showed me what that's all about a couple weeks ago. If JW feels there's still something to prove, who knows?

The open 400 is a completely different event

To people who don't know any better that MIGHT sound like it makes sense and it must mean that my DeeDee Trotter sightings were part of a dream sequence where not only did she run the 400m and not only did she run her best time in a championship (twice) and not only did she run under 50 for the first time since 2007 but that she also won a bronze...4 months before her 30th birthday...

Wake me, please.


Since Chris Brown is more than 4 years older than Wariner and just came in 4th in the the very event Wariner runs, I would think he would be the best example of what is possible.

Angelo Taylor, Michael Johnson and Butch Reynolds are other examples of guys that did well in their early 30's, however, the majority of quarter milers are done by 30, and Wariner will be 32 in 2016.
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Re: What's up with JW?

Postby sprintzfan » Tue Aug 21, 2012 1:30 pm

I though of Butch Reynolds and looked him up today. But because of his doping ban and the fact that in terms of Olympic success he never really "came back", I discounted him as an example of what I'm hoping JW can do.

I think Reynolds did well at a World Championships though late in his career.
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Re: What's up with JW?

Postby ATK » Tue Aug 21, 2012 7:31 pm

I meant it as the open 400 and the 400h are complete different events in the past few years, based off who has been dominating the event.

Look at the ages to the last two global finals

London
400H 28-34-28-26-33-20-25-26
400m 19-18-23-33-24-24-23-19

Daegu
400H 25-27-26-33-22-28-32-32
400m 18-25-23-26-24-21-23-20

The 400 hurdles are currently an "older mans" event right now, while the open is dominated by the youth. When you have athletes like Chris Brown at 33 and Jehue Gordon at 20 they are outcasts in their event right now.
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Re: What's up with JW?

Postby gh » Tue Aug 21, 2012 9:00 pm

If you wanna know what's up, I'm guessing you need look no farther than the fact that last year was his 8th in the World Rankings, and he has been in the top 1-2 no fewer than 7 times. You can count all those in history on less than one hand. There are only so many races in anybody's legs, even the great ones.
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Re: What's up with JW?

Postby Master Po » Wed Aug 22, 2012 1:37 am

gh wrote:If you wanna know what's up, I'm guessing you need look no farther than the fact that last year was his 8th in the World Rankings, and he has been in the top 1-2 no fewer than 7 times. You can count all those in history on less than one hand. There are only so many races in anybody's legs, even the great ones.


Indeed. Who has 8 or more world rankings in this event?
Michael Johnson 11 (10 @ #1)
Alberto Juantorena 8 (4 @ #1)
Butch Reynolds 9 (2 @ #1, 4 @ #2)
Wariner 8 (5 @ #1, 2 @ #2)
That's a pretty nice group for JW to be part of.
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Re: What's up with JW?

Postby sprintzfan » Wed Aug 22, 2012 1:51 am

Yep. Very impressive.
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Re: What's up with JW?

Postby mal » Wed Aug 22, 2012 7:05 am

I think world rankings, and JW's performance are two different conversations.

Rankings are due to other people's performance. His performance should be rated on how fast he runs.

So, why has he suddenly got so much slower and more inconsistent, despite still being a relatively young athlete who should have many strong performances in his future?
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Re: What's up with JW?

Postby ATK » Wed Aug 22, 2012 9:16 am

mal wrote:I think world rankings, and JW's performance are two different conversations.

Rankings are due to other people's performance. His performance should be rated on how fast he runs.

So, why has he suddenly got so much slower and more inconsistent, despite still being a relatively young athlete who should have many strong performances in his future?

For his event, he is technically relitively old.
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Re: What's up with JW?

Postby Half Miler » Wed Aug 22, 2012 9:28 am

ATK wrote:Chris Brown at 33 and Jehue Gordon at 20 they are outcasts in their event right now.


:wink:
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Re: What's up with JW?

Postby proofs in the pudd'in » Wed Aug 22, 2012 12:06 pm

gh wrote:If you wanna know what's up, I'm guessing you need look no farther than the fact that last year was his 8th in the World Rankings, and he has been in the top 1-2 no fewer than 7 times. You can count all those in history on less than one hand. There are only so many races in anybody's legs, even the great ones.


I meant with the rest of his season - which should have been clear from my OP.
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Re: What's up with JW?

Postby mal » Wed Aug 22, 2012 5:10 pm

ATK wrote:
mal wrote:I think world rankings, and JW's performance are two different conversations.

Rankings are due to other people's performance. His performance should be rated on how fast he runs.

So, why has he suddenly got so much slower and more inconsistent, despite still being a relatively young athlete who should have many strong performances in his future?

For his event, he is technically relitively old.


I'm old. My Son is older than he is.

He is not ancient. He is not old. I think his real issue is that he has had enough, and is tied to the sport by golden handcuffs.
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Re: What's up with JW?

Postby 26mi235 » Wed Aug 22, 2012 6:08 pm

Old as in eight years at top rankings. How many other athletes fit this bill -- VCB, Taylor, ...

gh said that there are almost no other 400 guys who were at the top as long as he has been. And you know those Kenyexas birth birth certificates, he was probably 25 when he it the big leagues and is well into his 30s now...
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Re: What's up with JW?

Postby Blues » Wed Aug 22, 2012 6:17 pm

He's in his first year of marriage and his first year of actual fatherhood (to his wife's child), and his wife is expecting his child in two months... Maybe there's a slight possibility that his priorities have been rearranged a little, or that he's still adjusting to his new responsibilities....
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Re: What's up with JW?

Postby ATK » Wed Aug 22, 2012 6:29 pm

mal wrote:
ATK wrote:
mal wrote:I think world rankings, and JW's performance are two different conversations.

Rankings are due to other people's performance. His performance should be rated on how fast he runs.

So, why has he suddenly got so much slower and more inconsistent, despite still being a relatively young athlete who should have many strong performances in his future?

For his event, he is technically relitively old.


I'm old. My Son is older than he is.

He is not ancient. He is not old. I think his real issue is that he has had enough, and is tied to the sport by golden handcuffs.

Like I said, for his event, he is old.

In life if your 28, your life is just starting. In the sprints if your 28, you should start thinking what your next career will be.
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Re: What's up with JW?

Postby mal » Thu Aug 23, 2012 5:25 am

Totally agree that he's done as an athlete. Right now he's just collecting the check. Not intentionally I'm sure. He just doens't know yet that he's tlost the ticker that makes him different to many others with his talent.

I don't think physically he has lost enough to be considered old. But mentally, I don't think he's got it anymore.

Like Steve Hooker.
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Re: What's up with JW?

Postby tm71 » Thu Aug 23, 2012 9:19 am

true there aren't many elite 400 meter runners, currently, his age or older. comparing his situation to MJ, reynolds and juantorena running fast late in their careers is not a valid comparison. Juantorena competed before the era of the grand prix/diamond league even before the world championships. MJ is an exception, how he won in 2000 at age 33 and retired the next year. Reynolds won two of his world championships medals at 29 and 31 (older than JW) and made the team in 96 (dnf in his heat due to injury), but he was out of the sport for two years. I agree that at the highest level most athletes (even the great ones) have a finite number of years at the top. There are only a number of fast races one has in their legs. JW has been running sub 45 since he was 20 yrs old (eight years now) and it is very likely he does not have much left in his legs. As far as the next olympics it is totally unrealistic to consider that he will qualify for those cosider the natural decline. With the exception of MJ the most recent olympic champions have been 19 (Steve Lewis), 22 (Quincy Watts), 20 (JW), 22 (LM) and 19 (Kirani James). I think the us will have a total new crew in the 400 by Rio and i doubt that either JW or LM will be on the team.
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Re: What's up with JW?

Postby sprintzfan » Thu Aug 23, 2012 9:38 am

This thread is depressing! :wink:

No but thanks to all you folks, for helping me be more realistic about what I am hoping/expecting of JW.

You know Ive heard in various other sports, the adage about an athlete only having so many good seasons or games or fights in his/her body, but I think this is the first time I've heard it about running.

I think my uneducated presumption, was just that runners lose it, because they get older, and the body just can't do at say 34, what it did at 24. (And then older athletes start rupturing their Achilles and stuff.) But the "only so many fast races in your legs" is a different concept than plain old aging. And like I said, I'd heard it in other sports but not really track. So thanks to all who made this point. It does shed some light for me at least.

p.s. Since a runner only has so many fast times in his/her legs, is there any danger of a young athlete competing in TOO MANY meets, to early in his/her career? And as a corollary I guess, is it possible for some kind of natural phenom type runner, who hadn't competed much as a junior or say at all in college, start to only devote himself to the sport at a later age (say 22), and as a result of that late start run faster at an advanced age, than his peers who started running full time at a more typical young age?

Hope these questions make sense.
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Re: What's up with JW?

Postby mal » Thu Aug 23, 2012 11:13 am

I really don't think it has anything to do with miles on the legs. Unless he is really broken. Guys like Gatlin hang in there, So did Butch Reynolds. They stay cos they have a goal that needs to be met. They keep themselves going because they have unfinished business.

JW has no unfinished business. Success is a measure of how much you can put your body through. Once there is no reason for the body to go through that, its hard to really whip it up to world class level again. Its like a switch goes off. I suspect JW is in great shape. He'll probably talk about training sessions that were as good as he ever did. But racing at his old level is a step beyond that.

Once that need goes away its hard to recreate it. You bust your hump and the times don't come.
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Re: What's up with JW?

Postby lonewolf » Thu Aug 23, 2012 12:58 pm

I do not ascribe to the "only so many fast races in your legs" theory..I believe it is simply that different people peak at different ages; after which there is inexorable decline despite rigorous training and undimished desire.
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Re: What's up with JW?

Postby tandfman » Thu Aug 23, 2012 4:30 pm

FWIW, JW tweeted today that he'll get under 43 one day. He may or may not but at least in his mind, he's by no means over the hill.
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Re: What's up with JW?

Postby mal » Fri Aug 24, 2012 3:08 am

If wishes were horses, beggars would ride.
That's what my momma used to say.
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Re: What's up with JW?

Postby ATK » Fri Aug 24, 2012 7:15 pm

mal wrote:I really don't think it has anything to do with miles on the legs. Unless he is really broken. Guys like Gatlin hang in there, So did Butch Reynolds. They stay cos they have a goal that needs to be met. They keep themselves going because they have unfinished business.

I don't disagree with you, but I think you picked the wrong athletes to compare.
Gatlin had 4 years off and Butch had 2 years away.

Kim Collins and Angelo Taylor are better comparisons.
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Re: What's up with JW?

Postby mal » Fri Aug 24, 2012 9:09 pm

ATK wrote:
mal wrote:I really don't think it has anything to do with miles on the legs. Unless he is really broken. Guys like Gatlin hang in there, So did Butch Reynolds. They stay cos they have a goal that needs to be met. They keep themselves going because they have unfinished business.

I don't disagree with you, but I think you picked the wrong athletes to compare.
Gatlin had 4 years off and Butch had 2 years away.

Kim Collins and Angelo Taylor are better comparisons.


Why?

I think 'my' guys fit more with my view. The two you mentionsed are extraordinary. They have extended their "usefulness". More credit to them The exceptions.
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Re: What's up with JW?

Postby ATK » Fri Aug 24, 2012 9:37 pm

mal wrote:
ATK wrote:
mal wrote:I really don't think it has anything to do with miles on the legs. Unless he is really broken. Guys like Gatlin hang in there, So did Butch Reynolds. They stay cos they have a goal that needs to be met. They keep themselves going because they have unfinished business.

I don't disagree with you, but I think you picked the wrong athletes to compare.
Gatlin had 4 years off and Butch had 2 years away.

Kim Collins and Angelo Taylor are better comparisons.


Why?

I think 'my' guys fit more with my view. The two you mentionsed are extraordinary. They have extended their "usefulness". More credit to them The exceptions.

They way I interpreted your statement is that you don't think Wariner's decline has anything to do with how much he has run/competed in his career.

Gatlin took 4 years out from the sport, no competitive racing at all. When he came back he didn't have as many miles in his legs.
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