ExCoastRanger wrote:Just sayin... if somebody opened up this topic looking for a discussion of the women's 200m, they might just give up after wading through pages and pages of nationalistic chest puffing and seemingly endless "expert" opines about the relays -- each of which, btw, have their own forum topic where no doubt many of these same comments will be repeated by the same characters. This thread is a mess.
Don't be a wise guy.I will take this over to the 4x100 so you Americans can enjoy Felix victory
jazzcyclist wrote:Running4life, it seems like you have problems accepting the idea that speed in fungible on relays, and that good exchannges are more important than having your fastest person on anchor.
Lmao Jeter could drop the baton and still fly pass Kerron.I am done with this.Will be here bright and early to say I TOLD YOU YOU
jazzcyclist wrote:Running4life, it seems like you have problems accepting the idea that speed in fungible on relays, and that good exchannges are more important than having your fastest person on anchor.
Lmao Jeter could drop the baton and still fly pass Kerron.I am done with this.Will be here bright and early to say I TOLD YOU YOU
t_monk wrote:So where you going to put Stewart? kmt.... This is the best line up we have....
SAFP - Simpson - VCB - KS
why do you keep saying that when Kerron is not strong enough to anchor?
Let me start by saying that as long as JA and US finishes the race and have decent (not even great) changes it is a 1-2 between these two countries. So the idea that irrespective of the line-up that Jamaica will get anything less than a silver is just fallacious.
Now as it pertains to VCB being on anchor in place of KS... You can say that yes, but quite frankly by your standard it would be better to have SAFP on anchor and not VCB then if you are looking for someone to run with/run down Jeter. So why not say SAFP should be running anchor?
The fact is if Jeter gets the baton before VCB on anchor, Jeter runs away with this and if KS runs the third leg that is EXACTLY what is going to happen. We have a better chance of getting in front of Jeter and hoping to hold on. I agree that Kerron is not in 2008/2009 form but she does have top end speed but with no start and with no curve running ability this season.
The main reason to have Kerron on anchor over VCB is because we gain more from having VCB on 3rd and Kerron on anchor than vice versa. We will have a great curve from VCB and an average - good anchor from Kerron. While conversely we would have a bad - average curve from Kerron and a good-great anchor from VCB. VCB will BLAST anyone on the curve but she will struggle to catch Jeter on anchor. KS will struggle on the curve against anyone but on the anchor she can hold off most people AND WITH enough a lead (with a doubled Jeter and well rested) Kerron CAN actually hold off Jeter.
Shelly can go anywhere if you ask me... but she is the best starter. It would be either Shelly or VCB starting if you ask me. Shelly is our starter and should stay there.
Sherone runs good backstretch... and has to be on a straight because she simply has not run any good curves this year. She also has been having very crappy starts... So again she must run a straight... She runs good backstretch so she runs that leg.
VCB.... best turn runner ever.... and will decimate anyone the US puts on the curve....
Stewart.... With enough of a lead she CAN hold off Jeter.
If Jeter is in the lead at the start of the anchor leg.... US wins....
running4life wrote:Well well well, VCB fans are up in arms about Kerron running anchor.Jeter is going to blaze pass Kerro, what is Jamaica thinking? kerron didn't even make it to the 100 finals.Why would you replace the best anchor that Jamaica has for a lame Kerron? Jeter is going to blow Kerron away and open up the gap more on Kerron.VCB is a fighter and always close the gap whenever she is running anchor.Don't feed me that busllshit about vcb is the best turn runner.
Your argument seems based on you assuming that the baton gets to the anchor at the same time regardless of the previous three runners. You're forgetting the difference in time between VCB running the curve and a left-handed Stewart getting the baton in her right hand (remember Beijing?) and running the curve. Those are not two equal scenarios. If Stewart runs the curve you can best believe that VCB would be receiving the baton behind Jeter and VCB will not catch Jeter with a running start, period. With VCB running the curve it is likely that Stewart gets the baton with a lead, and Jeter will have to catch Stewart before the line.
When arguing relay positions it is important to understand all of the dynamics of a relay, which doesn't seem to be the case for you (sorry to say but that is the impression you convey).
S-AF-P is our best starter and a very good curve runner. She runs leg 1. Simpson has shown no start this year and not much curve running ability. She qualified for the 200m by running past VCB on the straight at trials. She runs leg 2. VCB = curve, the end. Leg 3. Stewart, like Simpson, has shown no great start this year but still has decent straight line speed. Leg 4. That's the four ladies placed in the best position for their respective talents. That represents the best order, given the 2012 circumstances of each runner. It is their best shot of winning gold. It is up to them to execute a proper relay race.
TrackFan4Ever wrote: So now 2008 through 2011 were lost years for Felix.
From an improvement standpoint, yes(not to mention one individual gold in three championship meets).
This isn't fair.
Felix ran under 21 for the first time after Osaka in 2008. Ran under 11 for the first time in 2008. And ran under 50 for the first time since 2007, in 2008.
2009, she won the W gold.
2010, she focused primarily on the 400m and won every race she competed in, without putting forth maximum effort. She also won the 100m title at US champs.
2011, she ran under 50 2 or 3 times and broke her 400m pr from Stockholm, losing to Montsho by a hair for the gold. She was back on the track the next day after, too. And very narrowly lost the silver to Jeter.
These were all prime improvement years for Felix as a sprinter. All of those years are the reason she's as good as she is today.
I'll never understand why Americans take their uberly successful and talented sprinters for a pile of dust. I still wish Nicola gave a toss about getting back to peak form. Be thankful
I am curious what Guru will have to say about your analysis. Of course, he will point out that Allyson never ran under 21, but we know you meant 22. His major premise seems to be Felix' times have not improved since 2007, thus 2008 - 2011 were lost years according to him. Yet, he does not use that barometer for other athletes. Also, you have demonstrated that 2008 to 2011 were clearly not lost years!
What are the odds we'll see VCB in Rio? AF has already said that she believes she has one more Olympics left in her and that Rio was a definite possibility.
GDAWG wrote:What are the odds we'll see VCB in Rio? AF has already said that she believes she has one more Olympics left in her and that Rio was a definite possibility.
Felix is 4 years younger than her through. It would all depend on the talent pool in Jamaica and if there is a major SAFP 2008 like break through from another athlete in 4 years.
Felix is so far ahead of most talent in the US that in 4 years, even when she starts slowing down, she should still be good for another team.
GDAWG wrote:What are the odds we'll see VCB in Rio? AF has already said that she believes she has one more Olympics left in her and that Rio was a definite possibility.
Felix is 4 years younger than her through. It would all depend on the talent pool in Jamaica and if there is a major SAFP 2008 like break through from another athlete in 4 years.
Felix is so far ahead of most talent in the US that in 4 years, even when she starts slowing down, she should still be good for another team.
GDAWG wrote:What are the odds we'll see VCB in Rio? AF has already said that she believes she has one more Olympics left in her and that Rio was a definite possibility.
Felix is 4 years younger than her through. It would all depend on the talent pool in Jamaica and if there is a major SAFP 2008 like break through from another athlete in 4 years.
Felix is so far ahead of most talent in the US that in 4 years, even when she starts slowing down, she should still be good for another team.
Four years is a long time for new talent to emerge (eg. Gardener, Duncan, etc.).
GDAWG wrote:What are the odds we'll see VCB in Rio? AF has already said that she believes she has one more Olympics left in her and that Rio was a definite possibility.
Felix is 4 years younger than her through. It would all depend on the talent pool in Jamaica and if there is a major SAFP 2008 like break through from another athlete in 4 years.
Felix is so far ahead of most talent in the US that in 4 years, even when she starts slowing down, she should still be good for another team.
Four years is a long time for new talent to emerge (eg. Gardener, Duncan, etc.).
I see Gardner being a 100 meter favorite and Duncan being a 200 favorite. Those two are the child prodigies who will blossom in the Rio generation. Gardner will be 24 and by then be a 10.7 sprinter and Duncan will be 25 and be a 21.8 sprinters(my hopeful predictions).
GDAWG wrote:What are the odds we'll see VCB in Rio? AF has already said that she believes she has one more Olympics left in her and that Rio was a definite possibility.
Felix is 4 years younger than her through. It would all depend on the talent pool in Jamaica and if there is a major SAFP 2008 like break through from another athlete in 4 years.
Felix is so far ahead of most talent in the US that in 4 years, even when she starts slowing down, she should still be good for another team.
Four years is a long time for new talent to emerge (eg. Gardener, Duncan, etc.).
I agree, but since Felix and Muna lee, how many younger athlets have made the 200m team? I do think there will be new comers, but I think Felix will still be fit enough to not only make the team, but challenge for another medal.
GDAWG wrote:What are the odds we'll see VCB in Rio? AF has already said that she believes she has one more Olympics left in her and that Rio was a definite possibility.
Felix is 4 years younger than her through. It would all depend on the talent pool in Jamaica and if there is a major SAFP 2008 like break through from another athlete in 4 years.
Felix is so far ahead of most talent in the US that in 4 years, even when she starts slowing down, she should still be good for another team.
Four years is a long time for new talent to emerge (eg. Gardener, Duncan, etc.).
I agree, but since Felix and Muna lee, how many younger athlets have made the 200m team? I do think there will be new comers, but I think Felix will still be fit enough to not only make the team, but challenge for another medal.
GDAWG wrote:What are the odds we'll see VCB in Rio? AF has already said that she believes she has one more Olympics left in her and that Rio was a definite possibility.
Felix is 4 years younger than her through. It would all depend on the talent pool in Jamaica and if there is a major SAFP 2008 like break through from another athlete in 4 years.
Felix is so far ahead of most talent in the US that in 4 years, even when she starts slowing down, she should still be good for another team.
I think that Felix will be better in four years. Despite her running the 100 in London, her times at 200 and 4x400 were marginally slower than at Osaka in 2007 where she declined the 100 after making the team.
IMHO she has the ability to break WRs at 200 & 400. Her 100 PR is slower than Marita Koch's PR of 10.83 in 1983 - when Koch also ran only relay 400s - but her 200 PR is 0.02 faster than Koch's 21.71, so a 47.1 is reasonable.
I'm not a sprint expert, but I suspect that Felix should have done as Jeter did in 2011 between nationals and Daegu and run three 100s and two 200s - not the one 200 that she did run. Perhaps those races would have given her the speed to produce a sub - 49 at Daegu in the open 400.
In 2012 she has run about 14 100s, seven 200s and three 4x400 relay legs, but she could have added three 200s and 400s before London in lieu of her strenous workouts - probably with even better results. In 2007 she ran 35 races as a fulltime college student. As a track & field fan, I look forward to Felix's improving at her best distances.
Gleason wrote:IMHO she has the ability to break WRs at 200 & 400. Her 100 PR is slower than Marita Koch's PR of 10.83 in 1983 - when Koch also ran only relay 400s - but her 200 PR is 0.02 faster than Koch's 21.71, so a 47.1 is reasonable.
I'm not a sprint expert
I think that much was obvious from the previous sentence
How is it that her reported specific work and comp prep nearest to the left of the F/T curve produces faster major SpecEnd performances than those reported prep efforts at the AnT junction? Is she simply more responsive with absolute speed and creative reserve functions (SE, IT, etc.) than the more popular gross durations of anaerobic (high lactate producing) and aerobic work for 400 related events?
Gleason wrote:...but her 200 PR is 0.02 faster than Koch's 21.71, so a 47.1 is reasonable.
Gleason wrote:I'm not a sprint expert....
I can tell...
I'm happy to read a disagreement with my theory, but I'm disappointed that no reason was given. In the past five global meets Felix has run the fastest 4x400 leg. In 2010 she ran four open 400s outdoors, was ranked first in the world and defeated Montsho in all four races. On her IAAF blog she admitted that she "trained through" the US Indoor championships which may have kept her from winning the 2010 World Indoor 400.
She won the US 100 title in the non - championship year of 2010, so I was surprised that she didn't run any open 100s in 2011. She seems to have her best results when she runs about 10 each of the 100, 200 and 400. George Young said that "the best workout is a race," so I hope that Felix races more leading to four gold medals in Rio at 200, 400, 4x100 and 4x400.
GDAWG wrote:What are the odds we'll see VCB in Rio? AF has already said that she believes she has one more Olympics left in her and that Rio was a definite possibility.
Felix is 4 years younger than her through. It would all depend on the talent pool in Jamaica and if there is a major SAFP 2008 like break through from another athlete in 4 years.
Felix is so far ahead of most talent in the US that in 4 years, even when she starts slowing down, she should still be good for another team.
Four years is a long time for new talent to emerge (eg. Gardener, Duncan, etc.).
I see Gardner being a 100 meter favorite and Duncan being a 200 favorite. Those two are the child prodigies who will blossom in the Rio generation. Gardner will be 24 and by then be a 10.7 sprinter and Duncan will be 25 and be a 21.8 sprinters(my hopeful predictions).
My thinking was also that Gardner is a 100-type -- and then I saw her relay leg at NCAAs and suddenly my perspective changed.
As for VCB, I saw no particular decline in her performance until suddenly this year she was not on the same level. Rather than contend for another 200 Gold she barely held on for fourth (although she did medal in the 100). I will wait until next year to get more info, but if this was not a bit of an anomaly, she will not be a major player four years from now -- not saying that if she just focuses on the 100 for speed but the 200 only for the Games that she might not medal again. AF's return to the 100 for speed has made the 200 more of a challenge for VCB. (But she medaled with two great 100 runners for competition.)
Gleason wrote:...but her 200 PR is 0.02 faster than Koch's 21.71, so a 47.1 is reasonable.
Gleason wrote:I'm not a sprint expert....
I can tell...
I'm happy to read a disagreement with my theory, but I'm disappointed that no reason was given. In the past five global meets Felix has run the fastest 4x400 leg. In 2010 she ran four open 400s outdoors, was ranked first in the world and defeated Montsho in all four races. On her IAAF blog she admitted that she "trained through" the US Indoor championships which may have kept her from winning the 2010 World Indoor 400.
She won the US 100 title in the non - championship year of 2010, so I was surprised that she didn't run any open 100s in 2011. She seems to have her best results when she runs about 10 each of the 100, 200 and 400. George Young said that "the best workout is a race," so I hope that Felix races more leading to four gold medals in Rio at 200, 400, 4x100 and 4x400.
Relay splits are not good indicators of an athletes flat time. The idea that her 200m and 100m times mean she can take .5 off the 400m world record right now is simply ridiculous. There would have been tons of sprinters who would have run sub 48 by now if that was the case.
She won the US 100 title in the non - championship year of 2010, so I was surprised that she didn't run any open 100s in 2011. She seems to have her best results when she runs about 10 each of the 100, 200 and 400. George Young said that "the best workout is a race," so I hope that Felix races more leading to four gold medals in Rio at 200, 400, 4x100 and 4x400.[/quote]
Relay splits are not good indicators of an athletes flat time. The idea that her 200m and 100m times mean she can take .5 off the 400m world record right now is simply ridiculous. There would have been tons of sprinters who would have run sub 48 by now if that was the case.[/quote]
Why not? Who else has run 10.89, 21.69 and 48.0r? Koch (48.55 at 1983 WCh) and Flojo (48.1 at 1988 OG) ran strong relay legs in a season where they concentrated on the 100 and 200.
Gleason wrote:Why not? Who else has run 10.89, 21.69 and 48.0r? Koch (48.55 at 1983 WCh) and Flojo (48.1 at 1988 OG) ran strong relay legs in a season where they concentrated on the 100 and 200.
relay splits are not part of the equation. They are splits. Not open times I can give you 3 different splits from Felix's London 4x4. All are "Official".
And seriously think about why you said. Felix can run a 47.1?!
Gleason wrote:Why not? Who else has run 10.89, 21.69 and 48.0r? Koch (48.55 at 1983 WCh) and Flojo (48.1 at 1988 OG) ran strong relay legs in a season where they concentrated on the 100 and 200.
relay splits are not part of the equation. They are splits. Not open times I can give you 3 different splits from Felix's London 4x4. All are "Official".
And seriously think about why you said. Felix can run a 47.1?!
Felix runs second leg so she has a one turn stagger thereby having slight variation in splits. I use T&FN splits. Who predicted that the US 4x100 would improve by 0.65 over a team of 15 years ago and by 0.75 over the 2011 team? Again, who else has Felix's PRs? Thanks for a thoughtful reply.
Gleason wrote:Why not? Who else has run 10.89, 21.69 and 48.0r? Koch (48.55 at 1983 WCh) and Flojo (48.1 at 1988 OG) ran strong relay legs in a season where they concentrated on the 100 and 200.
relay splits are not part of the equation. They are splits. Not open times I can give you 3 different splits from Felix's London 4x4. All are "Official".
And seriously think about why you said. Felix can run a 47.1?!
Felix runs second leg so she has a one turn stagger thereby having slight variation in splits. I use T&FN splits. Who predicted that the US 4x100 would improve by 0.65 over a team of 15 years ago and by 0.75 over the 2011 team? Again, who else has Felix's PRs? Thanks for a thoughtful reply.
Marion Jones Merlene Ottey Heike Drechsler Grace Jackson Gwen Torrence
Then you have athletes who have run amazing 400's who your technically claiming to either have "under" performed in the other events, or "over" performed in the 400m
Jarmila Kratochvílová Marie-José Pérec Olga Vladykina-Bryzgina Cathy Freeman (Probably the best example considering how much she has run the 200 and never even broke 22.2!) Sanya Richards Ross
The idea that an athlete can run an extremely fast 400 based off their 100m and 200m times is completely untrue. The 400 is a completely different event.
And again think about what you arre claiming. Felix can run a 47.1?!
ATK wrote:Marion Jones Merlene Ottey Heike Drechsler Grace Jackson Gwen Torrence Then you have athletes who have run amazing 400's who your technically claiming to either have "under" performed in the other events, or "over" performed in the 400m Jarmila Kratochvílová Marie-José Pérec Olga Vladykina-Bryzgina Cathy Freeman (Probably the best example considering how much she has run the 200 and never even broke 22.2!) Sanya Richards Ross The idea that an athlete can run an extremely fast 400 based off their 100m and 200m times is completely untrue. The 400 is a completely different event. And again think about what you arre claiming. Felix can run a 47.1?!
I agree but Jones, Ottey, Drechsler, Jackson and Torrence never ran 400 at a global meet.
For all those that are faster at 100 than 200, you can just about forget about them being that good in the 400 (certainly 47-type good).
The notion that AF can improve on her 48-low relay legs to run a 47.5 after she showed she could win 400s but not begin to scare 48.99 seems somewhere past fantasy for people that are as knowledgeable as those posting and reading regularly here.
ChuiTai wrote:How is it that her reported specific work and comp prep nearest to the left of the F/T curve produces faster major SpecEnd performances than those reported prep efforts at the AnT junction? Is she simply more responsive with absolute speed and creative reserve functions (SE, IT, etc.) than the more popular gross durations of anaerobic (high lactate producing) and aerobic work for 400 related events?
[My thinking was also that Gardner is a 100-type -- and then I saw her relay leg at NCAAs and suddenly my perspective changed.
As for VCB, I saw no particular decline in her performance until suddenly this year she was not on the same level. Rather than contend for another 200 Gold she barely held on for fourth (although she did medal in the 100). I will wait until next year to get more info, but if this was not a bit of an anomaly, she will not be a major player four years from now -- not saying that if she just focuses on the 100 for speed but the 200 only for the Games that she might not medal again. AF's return to the 100 for speed has made the 200 more of a challenge for VCB. (But she medaled with two great 100 runners for competition.)[/quote][/quote][/quote]
Even though I do believe English Gardners greatest strength is the 100 like you I believe she had untapped potential in some of the longer sprints. She has a 53.98 from 2006 when she was only 14! Many 100 meter specialists at the elite level couldnt run a 400 that well( Shelly Ann Fraser is an example). Carmelita Jeter also has a 53.9 pb at 400 so that puts it into perspective. English was a 200/400 specialist who moved down and that seems to be a prereq in many of the extreme greats(Bolt, Koch, Flo Jo). I expect big things from her.
I also don't really think VCB showed any sort of decline at all. I think she just prioritzied differently. For her winning the 100 and having a complete resume was more important than a three peat. She ran a couple of low 10.8x and a 7.01 indoors. Her starts at times can rival even Shelly's if only she could just be consistent with them. Keep in mind as well that she tried to coach herself(not always a good idea). The key for Veronica is just to stay injury free and I am sure there will be many years of good running left from her. More and more we are seeing that late 20's are no longer the cut off point in track and field anymore. Its just that ppl get complacent or don't train wisely or get too adjusted to routines that there body has adapted to and no longer provides stimulus. I see VCB at the next two world championships and possibly in Rio as well.
