¶2012 OG: w800–Mariya Savinova (Russia) 1:56.19 WL

[dj]

T&FN formchart advancers to final

1. Pamela Jelimo (Kenya)
2. Mariya Savinova (Russia)
3. Fantu Magiso (Ethiopia)
4. Caster Semenya (South Africa)
5. Alysia Montaño (USA)
6. Francine Niyonsaba (Burundi)
7. Yelena Arzhakova (Russia)
8. Janeth Jepkosgei (Kenya)
9. Yekaterina Poistogova (Russia)
10. Natalya Lupu (Ukraine)

[Marlow]

T&FN formchart
4. Caster Semenya

Another one who can win or DNF.

[Master Po]

good point re Semenya -- who knows?

The variables in this event seem, well, really variable. There's Semenya, of course, as Marlow notes, and also Niyonsaba. I wonder if anyone knows what other athletes have made OG formcharts with such a thin competition record in this event -- maybe it happens all the time in this wild event, but it seems noteworthy for Niyonsaba. iirc, even Jelimo in 2008 had by the time of the OG 7 or 8 800 races that season, including 4 big European meets. (And, even though it wasn't in her eventual signature event, she had competed for Kenya in 2007 at 400m at the African Junior Championships).

By contrast, I think Niyonsaba has, total, 4 800 races:
(1) before the African championships -- no info on that -- maybe her own country's selection meet for the African championships?
(2-3) two races at the African Championships -- 2:02.13 & 1:59.11
(4) Monaco 1:58.58

This of course is ready for correction, but as far as I know, that's it for her 800m (and entire) competition record. So she's a wildcard, too. I can equally easily imagine her disappearing in the first round or being in the mix in the final.

[DecFan]

I can equally easily imagine her disappearing in the first round or being in the mix in the final.

Or running PRs of 1:58 and 1:57 in the first round and semi, with four or five significant accelerations in each, and then dying completely in the final.

I sure hope she has a coach who is preparing her for what is ahead.

[nevetsllim]

It might not be a bad idea for Niyonsaba to make things simple and just to go out hard in the heats because she got herself in all sorts of trouble in the pack in Monaco. She ran the first lap in the African Champs in 57.3 so she's not a stranger to front-running.

BTW her first race was in Kampala in 2:02.29 to qualify for the African Champs.

[trevorp]

Magiso out:
http://af.reuters.com/article/sportsNew ... 0S20120807

[EPelle]

Heat 1: Montaño stormed to the front in this first heat -- 55,55 alone; 1.27,22 (followed by Semenya and Hachlaf); 2.00,48 for Montaño; Semenya closed for 2nd.

[croflash]

I know it's Montano, but... has she lost her mind? 55.55 for the first 400 Even Marilyn Okoro would take offense to that.

[j-a-m]

55,55 alone

3 second gap after the first lap

[j-a-m]

1:08.00 first lap in the third heat, guess nobody's gonna qualify over time out of this one...

[croflash]

What a bizarre race. 68 seconds at the 400 mark and 3 women did not start.

[shivfan]

What a bizarre race. 68 seconds at the 400 mark and 3 women did not start.

Including Kenia Sinclair....

[croflash]

Krevsun DNF...

[lapsus]

So many DNS and DNF, inequal heats

[andyjgt]

Arzamasava likes to front run and yet she let Arzhakova control it in 68?! Madness! (and she failed to qualify)

[j-a-m]

Arzamasava likes to front run and yet she let Arzhakova control it in 68?! Madness! (and she failed to qualify)

Yeah, the second heat already with a 68 second first lap.

[j-a-m]

Just caught a glimpse of Lewis Johnson about to interview the last place finisher.

[aaronk]

Did Gall get in as the 6th fastest??
The last heat results not up yet, but I think she's 6th fastest!!
If so, all 3 Americans go on to the semis!

(Edit) YES!!!!
She made it, so USA has 3 in the semis!!

[mump boy]

Despite the top end of this event being VERY strong i have NEVER seen such piss poor qualifying DNS all over the place and 2.08 qualifying to next round

[nevetsllim]

Arzamasava likes to front run and yet she let Arzhakova control it in 68?! Madness! (and she failed to qualify)

I wonder if she was put off by her run at the European Champs when she faded badly after a fast opening lap.

Until this summer I always thought Arzhakova was a better 1500m runner but she's done well over 800m this year. Along with Savinova, she's a good tactician too.

[pakillo]

Arzamasava, Bishop, Masna - terrible tactic... 68 first lap!

[andyjgt]

Arzamasava, Bishop, Masna - terrible tactic... 68 first lap!

Not as if Lupu, Arzhakova or Koech really pushed it either...when all 6 could have easily run sub-2:02 and gone through.

Was thinking Sharp might actually run the A qualifier racing Gall and Krevsun for 2nd and 3rd!

Again, the semis are unbalanced. Semi 2 looks amazing, semi 3 terrible given Gall and Akkaoui's heat runs.

[Alan Shank]

Did Gall get in as the 6th fastest??
The last heat results not up yet, but I think she's 6th fastest!!
If so, all 3 Americans go on to the semis!

(Edit) YES!!!!
She made it, so USA has 3 in the semis!!

Well, Gall ran quite poorly, but benefited from three DNS by better athletes and no re-seeding. Montano is truly an idiot, and she's in that tough 2nd semi.
Cheers,
Alan Shank

[aaronk]

Despite the top end of this event being VERY strong i have NEVER seen such piss poor qualifying DNS all over the place and 2.08 qualifying to next round

I fully agree with you that the slow races (2:07--2:08) were samples of "piss poor" Q'ing!!

But really, were they any worse than 3:28 guys going 3:40+ or 12:46 guys going 13:50 or something, or 3:56 women going 4:10, etc etc??

Something needs to be done to ensure there's no more of these "piss poor" heats or semis.
Maybe eliminate auto Q's, and make ALL finalists have to get in on a time basis.

If that means that less than 8 or 12 or 15 or whatever get into a final, so be it!!
I'd rather see 5 finalists (when there should be 8), or 11 (instead of 15) who have actually RUN to get there!!!

[Alan Shank]

Despite the top end of this event being VERY strong i have NEVER seen such piss poor qualifying DNS all over the place and 2.08 qualifying to next round

I fully agree with you that the slow races (2:07--2:08) were samples of "piss poor" Q'ing!!

But really, were they any worse than 3:28 guys going 3:40+ or 12:46 guys going 13:50 or something, or 3:56 women going 4:10, etc etc??

Something needs to be done to ensure there's no more of these "piss poor" heats or semis.
Maybe eliminate auto Q's, and make ALL finalists have to get in on a time basis.

If that means that less than 8 or 12 or 15 or whatever get into a final, so be it!!
I'd rather see 5 finalists (when there should be 8), or 11 (instead of 15) who have actually RUN to get there!!!

I really don't understand this desire to "legislate" a certain way of qualifying. Everybody understands the rules (well, maybe not everybody -- remember Brooks in the OT) and can make their plans accordingly. Again, and again, people, the athletes are NOT running for YOU!
Cheers,
Alan Shank

[sprintzfan]

I know it's Montano, but... has she lost her mind? 55.55 for the first 400

Yeah, is anyone here able to make sense of how she ran that heat? Does it make any sense at all?

The 800 isn't a race a follow the most closely, but I had never seen anything like that. That kind of gap between the leader and the field. Not even Mutola.

For those of you who have run or just understand this event better than myself, please share if you see wisdom in how Montano ran that race.

Thanks.

p.s. I know cell phones can affect the health of the brain. Can flowers?

[sprintzfan]

Just caught a glimpse of Lewis Johnson about to interview the last place finisher.

LOL. An American no doubt. For NBC only Americans run these races anyway. "Foreigners" are basically invisible.

[andyjgt]

In Osaka, we had two athletes (S Ait-Hammou and Cherkasova - yes, both cheats admittedly) not qualifying with sub-2:01!

In Beijing, the fastest DNQ was Hazel Clark in 2:01.59. All time qualifiers were under 2:01. Mutola ran sub-1:59 and Okoro 1:59 flat.

(Admittedly no Magiso, Lobanova and Sinclair made heat 3 a farce, but still...)

[Master Po]

Just caught a glimpse of Lewis Johnson about to interview the last place finisher.

LOL. An American no doubt. For NBC only Americans run these races anyway. "Foreigners" are basically invisible.

Actually, it was the athlete representing KSA, Sarah Attar. USA-born, w dual citizenship. First (of two at this OG) woman to represent KSA at the OG. Thus, (a) an American; (b) a "foreigner" in many Americans' eyes (no one here, mind you, don't jump on me); and (c) a human interest story. So, for NBC a broadcasting trifecta! Can't wait for the prime-time broadcast!

[sprintzfan]

KSA is Saudi Arabia?

If so Iguess I get it now. Political. A woman in Muslim nation story.

[Master Po]

Regarding the "piss-poor" qualifying heats, I agree w Alan Shank, above. Any qualifying procedure is going to have its hazards and benefits. Presumably all athletes (at least the real contenders for the next round) know their own capabilities, know who they're running against, and have thought about a range of alternatives depending on how the race develops (wildly fast for a heat, a la Montano or weirdly slow, a la Heat 5). For any scenario, the athlete needs to think about what she will do, in a range of scenarios. As noted, Heat 3 was uninteresting, but that was because of the DNS athletes. I actually thought Heat 5 was interesting -- no I wouldn't want to see this sort of racing every day, but as soon as Arzhakova (who I took to be setting the terms) slowed way down, my interest way piqued -- at that point, all the other runners had a decision to make -- let Arzhakova set this too-slow tempo, or keep moving and run the race at a pace that might better suit them. They decided to let Arzhakova set it up for her preferences, so apparently all of them thought they had a fast enough last 200 ready. Only 3 were correct. That gamble made the heat interesting.

If the qualifying rules were changed, e.g., to time-based (as in swimming, which I wouldn't support), it would of course change the strategies, and would introduce different benefits and hazards. I would guess that in any procedure, 2-3 of the top 24 (by PB) would not advance. That's the way it always goes.

I thought Arzhakova's and Montano's strategies, while very different in the details, expressed the same rationale: I'm going to take control of this heat and run it the way I want to, to make sure I get a Q -- you all can do what you want, but I know I'm going to Q. Two interesting extreme examples of this rationale. Will be curious to see how they do in the semi.

[uakari]

kingdom of saudi arabia.

couldn't they have come up with someone who could at least beat the palestinian girl?

[Alan Shank]

If the qualifying rules were changed, e.g., to time-based (as in swimming, which I wouldn't support), it would of course change the strategies, and would introduce different benefits and hazards. I would guess that in any procedure, 2-3 of the top 24 (by PB) would not advance. That's the way it always goes.

If it were time-based, then everyone would have the same strategy. The combination of place/time qualification makes for more varied races, which, AFAIC, is more interesting. It's like in baseball, in the NL all the managers are forced by the lack of the DH to follow the same, tired old strategies - sacrifice, walk the #8 hitter, pinch hit for the pitcher, whereas in the AL there is much more diversity, as indicated by the much larger standard deviations in numbers of SH, IBB, PH, even SB, because of more one-run strategies.

I thought Arzhakova's and Montano's strategies, while very different in the details, expressed the same rationale: I'm going to take control of this heat and run it the way I want to, to make sure I get a Q -- you all can do what you want, but I know I'm going to Q. Two interesting extreme examples of this rationale. Will be curious to see how they do in the semi.

Yes, but Montano didn't need to run 55.55 to control the race; she just doesn't get the whole concept of oxygen debt/lactic acid. Even slowing way down the last 200, you can't get that energy back; like time, it's gone!
Cheers,
Alan Shank

[az2004]

agree fully. with alan shank

[sprintzfan]

...I thought Arzhakova's and Montano's strategies, while very different in the details, expressed the same rationale: I'm going to take control of this heat and run it the way I want to, to make sure I get a Q -- you all can do what you want, but I know I'm going to Q. Two interesting extreme examples of this rationale. Will be curious to see how they do in the semi.

Well okay. It will be interesting to see in the semis what Montano has left in the tank. She really flew that first 400 or 600. It looked highly exhausting to me.