Would like to see Farah do well...but it's his race to lose and I have a feeling the Ethiopian's are going to spoil his gold chances. And Rupp may surpize...he'sin the form of his life right now. Don't expect him to medal but he'll be in the fight and finish in top 6-7.
Randy Treadway wrote:So what's the opinion on Lagat's chances?
If, in order to avoid a repeat of the 10K results and Mo & Rupp's big kick, the East Africans take it out hard from the gun and push the pace, where does that leave Lagat?
I don't think Gebremeskel and Gebrhiwet are afraid of Farah, Lagat, Rupp or anyone else. They have run sub 12:50 this season and still had a crazy kick at the end, I see those two as the favorites regardless of the pace and tactics. The field is stronger in this event compared to the 5000.
this time in the final however it will really be every man for himself. moe helped rupp for sure to that silver while assisting his own chances too. in the 5k however look for rupp to not give mo one or two steps this time at the bell. this time it will be really who is the best man, now rupp has the benefit of understanding the reality of his predicament and condition. it's real man. the 11.03 100m is real. and it'll really kill em all.
that big fast race in 12:4x where nearly everyone drafted off a fast pace is kind of screwing up peoples analysis. when you get such a cordial perfect draft pace in nearly perfect conditions, the 62 second lap is easy as a 63-64 alone.
since rupps and moe's workouts are harder than the 10k final they just ran, it figures that they will be super ready for the 5k. that 10k they just ran might be even considered good training on its own! only the super fit could venture to say that...
look for the ethopians to be more respectful of al-sal group. times are a changing.
with all that said, this race is much harder to pick, with so many legitimate contenders.
ok moe has to be favorite = gold again rupp for silver ethopia gets the bronze again. and in kenya, heads roll.
Randy Treadway wrote:So what's the opinion on Lagat's chances? If, in order to avoid a repeat of the 10K results and Mo & Rupp's big kick, the East Africans take it out hard from the gun and push the pace, where does that leave Lagat?
Mottram took on the initial pacing, gave up the pace to Rupp. Pace slowed somewhat. Mottram re-captured the lead near 3km. Kipsiro pushed the pace with four to go. Gebremeskel takes it. Four across for 2nd-6th, including Lagat. Rupp 6th.
Lagat: 13.15,45Q; Rupp: 13.17,56Q
e = estimated as athletes crossed line without clock stopping
Last edited by EPelle on Wed Aug 08, 2012 2:25 am, edited 1 time in total.
Remarkably good running in the heats! Not sure about Rupp, although he must have known he was going to be OK despite missing the Q; he didn't seem concerned. In his heat, last K was 2:26.2, 54.3; 1st head, about the same off a slower pace. Ibrahimov only five seconds off his PB. Collis Birmingham very disappointing, also Lebid, a cross-country specialist. Cheers, Alan Shank
If someone had told me a week ago that the USA would have more runners in the 5k final than Kenya ... that we would have two across the finish in the men's 1500 before any Kenyan ... and that Rupp would go silver (I thought/hoped he would get bronze) in the 10k, but the top Kenyan would be 5th ... I would have said Sure! What'ya smokin?
Kenya still has the deepest talent base of any nation, but my, oh my, this has been a nightmare Olympics for them. The crazy thing is they went out of their way to (1) have the 10k trials at sea level in a climate similar to London, and (2) emphasize the importance of the Team camp & team spirit.
They still have some bright spots;
- Gold & Bronze in the 3000St, - Silver in the wMar, although no other nation can call a 2-4-20 a disappointment, - Rudisha looking powerful, - Still a powerful looking mMar team, and - don't forget Julius Yego in the men's javelin!
But there will be some head scratching and blame thrown around in AK circles after the Games. It will be interesting to see how the Kenyans do on the DL circuit after the Games. Will they revert to form and kick butt? Maybe they over thought everything in London, and need to get back to the Sammy Wanjiru approach of pedal to the metal from the gun.
In any case, this should be a smokin' final. I agree, I don't think G&G are afraid of anyone. Big question, as always, will be; Who sets the pace? Will the Kenyans just go for it? The Ethiopians? I don't think we'll see Rupp in the lead, even if by accident. He has a 3:34 under his belt and, along with the confidence from the 10k, believes he can kick with the Africans.
If it is slow to medium, Lagat will be there. If it is screaming and/or killer surges, it will be interesting to see if he (Lagat) still has it at age 37. And don't forget Lomong ... if it is slower than 13:00 pace, I think he will be in the mix. Iguider also.
Predictions? Farah the favorite, with G&G, Lagat & Rupp, Koech right behind, in just about any order.
Don't neglect Lopez Lomong in the final! His 3:32.20 is faster than Rupp and even faster than Farah and the more recent version of Lagat. And he did run that 53 second lap at Stanford, even though it was the "wrong" lap!! If he's ON, and if the race goes sub-13:00, look for Lomong to be right in there. Maybe 12:55??
The Ethiopians have been quoted as saying they made a mistake by letting the 10k be too slow so I expect them to make sure there is an honest pace. Expect a barnburner. I would be surprised if this race does not end up sub 13. Team tactics to play out probably with someone sacrificing themselves for their teammate(s).
aaronk wrote:Don't neglect Lopez Lomong in the final! His 3:32.20 is faster than Rupp and even faster than Farah and the more recent version of Lagat. And he did run that 53 second lap at Stanford, even though it was the "wrong" lap!! If he's ON, and if the race goes sub-13:00, look for Lomong to be right in there. Maybe 12:55??
Agree w aaronk about Lomong as a "person of interest." There are many of these in this final, including all the formchart names, Levins and Lomong. Along with his 1500m credentials, he has run 1:46 and 7:44 (WIC) this year. Also, that 5k at Stanford was -- in a very weird way -- maybe the most impressive 13:11 I've ever seen. I really think he could be a factor -- but I also think that about almost everyone, as I scan the list of finalists.
I have no idea how this race is going to go, but there are so many athletes of interest in it, and so many possibilities -- I hope it is a great one. I will be surprised if it goes under 13:00, but I've already been surprised by a bunch of things at this OG, so who knows?
Conor Dary wrote:Well that has been true for eternity and still the Oly 5ks can be a jog in the park for most of the race. The Kenyans have nothing to lose at this point, so maybe they will do something. A repeat of 1984! There was a race.
I loved that 1984 5k. The distance guys burned off the milers (Walker, Flynn, Coughlan?).
After the crazy results in the men's 1500m anything might happen. Also I share a sneaky feeling about Lomomg in anything but a fast race; far more likely for a slowish pace and a mad final 4 laps; depends on the moment of the day and who of half a dozen guys feels the strongest, certainly not to do with the best. Lagat, Rupp, Mo, Gebremeskel , my choice in the prediction contest I'm in. As for the Kenyans who must be feeling sick, maybe somebody from their guys will do the opposite of a slow lead and do a maddy.
realize that moe and rupp did not have the mental frame of mind to blast the last 200m, but to preserve and sprint only out of necessity.
you should not change your picks based on the heats.
heat 1 and heat 2 had the same times for km2-3-4-5 and last 400m.
moe was most probably instructed to come from behind on the #3 or 4 guy in the last 100m. and rupp the same thing except to be aware at the time at the bell and if he saw coming into the final straight 13.00 ish on the clock, to just coast in in #6-8 place.
for the guys that count in the final, most ran the same type of effort.
this one is tough to pick as it is real tough to gauge the athletes sharpness.