¶2012 OG: mDec–Ashton Eaton 8869, Trey Hardee 8671

[TimRoy]

Fair distinction drawn between projection and prediction, DecFan. And thank you, as always, for those projections.

So what is your prediction for the event? Would love to see your top eight, with accompanying ballpark scores (granting that things will happen, as they do in multi-events, to throw things out of whack)

For myself, and just for the fun of it:

Eaton, 8900
Hardee, 8650
Sintnicolaas, 8450

Behrenbruch, 8400
Suarez, 8350
Van Alphen, 8300
Freimuth, 8275
Mayer, 8250

Would love to see Van Alphen get up to the medals.

[Marlow]

Fair distinction drawn between projection and prediction, DecFan. And thank you, as always, for those projections.

Agree on both points!
The updated projections after each event IMMENSELY increase my enjoyment of the ongoing event.

[tgs3]

Projections before the 100m:

Eaton 8973
Hardee 8659
Suarez 8467
Behrenbruch 8407
Sintnicolaas 8404
Van Alphen 8364

I’ll add other decathletes to the projections if the early events indicate they are potential medalists.

Performances used in projections:
Eaton 10.28 7.95 14.35 2.08 46.10 13.55 43.75 5.15 59.00 4:20
Hardee 10.40 7.50 15.60 2.00 48.10 13.70 50.00 5.05 60.00 4:46
Suarez 11.10 7.20 14.50 2.06 49.20 14.30 45.50 4.90 72.00 4:24
Behrenbruch 10.90 7.00 16.20 1.97 48.60 14.20 48.00 4.80 67.00 4:34
Sintnicolaas 10.75 7.30 14.25 1.95 48.10 14.25 42.00 5.30 61.50 4:24
Van Alphen 11.05 7.45 15.10 2.00 49.40 14.70 46.50 4.80 64.50 4:20

This looks pretty reasonable to me. I'd pick Kevin Mayer and the other two Germans to be the most likely to crash the top 6. The real wildcard to me is Suarez. He was great at such an early age, and really seems to peak in big meets, but out of his last 11 decathlons, only one has been as high as his projection above. However, that was for a bronze in last year's WC. My personal pick for third is Behrenbruch, but it looks like it should be quite a dog fight, just like it was in the heptathlon.

[Wilmar]

Hello everybody,

Little over 12 hours to go to the start of the Olympic decathlon. If you’re interested in following the standings, the statistics, or else, you may be interested to check the Decathlon Forecasting Service at http://www.ergorej.net: http://www.ergorej.net/london2012/index.php?l=eng (specific English link).

The decathlon is a somewhat difficult event to follow well. An athlete can win an event - and you may still see him look absolutely disgusted (because he’s usually much better, with more points). Another will be deliriously happy with a 20th place in some event - because it’s a huge personal best, and points gain).

One way to figure this stuff out is by comparing the London results with a recent, good, decathlon from the same athlete. Many people do that stuff during events manually. However! We can (since 2005) thank Matti Vesterinen. He has built a website that does all this automatically.

At http://www.ergorej.net (available in ENG/FRA/FIN/SWE) all 30 competitors have been entered with the performances of their 2011/2012 best decathlon. During the meet, we will update the results (now in the gray bar between brackets) with the actual London performance - and keep track how much points they win/lose. That way:
- you can see fairly well which event went well for them.
- how much they are ‘in the plus/minus’ so far
- what they would score if they manage to equal their best decathlon-performances in the rest of the events (impossible to do exactly, of course)
- and what the relative positions then would be (in the Heptathlon, we saw Schwarzkopf’s rise coming, and wondered about Chernova)
That all said, even as it has a basis in recent historical numbers, it’s of course all mere projection. Some people thrive under pressure, others less so. Bad luck happens. Some get rain during their most important pts events, others don’t. It’s sport - and definitely enjoy the unpredictability! (also, all projections go out of the window before the 1500m
Even as it is all speculation, past experience teaches us it will most definitely prevent you (or journalists, if they pay attention from looking silly in predicting medals for people who have weak events late in the decathlon. And you (they will also not yell ‘how surprising’ about people moving up in the standings simply because their best events happen to be up last.

Anyway, long story. Feel free to check it all out - or not - tomorrow at http://www.ergorej.net.
We hope to update after each event - but if possible even per heat (running) / round (LJ, throws) / height (LJ/HJ/PV). I may or may not be able to add some more ‘reporting’ in the comments section. You can also provide feedback, we’ll try to get to it.

Thanks again to Matti (also for entering all those numbers)!

Best,
Wilmar Kortleever
(and somebody call me if nothing happens during the 100 meters - I’ll have slept through my 04:45 alarm ;;;-)

[DecFan]

If you’re interested in following the standings, the statistics, or else, you may be interested to check the Decathlon Forecasting Service at http://www.ergorej.net: http://www.ergorej.net/london2012/index.php?l=eng (specific English link).

This is a great site which I've used before. In addition to Wilmar's points, you can also modify the projections in any way you want.

[donley2]

Very much looking forward to both this competition and the discussion in this thread. This stuff is infinitely better than the crap on most of the sprint threads.

[Dave]

Here is to waking up, here on the west coast, to Eaton with 10.25, 8.15, and 14.6. or at least healthy with no disasters.

[DecFan]

Here we go . . . Mayer a disappointing 10.32 in the first heat.

[olorin]

Projections before the 100m:

Eaton 8973
Hardee 8659
Suarez 8467
Behrenbruch 8407
Sintnicolaas 8404
Van Alphen 8364

I’ll add other decathletes to the projections if the early events indicate they are potential medalists.

Performances used in projections:
Eaton 10.28 7.95 14.35 2.08 46.10 13.55 43.75 5.15 59.00 4:20
Hardee 10.40 7.50 15.60 2.00 48.10 13.70 50.00 5.05 60.00 4:46
Suarez 11.10 7.20 14.50 2.06 49.20 14.30 45.50 4.90 72.00 4:24
Behrenbruch 10.90 7.00 16.20 1.97 48.60 14.20 48.00 4.80 67.00 4:34
Sintnicolaas 10.75 7.30 14.25 1.95 48.10 14.25 42.00 5.30 61.50 4:24
Van Alphen 11.05 7.45 15.10 2.00 49.40 14.70 46.50 4.80 64.50 4:20

For each upcoming event, I’ll also let you know the approximate points that accrue for each increment in performance. For the 100m, each 0.10 is worth about 23 points.

Suarez slow with 11.27 loose ~40 points of his predicted score

[DecFan]

One of the questions has been which Suarez will show up - the Suarez who scored 8654 and had an OG bronze and WC silver before he was 22, or the athlete who recently has been scoring 300 to 400 points less. 11.27 Suarez indicates it may be the latter.

[j-a-m]

Why are the fastest runners in heat 3; aren't they normally in the last heat?

[dbirds]

Slow start for Sebrle 11.54 in his pursuit of 8000

[EPelle]

10,35 Eaton. Fastest Olympic dec 100m. Hardee 10,42.

[j-a-m]

Eaton 10.35, behind projection; Hardee 10.42

[j-a-m]

10,35 Eaton. Fastest Olympic dec 100m?

Apparently yes.

[DecFan]

Hardee is closest to projections so far, only 0.02 off. Eaton 33 points down on his WR pace - despite his 100m being an OG Dec record!

[j-a-m]

Van Alphen 11.05 as projected; Behrenbruch 11.06 behind projection

[DecFan]

Projections after the 100:

Eaton 8956
Hardee 8654
Suarez 8430
Sintnicolaas 8381
Behrenbruch 8371
Van Alphen 8364 (the only athlete to match his projection)

[olorin]

Hardee is closest to projections so far, only 0.02 off. Eaton 33 points down on his WR pace - despite his 100m being an OG Dec record!

The LJ is next. This is likely to be the most important event for Eaton. In Daegu he had a disaster that eventually cost him the gold. In Eugene his 8.23 propel him for the WR. This time he needs to ensure that he will jump around 7.80- 7.90 in order to open gap on Hardee.

[Jackaloupe]

Not as quick a start, but steady for Eaton; Hardee lookin' good. Wind had turned around to -0.7 by last heat. Isn't that favorable for LJ?

Nice weather, eh?

[Gabriella]

All 3 Germans had a slightly disappointing first event. Freimuth less so, but Nobel and Behrenbruch looked flat. It's not their strongest events but even so.

Hardee looked great and really pressed Eaton, who was a little tight at the end. But great times for the US guys

[DecFan]

Yes, a negative wind in the 100 should translate to a positive wind in the LJ.

As Olorin states, the LJ is among the most variable of the Dec events. This partly results from their getting only 3 attempts. A foul in the first round is hugely important. Here are the LJ results for these top athletes in their most recent 5 decathlons:

Eaton 7.43 7.90 7.80 7.46 8.23
Hardee 6.72 7.88 6.95 7.45 7.55
Van Alphen 7.62 7.88 6.95 7.45 7.55
Behrenbruch 7.21 6.80 6.73 7.09 7.15
Sintnicolaas 7.30 7.40 7.28 7.30 7.27
Suarez 7.21 7.02 7.33 7.39 6.85

At about 24 points for 10cm, you can see that there is a huge range in these scores. Note that Sintnicolaas is incredibly consistent.

[j-a-m]

Eaton 7.87 very solid first attempt

[olorin]

Yes, a negative wind in the 100 should translate to a positive wind in the LJ.

As Olorin states, the LJ is among the most variable of the Dec events. This partly results from their getting only 3 attempts. A foul in the first round is hugely important. Here are the LJ results for these top athletes in their most recent 5 decathlons:

Eaton 7.43 7.90 7.80 7.46 8.23
Hardee 6.72 7.88 6.95 7.45 7.55
Van Alphen 7.62 7.88 6.95 7.45 7.55
Behrenbruch 7.21 6.80 6.73 7.09 7.15
Sintnicolaas 7.30 7.40 7.28 7.30 7.27
Suarez 7.21 7.02 7.33 7.39 6.85

At about 24 points for 10cm, you can see that there is a huge range in these scores. Note that Sintnicolaas is incredibly consistent.

No second Daegu for Eaton, can now try to go for 8m+ jump.

[j-a-m]

Sebrle out of competition with slight injury.

[j-a-m]

Hardee 7.44 solid start

[olorin]

Yes, a negative wind in the 100 should translate to a positive wind in the LJ.

As Olorin states, the LJ is among the most variable of the Dec events. This partly results from their getting only 3 attempts. A foul in the first round is hugely important. Here are the LJ results for these top athletes in their most recent 5 decathlons:

Eaton 7.43 7.90 7.80 7.46 8.23
Hardee 6.72 7.88 6.95 7.45 7.55
Van Alphen 7.62 7.88 6.95 7.45 7.55
Behrenbruch 7.21 6.80 6.73 7.09 7.15
Sintnicolaas 7.30 7.40 7.28 7.30 7.27
Suarez 7.21 7.02 7.33 7.39 6.85

At about 24 points for 10cm, you can see that there is a huge range in these scores. Note that Sintnicolaas is incredibly consistent.

No second Daegu for Eaton, can now try to go for 8m+ jump.

DecFan - I believe that you should add Kasyanov to your predictions

[DecFan]

Suarez 7.52! 78 points above projections! Maybe the former medalist is showing up today!

[j-a-m]

Eaton's second attempt just foul; looked like it would've been an improvement otherwise.

[DecFan]

For Suarez, that's a new LJ PR. His previous 7.42 PR was from 2009. That's the first PR in a decathlon event he's set this year, and only the 2nd in the last two years.

[Jackaloupe]

7.87 first jump, followed by long foul (by ~2"), ~ 8m! Not that much wind, so it was all that runway speed. Suarez jumping well.

Awright! 8 'n 8 (0.8 wind)! Should've doubled!

[j-a-m]

Behrenbruch 7.15, exceeds projection in second attempt, after foul in first.

[DecFan]

Kevin Mayer - a darkhorse candidate for the bronze - has fouled his first two LJ attempts.

[j-a-m]

van Alphen 7.61 in second attempt. exceeds expectations.

[DecFan]

Van Alphen 7.61 - up on projections, and only 1cm off his PR.