I think that 29 medals for the US is a bit too optimistic as I predict "only" 26. The problem is not with individual predictions (they all make sense) but with the summing of these predictions to one number. For example let’s look at the 5,000m & 10000m. According to the prediction the US is expected to win two medals (Laggat & Rupp). I believe that Laggat’s chances of winning a medal are roughly 50% whereas Rupp’s chances are probably slightly lower. This suggests that the US are likely to win a single medal in these events and not two. Of course if the US had many outside chances for medals it shouldn’t meter. The problem that I do not see many realistic chances for additional medals and some events that the US can go below the prediction. So here is my predictions for medal chances of the US vs. TFN.
Women (11 vs. 12 TFN) 100m Carmelita Jeter - 1 (Felix dark horse but not worth 0.5) 200m Allyson Felix, Carmelita Jeter - 1.5 (Jeter can lose the medal to SAFP) 400m Sanya Richards-Ross 1 (though another SRR meltdown is not impossible) 100m h Dawn Harper, Kellie Wells 1.5 (four athletes with qualifying times of 12.47-12.56) 400m h Lashinda Demus 1 (almost lock) 4x100m 0.5 (on a good day ) 4x400m 1 HJ Chaunté Lowe 1 (can Barrett show that she is not a onetime wonder?) PV Jenn Suhr 0.5 (plenty of talents in the field with no backup for the US) LJ Brittney Reese 1 (Deloach almost worth 0.5) SP - 0.5 (Gong vs. CAMARENA-WILLIAMS) Other events - 0.5 (800, 1500, additional LJ & HJ)
men (15 vs. 17 TFN) 100m Tyson Gay 1 (almost 0.5 as Jamaican sweep is not impossible) 200m Wallace Spearmon 0.5 (close between Lemaitre and Spearmon for Bronze) 400m LaShawn Merritt 1 (would go to 1.5 without Merritt’s injury) 5k Bernard Lagat 0.5 10k Galen Rupp 0.5 110m h Aries Merritt, Jason Richardson 2 (reasonable) 400m h Angelo Taylor 1 (any number between 0-2 so 1 sound reasonable) 4x100m 0.5 (need I say more) 4x400m 1 HJ Jesse Williams 1 PV Brad Walker 0.5 (five athletes with 5.9x SB) TJ Christian Taylor, Will Claye 2 SP Reese Hoffa 1.5 (Hoffa consistent so likely to medal, Cantwell & Whiting additional 50%) Dec Ashton Eaton, Trey Hardee 2 Rest of the events 0.5 (long shot in the 800,1,500, 3000sc, LJ)
100m Justin Gatlin bronze* 10k Galen Rupp silver 400m h Michael Tinsley silver* LJ Will Claye silver* SP Reese Hoffa bronze *not on T&F News' prediction list
Track & Field News' still predicts 29 medals: 12 women’s medals... 100m Carmelita Jeter silver 200m Allyson Felix, Carmelita Jeter 100m h Dawn Harper, Kellie Wells 400m Sanya Richards-Ross gold 400m h Lashinda Demus 4x100m 4x400m HJ Chaunté Lowe PV Jenn Suhr gold LJ Brittney Reese 17 men’s medals... 100m Tyson Gay 4th 200m Wallace Spearmon 400m LaShawn Merritt inj 5k Bernard Lagat 10k Galen Rupp silver 110m h Aries Merritt, Jason Richardson 400m h Angelo Taylor 5th 4x100m 4x400m HJ Jesse Williams through to the final PV Brad Walker TJ Christian Taylor, Will Claye SP Reese Hoffa bronze Dec Ashton Eaton, Trey Hardee
Last edited by bushop on Mon Aug 06, 2012 8:55 pm, edited 2 times in total.
WOW what a meet the USA is having but we need to start winning GOLDS!!! Only 2 golds? Our overall medal count is going to to depend on our performance in Track. Damn why are there so many medals in Weightlight, Diving, Badminton?
After Manzano's Silver in the 1500, the USA has 13 medals so far. (Hoffa, Claye, Rupp, Jeter, SRR, Trotter, Gatlin, Suhr, Tinsley, Kynard, Harper, Wells, and Manzano.) There are 23 finals to go. Not all of them have had their heats and semis or Q's yet, so the total number of USA athletes who have a CHANCE to medal is not known. But let me venture a guess.
"Sure" to medal:
Lowe and Barrett in HJ. Lagat in 5K Claye and Taylor in TJ. Eaton and Hardee in Dec. Reese and DeLoach in the LJ. Demus in the 400H. Felix in the 200. Richardson and Merritt in the 110H. Uceny in the 1500. Solomon in the 800. M 4X100R. W 4X100 and 4X400R.
That's 18 "sures"!!
In the "Possibles" are:
Acuff in the HJ. Rupp in the 5K. Montano in the 800. Moline and Brown in the 400H. SRR and Jeter in the 200. Porter in the 110H. Simpson and Rowbury in the 1500. Symmonds in the 800. Spearmon in the 200. Huddle in the 5K. M 4X400R.
That's 14 "possibles".
18 "sures" and 14 "possibles" add to 32. Add 32 to the 13 already won, and the USA can POSSIBLY win 45 medals!!!
medalists: 100m Carmelita Jeter silver 400m Sanya Richards-Ross gold 400m Deedee Trotter bronze* 100m h Kellie Wells silver 100m h Dawn Harper bronze PV Jenn Suhr gold
100m Justin Gatlin bronze* 1500m Leonel Manzano silver* 10k Galen Rupp silver 400m h Michael Tinsley silver* HJ Erik Kynard silver LJ Will Claye silver* SP Reese Hoffa bronze *not on T&F News' prediction list
Track & Field News' still predicts 29 medals: 12 women’s medals... 100m Carmelita Jeter silver 200m Allyson Felix 200m Carmelita Jeter 400m Sanya Richards-Ross gold 100m h Kellie Wells silver 100m h Dawn Harper bronze 400m h Lashinda Demus 4x100m 4x400m HJ Chaunté Lowe PV Jenn Suhr gold LJ Brittney Reese 17 men’s medals... 100m Tyson Gay 4th 200m Wallace Spearmon through 1st round 400m LaShawn Merritt inj 5k Bernard Lagat 10k Galen Rupp silver 110m h Aries Merritt 110m h Jason Richardson 400m h Angelo Taylor 5th 4x100m 4x400m HJ Jesse Williams 9th PV Brad Walker TJ Christian Taylor through to final TJ Will Claye through to final SP Reese Hoffa bronze Dec Ashton Eaton Dec Trey Hardee
aaronk wrote:After Manzano's Silver in the 1500, the USA has 13 medals so far. (Hoffa, Claye, Rupp, Jeter, SRR, Trotter, Gatlin, Suhr, Tinsley, Kynard, Harper, Wells, and Manzano.) There are 23 finals to go. Not all of them have had their heats and semis or Q's yet, so the total number of USA athletes who have a CHANCE to medal is not known. But let me venture a guess.
"Sure" to medal:
Lowe and Barrett in HJ. Lagat in 5K Claye and Taylor in TJ. Eaton and Hardee in Dec. Reese and DeLoach in the LJ. Demus in the 400H. Felix in the 200. Richardson and Merritt in the 110H. Uceny in the 1500. Solomon in the 800. M 4X100R. W 4X100 and 4X400R.
That's 18 "sures"!!
In the "Possibles" are:
Acuff in the HJ. Rupp in the 5K. Montano in the 800. Moline and Brown in the 400H. SRR and Jeter in the 200. Porter in the 110H. Simpson and Rowbury in the 1500. Symmonds in the 800. Spearmon in the 200. Huddle in the 5K. M 4X400R.
That's 14 "possibles".
18 "sures" and 14 "possibles" add to 32. Add 32 to the 13 already won, and the USA can POSSIBLY win 45 medals!!!
I know.
FAT CHANCE!!!!!
In the 4 finals run today, 7 more USA medals!! (Reese, DeLoach, Demus, Felix, Jeter, Merritt, Richardson) Six of those are from my "sure" list, with one from my "possible" list.
That makes 20 total medals so far......with 19 finals left to go!! There remain 12 "sures", and 8 "possibles" from my lists!! Thirty total looks VERY doable!!
medalists (20 medals): 100m Carmelita Jeter silver 200m Allyson Felix gold 200m Carmelita Jeter bronze 400m Sanya Richards-Ross gold 400m Deedee Trotter bronze* 100m h Kellie Wells silver 100m h Dawn Harper bronze 400m h Lashinda Demus silver PV Jenn Suhr gold LJ Brittney Reese gold LJ Janay DeLoach bronze*
100m Justin Gatlin bronze* 1500m Leonel Manzano silver* 10k Galen Rupp silver 110m h Aries Merritt gold 110m h Jason Richardson silver 400m h Michael Tinsley silver* HJ Erik Kynard silver LJ Will Claye silver* SP Reese Hoffa bronze *not on T&F News' prediction list
Track & Field News' still predicts 29 medals: 12 women’s medals... 100m Carmelita Jeter silver 200m Allyson Felix 200m Carmelita Jeter 400m Sanya Richards-Ross gold 100m h Kellie Wells silver 100m h Dawn Harper bronze 400m h Lashinda Demus 4x100m women 4x400m women HJ Chaunté Lowe PV Jenn Suhr gold LJ Brittney Reese 17 men’s medals... 100m Tyson Gay 4th 200m Wallace Spearmon through to the final 400m LaShawn Merritt inj 5k Bernard Lagat 10k Galen Rupp silver 110m h Aries Merritt gold 110m h Jason Richardson silver 400m h Angelo Taylor 5th 4x100m men 4x400m men HJ Jesse Williams 9th PV Brad Walker through to the final TJ Christian Taylor through to final TJ Will Claye through to final SP Reese Hoffa bronze Dec Ashton Eaton kicking ass Dec Trey Hardee kicking everyone elses' ass
medalists (24 medals): 100m Carmelita Jeter silver 200m Allyson Felix gold 200m Carmelita Jeter bronze 400m Sanya Richards-Ross gold 400m Deedee Trotter bronze* 100m h Kellie Wells silver 100m h Dawn Harper bronze 400m h Lashinda Demus silver PV Jenn Suhr gold LJ Brittney Reese gold LJ Janay DeLoach bronze*
100m Justin Gatlin bronze* 1500m Leonel Manzano silver* 10k Galen Rupp silver 110m h Aries Merritt gold 110m h Jason Richardson silver 400m h Michael Tinsley silver* HJ Erik Kynard silver LJ Will Claye silver* SP Reese Hoffa bronze TJ Christian Taylor gold TJ Will Claye silver Dec Ashton Eaton gold Dec Trey Hardee silver *not on T&F News' prediction list
Track & Field News' still predicts 29 medals: 12 women’s medals... 100m Carmelita Jeter silver 200m Allyson Felix 200m Carmelita Jeter 400m Sanya Richards-Ross gold 100m h Kellie Wells silver 100m h Dawn Harper bronze 400m h Lashinda Demus 4x100m women through to the final 4x400m women HJ Chaunté Lowe PV Jenn Suhr gold LJ Brittney Reese 17 men’s medals... 100m Tyson Gay 4th 200m Wallace Spearmon 4th 400m LaShawn Merritt inj 5k Bernard Lagat 10k Galen Rupp silver 110m h Aries Merritt gold 110m h Jason Richardson silver 400m h Angelo Taylor 5th 4x100m men 4x400m men through to the final HJ Jesse Williams 9th PV Brad Walker through to the final TJ Christian Taylor gold TJ Will Claye silver SP Reese Hoffa bronze Dec Ashton Eaton gold Dec Trey Hardee silver
aaronk wrote:After Manzano's Silver in the 1500, the USA has 13 medals so far. (Hoffa, Claye, Rupp, Jeter, SRR, Trotter, Gatlin, Suhr, Tinsley, Kynard, Harper, Wells, and Manzano.) There are 23 finals to go. Not all of them have had their heats and semis or Q's yet, so the total number of USA athletes who have a CHANCE to medal is not known. But let me venture a guess.
"Sure" to medal:
Lowe and Barrett in HJ. Lagat in 5K Claye and Taylor in TJ. Eaton and Hardee in Dec. Reese and DeLoach in the LJ. Demus in the 400H. Felix in the 200. Richardson and Merritt in the 110H. Uceny in the 1500. Solomon in the 800. M 4X100R. W 4X100 and 4X400R.
That's 18 "sures"!!
In the "Possibles" are:
Acuff in the HJ. Rupp in the 5K. Montano in the 800. Moline and Brown in the 400H. SRR and Jeter in the 200. Porter in the 110H. Simpson and Rowbury in the 1500. Symmonds in the 800. Spearmon in the 200. Huddle in the 5K. M 4X400R.
That's 14 "possibles".
18 "sures" and 14 "possibles" add to 32. Add 32 to the 13 already won, and the USA can POSSIBLY win 45 medals!!!
I know.
FAT CHANCE!!!!!
In the 4 finals run today, 7 more USA medals!! (Reese, DeLoach, Demus, Felix, Jeter, Merritt, Richardson) Six of those are from my "sure" list, with one from my "possible" list.
That makes 20 total medals so far......with 19 finals left to go!! There remain 12 "sures", and 8 "possibles" from my lists!! Thirty total looks VERY doable!!
Add 4 more (Taylor, Claye, Eaton, and Hardee), for a total of 24!! And there are 15 more finals to go!!
Of course, the USA does NOT have viable entrants in all of them. Eliminate the 2 walks, the men's JT, the women's HT, and we have 11 events where we have "possible" medalists!!
I think it's safe to predict we'll top the USATF wish list of 30, and the T&FN-predicted 29. How many WILL we get?? The fun is in the finding out!!
OG 2012 Track & Field: August 9: Ho hum, four more medals! [Before we get going, please note (1) we’re using the Track & Field News Olympic previews as our form charts, and (2) we’re using the IAAF’s points-scoring system of 8-7-6-5-4-3-2-1 for eight places.]
26 medals: 100m Carmelita Jeter silver 200m Allyson Felix gold 200m Carmelita Jeter bronze 400m Sanya Richards-Ross gold 400m Deedee Trotter bronze* 100m h Kellie Wells silver 100m h Dawn Harper bronze 400m h Lashinda Demus silver 4x100m women gold PV Jenn Suhr gold LJ Brittney Reese gold LJ Janay DeLoach bronze*
100m Justin Gatlin bronze* 1500m Leonel Manzano silver* 10k Galen Rupp silver 110m h Aries Merritt gold 110m h Jason Richardson silver 400m h Michael Tinsley silver* 4x400m men silver HJ Erik Kynard silver LJ Will Claye silver* SP Reese Hoffa bronze TJ Christian Taylor gold TJ Will Claye silver Dec Ashton Eaton gold Dec Trey Hardee silver
*not on T&F News' list
Track & Field News' predicts 29: 12 women... 100m Carmelita Jeter 200m Allyson Felix 200m Carmelita Jeter 400m Sanya Richards-Ross 100m h Kellie Wells 100m h Dawn Harper 400m h Lashinda Demus 4x100m women 4x400m women through to the final HJ Chaunté Lowe PV Jenn Suhr LJ Brittney Reese 17 men... 100m Tyson Gay 4th 200m Wallace Spearmon 4th 400m LaShawn Merritt inj 5k Bernard Lagat 10k Galen Rupp 110m h Aries Merritt 110m h Jason Richardson 400m h Angelo Taylor 5th 4x100m men through to the final 4x400m men HJ Jesse Williams 9th PV Brad Walker nh TJ Christian Taylor TJ Will Claye SP Reese Hoffa Dec Ashton Eaton Dec Trey Hardee
aaronk wrote:After Manzano's Silver in the 1500, the USA has 13 medals so far. (Hoffa, Claye, Rupp, Jeter, SRR, Trotter, Gatlin, Suhr, Tinsley, Kynard, Harper, Wells, and Manzano.) There are 23 finals to go. Not all of them have had their heats and semis or Q's yet, so the total number of USA athletes who have a CHANCE to medal is not known. But let me venture a guess.
"Sure" to medal:
Lowe and Barrett in HJ. Lagat in 5K Claye and Taylor in TJ. Eaton and Hardee in Dec. Reese and DeLoach in the LJ. Demus in the 400H. Felix in the 200. Richardson and Merritt in the 110H. Uceny in the 1500. Solomon in the 800. M 4X100R. W 4X100 and 4X400R.
That's 18 "sures"!!
In the "Possibles" are:
Acuff in the HJ. Rupp in the 5K. Montano in the 800. Moline and Brown in the 400H. SRR and Jeter in the 200. Porter in the 110H. Simpson and Rowbury in the 1500. Symmonds in the 800. Spearmon in the 200. Huddle in the 5K. M 4X400R.
That's 14 "possibles".
18 "sures" and 14 "possibles" add to 32. Add 32 to the 13 already won, and the USA can POSSIBLY win 45 medals!!!
I know.
FAT CHANCE!!!!!
In the 4 finals run today, 7 more USA medals!! (Reese, DeLoach, Demus, Felix, Jeter, Merritt, Richardson) Six of those are from my "sure" list, with one from my "possible" list.
That makes 20 total medals so far......with 19 finals left to go!! There remain 12 "sures", and 8 "possibles" from my lists!! Thirty total looks VERY doable!!
Add 4 more (Taylor, Claye, Eaton, and Hardee), for a total of 24!! And there are 15 more finals to go!!
Of course, the USA does NOT have viable entrants in all of them. Eliminate the 2 walks, the men's JT, the women's HT, and we have 11 events where we have "possible" medalists!!
I think it's safe to predict we'll top the USATF wish list of 30, and the T&FN-predicted 29. How many WILL we get?? The fun is in the finding out!!
Now up to 26!! In the last 9 events, the USA has SEVEN "legitimate" chances at medals. They are: Lowe and Barrett, Rupp and Lagat, Montano, and the W 4X400R and the M 4X100R. Ryan Hall, if he has one of his ON days....has an outside chance to medal.
If all 7 above medal, we'll finish with 33. I think that "Project 30" just might be a success!!
28 medals: 100m Carmelita Jeter silver 200m Allyson Felix gold 200m Carmelita Jeter bronze 400m Sanya Richards-Ross gold 400m Deedee Trotter bronze* 100m h Kellie Wells silver 100m h Dawn Harper bronze 400m h Lashinda Demus silver 4x100m women gold 4x400m women gold HJ Brigetta Barrett silver PV Jenn Suhr gold LJ Brittney Reese gold LJ Janay DeLoach bronze*
100m Justin Gatlin bronze* 1500m Leonel Manzano silver* 10k Galen Rupp silver 110m h Aries Merritt gold 110m h Jason Richardson silver 400m h Michael Tinsley silver* 4x400m men silver HJ Erik Kynard silver LJ Will Claye silver* SP Reese Hoffa bronze TJ Christian Taylor gold TJ Will Claye silver Dec Ashton Eaton gold Dec Trey Hardee silver
*not on T&F News' list
Track & Field News' picks 29: 100m Carmelita Jeter 200m Allyson Felix 200m Carmelita Jeter 400m Sanya Richards-Ross 100m h Kellie Wells 100m h Dawn Harper 400m h Lashinda Demus 4x100m women 4x400m women HJ Chaunté Lowe PV Jenn Suhr LJ Brittney Reese
100m Tyson Gay 4th 200m Wallace Spearmon 4th 400m LaShawn Merritt inj 5k Bernard Lagat 4th 10k Galen Rupp 110m h Aries Merritt 110m h Jason Richardson 400m h Angelo Taylor 5th 4x100m men through to the final 4x400m men HJ Jesse Williams 9th PV Brad Walker nh TJ Christian Taylor TJ Will Claye SP Reese Hoffa Dec Ashton Eaton Dec Trey Hardee
Last edited by bushop on Sat Aug 11, 2012 11:51 am, edited 1 time in total.
29 100m Carmelita Jeter silver 200m Allyson Felix gold 200m Carmelita Jeter bronze 400m Sanya Richards-Ross gold 400m Deedee Trotter bronze* 100m h Kellie Wells silver 100m h Dawn Harper bronze 400m h Lashinda Demus silver 4x100m women gold 4x400m women gold HJ Brigetta Barrett silver PV Jenn Suhr gold LJ Brittney Reese gold LJ Janay DeLoach bronze*
100m Justin Gatlin bronze* 1500m Leonel Manzano silver* 10k Galen Rupp silver 110m h Aries Merritt gold 110m h Jason Richardson silver 400m h Michael Tinsley silver* 4x100m men silver 4x400m men silver HJ Erik Kynard silver LJ Will Claye silver* SP Reese Hoffa bronze TJ Christian Taylor gold TJ Will Claye silver Dec Ashton Eaton gold Dec Trey Hardee silver *not on T&F News'' list
T&F News' picks 29: 100m Carmelita Jeter 200m Allyson Felix 200m Carmelita Jeter 400m Sanya Richards-Ross 100h Kellie Wells 100h Dawn Harper 400h Lashinda Demus 4x100m women 4x400m women HJ Chaunté Lowe PV Jenn Suhr LJ Brittney Reese
100m Tyson Gay 4th 200m Wallace Spearmon 4th 400m LaShawn Merritt inj 5k Bernard Lagat 4th 10k Galen Rupp 110h Aries Merritt 110h Jason Richardson 400h Angelo Taylor 5th 4x100m men 4x400m men HJ Jesse Williams 9th PV Brad Walker nh TJ Christian Taylor TJ Will Claye SP Reese Hoffa Dec Ashton Eaton Dec Trey Hardee
Only 29! I know, it's probably one of our best-ever showings in the OG, but we coulda shoulda woulda done even better!!
Just today alone, we missed one with Lowe, another with Montano (though she was on the edge, not quite inside, the envelope!!), and 1, 2, or even 3 with the 5K group!!
But the relay guys and gals.....in ALL FOUR relays......kept the stick in their hands......and came away with FOUR medals!!!
Will 29 be considered a "failure" by USATF??
BTW, tomorrow, Ryan Hall stands a VERY outside chance to pick up one more.....a Bronze!! I doubt he will, but.....!!
aaronk wrote:Only 29! I know, it's probably one of our best-ever showings in the OG, but we coulda shoulda woulda done even better!!
Just today alone, we missed one with Lowe, another with Montano (though she was on the edge, not quite inside, the envelope!!), and 1, 2, or even 3 with the 5K group!!
Not sure two medals in the women's HJ is any reasonable expectation and I don't at all agree with Montano. Possible Lagat could have gotten a medal in the 5000m
aaronk wrote:Only 29! I know, it's probably one of our best-ever showings in the OG, but we coulda shoulda woulda done even better!!
Just today alone, we missed one with Lowe, another with Montano (though she was on the edge, not quite inside, the envelope!!), and 1, 2, or even 3 with the 5K group!!
Not sure two medals in the women's HJ is any reasonable expectation and I don't at all agree with Montano. Possible Lagat could have gotten a medal in the 5000m
Logan 'validated' by US success August 10, 2012 "When I challenged the federation to perform up to its potential, I knew it had an Olympics like this in it. But a lot of people, including my own board members, thought I was arrogant and ill-informed."
Team USA takes 1 gold, 2 silver as medals surge to 29 8/11/2012 "With one road event - the men’s marathon - to be contested on Sunday, Team USA’s medal tally stands at 29 medals: nine gold, 13 silver and seven bronze. The women have accounted for 14 of those medals (6 gold, 4 silver, 4 bronze), just two behind the all-time record of 16 won at the boycotted 1984 Games."
17 women... 100m Carmelita Jeter 200m Carmelita Jeter 200m Allyson Felix 400m Sanya Richards-Ross 400m Allyson Felix 400m Deedee Trotter 1500m Jenny Simpson 100m h Kellie Wells 100m h Dawn Harper 400m h Lashinda Demus 4x100m women 4x400m women HJ Brigetta Barrett PV Jenn Suhr LJ Brittney Reese LJ Janay DeLoach SP Jillian Camarena-Williams
19 men... 100m Walter Dix 100m Justin Gatlin 400m LaShawn Merritt 1500m Leonel Manzano 10k Galen Rupp 110m h Jason Richardson 110m h Aries Merritt 400m h Michael Tinsley 4x400m USA 4x100m USA HJ Erik Kynard HJ Jesse Williams LJ Dwight Phillips LJ Will Claye SP Reese Hoffa TJ Christian Taylor TJ Will Claye Deca Trey Hardee Deca Ashton Eaton
'30 Medals Is Zero Improvement Over 20 Years' "Clearly a strategic development program aimed at improving the status of these traditionally weak events is needed. Such a program would likely result in a total medal count around 40."
Look, whatever the goal might have been, or whatever the seers were predicting, the USA did damn well in London!! But now, in retrospect, using hindsight (FUCK hindsight!!!!), it's easy for me to see where the USA did far WORSE than we coulda woulda shoulda have done!!! (SCREW shoulda woulda coulda!!!!) Anyway, assuming we retain ALL 29 of our medalists next year (Goooddddd LUCK!!!!), I see an ADDITIONAL 21 (that's right, 21!!!) we CAN add to those 29 in Moscow. And this list is JUST from the London qualifiers, the ones who competed in London, but failed to medal, or even qualify for the finals.
Men
Gay in the 100 Spearmon in the 200 ???? in the 400 (The USA's GOTTA have SOMEBODY in the 400 next year!!!) Lagat AND Rupp in the 5K Jager in the SC Hall in the Mar Clement AND Taylor in the 400H Williams in the HJ Walker in the PV Cantwell in the SP
Women
McCorory in the 400 Montano in the 800 Uceny and Simpson in the 1500 Flanagan and Goucher in the Mar Lowe in the HJ JCW in the SP SBT in the DT Fountain in the Hept
And then there's all the guys and gals who were NOT on this year's Olympic team!! Just off the top of my head, here's a few possibilities.
Men
Charles Jock in the 800 Robby Andrews in the 1500 Chris Solinski and Chris Derrick in the 10K David Oliver in the 110H Colin McCullough in the HT Sam Crouser in the JT
Women
Jeneba Tarmoh in the 200 (Don't laugh!!) Mary Cain (Okay, this is my "Insanity Factory" at work!!) in the 1500 Natosha Rogers in the 10K Shelbi Vaughan in the DT
aaronk wrote:Anyway, assuming we retain ALL 29 of our medalists next year (Goooddddd LUCK!!!!), I see an ADDITIONAL 21 (that's right, 21!!!) we CAN add to those 29 in Moscow. And this list is JUST from the London qualifiers, the ones who competed in London, but failed to medal, or even qualify for the finals.
Men
Gay in the 100 Spearmon in the 200 ???? in the 400 (The USA's GOTTA have SOMEBODY in the 400 next year!!!) Lagat AND Rupp in the 5K Jager in the SC Hall in the Mar Clement AND Taylor in the 400H Williams in the HJ Walker in the PV Cantwell in the SP
Women
McCorory in the 400 Montano in the 800 Uceny and Simpson in the 1500 Flanagan and Goucher in the Mar Lowe in the HJ JCW in the SP SBT in the DT Fountain in the Hept
And then there's all the guys and gals who were NOT on this year's Olympic team!! Just off the top of my head, here's a few possibilities.
Men
Charles Jock in the 800 Robby Andrews in the 1500 Chris Solinski and Chris Derrick in the 10K David Oliver in the 110H Colin McCullough in the HT Sam Crouser in the JT
Women
Jeneba Tarmoh in the 200 (Don't laugh!!) Mary Cain (Okay, this is my "Insanity Factory" at work!!) in the 1500 Natosha Rogers in the 10K Shelbi Vaughan in the DT
Okay, maybe we should be satisfied with 29!!
Your approach is wrong. What you should ask yourself is not which additional American athletes have a chance to medal but whether the US have a chance to gain more medal in each event, For example, you mention Gay in the 100. While I agree that a healthy Gay has a chance to medal (maybe even silver) With Bolt and Blake there is no chance that the US will win two medals. Similarly, McCorory may medal in the 400, but I doubt very much that the US can clean sweep the 400 in Moscow.
bushop wrote:'30 Medals Is Zero Improvement Over 20 Years' "Clearly a strategic development program aimed at improving the status of these traditionally weak events is needed. Such a program would likely result in a total medal count around 40."
There are also more countries competing for medals. USATF definitely needs to do something about the field events, but I don't know what they can do.
bushop wrote:'30 Medals Is Zero Improvement Over 20 Years' "Clearly a strategic development program aimed at improving the status of these traditionally weak events is needed. Such a program would likely result in a total medal count around 40."
There are also more countries competing for medals. USATF definitely needs to do something about the field events, but I don't know what they can do.
Here's something USATF could do:
Persuade the High School Federation (or whatever it's called) have their athletes move from the junior weights (12 lb shots, etc) and lower hurdles (39" instead of 42") to the international weights and heights for their Junior and Senior years.
Stick with the lesser weights and heights while Frosh and Sophs, then move them EXCLUSIVELY to the international weights and heights the rest of the way!!
That way, there won't be that transition period in their first year of college where they're getting used to the heavier weight implements, etc.
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