¶2012 OG: wHept—Jessica Ennis (GB) 6955 WL (5, x W)

[gh]

T&FN formchart

1. Jessica Ennis (Great Britain)
2. Tatyana Chernova (Russia)
3. Nataliya Dobrynska (Ukraine)
4. Kristina Savitskaya (Russia)
5. Jessica Zelinka (Canada)
6. Hyleas Fountain (US)
7. Austra Skujyté (Lithuania)
8. Antoinette Nana Djimou (France)
9. Lyudmila Yosypenko (Ukraine)
10. Jennifer Oeser (Germany)

[olorin]

Below is a list of the seven events in the Heptathlon and a short guide to the score in each event.

100h - Every 0.1 is worth ~15 points, 13.85 equal 1,000 points. World Best in Heptathlon (WBH): Barber 12.62.
HJ - Every 3cm worth ~38 points, 1.82 equal 1,000 points. WBH: Hellebaut 1.97
SP - Every 50cm worth ~34 points, 17.07 equal 1000 points. WBH: Dobrynska* 17.29
200 - Every 0.1 worth ~10 points, 23.80 equal 1000 points. WBH: JJK 22.30
LJ - Every 10 cm worth ~32 points, 6.48 equal 1000 points. WBH: JJK 7.27 (highest score in a single event 1264 points).
JT - Every 1m worth ~19.5 points, 57.18 equal 1000 points. WBH Simpson* 56.36
800 - every second worth 14.5 points, 2:07.63 equal 1000 points. WBH DeBois 2:01.84
* Athlete that compete in the London Olympic

[DecFan]

What a competition coming up on Friday and Saturday!

Here are event by event totals using PRs of the top 6 in the TaFNews formchart, and then using my own projections. This will help you to see after each event where the competitors are relative to where they need to be to perform well.

Ranks after each event, using PRs:

After 100h
Zelinka 1173
Fountain 1158
Ennis 1156
Chernova 1077
Dobrynska 1060
Savitskaya 1047

After HJ
Ennis 2327
Fountain 2264
Chernova 2144
Zelinka 2139
Savitskaya 2127
Dobrynska 2114

After SP
Ennis 3166
Dobrynska 3129
Fountain 3045
Savitskaya 3006
Zelinka 2998
Chernova 2949

After 200
Ennis 4257
Fountain 4103
Dobrynska 4088
Zelinka 4032
Chernova 3979
Savitskaya 3929

After LJ
Ennis 5267
Fountain 5238
Dobrynska 5137
Chernova 5091
Savitskaya 4985
Zelinka 4940

After JT
Ennis 6071
Fountain 6062
Chernova 6038
Dobrynska 5983
Savitskaya 5784
Zelinka 5689

Complete
Ennis 7068
Chernova 7054
Fountain 6950
Dobrynska 6928
Zelinka 6684
Savitskaya 6681

Here are their PRs:
Fountain 12.78 1.90 13.81 23.21 6.89 48.15 2:15.32
Ennis 12.79 1.95 14.67 22.88 6.51 47.11 2:07.81
Chernova 13.32 1.87 14.17 23.49 6.82 54.49 2:06.5
Dobrynska 13.43 1.86 17.29 24.23 6.63 49.25 2:11.34
Savitskaya 13.52 1.88 15.27 24.61 6.65 46.83 2:14.73
Zelinka 12.68 1.79 14.97 23.45 6.19 44.24 2:07.95


The same with my projections in the next post.

[DecFan]

Ranks after each event, using my projections. Note that these are not predictions, but what I think each athlete could achieve with good marks, consistent with recent performances, in every event:

After 100h
Zelinka 1155
Ennis 1150
Fountain 1140
Chernova 1074
Dobrynska 1050
Savitskaya 1043

After HJ
Ennis 2269
Fountain 2207
Savitskaya 2097
Chernova 2090
Zelinka 2083
Dobrynska 2066

After SP
Ennis 3090
Dobrynska 2994
Fountain 2968
Savitskaya 2941
Zelinka 2931
Chernova 2884

After 200
Ennis 4169
Fountain 3978
Zelinka 3955
Dobrynska 3909
Chernova 3908
Savitskaya 3846

After LJ
Ennis 5144
Fountain 5050
Chernova 4980
Dobrynska 4900
Savitskaya 4869
Zelinka 4820

After JT
Ennis 5936
Fountain 5794
Chernova 5898
Dobrynska 5721
Savitskaya 5632
Zelinka 5556

And final scores with these projections: 3 exceptionally close battles:
Ennis 6930
Chernova 6907
Fountain 6666
Dobrynska 6664
Zelinka 6550
Savitskaya 6525

And here are the projections:
Fountain 12.90 1.87 13.50 23.70 6.70 44.00 2:16.5
Ennis 12.83 1.91 14.40 23.00 6.40 46.50 2:08
Chernova 13.34 1.83 14.00 23.55 6.70 53.00 2:07
Dobrynska 13.50 1.83 16.00 24.70 6.45 48.00 2:11.5
Savitskaya 13.55 1.86 14.75 24.80 6.55 45.00 2:15
Zelinka 12.80 1.76 14.80 23.55 6.05 43.60 2:08

[olorin]

What a competition coming up on Friday and Saturday!

Here are event by event totals using PRs of the top 6 in the TaFNews formchart, and then using my own projections. This will help you to see after each event where the competitors are relative to where they need to be to perform well.


The same with my projections in the next post.

DecFan
Can you please add times/marks to your post. This will give us a better guide to their performance after each event.

[Gabriella]

Some comments:

100mh - because of her poor SB in Gotzis, Dobrynska finds herself in one of the slowest heats. But, as with Beijing, this should benefit her and she should be able to run hard and win her heat comfortably. It would be very surprising if she didnt run much faster than her listed SB here. Schwarzkopf and Oeser also benefit here; in Daegu Lilli found herself in the fastest heat, while Chernova, who had the same SB, was in the slightly slower heat. I think both Germans will benefit from this. In the main heat it's a shame Zelinka is over in lane 1, however Ennis and Fountain should have a great battle over in lanes 7 and 8.

200m - Again, Dobrynska is in one of the slowest heats, but expect her to knock at least 0.5 off her SB if she's in form. Fountain would usually be in the fastest heat, but is in the second fastest. She has lane 8. In the fastest heat, Schippers and Chernova have the two inside lanes, so will be slightly disadvantaged here with their height. Ennis has a good outer lane and should win this despite Schippers being the better runner, purely because of the lane.

[Wilmar]

I am truly, truly hoping. www.ergorej.net will bring their 'forecasting' service online, as it is by far the best way of keeping track of how all athletes are doing relative to their own performance levels, especially on the first days of combined events (it compares ongong performances with a 'reference score' - typically the sb or pb.
Have inquired, will keep you posted.

Until that, FYI, my countryman Frank Koopmans posted an excell sheet for the women's heptathlon. Kind of hoping/assuming he will keep that up to date otherwise. See and enjoy here: http://combinedevents.webs.com/Forecast ... 202012.xls.

[tgs3]

Any news about Jennifer Oeser? If relatively healthy, I'd give her and Dobrynska (who also has question marks) about even chances for the bronze.

As much as I hope Fountain does as well as DecFan projects, I expect Djimou and Yosypenko to be ahead of her and possibly Zelinka. I'm also skeptical of Savitskaya, but I guess we'll see soon if she's for real.

[aaronk]

Confucious say:

He who live by Formchart......dumb ass!!


Apply to ALL the OG threads!!

[j-a-m]

Any news about Jennifer Oeser? If relatively healthy,

Those injuries still hampered her preparation; so even if she's healthy now, bronze is gonna be difficult.

[gh]

Statman of renown Mark Butler of the BBC did calculations: Chernova PRs 7079, Ennis PRs 7076. That's pretty amazing. (and then 100-odd back to Fountain)

[DecFan]

Note a couple of points:

1) Ennis needs to be at least 230 points ahead of Chernova at the end of Day 1. If she's only ahead of her by 150, she's quite unlikely to win gold.

2) What in the world can we expect from Savitskaya? Best heptathlon as of 2011, 5989; PRs as of the end of 2011 summed only to 6084. Then in one heptathlon she sets personal bests in all seven events and breaks her PR by almost 700 points! Now, there were a few clues that she was improving - indoors in Feb she had improved her HJ by 8cm over her previous indoor/outdoor PR. My guess is that she is the real deal, but that in her first appearance in the OG she'll have a meet like Eaton in Daegu: good, but not as outstanding as her home meet performance. But who knows? Maybe she wins gold; maybe she scores only 6000.

[preston]

Decfan and Olorin. Thank you. You guys make following the multi's more exciting and interesting by educating the rest of us who may not understand the intricacies of the PB's, SB's and likely scenarios - in addition to how many points you get for the marks (Huge assist, Olorin).

[DecFan]

Statman of renown Mark Butler of the BBC did calculations: Chernova PRs 7079, Ennis PRs 7076. That's pretty amazing. (and then 100-odd back to Fountain)

The difference between Butler's 7076 for Ennis and my 7068 is that he uses her indoor SP PR of 14.79 and I'm using her outdoor SP PR of 14.67. Take your pick.

I think the number gh cites from Butler for Chernova's PR is wrong. Chernova's outdoor PRs sum to 7062. She, like Ennis, has an indoor SP PR superior to her outdoor PR, 14.54 to 14.17. But if you include that 14.54, her PRs sum to 7087, not 7079.

In any case: I can't wait for this competition to start!

[Gabriella]

Any news about Jennifer Oeser? If relatively healthy, I'd give her and Dobrynska (who also has question marks) about even chances for the bronze.

According to the DLv today, Oeser has said her aim is to "earn as many points as possible. My preparations for London have been sub-optimal (because of a persistent achilles injury)". Oeser's coach, Karl-Heinz Due said he hasnn't ruled out a medal, that she must take each discipline and focus on it as it comes; however he aknowledges the gold and silver are out of the question but still thinks she can battle for bronze.

Schwarzkopf is more optimistic and simply said "I know I am in good shape and are fit. I dont know what the outcome will be but I'm giving it everything".

It doesnt exactly reveal much, other than Lilli sounds a bit more positive. But it's clear Oeser's preparation has hindered her, and it must surely affect her confidence.

[nevetsllim]

Statman of renown Mark Butler of the BBC did calculations: Chernova PRs 7079, Ennis PRs 7076. That's pretty amazing. (and then 100-odd back to Fountain)

The difference between Butler's 7076 for Ennis and my 7068 is that he uses her indoor SP PR of 14.79 and I'm using her outdoor SP PR of 14.67. Take your pick.

I think the number gh cites from Butler for Chernova's PR is wrong. Chernova's outdoor PRs sum to 7062. She, like Ennis, has an indoor SP PR superior to her outdoor PR, 14.54 to 14.17. But if you include that 14.54, her PRs sum to 7087, not 7079.

In any case: I can't wait for this competition to start!

I actually got 7079 for Chernova's total PB (including indoor marks).

[DecFan]

I actually got 7079 for Chernova's total PB (including indoor marks).

Whoa - that made me check and I found an error in the calculations in the spreadsheet I use, making the points in the 800 slightly off when I didn't input the time to hundredths. Thanks to you and gh (and Mark Butler!) - glad to catch it now.

I've made the small changes this makes in the projections above. As for the sum of PRs: Including indoor SP marks, indeed the totals are Chernova 7079 Ennis 7076. Only considering outdoor marks: Chernova 7054 Ennis 7068.

[Wilmar]

Happy to report Matti Vesterinen has graciously opened up the http://ergorej.net/london2012/ Combined Events Forecasting Service.

It compares current performances in London with a 'reference score' for each athlete - typically the best Heptathlon the athlete has scored in the last two years.

This way, you can see how a 23.50 time in the 200 meters can be
- a HUGE disappointment (like for GBR Ennis and NED Schippers who run 22.90)
- an Enormous jump ahead (Savitskaya, 24.61 in her best heptathlon)
- exactly what you expect (Chernova, that same time in her 6880 score).

In my experience, this exercise gives a good indication of who is in the running for medals - much more than saying 'such and such is 2nd after 3 events' (which oftens means about nothing until 1-2 events from the end).

I hope to help Matti keeping the performances up to date. Check it out! (remaining athletes will be enterered in a few hours).

Best, Wilmar

[olorin]

s:
Fountain 12.90 1.87 13.50 23.70 6.70 44.00 2:16.5
Ennis 12.83 1.91 14.40 23.00 6.40 46.50 2:08
Chernova 13.34 1.83 14.00 23.55 6.70 53.00 2:07
Dobrynska 13.50 1.83 16.00 24.70 6.45 48.00 2:11.5
Savitskaya 13.55 1.86 14.75 24.80 6.55 45.00 2:15
Zelinka 12.80 1.76 14.80 23.55 6.05 43.60 2:08

I agree with most of these predictions except two things:
1. The bar in the HJ is raised by 3cm so the gap between Chernova and Ennis could be either 6 or 9 cm. This difference can decide the competition as each hight is woth a massive 38 points. For comparison this difference is equivalent to ~2 meters in JT.
2. I think that the difference between Chernova and Ennis is the JT is likely to be a meter higher than your predictions. So this will give another ~20 points to Chernova making the predictied score even closer.

[bambam]

Decfan and Olorin. Thank you. You guys make following the multi's more exciting and interesting by educating the rest of us who may not understand the intricacies of the PB's, SB's and likely scenarios - in addition to how many points you get for the marks (Huge assist, Olorin).

Second that

[nianchengyu]

who could give me a broadcastof hep?thanks a lot.

[j-a-m]

One runner, I believe it's Maechtig, seems to start with her hands several inches away from the starting line, thereby increasing the distance between start and first hurdle. Don't remember having seen that before.

[j-a-m]

Dobrynska 13.57

[Gabriella]

One runner, I believe it's Maechtig, seems to start with her hands several inches away from the starting line, thereby increasing the distance between start and first hurdle. Don't remember having seen that before.

It's because she's so tall. Drechsler did this as well. She has a long stride, especailly from her sprinting background, to to get her strides in she needs to start further behind the line.

[DecFan]

Dobrynska 13.57

0.14 off her PR, 0.07 off my projection (10 pts).

[Gabriella]

Some comments:

100mh - because of her poor SB in Gotzis, Dobrynska finds herself in one of the slowest heats. But, as with Beijing, this should benefit her and she should be able to run hard and win her heat comfortably. It would be very surprising if she didnt run much faster than her listed SB here. .

A 13.5 for Dobrynska is a good start. She looks a little heavy, as always, but powerful. However, she lost rythym at the end.

[Powell]

Great start for Tymińska with that 13.22, the second fastest run of her career. Perhaps she's in better form than I expected.

[Gabriella]

Melnychenko looked to have a FS in that heat!
Good times by all, SB for Hanna and for Oeser. +2.0m wind...

[DecFan]

Oeser 13.42 - season best by .12, but as we expected well off her PR of 13.14.

[DecFan]

Great start for Tymińska with that 13.22, the second fastest run of her career. Perhaps she's in better form than I expected.

SB had been 13.55 . . . maybe she's being lying low . . .

[Gabriella]

Great run from Lilli! PB I said she was in form

If she gets 1.83, 14.50 and 24.7 in the next events, she will be on for a score of over 6600

[j-a-m]

Savitskaya 13.37

[j-a-m]

Schippers stumbles over hurdle; may have cost her two tenths of a second.

[DecFan]

Savitskaya 13.37

My! Another PR, this time by 0.15! That puts her 26 points up on my projections, 22 points up on her PR pace.

[Powell]

Great start for Tymińska with that 13.22, the second fastest run of her career. Perhaps she's in better form than I expected.

SB had been 13.55 . . . maybe she's being lying low . . .

She was out injured for most of the season. Only came back at the last moment, the nat'l fed put her on the team based on results in individual events in the last few weeks.
I wasn't really expecting her to approach last year's form, but based on this result, who knows?