¶2012 OG: mDec–Ashton Eaton 8869, Trey Hardee 8671

[dj]

T&FN formchart

1. Ashton Eaton (USA)
2. Trey Hardee (USA)
3. Eelco Sintnicolaas (Holland)
4. Leonel Suárez (Cuba)
5. Hans van Alphen (Belgium)
6. Pascal Behrenbruch (Germany)
7. Kevin Mayer (France)
8. Rico Freimuth (Germany)
9. Sergey Sviridov (Russia)
10. Oleksiy Kasyanov (Ukraine)

[gh]

Everybody's loving to talk WR; my take is that as an Olympic rookie he'll be more looking for gold (which should be very hard to lose) than for another WR and be in "safety mode" here and there. When you've already got the WR and years and years ahead of you, why do anything but the path that most guarantees the top of the podium?

[Weights&Shoes]

^ Agreed, moments like this don't come often.

[j-a-m]

When you've already got the WR and years and years ahead of you, why do anything but the path that most guarantees the top of the podium?

Agreed, would be the right strategy.

[EPelle]

Olympic Record:
8893 Roman Šebrle, CZE, Athens 2004

2008 Results:
G-Bryan Clay USA 8791; S-Andrey Kravchenko BLR 8551; B-Leonel Suárez CUB 8527
================================================================================

[Marlow]

Everybody's loving to talk WR; my take is that as an Olympic rookie he'll be more looking for gold (which should be very hard to lose) than for another WR and be in "safety mode" here and there.

I would submit that it's the 'safety mode' mentality that might make a WR MORE possible. There is such a thing as trying TOO hard (which causes fouls, hitting hurdles, blowing through a pole, rushing the throw, going out too fast in the 400 or 1500, etc.). Being relaxed and in control during a Decathlon is a very good thing.

[DecFan]

After the first two events, Eaton will be at least 65 points down on his WR pace.

[skyin' brian]

After the first two events, Eaton will be at least 65 points down on his WR pace.

Yeah, but he will likely make up some points in the 400

[tgs3]

After the first two events, Eaton will be at least 65 points down on his WR pace.

Yeah, but he will likely make up some points in the 400

In cold and rainy conditions, that seems unlikely. Even a 400 PR (in a decathlon) would only get him a little over 20 points.

[Dave]

After the first two events, Eaton will be at least 65 points down on his WR pace.

Yeah, but he will likely make up some points in the 400

In cold and rainy conditions, that seems unlikely. Even a 400 PR (in a decathlon) would only get him a little over 20 points.

How much colder and rainier is London than Eugene?

[norunner]

After the first two events, Eaton will be at least 65 points down on his WR pace.

Yeah, but he will likely make up some points in the 400

In cold and rainy conditions, that seems unlikely. Even a 400 PR (in a decathlon) would only get him a little over 20 points.

How much colder and rainier is London than Eugene?

Cold and rainy London is a myth. I lived there for three years and those three summers were so hot and dry they had to start limiting water usage in july and august.

[Grasshopper]

Consider the differences between the Decathlon schedule in Eugene vs London and you can see that they are very different events. While some might look at the longer intervals between some events in London and think that's an advantage as it gives more rest, most decathletes that I know will tell you that the extra time does more to make the body cold and allow the pain to set-in than it does to provide recovery. Eaton won't have the benefit of home-cooking or his own comfy bed between the 2 days that he had in Eugene.

Eugene:
Day #1
1:00pm - 100m
1:50pm - Long Jump
3:05pm - Shot Put
4:30pm - High Jump
6:30pm - 400m
- Total length of Day #1 = ~5.5 hours

Day #2 (Rest from end of Day #1 = ~15 hours)
9:30am - 110m Hurdles
10:20am - Discus Throw
12:30pm - Pole Vault
3:00pm - Javelin Throw
5:30pm - 1,500m
- Total length of Day #2 = ~8.0 hours
- Total length of Decathlon = ~28.5 hours

London:
Day #1
10:10am - 100 Metres
11:10am - Long Jump
12:50pm - Shot Put
6:00pm - High Jump
9:30pm - 400 Metres
- Total length of Day #1 = ~11.5 hours

Day #2 (Rest from end of Day #1 = ~11.5 hours)
9:00am - 110 Metres Hurdles
9:55am - Discus Throw
12:55pm - Pole Vault
6:30pm - Javelin Throw
9:20pm - 1500 Metres
- Total length of Day #2= ~12.5 hours
- Total length of Decathlon = ~35.5 hours

[tgs3]

How much colder and rainier is London than Eugene?

Cold and rainy London is a myth. I lived there for three years and those three summers were so hot and dry they had to start limiting water usage in july and august.

The myth appears to be coming true :

http://www.weather.com/weather/5-day/Al ... L0013:1:UK

Maybe it doesn't rain all that much most years, but it sure looks likely for this weekend, which is all that matters for the purposes of this conversation.

I'm sure Eaton will perform well in the weather like he did in Eugene, I just don't think people should be expecting big improvements on any of his scores from Eugene. I'm not saying it can't happen, but it doesn't seem like that's what should be expected to happen, especially his 400m time, which was fairly good in Eugene.

[norunner]

http://www.weather.com/weather/5-day/Al ... L0013:1:UK

Maybe it doesn't rain all that much most years, but it sure looks likely for this weekend, which is all that matters for the purposes of this conversation.

How does the weather this weekend matter for the decathlon? Dec starts on the 8th.

[Dave]

He doesn't need to PR in anything to improve his world record.

10.25,8.10,14.5.2.08,46.7 13.6, 46, 5.20, 60, 4:20 would get him to 9047. All of those marks are comfortably under his best.

We are pretty likely to know what is possible after the first couple events.

[tgs3]

http://www.weather.com/weather/5-day/Al ... L0013:1:UK

Maybe it doesn't rain all that much most years, but it sure looks likely for this weekend, which is all that matters for the purposes of this conversation.

How does the weather this weekend matter for the decathlon? Dec starts on the 8th.

Doh! I was mixing up the start of the decathlon with the heptathlon. The forecast for the 8th and 9th is for decent weather, so let's hope it stays that way.

[Jackaloupe]

" his 400m time, which was fairly good in Eugene."

No it wasn't, it was a full second behind his 45.68 just the week before at the Harry Jerome Classic, which followed a 6'11" HJ--a brilliant "training" competition. The weather by then in Eugene was pretty bad, cool w/ steady rain. And Eaton went out so relaxed and slow (for him), around 23 seconds for the firsit 200m (no "official" split available here, but I was watching it closely). I'll be surprised if he's over 46.0 in London.

And as for that "65 point" drop, don't count on it, even if the weather had not yet turned unfavorable at that point. Both the SP and HJ, both somewhat affected by weather in Eugene, could both improve, esp. in view of Eaton's continual improvement in Weights.

[aaronk]

Pretty much everyone agrees Eaton will win Gold, and most likely go over 9000 again.
But I see no one has guessed how far back the Silver medalist will be.
Less than 100 points??
200??
Maybe further back??

Here's the point spread for Eaton at the Trials, after each event.
Note that, except for after the 100 (Brian Clay), the second place guy was always Trey Hardee.

100........57 points back
LJ.........242
SP.........149
HJ.........205
400.......322
110H.....324
DT........195
PV........289
JT........317
1500.....656 (!!!)

Note that Ashton gained 339 points over Hardee with his 1500!!!

[TimRoy]

Hardee didn't 'race' the 1500m at the trials. By that point, his place was set, so he jogged it along with Clay.

[DecFan]

To try to put the WR talk in perspective:

Sebrle set the WR in 2001 at age 26. For the next 6 years, he was clearly capable of breaking that WR. Prior to every competition, someone could have calculated WR scores for him, without assuming PRs in any event. During that time he was amazingly successful: He started 25 decathlons, finished 24, won 17 and placed 2nd in another 4, won the OG. But he never broke 8900 - let alone 9000 - again (his best score during that time: The OR 8893 that Eaton will chase).

Furthermore, recall what happened at the Edmonton World Championships a few months after Sebrle set the WR: He placed 10th, scoring more than 900 points below his WR (he had a disastrous hurdles - rather like Clay's at the OTs).

The decathlon is a beast; a million things can go wrong.

The WR in Eugene was magical. Savor it. But don't expect a repeat every time Eaton competes.

If he's on track after seven events, then we can start talking WR . . .

[Marlow]

After the first two events, Eaton will be at least 65 points down on his WR pace.

You knew better than I about this stuff, but here's my take on AE vis-a-vis his Eugene self

Eugene vs. London
10.21/8.23 - obviously he can't match that but 10.3x and 8.10 is all he needs
14.20 - he can improve a little on that - 14.50 ?
2.05 - that's all he needs
46.70 0 this is where he can really gain ground (pun?) - 46.0
13.70 - c'mon now; he's good for 13.50
42.81 - can go 47!
5.30 - if he's lucky, 5.20 is in the cards
58.87 - 60 is doable
4:14.48 - can't go to the well again - 4:18.

OK, what's that?

[DecFan]

Marlow:
I think I hear an echo: "If he's on track after seven events, then we can start talking WR . . ."

[Marlow]

Marlow:
I think I hear an echo: "If he's on track after seven events, then we can start talking WR . . ."

Boo! That's MLB no-hitter superstition. He's on WR pace right NOW!

[Dave]

Marlow:
I think I hear an echo: "If he's on track after seven events, then we can start talking WR . . ."

Boo! That's MLB no-hitter superstition. He's on WR pace right NOW!

If we see a 10.25 100 and 8.10+LJ, I think he will have a real shot.

[Jseven1]

In Germany in the last two weeks he improved his throws over WR performance by 154 points. He can fall off some in 100/LJ and easily make it up in 400, HJ and HH. Then he's still got those 154 points to play with. Big question -- can he repeat 5:30 in PV? With no blowups I predict a new WR.

[user4]

In Germany in the last two weeks he improved his throws over WR performance by 154 points. He can fall off some in 100/LJ and easily make it up in 400, HJ and HH. Then he's still got those 154 points to play with. Big question -- can he repeat 5:30 in PV? With no blowups I predict a new WR.

I agree, new WR or darn close to it, certainly an OR. This kid is special.

[olorin]

To try to put the WR talk in perspective:

The decathlon is a beast; a million things can go wrong.

Eaton chances for WR:
100m (every 0.1 24 points) - his time in Eugene (10.21) was only 0.02 from his PB. The track is fast the wind is very unpredictable but Eaton will struggle to equal his performance. A 10.3x is typical Eaton score which will see him 30 points behind WR pace.

LJ - (every 10cm 25 points) - probably the most crucial event in the decathlon. Eaton mark from Eugene would get him an individual medal in London (double in Rio?). If Eaton will jump 8.00+ then in the pressure of the Olympic final it will be an unbelievable performance. A typical jump 7.80-7.90 and he will lose additional ~70 points on his WR pace.

SP (every 50 cm 30 points) - While Eaton had relatively weak event in Eugene (14.20) he cannot expect to close much without breaking into new territory. Realistically, we can except him to gain 20-30 points on his WR pace.

HJ (every 3cm 28 points) - again a crucial event for Eaton’s chances. In Eugene he jumped 2.05 in the heavy rain. This is an event he can close a lot of points. Good HJ will see him back in the pace for WR whereas poor HJ can kill his chances.

400 (every 0.1s 5 points) - Another rain affected event in Eugene. Eaton ran only 46.70 and can improve to low 46 (or even high 45). The “problem” is that like the SP there are not many points in this event. An improvement of a second is worth less than 6cm in the HJ or 30cm in the LJ. Can close ~40 points on his WR pace.

110h (every 0.1s 13 points) - Another low scoring event, another relatively poor Eaton performance (13.70). Can probably run ~13,5 and gain 20-30 points but giving the risk of the high hurdles cannot see him trying to run a new PB.

DT (every 1m 20.5 points) - In training Eaton reportedly throws close to 50, his PB is 47.36. However during a decathlon he broke 45 meters only once (46.71 in Daegu). If he get it right Can surpass his WR performance (42.81) by close to 100 points.

PV (every 10cm 31.5 points) - another huge scoring event, another amazing performance in Eugene (5.30 PB). Eaton usually jump 5.00-5.10 so can lose close to 100 points in this event.

JT (every 1m 15 points) - Eaton improves a lot his JT in the last year and seems consistent around 60m. I believe that he will score close to his Eugene mark (58.81).

1500 (every 1sec 7 points) - The results here is dependent on how fast Eaton needs to run. I can’t see him improving his wonderful Eugene performance but he can come really close if a WR (or Gold) is on the line.

To sum - If you stay with me so far I’m afraid that most of the above can’t help much in Eaton’s chances to break the WR. As DacFan noted these chances are largely to do with Eaton having a below par performance in one of the events. With the Olympic pressure on and so many expectation Eaton will do well to win the Gold. But...

[Jackaloupe]

" In Eugene he jumped 2.05 in the heavy rain." The heavy rain didn't begin until later, by the 400 m; it was also chilly. HJ tarmac was damp but no pools of water; and Eaton's conservative approach matched conditions.

Excellent, detailed analysis w/ realistic projections. Dunno about that subjective rating of 400 and HH as "low scoring events", esp. as AE approaches worldclass times. The 1500 m is the low-scoring event, given how far off world class distance runners Decathletes are, but AE (and the likes of Curtis and friends) is making it respectable, while holding that out as a cushion should he need to regain some points after the Jav.

[olorin]

"

Excellent, detailed analysis w/ realistic projections. Dunno about that subjective rating of 400 and HH as "low scoring events", esp. as AE approaches worldclass times. The 1500 m is the low-scoring event, given how far off world class distance runners Decathletes are, but AE (and the likes of Curtis and friends) is making it respectable, while holding that out as a cushion should he need to regain some points after the Jav.

"low scoring events" - was a poor choice of words. What I meant is that it is hard to improve a lot (scoring wise) in these events. Putting it differently, Eaton chances for a WR are less affected by his marks in these events compared with the likes of LJ, HJ and DT

[Jackaloupe]

Clearly understood, Olerin. However, if you take the margin between his twin performances just a week prior, at the Harry Jerome Classic and the Trials, you'll see that they're virtually identical for the HJ and 400m: ~50 pts. Conditions alone will help both, esp. the 400m, making it notso low scoring, even relatively.

My own take on the latter, posted at the time, was that he went out way to slow (~23 secs for 200m), even if that kept him nice and relaxed to hit the 300 m in good position to kick home. When I happened to see Brianne Thiessen in the stands the next day, I mentioned this; she claimed he aims for even splits, an unusual approach in this event I'd say. I'd always heard that a 2 second differential works best, esp. at the 45-46 level. [I know I needed 3 seconds at the 50 second level back in old DecaDays, '54-'60.]

I'll be expecting an even stronger 2nd day, starting w/ 13.3ish HH, but mostly those improved Weights (I think I recall a better D throw sailing out of bounds, to the right.). The key will be the PV, and Eaton looked great in Eugene. He reacts to a supportive crowd and you can count on that in London.

[norunner]

I don't even care what Eaton does, the fight for the other two medals will be much more exciting to me with at least 5 candidates.

[DecFan]

Here are my projections for the decathlon. Note that these are not predictions – I’m not trying to forecast the results. Some athletes will have a disastrous event or two, and fall well short of these projections; others will achieve significant PRs and will exceed them. Instead, these projections answer the question: “Given what’s happened so far, if everyone were to perform equally well in the remaining events compared to their past performances, what would the final scores be?” Thus, in effect the projections show how the athletes stand relative to each other at a particular point in time, given their different strengths in remaining events.

Throughout the competition, I’ll update the projections after every event.

Projections before the 100m:

Eaton 8973
Hardee 8659
Suarez 8467
Behrenbruch 8407
Sintnicolaas 8404
Van Alphen 8364

I’ll add other decathletes to the projections if the early events indicate they are potential medalists.

Performances used in projections:
Eaton 10.28 7.95 14.35 2.08 46.10 13.55 43.75 5.15 59.00 4:20
Hardee 10.40 7.50 15.60 2.00 48.10 13.70 50.00 5.05 60.00 4:46
Suarez 11.10 7.20 14.50 2.06 49.20 14.30 45.50 4.90 72.00 4:24
Behrenbruch 10.90 7.00 16.20 1.97 48.60 14.20 48.00 4.80 67.00 4:34
Sintnicolaas 10.75 7.30 14.25 1.95 48.10 14.25 42.00 5.30 61.50 4:24
Van Alphen 11.05 7.45 15.10 2.00 49.40 14.70 46.50 4.80 64.50 4:20

For each upcoming event, I’ll also let you know the approximate points that accrue for each increment in performance. For the 100m, each 0.10 is worth about 23 points.

[norunner]

Calling a prediction a projection still makes it a prediction in my view. You "projection" is based on what those athletes achieved so far this year, exactly what any prediction is based on. The only difference seems to be, if the "projections" turn out to be wrong you can always claim, you never predicted anything.

[DecFan]

Calling a prediction a projection still makes it a prediction in my view. You "projection" is based on what those athletes achieved so far this year, exactly what any prediction is based on. The only difference seems to be, if the "projections" turn out to be wrong you can always claim, you never predicted anything.

In an event like the 200, it doesn't make sense to distinguish between a prediction and a projection. In the decathlon, it does. The difference is that in the multis, those who don't follow the event closely need some metric other than points scored to know how the athletes stand relative to each other. My projections try to do that in a consistent way.

In making a projection, I'm asking the question: If the athletes all perform equally relative to their performances from here on out, where do they stand relative to each other NOW? In making a prediction, I'm asking the question: What is the most likely score for each athlete? In most cases, my predictions are lower than these projections, because they take into account the likelihood of poor performances in some events.

I assure you the final results will vary widely from these projections - I'm saying that upfront.

[MDelano]

Pretty much everyone agrees Eaton will win Gold, and most likely go over 9000 again.

The man himself disagrees on that last part, http://www.flotrack.org/speaker/1186-Ashton-Eaton/video/652009-No-World-Record-for-Ashton-in-London