Should Demus be in 4x400 Relay Final


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Re: Should Demus be in 4x400 Relay Final

Postby tgs3 » Sun Jul 29, 2012 6:41 am

Gabriella wrote:Gennady I can see what you're saying; on this seasons times, it does look like Russia are the favourites. But the last time they beat the USA in a relay 'fair and square' i.e no DQ or dropped baton, was in 1999. Beijing was very close and we could blame Kapachinskaya's lack of killer instinct for the failure, but no matter how many sub 50 runners they have or where they are on teh world lists they never raise their game the same way the Americans do and their running order is always wrong.


It's not really season times we're talking about for the Russians. All their great times are based on what they did at the Russian Olympic trials. Take out those times, and the Russians are about 3 seconds slower as a team. Maybe they can replicate those times in London, but I think most of us are skeptical of that. Their times the rest of the year aren't much better than the USA without Richards-Ross (and Felix).
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Re: Should Demus be in 4x400 Relay Final

Postby EPelle » Sun Jul 29, 2012 6:58 am

gennady wrote:Just this season, Russian girls are better than US in all the objective indicators. You do not have any objective argument in the dispute.

All the objective indicators? How fast are the Russians in the 4x4 this season? Have their top women competed in a 4x4? The US is leading the world. At least two of the four women on their world-leading team are competing on the Olympic 4x4 team as well. The objective relay indicators don't appear to validate your claim or invalidate the argument made in the case for the USA.
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Re: Should Demus be in 4x400 Relay Final

Postby Runnerz76 » Sun Jul 29, 2012 7:34 am

I started the original post over a week ago because I couldn't pick the winner of the women's 4x400m. I was going back and forth and I could not seperate the USA and Russian 4x400 teams because they were that close. The Russians clearly have a faster overall time from their four relay members. So, I wanted to know what people thought about putting Demus on the relay in place of an unreliable Trotter. I have come to the conclusion that the USA team has three reliable legs (AF, SRR, McCorory), and the Russians have two reliable legs (Gushchina, Firova). Trotter has shown a tendency in the past to weaken late in the season, and the two Russian runners Krivoshapka and Nazarova usually run about seven tenths of a second slower outside of Russia.
IMO all of you are partially correct, and your theories are very interesting. But this really comes down to two issues once you determine that the USA has three reliabkle legs and the Russians only have two.
The first issue has to do with the Russian running order. In the past, they have put Gushchina first leg because of her 200 speed and her ability to get out fast. And they usually have the winner of the Russian Olympic Trials as their anchor runner. This killed them in 2008 because Kapachinskaya looked like a deer in headlights during the last 150 meters of the 2008 Olympic Final. You could see terror in her eyes as she waited for the American to pass her. You can't have that mentality as the anchor leg of your relay. You need a killer who will close the door on anyone thinking about passing you during the final leg. Firova ran a nice leg for the Russians in Beijing, and always runs well at the end of the season for them. The Russians need to move Krivoshapka to 1st leg. The unreliable Nazarova should go 2nd, followed by Firova 3rd, and Gushchina anchor. This way the Russians will likely have a lead after the first leg, and they will have their two most reliable runners running 3rd and 4th legs for them. You always want a killer as your anchor instead of a filler. And I think Gushchina is that person.
For the USA, they will likely lead off with McCorory, with Felix on 2nd leg, and SRR 4th leg. They will need to decide whether to put Demus on 3rd leg instead of Trotter. And a lot of this will be determined when we see Demus in the 400 meter hurdles final. And the USA coaches will also get to use Trotter in the 4x400 prelim, and let her show them that she belongs in the final. This will be a hell of a 4x400 meter relay Final on the women's side. On paper the Russians have a slight edge. But on the track the Americans have the slight edge.
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Re: Should Demus be in 4x400 Relay Final

Postby Peter Michaelson » Sun Jul 29, 2012 7:47 am

Interesting web site here:

http://runningwritings.blogspot.com/

Scroll down to July 18 for discussion on physics of drafting vs. front-running.
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Re: Should Demus be in 4x400 Relay Final

Postby jazzcyclist » Sun Jul 29, 2012 8:34 am

Peter Michaelson wrote:Interesting web site here:

http://runningwritings.blogspot.com/

Scroll down to July 18 for discussion on physics of drafting vs. front-running.

What's interesting about the article you linked is that it only deals with the draft benefit at middle distance speeds. As we all know, as wind speed increases, wind drag increases exponentially, which means that the draft benefits at 400 speeds are much greater than the draft benefits at middle distance speeds. Here are the links to a couple of other articles on the subject. Warning, the second is very tedious.

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1331759/

http://www.elitetrack.com/article_files ... inting.pdf

Even if you don't want to take the time to read these articles, think of it intuitively. We all know that in the 100-meter dash, a variation of the windspeed by as little as 0.2 m/s willl measurably affect a sprinter's time by 0.01 s, which when extrapolated to 400 meters would be 0.04 s. In order to believe that there is no draft benefit in elite 4x400 relays, you have to also believe that having someone running one meter in front of you at 9 m/s (8 m/s for women), give less of a benefit than a 0.2 m/s tailwind.
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Re: Should Demus be in 4x400 Relay Final

Postby gennady » Sun Jul 29, 2012 8:41 am

mump boy wrote:
gennady wrote:
mump boy wrote:You could put in a US team without Sanya and Alyson and they would still win

It's not about individual speed (especially when run at RUS champs) USA are simply MUCH better really runners than anyone else

In fact, the sport has always guided by results, not emotions.
Just this season, Russian girls are better than US in all the objective indicators.
You do not have any objective argument in the dispute.
For this reason, you still bring the same subjective argument: - "We have always been the best, and for this reason we will win.
I never doubted that the American "T & F" best in the world.
But I do not mix this general situation, the situation in one particular event in one particular season.
If you look objectively at your proposal to run at the Olympics without Alison and Sanya :shock: , in this part of:
Keshia Baker
Deedee Trotter
Francena Mccorory
Diamond Dixon
U.S. can count on the best possible results: 3:20,92 sec.
With this result, the U.S. team is just going to the 5th position after:

1.RUS 3:16,96
2.JAM 3:19,42
3.BLR 3:20,17
4.NGR 3:20,63
5.USA 3:20,92
6.GBR 3:23,24
7.UKR 3:25,01
8.FRA 3:25,75


Where on earth have you got BLR and NGR running 3.20 ?!!

NGR are going to run faster than they did with Ogunkoya, Yusuf and Opara despite having no one who's broken 51 this year ?!! and BLR are going to run even faster, beat US who have 3 runners faster than BLR No1 and beat UK by over 3 seconds despite UK top 4 runners being .6 faster on times this year :?

if this is what 'objectivity' gets you i'll stick with actually knowing about stuff, thanks


Most likely this will not happen.
I just took a typical American reception.
U.S. girls are in the relay run much faster, say many U.S. fans.
I took that rule and applied it to other teams.
Why can assume that other girls can not run well in the relay?
For Belarus:
SB___ Split Split date
52,06 49,69 23.08.2008 Sviatlana Usovich Beijing
51,79 51,80 02.09.2011 Hanna Tashpulatava Daegu
51,50 49,85 23.08.2008 Ilona Usovich Beijing
52,70 50,60 02.09.2011 Yulyana Yushchanka Daegu
208,05 201,94 Sum SB/ Sum Splits
SB 2012 6,11sec Dif.=(Sum SB - Sum Splits)
206,28 SB 2012
51,00
51,43
51,69
52,16
200,17 SB 2012 - Dif.
3:20,17 Max. Predicted Result

For Nigeria:
SB___ Split Split date
51,11 50,42 09.06.2012 Regina George NCAA 2012
52,74 51,60 02.09.2011 Omolara Omotosho Daegu
52,35 50,59 03.09.2011 Bukola Abogunloko Daegu
52,77 51,36 02.09.2011 Margaret Etim Daegu
208,97 203,97
SB 2012 5,00sec Dif.=(Sum SB - Sum Splits)
205,63 SB 2012
51,11
51,28
51,57
51,67
200,63 SB 2012 - Dif.
3:20,63 Max. Predicted Result
All results are taken from here:
http://www.alltime-athletics.com/w4x400ok.htm
So, the ball is on your side. :lol:
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Re: Should Demus be in 4x400 Relay Final

Postby t_monk » Sun Jul 29, 2012 8:56 am

I'd add Fedoriva in place of Nazarova.... Fedoriva for the 2nd leg.... Her or Antyukh...
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Re: Should Demus be in 4x400 Relay Final

Postby gennady » Sun Jul 29, 2012 9:02 am

Runnerz76 wrote:I started the original post over a week ago.... The unreliable Nazarova...

A very strange statement. :shock:
Not a reliable athlete can not be with so merit:

Natalya Nazarova
Medal record
Women's athletics
Competitor for  Russia
Olympic Games
Bronze 2000 Sydney 4×400 m relay
Silver 2004 Athens 4×400 m relay
World Championships
Gold 1999 Seville 4×400 m relay
Silver 2003 Paris 4×400 m relay
Bronze 2009 Berlin 4x400 m relay
World Indoor Championships
Gold 1999 Maebashi 4×400 m relay
Gold 2003 Birmingham 400 m
Gold 2003 Birmingham 4×400 m relay
Gold 2004 Budapest 400 m
Gold 2004 Budapest 4×400 m relay
Gold 2006 Moscow 4×400 m relay
Gold 2008 Valencia 4×400 m relay
Silver 2008 Valencia 400 m
Silver 2010 Doha 4x400 m relay
8-th times WC Gold medal :shock:
Taken from here:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Natalya_Nazarova
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Re: Should Demus be in 4x400 Relay Final

Postby Runnerz76 » Sun Jul 29, 2012 10:12 am

gennady wrote:
Runnerz76 wrote:I started the original post over a week ago.... The unreliable Nazarova...

A very strange statement. :shock:
Not a reliable athlete can not be with so merit:

Natalya Nazarova
Medal record
Women's athletics
Competitor for  Russia
Olympic Games
Bronze 2000 Sydney 4×400 m relay
Silver 2004 Athens 4×400 m relay
World Championships
Gold 1999 Seville 4×400 m relay
Silver 2003 Paris 4×400 m relay
Bronze 2009 Berlin 4x400 m relay
World Indoor Championships
Gold 1999 Maebashi 4×400 m relay
Gold 2003 Birmingham 400 m
Gold 2003 Birmingham 4×400 m relay
Gold 2004 Budapest 400 m
Gold 2004 Budapest 4×400 m relay
Gold 2006 Moscow 4×400 m relay
Gold 2008 Valencia 4×400 m relay
Silver 2008 Valencia 400 m
Silver 2010 Doha 4x400 m relay
8-th times WC Gold medal :shock:
Taken from here:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Natalya_Nazarova



My statement isn't strange if you examine what the 33 year old Nazarova has done during the last four years. She has a clear record of running much faster in the Russian Championships, and then going to Europe and crapping the bed.

~Example #1, In 2009, Nazarova ran a respectable 50.56 at the Russian Championships. She continued her season that year outside of Russia and never broke 52.10 for the rest of the season. She was a full second and a half slower outside of Russia.

~Example # 2, in 2010, Nazarova ran 50.88 at the Russian Championships. She continued her season outside of Russia for several races and could only run a best time of 52.20. She was a full second and a half slower outside of Russia.

~In 2011, Nazarova only ran a few relays and didnt run in any open 400 meter races.

I am not taking any credit away from Nazarova. She has had an amazing career and won many medals. She is a remarkable runner with great credentials. But we are talking about the 2012 Olympics, not 2004. We are talking about a race that will be run outside of Russia. I have concerns about the 33 year old Nazarova, and her ability to win the gold medal for Russia in London. She has not proven to be reliable ouside of Russia in the last four years. Do the Russians want to pin their hopes on someone who can run 50 seconds in Russia, but can't run much faster than 51.5 outside of the country. I think not.
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Re: Should Demus be in 4x400 Relay Final

Postby gennady » Sun Jul 29, 2012 11:05 am

I think that everything will be clarified in the tournament 400m.
We have a good bench, although I would like to see Litvinova instead of Kapachinskaya.
Kapachinskaya had a chance in 2008 if not she, then we would be champions.
She has no moral right to a second golden chance, and Litvinova need to repay the debt in 2008.
These figures are well speak for themselves.
2012 2008 2008
50,61 50,62 49,20 Lyudmila Litvinova
50,37 50,03 49,82 Anastasiya Kapachinskaya
It can also be included Antyukh it on July 21 showed 22.72 not bad at 200m.
Last edited by gennady on Sun Jul 29, 2012 12:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Should Demus be in 4x400 Relay Final

Postby Gabriella » Sun Jul 29, 2012 12:26 pm

gennady wrote:
Runnerz76 wrote:I started the original post over a week ago.... The unreliable Nazarova...

A very strange statement. :shock:


She may have been on lots of winning relay teams, but in outdoor championships she can be described as 'okay' at best. As far as I'm aware she has never run sub 50 on an outdoor major championship relay. In Munich 02 (Europeans) she ran 52.0 on the second leg. In Paris 03 she was on the last leg and only ran 50.93, despite running sub 50 in the 400 final. In Athens 04 she ran 50.0 on the second leg. She did the same split time in Osaka 07 on the same leg; and that effectively ruled them out of any chance of gold or silver. Even her best tactical leg, back in Seville, was a 50.17.

So, I would definitely not include her in my final 4. I wouldn't have included Vdovina either, who has run poor relay legs... but both of these have been selected over Litvinova, who is a much more reliable relay runner but only 7th in the nationals.
They'll probably run Vdovina in just the heats, with either Nazarova or Kapachinskaya then two from their 3 fastest this year; Firova, Guschine & Krivoshapka.
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Re: Should Demus be in 4x400 Relay Final

Postby ATK » Sun Jul 29, 2012 12:46 pm

gennady wrote: We have a good bench, although I would like to see Litvinova instead of Kapachinskaya.
Kapachinskaya had a chance in 2008 if not she, then we would be champions.


Do you really think that? She got ran down in the final meters by SRR, the 7th fastest woman in history. Not only that but she anchored her team to a time less than .5 from their national record...
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Re: Should Demus be in 4x400 Relay Final

Postby gennady » Sun Jul 29, 2012 2:45 pm

ATK wrote:
gennady wrote: We have a good bench, although I would like to see Litvinova instead of Kapachinskaya.
Kapachinskaya had a chance in 2008 if not she, then we would be champions.


Do you really think that? She got ran down in the final meters by SRR, the 7th fastest woman in history. Not only that but she anchored her team to a time less than .5 from their national record...

Absolutely.
You quote the subjective facts of the series: "shouda, woulda, coulda".
I quote you the objective facts - Kapachinskaya a bad relay runner, in comparison with other Russian girls:
_SB_ _Split _Dif. Leg Date Name.
51,25 51,10 -0,15 1 02.09.2007 Litvinova
50,62 49,20 -1,42 3 23.08.2008 Litvinova
50,27 50,01 -0,26 3 23.08.2009 Litvinova
50,92 49,96 -0,96 3 03.09.2011 Litvinova
__.__ Sum. -2,79
50,59 50,67 0,08 3 31.08.2003 Kapachinskaya
50,02 49,82 -0,20 4 23.08.2008 Kapachinskaya
50,16 50,60 0,44 1 01.08.2010 Kapachinskaya
49,35 49,22 -0,13 1 03.09.2011 Kapachinskaya
49,97 50,76 0,79 1 23.08.2009 Kapachinskaya
__.__ Sum. 0,98 :(
50,11 49,20 -0,91 3 23.08.2008 Firova
50,41 50,09 -0,32 3 13.08.2005 Firova
49,89 49,44 -0,45 4 01.08.2010 Firova
50,59 49,81 -0,78 2 23.08.2009 Firova
50,59 49,50 -1,09 2 22.08.2009 Firova
__.__ Sum. -3,55
49,65 50,00 0,35 2 28.08.2004 Nazarova
50,52 50,00 -0,52 2 02.09.2007 Nazarova
50,48 50,17 -0,31 4 29.08.1999 Nazarova
49,78 50,93 1,15 4 31.08.2003 Nazarova
50,56 51,80 0,67 1 22.08.2009 Nazarova
__.__ Sum. 0,67
49,85 49,43 -0,42 4 28.08.2004 Antyukh
49,93 49,40 -0,53 4 02.09.2007 Antyukh
50,67 49,40 -1,27 2 13.08.2005 Antyukh
50,67 49,72 -0,95 3 14.08.2005 Antyukh
50,73 50,00 -0,73 2 03.09.2011 Antyukh
Nres. 50,35 3 20.06.2010 Antyukh
50,90 50,85 -0,05 3 22.08.2009 Antyukh
__.__ Sum. -3,00
Later, I will send you a more in-depth analysis.
Try to imagine what would be discussed at this forum, if the first number of U.S. team 4x400m having at exchange 0.66sec ahead, would have lost at the finish 0.23sec.
It is terrible to think about it. :shock:
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Re: Should Demus be in 4x400 Relay Final

Postby ATK » Sun Jul 29, 2012 3:12 pm

gennady wrote:
ATK wrote:
gennady wrote: We have a good bench, although I would like to see Litvinova instead of Kapachinskaya.
Kapachinskaya had a chance in 2008 if not she, then we would be champions.


Do you really think that? She got ran down in the final meters by SRR, the 7th fastest woman in history. Not only that but she anchored her team to a time less than .5 from their national record...

Absolutely.
You quote the subjective facts of the series: "shouda, woulda, coulda".
I quote you the objective facts - Kapachinskaya a bad relay runner, in comparison with other Russian girls:

.........

Later, I will send you a more in-depth analysis.
Try to imagine what would be discussed at this forum, if the first number of U.S. team 4x400m having at exchange 0.66sec ahead, would have lost at the finish 0.22sec.
It is terrible to think about it. :shock:

Your killing yourself with stats.
You are actually the one giving "shouda, woulda, coulda" answers.

These are the facts:
Kapa WAS the russian anchor leg in Beijing.
Russia DID run within .5 of their national record in the 4x4.
Kapa DID get run down by the 7th fastest woman in history, while she had never even even broken 50 yet.

You cant say that any other Russian would have run better than Kapa did on that anchor leg in Beijing based off what they had done before or in other relays. That is 100% assumption.
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Re: Should Demus be in 4x400 Relay Final

Postby mump boy » Mon Jul 30, 2012 1:03 am

gennady wrote:
ATK wrote:
gennady wrote: We have a good bench, although I would like to see Litvinova instead of Kapachinskaya.
Kapachinskaya had a chance in 2008 if not she, then we would be champions.


Do you really think that? She got ran down in the final meters by SRR, the 7th fastest woman in history. Not only that but she anchored her team to a time less than .5 from their national record...

Absolutely.
You quote the subjective facts of the series: "shouda, woulda, coulda".
I quote you the objective facts - Kapachinskaya a bad relay runner, in comparison with other Russian girls:
_SB_ _Split _Dif. Leg Date Name.
51,25 51,10 -0,15 1 02.09.2007 Litvinova
50,62 49,20 -1,42 3 23.08.2008 Litvinova
50,27 50,01 -0,26 3 23.08.2009 Litvinova
50,92 49,96 -0,96 3 03.09.2011 Litvinova
__.__ Sum. -2,79
50,59 50,67 0,08 3 31.08.2003 Kapachinskaya
50,02 49,82 -0,20 4 23.08.2008 Kapachinskaya
50,16 50,60 0,44 1 01.08.2010 Kapachinskaya
49,35 49,22 -0,13 1 03.09.2011 Kapachinskaya
49,97 50,76 0,79 1 23.08.2009 Kapachinskaya
__.__ Sum. 0,98 :(
50,11 49,20 -0,91 3 23.08.2008 Firova
50,41 50,09 -0,32 3 13.08.2005 Firova
49,89 49,44 -0,45 4 01.08.2010 Firova
50,59 49,81 -0,78 2 23.08.2009 Firova
50,59 49,50 -1,09 2 22.08.2009 Firova
__.__ Sum. -3,55
49,65 50,00 0,35 2 28.08.2004 Nazarova
50,52 50,00 -0,52 2 02.09.2007 Nazarova
50,48 50,17 -0,31 4 29.08.1999 Nazarova
49,78 50,93 1,15 4 31.08.2003 Nazarova
50,56 51,80 0,67 1 22.08.2009 Nazarova
__.__ Sum. 0,67
49,85 49,43 -0,42 4 28.08.2004 Antyukh
49,93 49,40 -0,53 4 02.09.2007 Antyukh
50,67 49,40 -1,27 2 13.08.2005 Antyukh
50,67 49,72 -0,95 3 14.08.2005 Antyukh
50,73 50,00 -0,73 2 03.09.2011 Antyukh
Nres. 50,35 3 20.06.2010 Antyukh
50,90 50,85 -0,05 3 22.08.2009 Antyukh
__.__ Sum. -3,00
Later, I will send you a more in-depth analysis.
Try to imagine what would be discussed at this forum, if the first number of U.S. team 4x400m having at exchange 0.66sec ahead, would have lost at the finish 0.23sec.
It is terrible to think about it. :shock:


Please don't :?
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Re: Should Demus be in 4x400 Relay Final

Postby Flumpy » Mon Jul 30, 2012 2:35 am

You do know that you can edit a quote don't you :?:
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Re: Should Demus be in 4x400 Relay Final

Postby ChuiTai » Sat Aug 11, 2012 10:47 pm

I would be interested in reading a post race assessment from Gennady. Why 3:20 from the Russian women? How were the principles mentioned arriving at such average performance levels?
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Re: Should Demus be in 4x400 Relay Final

Postby jazzcyclist » Tue Oct 16, 2012 10:09 am

jazzcyclist wrote:What's interesting about the article you linked is that it only deals with the draft benefit at middle distance speeds. As we all know, as wind speed increases, wind drag increases exponentially, which means that the draft benefits at 400 speeds are much greater than the draft benefits at middle distance speeds. Here are the links to a couple of other articles on the subject. Warning, the second is very tedious.

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1331759/

http://www.elitetrack.com/article_files ... inting.pdf

Even if you don't want to take the time to read these articles, think of it intuitively. We all know that in the 100-meter dash, a variation of the windspeed by as little as 0.2 m/s willl measurably affect a sprinter's time by 0.01 s, which when extrapolated to 400 meters would be 0.04 s. In order to believe that there is no draft benefit in elite 4x400 relays, you have to also believe that having someone running one meter in front of you at 9 m/s (8 m/s for women), give less of a benefit than a 0.2 m/s tailwind.

Finally a wind tunnel test which proves what I've been saying all along. From the article linked on the front page:

The first question is how much energy air resistance actually costs you. There have been a few studies with different estimates, but the one that seems most reliable is this 1980 Journal of Applied Physiology paper:

The energy cost of overcoming air resistance on a calm day outdoor was calculated to be 7.8% for sprinting (10 m/s), 4% middle-distance (6 m/s), and 2% marathon (5 m/s) running.

These are significant amounts of energy -- and of course, if you're running into a headwind, the cost is significantly greater. A speed of 5 m/s is about 5:22/mile, so it's safe to assume that drafting isn't really relevant at speeds of, say, 7:00/mile or slower unless there's a significant headwind.

The second question is whether you really benefit from tucking behind a runner in front of you. The canonical study here was done by Griffith Pugh -- best known as the physiologist on the first successful Everest mission -- in 1971. . . . . .

This shows oxygen consumption (which is basically equivalent to energy consumption) for a runner running alone at 6:00/mile in a wind tunnel, versus the same runner running at the same pace one meter behind another runner in the wind tunnel. It's pretty clear that there's a big energy saving from drafting. Pugh runs some calculations to determine that at 4:30 mile pace, drafting one meter behind another runner on a still day saves about 80% of the energy you'd otherwise spend fighting air resistance. That corresponds to about 1 second per 400 meters at that pace, and more on windy days.

http://sweatscience.runnersworld.com/20 ... n-running/
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