Should Demus be in 4x400 Relay Final

[Marlow]

from where I sit the only way Russia can beat the U.S. is to ensure a mismatch on the first leg and get out in front so that the U.S. has to run more than 1600m.

You lost me. Are you insinuating that we'd have to be in Lane 2 on a curve to pass? A pass on the straight wouldn't add a meter would it?

[gennady]

One HUGE flaw in your calculations...... Allyson Felix.....

Forgetfulness took an old settlement, to DQ Debbie Dunn!
He has made the correct changes to the previous post. Look again after editing.
Russia won no less than 0.5 seconds.

Yup.... I actually agree.... the big problem with the US team is a doubling SRR and Felix.... Felix would have ran 3 rounds of 100, 3 rounds of 200 and the finals of the 4x100 prior to running a leg of the 4x400. While SRR would have ran 3 rounds of 400 and 3 rounds of 200 before running a leg of the 4x400.

Felix has been split 48.0 in Osaka after 3 rounds of 200m.
In Sanya 48.43 split was also fourth in Berlin.
I am afraid that they shot all their bullets before relay.

[iain]

from where I sit the only way Russia can beat the U.S. is to ensure a mismatch on the first leg and get out in front so that the U.S. has to run more than 1600m.

I have to disagree. Russia came very close in 08 without a sub-50 runner. With both the US' best runners doubling, I would expect Russia to win.

[gh]

from where I sit the only way Russia can beat the U.S. is to ensure a mismatch on the first leg and get out in front so that the U.S. has to run more than 1600m.

You lost me. Are you insinuating that we'd have to be in Lane 2 on a curve to pass? A pass on the straight wouldn't add a meter would it?

I always sucked at geometry, but I'm pretty darn sure that any motion you make that isn't parallel to the lane line adds distance. May not be much, but it may not take much.

You're also ignoring two other basics:

The tendency when you are shadowing somebody is pull up (even on the curve) on their outside shoulder. You avoid getting spiked and are meter closer to them than you would be if you stuck to the rail. More distance covered.

And then there's sure to be at least one aborted passing attempt, where you swing wide and move, but the runner ahead of you counters, and if it doesn't' feel right, you pull back in. Repeat if necessary.

All this adds significant distance to a front-running bunch on the rail the whole way (after the first 3 turns, obviously).

[ATK]

from where I sit the only way Russia can beat the U.S. is to ensure a mismatch on the first leg and get out in front so that the U.S. has to run more than 1600m.

I have to disagree. Russia came very close in 08 without a sub-50 runner. With both the US' best runners doubling, I would expect Russia to win.

Yea the US had 2 sub par legs in Wineberg and Henderson.

[notlef70]

from where I sit the only way Russia can beat the U.S. is to ensure a mismatch on the first leg and get out in front so that the U.S. has to run more than 1600m.

I have to disagree. Russia came very close in 08 without a sub-50 runner. With both the US' best runners doubling, I would expect Russia to win.

"OH YE OF LITTLE FAITH!!!" You can expect Russia to win, however, the 4x400 is a pride thing. With AF and SRR on the team, and Mccorry/Demus or the other young lady, they WILL NOT LOSE!!! Barring injury, or course....

[gennady]

Let us remember 2008, as it were.

Split _SB_ Dif. Leg time
50,32 51,00 -0,68 _51,00 Mary Wineberg
49,83 48,60 1,23 _99,60 Allyson Felix
50,98 50,06 0,92 149,66 Monique Henderson
49,93 48,93 1,00 198,59 Sanya Richards-Ross

50,01 50,60 -0,59 _50,60 Yuliya Gushchina
50,62 49,20 1,42 _99,80 Lyudmila Litvinova
50,11 49,20 0,91 149,00 Tatyana Firova
50,03 49,82 0,21 198,82 Anastasiya Kapachinskaya


The first three Russian girls Won three stages of his relay with a difference 0.66sek.
The Russian team did not lose the relay.
Relay Kapachinskaya lost.
She lost a step Sanya with a difference 0.89sec.
In the finals she loses, but with a smaller difference:
49,62 1 Christine Ohuruogu
50,03 5 Anastasiya Kapachinskaya
-0,41
Here are the results of her last years in the relay:

Split _SB_ Dif. Date
50,03 49,82 0,21 23.08.2008 leg 4 Beijing
50,59 50,67 -0,08 31.08.2003 leg 3 Saint-Denis
49,35 49,22 0,13 31.08.2003 leg 4 Daegu
50,16 50,60 -0,44 01.08.2010 leg 1 Barcelona
49,97 50,76 -0,79 23.08.2009 leg 1 Berlin

The conclusion is simple - she does not relay a fighter, I can not understand why the Russian coaches is hard do not see.

[iain]

Kapchinskaya is slower than Krivoshapka, Gushchina, Firova, Nazarova this year, plus Antyukh will probs be picked ahead. Ergo, Russia win :p

[Marquis]

The best possible choice for the relay pool is not eligible to run the rounds and that is World Junior Champ Ashley Spencer who skipped the trials to concentrate on the Junior Champs where she destroyed the field. Would have been great experience for the USA's next great 400 runner.

[jazzcyclist]

The tendency when you are shadowing somebody is pull up (even on the curve) on their outside shoulder. You avoid getting spiked and are meter closer to them than you would be if you stuck to the rail. More distance covered.

Yeah, but the extra distance run on the curves is outweighed by the benefits of drafting for the entire lap.

[gh]

while it can be handy to have somebody act as a bit of a wind break for you, I've never really bought into the theory that drafting would have any significant effect (or even work) at such slow speeds.

[ATK]

while it can be handy to have somebody act as a bit of a wind break for you, I've never really bought into the theory that drafting would have any significant effect (or even work) at such slow speeds.

Even so, I doubt it comes close to outweighing the extra distance run.

[j-a-m]

Yeah, but the extra distance run on the curves is outweighed by the benefits of drafting for the entire lap.

What about the rabbit / pace setter effect?

[gh]

totally different concept on a 400 relay leg than in distance running.

[jazzcyclist]

while it can be handy to have somebody act as a bit of a wind break for you, I've never really bought into the theory that drafting would have any significant effect (or even work) at such slow speeds.

You're mistaken. At 18 mph for women and 20 mph for men, there is absolutely a measurable draft benefit.

[ATK]

while it can be handy to have somebody act as a bit of a wind break for you, I've never really bought into the theory that drafting would have any significant effect (or even work) at such slow speeds.

You're mistaken. At 18 mph for women and 20 mph for men, there is absolutely a measurable draft benefit.

Your talking about the fastest athletes ever running at those speeds. If im correct, most of these athletes don't go that fast in the 400m.

[Peter Michaelson]

NotSoOrdinary:

Please refresh my memory. What happened with Trotter on the relay in Osaka?

aaronk:

Am I missing something? The first split is from the gun to the 800 start line. The second split is from the 800 start line to the finish line. The third and fourth splits are finish line to finish line. As long as you can see the 800 start line (which is the 1 turn stagger line) you should not have a problem.

[jazzcyclist]

while it can be handy to have somebody act as a bit of a wind break for you, I've never really bought into the theory that drafting would have any significant effect (or even work) at such slow speeds.

You're mistaken. At 18 mph for women and 20 mph for men, there is absolutely a measurable draft benefit.

Your talking about the fastest athletes ever running at those speeds. If im correct, most of these athletes don't go that fast in the 400m.

I'm tallking about mid-49 splits for the women and mid-44 splits for the women, which is about average for a American national team, if not slightly below average. The fastest splits of all time would give speeds of 19 mph and 21 mph, respectively.

[ATK]

I'm tallking about mid-49 splits for the women and mid-44 splits for the women, which is about average for a American national team, if not slightly below average. The fastest splits of all time would give speeds of 19 mph and 21 mph, respectively.

curious if you can show me some states on this.

[jazzcyclist]

I'm tallking about mid-49 splits for the women and mid-44 splits for the women, which is about average for a American national team, if not slightly below average. The fastest splits of all time would give speeds of 19 mph and 21 mph, respectively.

curious if you can show me some states on this.

It's pretty straightforward math. To calculate the average speed in mph from a 400 time, divide 1440 by the time and multiply by 0.621:

(1440/time) x 0.621 = speed in mph.

Michael Johnson has split 42.91 and Marita Koch has split 47.70. You do the math.

[NotSoOrdinary]

You are right GH. I think the USA women's 4x400 should just concentrate on winning the Gold Medal first. The Russians are coming with much more talent than they brought in 2008. Go ahead and give the American women the Gold at your own peril. But I think it will be a hell of a final. It will surely take 3:16 or better to beat the Russians this year.

People have been saying this for the past 3 years #RIP

[NotSoOrdinary]

NotSoOrdinary:

Please refresh my memory. What happened with Trotter on the relay in Osaka?

She handed off I believe 4th or 5th...

[NotSoOrdinary]

I don't think we need to use any calculations or mathematics when it comes down to who's going to win the 4x400m. When was the last time the US lost a major 4x400?

But aside from that, Allyson and Sanya both turn into different runners dependent upon the circumstances. They can push themselves beyond what is expected, purely because they "don't want to let the team down."

Allyson had never been on a major 4x400 relay until 2007 and when she saw how behind the US was she simply closed the gap and in the process ran the fastest split ever. Sanya is the same way. They won't let the US lose.

[Peter Michaelson]

NotSoOrdinary:

The last time the US lost a major 4 x 400 was March 11, 2012.

[NotSoOrdinary]

NotSoOrdinary:

The last time the US lost a major 4 x 400 was March 11, 2012.

I expected a smart alec response like this. Of course, why don't we bring up indoors in a thread specifically talking about outdoors. Not only that, but a race where GB's best team barely beat a USA B-team. I literally could only name Sanya and Natasha on the US team, the other two are complete non-factors.

So let me ask again, more specifically this time:

When was the last time another country defeated a USA A-team (meaning a team that included both AF & SRR) in a major outdoor competition?

[jazzcyclist]

Allyson had never been on a major 4x400 relay until 2007 and when she saw how behind the US was she simply closed the gap and in the process ran the fastest split ever. Sanya is the same way. They won't let the US lose.

Allyson did not run the fastest split ever.

[NotSoOrdinary]

Allyson had never been on a major 4x400 relay until 2007 and when she saw how behind the US was she simply closed the gap and in the process ran the fastest split ever. Sanya is the same way. They won't let the US lose.

Allyson did not run the fastest split ever.

Sure she did. AF 48.0 > Flojo 48.1

For multiple reasons.

[jjimbojames]

AF still ran slower than others though - or do you mean fastest American split?

[NotSoOrdinary]

AF still ran slower than others though - or do you mean fastest American split?

American.

[DJG]

The "other relay" is my main concern, but let me say that
the Russian 4x4 teams I have watched over the years manage
to under-perform when it counts the most.
I expect they will run the fastest qualifying time in the prelims,
only to come in third or fourth in the final.
The US will win this easily...I would lead SRR off and follow with AF...
the other 2 legs will then run comfortably with a big lead that
will get bigger as the others go out too fast and finish too slow.

I also believe this drafting thing is more myth than real at these speeds (sorry Jazz, we
respectfully disagree again) and smart 400 runners pass on the straights and not the turns.
So this "extra distance" thing should not be a factor either.


The US women win by 25 m or more.

[EPelle]

Allyson had never been on a major 4x400 relay until 2007 and when she saw how behind the US was she simply closed the gap and in the process ran the fastest split ever. Sanya is the same way. They won't let the US lose.

Allyson did not run the fastest split ever.

Fastest world championships split. Ever.

[jazzcyclist]

I would lead SRR off and follow with AF...
the other 2 legs will then run comfortably with a big lead that
will get bigger as the others go out too fast and finish too slow.

I mentioned in an earlier post why I thought it was a bad idea to put Sanya on scratch leg instead of McCrory. I will have to respectfully disagree with you on this one.

I also believe this drafting thing is more myth than real at these speeds (sorry Jazz, we respectfully disagree again) and smart 400 runners pass on the straights and not the turns.

This is a science thing, not an opinion thing. Do you believe in physics?

So this "extra distance" thing should not be a factor either.

I believe gh was talking about the tendency of trailing runners to run on the shoulder of the leading runner through the turn, to the outside of lane one instead of up against the rail.

[iain]

The Russians didn't underperform in Beijing.
Pre Olympic Times:
2008
USA - 49.74, 49.83, 50.32, 50.80
RUS - 50.02, 50.12, 50.25, 50.51
2012
USA - 49.28, 50.02, 50.06, 50.50
RUS - 49.16, 49.28, 49.72, 50.00

USA = -0.83
RUS = -2.74

From 08 times:
USA - 3:17.71
RUS - 3:16.08

[gennady]

I don't think we need to use any calculations or mathematics when it comes down to who's going to win the 4x400m. When was the last time the US lost a major 4x400?

But aside from that, Allyson and Sanya both turn into different runners dependent upon the circumstances. They can push themselves beyond what is expected, purely because they "don't want to let the team down."

Allyson had never been on a major 4x400 relay until 2007 and when she saw how behind the US was she simply closed the gap and in the process ran the fastest split ever. Sanya is the same way. They won't let the US lose.

I have already said in one of the posts, Sanya and Allyson great athletes, fighters.
I am to them with great respect.
But look at the schedule for their participation in the Olympics.

Felix: 100heats; 24 hours; 100S/Fin; 48 hours; 200heats; 24 hours; 200S; 24 hours; 200Fin; 24 hours 4х100heats; 24 hours; 4х100Fin; 24 hours; 4х400Fin;(8th start).

Ross: 400heats; 24 hours; 400S; 24 hours; 400Fin; 24 hours; 200heats; 24 hours; 200S; 24 hours; 200Fin; 48 hours; 4х400heats?; 24 hours; 4х400Fin;(8th start).

They are great, but not "iron machines".
Require or rely on their high splits in the 4x400 is not correct and not real.

[DJG]

I would lead SRR off and follow with AF...
the other 2 legs will then run comfortably with a big lead that
will get bigger as the others go out too fast and finish too slow.

I think that's a bad idea for reason that I mentioned earlier.
I mentioned in an earlier post why I thought it was a bad idea to put Sanya on scratch leg instead of McCrory. I will have to respectfully disagree with you on this one.

I also believe this drafting thing is more myth than real at these speeds (sorry Jazz, we respectfully disagree again) and smart 400 runners pass on the straights and not the turns.

This is a science thing, not an opinion thing. Do you believe in physics?

So this "extra distance" thing should not be a factor either.

I believe gh was talking about the tendency of trailing runners to run on the shoulder of the leading runner through the turn, to the outside of lane one instead of up against the rail.

Sure physics is a fine thing...I recall reading that according to physics divers should not be capable of doing some of the moves in their dives that they do.
As for any infinitissimal positive effect a runner may get from basically running in the other runner's shorts, that is negated by the elbow to his mid-section that will shortly be delivered by any competent competitor.

As for the order of the relay, in this 4x4 it won't matter ...but where did you get the habit of
calling one leg the "scratch leg"? at a dog track somewhere?