Should Demus be in 4x400 Relay Final

[Runnerz76]

The USA women will have a tough decision to make in the 4x400 meter Final in London. Should the Americans let Lashinda Demus run the Final of the 4x400 Relay? SRR and Felix are in the relay Final for certain. The next three fastest girls are Trotter (50.02), McCorory (50.06), and Demus. Coaches have to pick two of those three ladies. The Russians have a tough team so the Americans will need their best four runners in order to win the Gold Medal. We all know Demus can run 50 point something on the relay. Should that be good enough to kick one of the other girls off of the relay? I dont know the answer. What do you think?

[EZSum]

Unless she shows sub 53 form (or 53.x with horrific hurdling) I doubt she'd be fast enough to warrant it. Having said that, hurdlers can be pretty feisty with a baton in their hands. I still have warm memories of a certain Mr Akabusi.

[tgs3]

The USA women will have a tough decision to make in the 4x400 meter Final in London. Should the Americans let Lashinda Demus run the Final of the 4x400 Relay? SRR and Felix are in the relay Final for certain. The next three fastest girls are Trotter (50.02), McCorory (50.06), and Demus. Coaches have to pick two of those three ladies. The Russians have a tough team so the Americans will need their best four runners in order to win the Gold Medal. We all know Demus can run 50 point something on the relay. Should that be good enough to kick one of the other girls off of the relay? I dont know the answer. What do you think?

What possible reason is there to think that Demus is faster than McCrory or Trotter? The decision to run Taylor and Jackson on the relays last year on the men's side was a terrible one.

[gh]

Trotter's PR is 49.64

[NotSoOrdinary]

I replay Trotter's 2007 Osaka leg in my head every time I think about her being on a major relay.

[TxHottrack]

The USA women will have a tough decision to make in the 4x400 meter Final in London. Should the Americans let Lashinda Demus run the Final of the 4x400 Relay? SRR and Felix are in the relay Final for certain. The next three fastest girls are Trotter (50.02), McCorory (50.06), and Demus. Coaches have to pick two of those three ladies. The Russians have a tough team so the Americans will need their best four runners in order to win the Gold Medal. We all know Demus can run 50 point something on the relay. Should that be good enough to kick one of the other girls off of the relay? I dont know the answer. What do you think?

What possible reason is there to think that Demus is faster than McCrory or Trotter? The decision to run Taylor and Jackson on the relays last year on the men's side was a terrible one.

CO-SIGN

[j-a-m]

Trotter and McCorory got this.

[guru]

Trotter and McCorory got this.

I agree, but Demus should get a chance to show her form in the 4x4 heats

[mump boy]

Lashinda ran a 49.38 anchor at the word cup in athens 06

i have no idea if she is faster now or not but she definitely shouldn't be discounted for a relay place

[CookyMonzta]

Trotter's PR is 49.64

She hasn't been close to that in a long time. I'd be tempted to relegate her to the heats, if not the first leg.

[ATK]

Don't forget Demus was on the 2009 relay that ran the 6th fastest time in history.

I think a team of Felix,SRR,Demus, McCrory is the fastest possible team and could challenge the AR, considering all 4 are close to if not in PR form in their event.
The problem is, Demus would have to run the prelim since Felix and SRR are not running the prelim. She would have a full day of rest after the hurdle final to the relay prelims.

I think Trotters performance in the open and in the relay prelim will be a major determining factor if she runs in the final. If she under performs, Demus is on the relay.

[CookyMonzta]

Don't forget Demus was on the 2009 relay that ran the 6th fastest time in history.

I think a team of Felix,SRR,Demus, McCrory is the fastest possible team and could challenge the AR, considering all 4 are close to if not in PR form in their event.
The problem is, Demus would have to run the prelim since Felix and SRR are not running the prelim. She would have a full day of rest after the hurdle final to the relay prelims.

I think Trotters performance in the open and in the relay prelim will be a major determining factor if she runs in the final. If she under performs, Demus is on the relay.

If the AR (3:15.51) goes, the WR (3:15.17) will most likely go as well.

[ATK]

Don't forget Demus was on the 2009 relay that ran the 6th fastest time in history.

I think a team of Felix,SRR,Demus, McCrory is the fastest possible team and could challenge the AR, considering all 4 are close to if not in PR form in their event.
The problem is, Demus would have to run the prelim since Felix and SRR are not running the prelim. She would have a full day of rest after the hurdle final to the relay prelims.

I think Trotters performance in the open and in the relay prelim will be a major determining factor if she runs in the final. If she under performs, Demus is on the relay.

If the AR (3:15.51) goes, the WR (3:15.17) will most likely go as well.

Maybe. The American women did run the time and not break the world record so, you cant really say the if the AR happens so will the WR.

My use of the word "challenge" is very loose though. IMO if they get into 3.16 mid to low range, I would consider that challenging the AR.

[gh]

The legs on the AR were 49.82, 49.17, 48.44, 48.08: in other words, each of the women who will run in London (no matter who they are) basically need to PR.... do you really think that that will happen? And to the level that's required? That is some major-league humping we're talking about.

[guru]

The legs on the AR were 49.82, 49.17, 48.44, 48.08: in other words, each of the women who will run in London (no matter who they are) basically need to PR.... do you really think that that will happen? And to the level that's required?

And as I've said since time immemorial - even if capable, they won't(can't) do it alone. So who's going to push them to it?

[Runnerz76]

You are right GH. I think the USA women's 4x400 should just concentrate on winning the Gold Medal first. The Russians are coming with much more talent than they brought in 2008. Go ahead and give the American women the Gold at your own peril. But I think it will be a hell of a final. It will surely take 3:16 or better to beat the Russians this year.

[ATK]

The legs on the AR were 49.82, 49.17, 48.44, 48.08: in other words, each of the women who will run in London (no matter who they are) basically need to PR.... do you really think that that will happen? And to the level that's required? That is some major-league humping we're talking about.

Look at thoes splits again. If you match them up with McCrory, Demus, Felix, and SRR, in that order, that definitely does not seem unrealistic. Even so, give Demus a 50.00 instead of 49.17, that puts them in the 3.16 low area, which is what I said I think they can do.

Realistically though, considering what each of he ladies will be doing in London, I don't think its possible. With Felix and SRR both doubling, and Demus having to run the hurdles, and she would have to do the rounds and final of the 4x4.

[aaronk]

The legs on the AR were 49.82, 49.17, 48.44, 48.08: in other words, each of the women who will run in London (no matter who they are) basically need to PR.... do you really think that that will happen? And to the level that's required? That is some major-league humping we're talking about.

Just recently, there was a thread (I think I started it!!) in which we discussed 400 relay times.
Some people said that you can't accurately time a 400 leg in the 4X400 because of where the hand-offs take place (different for each leg), and because of where the 2nd leg cuts in, and so on.

So the times you quoted may or may not be EXACT 400 meter times. One might be 396 meters or so, while another may be 404. (Numbers are just for example, NOT accurate measurements!!)

But the bottom line in a 4X400 is that, no matter what actual distance each woman (or man) runs, the team AS A WHOLE runs EXACTLY 1600 meters!!
So if the final time is 3:16.00 for the women, that means the 4 women ran an AVERAGE of 49.00 per 400!!
Whether each individual woman ran 400 meters.....or more or less than 400 meters.......only matters to the split timers!!

But a team of Felix, SRR, McCorory, and Demus COULD run 3:16!! (I expect McCorory to go sub-50 next week!!!)

[gh]

....
Just recently, there was a thread (I think I started it!!) in which we discussed 400 relay times.
Some people said that you can't accurately time a 400 leg in the 4X400 because of where the hand-offs take place (different for each leg), and because of where the 2nd leg cuts in, and so on.

So the times you quoted may or may not be EXACT 400 meter times....

I assure you those times are right (or as right as they could be) but you're ignoring the basic math of the whole thing: you know the final time and the splits have to add up to that.

So if you think the anchor is too fast, by whatever you slow it down you speed up the leg(s) before it.

So long as the splits add up, this is an immutable rule.

[jazzcyclist]

Technically, you're only allowed to rest two peaple in the heats, but if you have a really deep team, you can rest three people. Case in point, in 2009, the first three legs in the heats ran so strong that Sanya was able to split 56s on the anchor which is basically a rest day for her. For this reason, I think it's imperative that the two people who will be running both rounds, run the third and fourth legs in the heats, so that they get the easy runs. Last year, Drummond ran Keisha Baker on anchor in the heats, despite the fact that he didn't use her in the final, while Jessica Beard ran the second leg in the heats and also ran the final. Also, don't waste Sanya on scratch leg, put McCrory on scratch leg. McCrory does a terrible job of pulling the incoming runner through the zone and she doesn't carry the baton securely. Additionally, Sanya's tactics are impeccable when she's running anchor; she never catches unnecessary wind and she never runs further than 400 meters, and all you have to do is go back and look at the 2008 final to see what I'm talking about.

[gh]

Technically, you're only allowed to rest two peaple in the heats, but if you have a really deep team, you can rest three people. Case in point, in 2009, the first three legs in the heats ran so strong that Sanya was able to split 56s on the anchor which is basically a rest day for her.....

No, rules allow for only two, and in '09, Dunn and Sanya ran both heats and final.

[jazzcyclist]

Technically, you're only allowed to rest two peaple in the heats, but if you have a really deep team, you can rest three people. Case in point, in 2009, the first three legs in the heats ran so strong that Sanya was able to split 56s on the anchor which is basically a rest day for her.....

No, rules allow for only two, and in '09, Dunn and Sanya ran both heats and final.

Did you read the second part of my post? What I was alluding to is the fact that in the heats, Sanya got the baton with such a big lead, that she had the luxury of splitting 56s and still winning the heat. 56s for Sanya is what I call "active rest", and from a physiological point of view, her day was probably as easy as Felix' and Demus' day.

[liuxuan]

put demus mccrory and trotter in the heat and see which two impress the most - whoever does best in the individual between mccrory and trotter should def be in the final

im all for demus being included, she has proven herself as a reliable sub 50 relay runner, and 400mH girls are always strong on relays - deon hemmings anyone?

as for the AR - could possibly be approached it really depends. Sanya has never done the 400/200 double before and we seen how felix split 49.5 last year after doubling, which is way downn on what we would normally expect.

I think both sanya and allyson will split around 48.5, if mccrory can lead off with 50.00 and demus does a sub 50 split that brings them in below 3:17 - not quite the AR but could be a record for the AF/SRR era

ps: do you think sanya gets competitive about whether she does a faster split than felix? i dont think allyson would give a toss personally but I know that Sanya is very stats orientated

[Gabriella]

I see SRR, Felix and McCrory as the best 3 legs, with the toss up between Trotter and Demus. I've never been hugely impressed by either of the latter two in relays. Both have run in numerous US races, where more often that not Trotter has been on the first leg, but we don't really have much to go on in international championships. Trotter was disappointing in Osaka and in her own event, Demus often goes out too hard and dies. She can't do that in a relay.

I would let Trotter and Demus fight for their place in the final in the relay heats and I would put them both on the middle two legs to make it as fair as possible to compare times.

On the US chances of breaking the WR (or AR), I see 3 of the 4 with the ability to run the necessary times, if pushed, but not a 4th woman. And let's not forget, in 1988 the USSR's top two, Nazarova and Bryzgina, did just the 400; they did not double like Felix and SRR are doing. This is significant. Add to that Pinigina was not even in the individual and 'rested' for the relay event, despite being world ranked 6th going into the Games with a 49.74, illustrating just how seriously the USSR were taking that relay.

On Russia's chance of challenging the US in London, Krivoshapka and Guschina are in tremendous form; Firova has PBed too - and can run good relay legs - but it's their 4th leg runner which could let them down. If they go with Nazarova, 4th in the nationals, I don't see her running well and has only ever really run a good relay leg once, Seville 99. I'd choose another runner over Nazarova and be tempted to rest Firova for the relay too, as it's likely she wont be a medal candidate in the individual. I would have been tempted to risk Fedoriva on the second leg, due to her great 200m form this season, but she's not entered in the 4x4.
Guschina - Fedoriva - Firova -Krivoshapka could have been a good team. It'll be interesting to see how the Russians load their team to counter act Felix on the second leg (or SRR on the first, if they do that again) Front loading has it's risks, but Guschina ran a great first leg in Beijing.

[iain]

[quote=jazzycyclist]Additionally, Sanya's tactics are impeccable when she's running anchor; she never catches unnecessary wind and she never runs further than 400 meters, and all you have to do is go back and look at the 2008 final to see what I'm talking about.[/quote]
Apart from at the world indoors :p Given Demus didn't run last year when she was in much better form, I doubt she'll run this year.

[DJG]

Don't be surprised if Dixon and Baker out of the 4x4 relay pool run the prelim in place
of SRR and AF. Who gets left out of the final? Will depend on what happens in their indiv-events.

[gh]

...
im all for demus being included, she has proven herself as a reliable sub 50 relay runner,...

She has? I believe the last international in which she broke 50 was 6 years ago (49.38 to anchor the '06 World Cup)

then 50.14 on the third leg at Berlin in '09

[j-a-m]

With Felix and SRR both doubling, and Demus having to run the hurdles, and she would have to do the rounds and final of the 4x4.

Yeah, that's the real issue here. With only two changes possible between prelims and final, and SRR and Felix most likely only running finals, Demus would have to run prelims on short rest. Then again, if she runs anchor in prelims, chances are the U.S. lead is big enough for her to relax.

[DCSIGMA]

The legs on the AR were 49.82, 49.17, 48.44, 48.08: in other words, each of the women who will run in London (no matter who they are) basically need to PR.... do you really think that that will happen? And to the level that's required? That is some major-league humping we're talking about.

DAMN them girls were running like THAT?.......

[liuxuan]

...
im all for demus being included, she has proven herself as a reliable sub 50 relay runner,...

She has? I believe the last international in which she broke 50 was 6 years ago (49.38 to anchor the '06 World Cup)

then 50.14 on the third leg at Berlin in '09

apologies, i should have worded that - a reliable relay runner who has run sub 50

[gennady]

Demus, or someone else - Russia anyway won!
And for why:
Trying to "reasonable" outcome prediction OG 4x400m women/men.
Two apparent leader of a rival.
Baseline data - PB/AT personal record.
SB-12 - the best result this season.
SP.PB - personal best split in relay.
SB.SP - personal best results in 400m in the same best split's season.
The difference between SB.SP - SP.PB says about the ability of the athlete to show the best result for the team, against the individual results.. Mobilizing factor.
Of course there is a difference in the improvement of the split due to the vanishing race but the influence of this factor is small. Mobilization factor anymore.
Dif. - Result in seconds.
First, all summed SB.SP, then summed SP.PB.
The difference between these two sums indicates the team left. Fighting the quality of the team. Mobilizing factor.
SB-12 - the best result this season in the bottom of this column, the amount of SB-12 team members.
This is the result of the alleged command.
Further is a "forecast".
Calculated as (sum of SB-12) - "Dif." This is the best possible result of the command. Potential.
Of course, this method estimates the maximum potential of the team and nothing more.
Nevertheless, based on objective results.

Russia
PB/AT SB-12 SB.SP SP.PB
49,16 49,16 50,55 50,30 Antonina Krivoshapka date SP.PB 03.09.2011
49,28 49,28 50,01 50,60 Yuliya Gushchina date SP.PB 23.08.2008
49,72 49,72 50,11 49,20 Tatyana Firova date SP.PB 23.08.2008
49,65 50,00 50,63 50,00 Natalya Nazarova date SP.PB 28.08.2004
3:17,81; 3:18,16; (201,30-200,10)=1,20 "forecast" 3:16,96.

USA
PB/AT SB-12 SB.SP SP.PB
48,70 49,28 49,00 48,43 Sanya Richards-Ross date SP.PB 23.08.2009
49,64 50,02 50,00 49,80 Deedee Trotter date SP.PB 28.08.2004
50,06 50,06 50,24 49,52 Francena McCorory date SP.PB 03.09.2011
49,59 49,59 49,70 48,00 Allyson Felix date SP.PB 02.09.2007
3:18,95; 3:20,14; (198,94-195,75)=3,19 "forecast" 3:15,76

Now to the "bare" arithmetic to add details of the Olympic tournament.
Felix: 3 rounds in the 100m, 200m, plus 3 rounds plus one round of 4x100.
Total seven races before the final 4h400m, the finale will be the eighth race.
Sanya: 6 laps in the 200/400m, 4x400 finals will be the seventh race.
Of course they are great athletes, but the greatness is the limit.
Felix: it can be safely reduced 0.85 to 0.25.
Sanya: it can be safely reduced 0.85 to 0.10.
So instead, we have not 3.19 but only 1.27
The real "forecast" is 3:18,95-1,27 = 3:17,68.

For all calculations, we (RUS) ahead with a very respectable margin.
Our girls(Rus) will do your (U.S.), in spite of Sanya and Allyson.

[t_monk]

One HUGE flaw in your calculations...... Allyson Felix.....

[gennady]

One HUGE flaw in your calculations...... Allyson Felix.....

Forgetfulness took an old settlement, to DQ Debbie Dunn!
He has made the correct changes to the previous post. Look again after editing.
Russia won no less than 0.5 seconds.

[t_monk]

One HUGE flaw in your calculations...... Allyson Felix.....

Forgetfulness took an old settlement, to DQ Debbie Dunn!
He has made the correct changes to the previous post. Look again after editing.
Russia won no less than 0.5 seconds.

Yup.... I actually agree.... the big problem with the US team is a doubling SRR and Felix.... Felix would have ran 3 rounds of 100, 3 rounds of 200 and the finals of the 4x100 prior to running a leg of the 4x400. While SRR would have ran 3 rounds of 400 and 3 rounds of 200 before running a leg of the 4x400.

[gh]

from where I sit the only way Russia can beat the U.S. is to ensure a mismatch on the first leg and get out in front so that the U.S. has to run more than 1600m.