London DL: m110H [non-DL]

[Grasshopper]

Any word on why Liu didn't run in the final?

[croflash]

Apparently he suffered a back injury.

The WR might be toast rather sooner than later, plenty of guys that are reasonably close.

[ATK]

The commentators mentioned something with his back.

Merrit equals his world lead and PB of 12.93. Its hard not to think Liu would have possibly dipped under 12.9.

[franknotes]

Merrit equals his world lead and PB of 12.93. Its hard not to think Liu would have possibly dipped under 12.9.

Not based on how he looked in the semi. For me Merritt is the clear favourite for the big one and in good conditions could run low 12.8 easily.

[ATK]

Merrit equals his world lead and PB of 12.93. Its hard not to think Liu would have possibly dipped under 12.9.

Not based on how he looked in the semi. For me Merritt is the clear favourite for the big one and in good conditions could run low 12.8 easily.

Fair enough, I didnt see the semi, I kind of just based it off his previous form this year.
But I agree Merrit is definitely the favorite. Hopefully Liu gets healthy, and does anyone know the status of Robles? When is the last time he even raced?

[franknotes]

Fair enough, I didnt see the semi, I kind of just based it off his previous form this year.
But I agree Merrit is definitely the favorite. Hopefully Liu gets healthy, and does anyone know the status of Robles? When is the last time he even raced?

I don't think I've seen him race since he screwed up Liu's gold medal run at last year's WCs. It would be great if the two of them were fit enough to duke it out with Merritt in the Olympic final (with someone in a buffer lane between the Chinese and the Cuban).

[Marlow]

Not based on how he looked in the semi. For me Merritt is the clear favourite for the big one and in good conditions could run low 12.8 easily.

That would be true, if it were as simple as just going 'faster', like a sprint, but that is not the case here. Trying to go faster can be disastrous. Low 12.8 not in the cards yet. 12.85 is in range for Liu, Merritt and possibly an in-form Robles. 12.80 and better requires something Mosesian, a new paradigm.

[jeremyp]

Liu certainly did not look injured so I supsect he was just running a warm up and decided not to push it.

[franknotes]

That would be true, if it were as simple as just going 'faster', like a sprint, but that is not the case here. Trying to go faster can be disastrous. Low 12.8 not in the cards yet. 12.85 is in range for Liu, Merritt and possibly an in-form Robles. 12.80 and better requires something Mosesian, a new paradigm.

The exact figure I had in mind was 12.83 (which to my mind is low 12.8). I think with better conditions we could have quite plausibly seen a WR or WR= this evening. I was hardly suggesting a 19.66>19.32 or a 9.69>9.58, but look at Sally Pearson's advance from an already world class PB of 12.50 or so to 12.28, albeit over shorter hurdles.

[ATK]

That would be true, if it were as simple as just going 'faster', like a sprint, but that is not the case here. Trying to go faster can be disastrous. Low 12.8 not in the cards yet. 12.85 is in range for Liu, Merritt and possibly an in-form Robles. 12.80 and better requires something Mosesian, a new paradigm.

The exact figure I had in mind was 12.83 (which to my mind is low 12.8). I think with better conditions we could have quite plausibly seen a WR or WR= this evening.

But you said easily. No one in this day and age can run sub 12.85 easily.

[franknotes]

But you said easily. No one in this day and age can run sub 12.85 easily.

I wasn't implying it would be done smoking a pipe and singing "It's Raining Men" but that it is, to me, easily conceivable.

[jeremyp]

I think it's premature to call Merritt the favorite unless Liu is injured. After watching Liu in Shanghai and Eugene he is at the top of his game and a great championship performer.

[Smoke]

This race is my shining example of why World Champs should include an prescribed number of world rankers as auto qualifiers. 13.18 just took 3rd in this race, and Ryan did not make the team. The depth in certain events for certain countries is astounding. The highs is just a gauntlet for Americans.

Aries is the clear favorite. Doesn't make him a lock, but by performance he is the gold favorite. He has proven he can defeat Liu, and his times and runs this year have proven he is fast enough. And I do not think Liu would have won this race today. Definitely not going away, which is what it would have taken to run 12.8x

[Alan Shank]

Aries is the clear favorite. Doesn't make him a lock, but by performance he is the gold favorite. He has proven he can defeat Liu, and his times and runs this year have proven he is fast enough. And I do not think Liu would have won this race today. Definitely not going away, which is what it would have taken to run 12.8x

Actually, Aries is 0-15 vs Liu at 110H. He did beat him in World Indoors.
Robles has three outings in 2012, 13.19, 13.47 (-1.7), 13.18.
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Woodland, CA, USA

[cladthin]

This race is my shining example of why World Champs should include an prescribed number of world rankers as auto qualifiers. 13.18 just took 3rd in this race, and Ryan did not make the team. The depth in certain events for certain countries is astounding. The highs is just a gauntlet for Americans.

Aries is the clear favorite. Doesn't make him a lock, but by performance he is the gold favorite. He has proven he can defeat Liu, and his times and runs this year have proven he is fast enough. And I do not think Liu would have won this race today. Definitely not going away, which is what it would have taken to run 12.8x

Nice time, congrats to you both.

OT a bit but it's good to see (from the recent Saucony video I think it was) an athlete in RW performing power cleans correctly unlike some other videos I've seen of a top female hurdler.

[Smoke]

Past records are irrelevant, I remember when folks swore by Asafa being 7-0 v Tyson. I also remember Aries had not beaten Liu until that indoor race. On form, Aries is the rightful favorite. Guarantees nothing, but it is rational and irrational to see him as the new favorite. His race mimics Liu's and his current consistency leads me to favor him in London.

Thanks Cladthin

[cladthin]

Past records are irrelevant, I remember when folks swore by Asafa being 7-0 v Tyson. I also remember Aries had not beaten Liu until that indoor race. On form, Aries is the rightful favorite. Guarantees nothing, but it is rational and irrational to see him as the new favorite. His race mimics Liu's and his current consistency leads me to favor him in London.

Thanks Cladthin

Smoke, a question for you. I see Ryan's blocks being very close to the line (looks about 1 1/2 feet length from the line to the front block) and with that his hips high at set. Is that so he will be "up" sooner or at least completely in his approach to H1? I suppose otherwise he might end up too close to H1?

[Smoke]

The spacing is an adjustment borne from switching to 7 steps.

The positioning is an ongoing evolution. To answer your specific question, no it is not to stand him up, we are not trying to get up sooner. Matter of fact let me go text him right now. you just reminded of a key point and an adjustment he needs to make. Again, thanks Clad

[cladthin]

Gotcha, so that set-up works well for the 7 steps. Thanks.

[18.99s]

It would be great if the two of them were fit enough to duke it out with Merritt in the Olympic final (with someone in a buffer lane between the Chinese and the Cuban).

They should arrange the lane assignments for 100h and 110h finals so that the top 2 or 3 seeded (based on semifinal placing and time) are not next to each other. Having neck-and-neck hurdlers right beside each other increases the probability of interference like what happened with Robles and Liu.

[franknotes]

They should arrange the lane assignments for 100h and 110h finals so that the top 2 or 3 seeded (based on semifinal placing and time) are not next to each other. Having neck-and-neck hurdlers right beside each other increases the probability of interference like what happened with Robles and Liu.

Not a bad idea at all. Something like, from lanes 1 to 8, 6-3-7-1-8-2-4-5 with the two slowest qualifiers between the top three seeds to maximise the benefits of the arrangement.