Election Odds


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Election Odds

Postby Marlow » Tue Jul 03, 2012 8:51 pm

Without involving any rancor, how will this election play out?

I predict:

It stays pretty even, but then Romney gets a little lead because of the stalled economy (the 'Mandate')

But, right at the end, there's a big shift back to Obama because of 'don't change horses in the middle of the stream' fears. Better to have the mediocre one (and I'm an Obama guy) than an Unknown (which, after all, Romney is, after all is said and done).

Obama 51%
Romney 45%
whatevers 4%

The Electoral College confirms it late into the night.
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Re: Election Odds

Postby JRM » Tue Jul 03, 2012 8:57 pm

Marlow wrote:Without involving any rancor, how will this election play out?

I predict:

It stays pretty even, but then Romney gets a little lead because of the stalled economy (the 'Mandate')

But, right at the end, there's a big shift back to Obama because of 'don't change horses in the middle of the stream' fears. Better to have the mediocre one (and I'm an Obama guy) than an Unknown (which, after all, Romney is, after all is said and done).

Obama 51%
Romney 45%
whatevers 4%

The Electoral College confirms it late into the night.


Obama will decimate Romney because people just aren't that stupid... are they? I mean, come on. Right?

In other words, the average Republican is notorious for voting against their own interests. The current crop of GOP has absolutely no interest in supporting the middle (or lower) class. By definition, the top 1% cannot decide a democratic election by themselves. So....

On edit: I didn't see your comment about invoking the Rancor. Sorry:

http://arts-wallpapers.com/movie_wallpa ... rancor.jpg
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Re: Election Odds

Postby JRM » Tue Jul 03, 2012 9:08 pm

On a more level-headed note, this election will be decided by the economy, and I think Obama will nail this in the end. The GOP has nothing except vitriol to throw at him. They offer no solutions, except undoing what his administration has done. The boogeyman of "European socialism" will wear thin, and will eventually (hopefully) be exposed for what it is (bunk).

At least I hope this will happen. But in the end, whatever it takes to allow the current course to fulfill its potential.
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Re: Election Odds

Postby Daisy » Tue Jul 03, 2012 10:40 pm

JRM wrote:Obama will decimate Romney because people just aren't that stupid... are they? I mean, come on. Right?

Exhibit A, Wisconsin. If it can happen there, why not nationally?

JRM wrote:The GOP has nothing except vitriol to throw at him.

Your vitriol is manna for others.
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Re: Election Odds

Postby Pego » Wed Jul 04, 2012 5:03 am

Daisy wrote:Exhibit A, Wisconsin. If it can happen there, why not nationally?


You ain't kidding :mrgreen: .
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Re: Election Odds

Postby Conor Dary » Wed Jul 04, 2012 7:05 am

Daisy wrote:
JRM wrote:Obama will decimate Romney because people just aren't that stupid... are they? I mean, come on. Right?

Exhibit A, Wisconsin. If it can happen there, why not nationally?


Walker and his pals the Koch brothers outspent Bennet by about 9 to 1. While Obama will be outspent, it will be more like 1.2 to 1.

Also I have to agree with 'Axis of Evil' author David Frum:

    The Republican Plan B is to repeal Obamacare on Day 1 of a Romney presidency.

    Good luck with that.

    First, today's Supreme Court decision will make it a lot harder to elect Mitt Romney. President Obama has just been handed a fearsome election weapon. 2012 is no longer exclusively a referendum on the president's economic management. 2012 is now also a referendum on Mitt Romney's healthcare plans. The president can now plausibly say that a vote for the Republicans is a vote to raise prescription drug costs on senior citizens and to empower insurance companies to deny coverage to children for pre-existing conditions. Those charges will hurt—and maybe hurt enough to sway the election.

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2 ... ntasy.html
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Re: Election Odds

Postby Friar » Wed Jul 04, 2012 6:49 pm

because people just aren't that stupid

No, they're even more stupid. Right now I'm hearing lots of really smart people saying some really dumb things. And I'm not talking about talk radio. I think theres a hidden vote for Romney (+5) that's more or less embarrassed to say that they despise the President.

Marlowe's scenario sounds about right to me but I'm not convinced Obama pulls this out. One of the interesting swing states to watch is NH which is one of Romney's five "home" states.
It's filled with Rep. leaning Independents. Obama's at a +5 but I'm not buying it.
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Re: Election Odds

Postby Dave » Thu Jul 04, 2013 12:28 am

Marlow wrote:Without involving any rancor, how will this election play out?

I predict:

It stays pretty even, but then Romney gets a little lead because of the stalled economy (the 'Mandate')

But, right at the end, there's a big shift back to Obama because of 'don't change horses in the middle of the stream' fears. Better to have the mediocre one (and I'm an Obama guy) than an Unknown (which, after all, Romney is, after all is said and done).

Obama 51%
Romney 45%
whatevers 4%


The Electoral College confirms it late into the night.


You got this pretty close. Better than most of our track predictions.
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Re: Election Odds

Postby Marlow » Thu Jul 04, 2013 4:40 am

Dave wrote:
Marlow wrote:Without involving any rancor, how will this election play out?

I predict:

It stays pretty even, but then Romney gets a little lead because of the stalled economy (the 'Mandate')

But, right at the end, there's a big shift back to Obama because of 'don't change horses in the middle of the stream' fears. Better to have the mediocre one (and I'm an Obama guy) than an Unknown (which, after all, Romney is, after all is said and done).

Obama 51%
Romney 45%
whatevers 4%


The Electoral College confirms it late into the night.


You got this pretty close. Better than most of our track predictions.

Yeah, but Romney was very proactive in making sure he lost. After the buffoonery that was the the Republican Debates (Jon Stewart's comedy show only had to replay actual quotes to make it hysterical), Romney never recovered from foot-in-mouth disease. Obama played it cool, close to the vest, and won on the 'fewer mistakes' principle.
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Re: Election Odds

Postby Dave » Thu Jul 04, 2013 9:31 am

Marlow wrote:
Dave wrote:
Marlow wrote:Without involving any rancor, how will this election play out?

I predict:

It stays pretty even, but then Romney gets a little lead because of the stalled economy (the 'Mandate')

But, right at the end, there's a big shift back to Obama because of 'don't change horses in the middle of the stream' fears. Better to have the mediocre one (and I'm an Obama guy) than an Unknown (which, after all, Romney is, after all is said and done).

Obama 51%
Romney 45%
whatevers 4%


The Electoral College confirms it late into the night.


You got this pretty close. Better than most of our track predictions.

Yeah, but Romney was very proactive in making sure he lost. After the buffoonery that was the the Republican Debates (Jon Stewart's comedy show only had to replay actual quotes to make it hysterical), Romney never recovered from foot-in-mouth disease. Obama played it cool, close to the vest, and won on the 'fewer mistakes' principle.


Obama had a brilliant ground game. His campaign was far more effective at getting his voters to the polls.
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Re: Election Odds

Postby Marlow » Thu Jul 04, 2013 10:17 am

Dave wrote:Obama had a brilliant ground game. His campaign was far more effective at getting his voters to the polls.

I find that an apt metaphor. He established a solid ground game (grass-roots politicking) and mixed in a down-field air attack (grandiose rhetoric).
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Re: Election Odds

Postby Flumpy » Thu Jul 04, 2013 11:21 am

And he wasn't a complete c*nt.

That helped.
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Re: Election Odds

Postby Helen S » Thu Jul 04, 2013 11:35 am

Flumpy wrote:And he wasn't a complete c*nt.

That helped.


Oh my, Flumpy. Surely you did meant "can't'" in your statement, and in your haste left out the apostrophe?
Or maybe "cent"? Not sure how that fits.

Or if you meant what I think you meant, I call for an apology to around one half of the population of humans on the earth. If you cannot do so before this section closes, I implore GH to allow you extra time to do so before you get what I fear may be a time out.
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